Remaining on course if Wednesday is redHere is the best estimate of where we could be now. Minor 4 lasted a little longer than forecasted but managed the moves up and down in line with historical models. It is possible Minute waves 1 and 2 inside of Minor wave 5 have already completed. If that is the case this is the plan for Minute wave 3. I have kept the Intermediate wave 5 levels to the far right, and the Minor wave 5 levels to the far left. The levels to watch for Minute wave 3 are in the middle as this is the short-term target. Minute wave 4 is a pure estimate with zero supporting data for its location at the moment. The hour markers at the top of the chart is the target zone for Minor wave 5 to finish between (which also ends Intermediate wave 5).
Minute wave 3 could last 5-12 hours based on all models. The tighter models have it around 6-8 hours. The movement targets based on most specific historical data sets are in pink. The median and maximum are around 4330 for the bottom. Minimum move is below 4356. The light blue models are slightly less specific historical data with quartile estimates at 4372.61, 4654.45, and 3rd quartile at 4326.75. The broadest dataset has quartile bottoms at 4370.16, median at 4352.58, and the third quartile was near 4328.
THIS WEEK
If this all plays out, it looks like tomorrow is a down day with the Minute wave 4 reprieve to occur briefly on Thursday before more red ink through the end of Thursday and possibly into Friday. The initial target low around 4240 seems further out of reach if the end of wave 3 is only at 4330. A drop to 4330 tomorrow would only be a 1.3% loss. Depending on the cause, if it happens, the market could go further. For now I will raise the final Intermediate wave 3 bottom up toward 4395 but still likely to occur midday Friday.
THEORY BUSTERS
A rise above 4400 tomorrow would alter the path and analysis. A rise above 4418.59 would place use back in Minor wave 4 upward or somewhere completely different.
