Bitcoin Bubble Comparison It is happening faster this time because it is so obvious where we are going in the next couple years
Historyrepeatsitself
So this is it? C'mon, seriously now...See how the Chaikin below seems to align with the points above.
*Note: I'm still hoping for a crash down to 5,400-5,800 but I may be wrong if the tide has already begun to turn...
The History of Vericoin Vericoin started in 2014, essentially as a Blackcoin clone (if memory serves). The development team (Patrick Nosker, Doug Pike, and David Boehm) has been very active over the years and still all work on the project.
And the price: Looking at the chart, you will see five (5) price bubbles I am calling attention to since 2014. Since then, the price has never really dropped below 2000 sats, and bottoms are typically found around 4500 (the red accumulation rectangle). These bubble cycles vary, but seem to last around 1 year; we are currently around half a year on the downward trend of a cycle. If you were to average in between 4500 and 2000 sats on your buys, you would have an average buy in price of 3250. Based on the history and using 3250 as a base, this coin has a high likelihood of a jump to at least 200%. I see at least 5 times it has entered and exited the accumulation zone and hit this 6500 level. Additionally, I see 10 times it has broken the 13000 level (400%), and Four of the Five aforementioned bubbles have broken the 26000 level (800%).
This is not investment advice, but the history is evident. Do your own research and good luck trading.
Re-Drawing Peaks and Troughs: BIG DROP, Rebound, then Sideways?Similar price action, similar declining volume, similar Chande Momentum Oscillator. Maybe...
RVGI Has Turned UP, So... BOTTOMED?Similar price action, and RVGI has similarly turned up. Well... let's see
Will This Be the "PAINFUL GOLDEN" Week?Another way to look at 2013-2015 bear compared to today... Hmmm... Never know
But IF YES... expect a PAINFUL plunge before any reversal, similar to the chart shown (based on this chart, should go to 5,400)
NOT done yet! This... -->>Same or different? "Failed" triangle doesn't mean a failure in BTC? Let's see...
Why We Still MIGHT Go LOWER, Because...Very similar past price-action and quite similar RVGI. Let's wait for RVGI to turn up
*This is a counter-alternative to my relatively-bullish view in my other chart (coz yes, TA doesn't predict, only shows possible scenarios)
BTCUSD 2018 & 2014 - undeniable similarities - All in at $3000Chart says it all - History repeats itself.
If you can't properly recognize the details on the right chart, zoom in. I had to zoom out when analyzing, as otherwise all the details wouldn't have fit on the window.
I've also tried to find some similarities on the time axis, but there are none. The only thing that stands out is that things are moving way quicker than back in 2014.
According to this, I expect $3000 to be hit either in between July and September. Take into consideration that a reversal NEVER happens with just one candle - so do not expect an immediate bull run. When seeing a trend reversal there is almost always a double bottom being built. As we're here speaking of a daily timeframe, this could take another few weeks/months. However, this does not mean that we can't buy the bottom at 3k - we just should be aware of the high chances that this level will be tested once again before really skyrocketing and repeating its cycle once again.
Safe trades!
August 2018: ONLY IF history repeats itself in this way...UPDATE based on last post: Using the 2013 to 2015 time-frame extrapolated into this wave's similar but shorter span, we should re-touch the previous all-time-high (approximately 19,500) by end of August or early September 2018. (Again, this is ONLY if history repeats itself)
Recall from my last post:
We keep seeing mirror images of the 2014 bear market playing out now. But what if (just if) it has indeed played out, but a bit differently from the common mirror images we've seen? As in this?
*I know it's a long shot, but never know! (Isn't all TA long shot?)
*As you can see from my recent days' posts, I have both bull and bear scenarios, this is just a bullish possibility... (so in a way "yes," TA doesn't predict)
*ONLY IF this is true... that would explain the chop-chop limbo we're in right now. You'll notice that the 2014 reversal wasn't "dramatic" or quick or powerful... but a very gradual chop-chop till it reversed.
2014 Repeat is Already DONE in Shorter Span? THIS...We keep seeing mirror images of the 2014 bear market playing out now. But what if (just if) it has indeed played out, but a bit differently from the common mirror images we've seen? As in this?
*I know it's a long shot, but never know! (Isn't all TA long shot?)
*As you can see from my recent days' posts, I have both bull and bear scenarios, this is just a bullish possibility... (so in a way "yes," TA doesn't predict)
*ONLY IF this is true... that would explain the chop-chop limbo we're in right now. You'll notice that the 2014 reversal wasn't "dramatic" or quick or powerful... but a very gradual chop-chop till it reversed.
GBPJPY pattern repetition. Quasi-identicalcheck the circles. It's presenting a pattern very similar. Expecting a repetetion of that storyGB
History Does NOT Repeat Itself?Yesterday I showed similar patterns which may suggest that history might repeat itself. Today I show how it might not be true either, with super similar patterns which ended up in opposite direction.
So you may apply this for both past bullish patterns and past bearish patterns. If you're bullish, you may use this to say that the similarity to 2014's chart doesn't mean we'll have a repeat of that. If you're bearish, you may use this to say that my chart yesterday won't result in a reversal at 5,400.
In any case, it's interesting!
Update: History TO REPEAT in a BIGGER Way?Similar to past pattern... you decide. (Update from yesterday)
To be clear, I'm quite confident in the move to point 6 or near point 6, not the reversal at point 6 (which may or may not happen).
*But if it does reverse, it will happen *near but before or slightly after* point 6, not at 6 itself. Why? People will freak out scared if it touches exactly point 6 again so it would go lower for sure (then either plunge further and worsen the bear market, or reverse). Or, if sentiment turns bullish, they'd buy right before it touches point 6 and the reversal would happen there.
EOSBTC 6 hour chart, history repeating itself here?Dear whoever you may be stumbling on this analysis.
I do like to share more and more from my chart analysis as I my confidence grows looking back to some unpublished TA's I have done. Most of them are pretty damn good, but why and how is so much harder than just getting it right.
I like reading patterns. I also enjoy seeing masterminds publishing their ideas. There's so much to learn and in so many ways to analys the market. What I do know for sure is:
A. Understand the method you are using in depth before trusting it fully
B. Everything repeats itself eventually
C. Trust your instinct
D. Don't forget that the majority of traders most probably has come to the same conclusion as you, hence RES / SUP
So, explaining my fort this chart is easy. I am using Fib Retr, Volumes, MACD and trend lines WITH a glance to the past. I started with using a lower trend line and then followed up with the most recent H/L for a Fib Retr. Looks pretty good so far, support and resistance in accordance with Fib. So now what? What is the purpose of this? As you may see my previous buy area, I am interested in seeing when I should be buying next time? So I started looking back, the history of EOS and sure enough I personally think and see a repeating pattern. The lines, the volumes and the MACD. Can it be as simple as this? Why not? If I am right, most probably the more experienced traders already have this figured out and they are just letting the market do what it's suppose to do.
Conclusion:
I am setting a buy limit where the price crosses lower trend line, major support line at 0.5 fib and also combining this with previous similar pattern (yellow triangles).
What do you guys think? Love to get some feedback. Cheers
Ps. Screen shot of my new buy in area.
Hate to Say It: Bull Trap Til 12K ??I hate to say it, but without a big fundamental catalyst when it nears 12K, it could be a bull trap and then resumption of the bear market. Not only is the pattern very similar, but even the stochastic RSI is almost identical. I want it bullish too, but just sayin... be suspect of this rally until we clearly break 12K!
BITCOIN 2014 CRASH COMPARED WITH 2018 (HISTORY MAY REPEAT AGAIN)Short Version:
If history repeats nearly 100%...
Price reverse 9000 - 9200 resistance level
1.618 fib extension + fib extension cross uptend line from Begining of 2017
High volume confirms all above
Lowest point of BTC is 4700 - 4900
If History repeats 90% or something...
Price reverse 8000 - 8200 resistance level
1.618 fib extension of the above resistance will be the lowest
Lowest point of BTC is 5300 - 5500
There is a possibility that history repeats 80% or something which cause this last drop
not to happen But i believe that nearly 100% of history may repeat in this case.
Please note that i mention history repeat percentages here to make it easier for you
to understand the graphs as some price movements may not happen as same as the last time.
But there is no such way to find the exact percentage of the history repeats
Long Version:
Comparing the current BTC situation with 2014 BTC crash shows that there is more probability
that BTC can go upto the resistance zone before it start crashing again over the down trend
line all the way down down to 4700 - 4900
This lowest point can be confirmed with these:
-History Repeats most of the time but not 100%. Which means the current price can go lower again
like it did in 2014 after reaching the resistance.
-If above become true then the 1.618 Fib Extension of the Resistance can take BTC down to
4700 - 4900.
-Uptrend line which acts as a support cross the fib extension.
Which is the area that the BTC reached the bottom in 2014.Uptrend line from beginging of 2017
crosses the 1.618 area most likely the lowest point of BTC
-Volume profile got more volume at fib 1.618 extension level in 2014 & 2018 as well which
confirms all above.
If History repeats 90% or something and BTC dont go upto the above Resistance level of 9000 - 9200
and start crashing from 8000 - 8200 resistance level then the price can go down to 1.618
Fib extension level which is 5300 - 5500.
If History repeats 80% or something then price might not go down and start going up but
I believe that History will repeat nearly 100%... this time as all the way down BTC 2017-2018
line graph is almost exactly same as 2014 crash with minor differences.
Please note that i mention history repeat percentages here to make it easier for you
to understand the graphs as some price movements may not happen as same as the last time.
But there is no such way to find the exact percentage of the history repeats
CAPITULATION IS YET TO COMEBTC is currently fighting it's way up and forming a rising channel.
I'm personally expecting a pop up within the next few days.
History loves to repeat itself.
That's why I expect the upcoming upwardsmomentum to be the final leg up, before we have capitulation taking place.
Notice how during March the exact same channel has been formed after price boomed to the upside.
We have a similar declining trendline forming right now (blue line) and it's very likely that BTC will break through, causing a further push to the upside.
BUT!
I do not expect this to be the trendreversal everybody's anticipating.
Capitulation is yet to come.
In case you've read my previews analysis, you might have noticed that I'm pretty confident about market cycles and that they always repeat themselves.
Capitulation is needed, if we want a new (bull) cycle to begin.
We haven't witnessed that yet.
You might wanna take notice that there COULD be a reason, why Wall Street professionals rely on market cycles ;)
Anyways..
In terms of BTC price behavior, you should observe the blue, declining trendline.
Once we break through, I'm personally aiming for a long position until we reach 8450-8600 level.
This is where I'm going to take short positions.
Chart explains why.
Also notice (AGAIN!) the similarities between now and 2014:
It should be obvious to you what's happening right now.
This does not exclude that I'm wrong.
I could be.
As a trader, you want the probabilities to be in your favour.
Right now, the probabilities are pointing towards capitulation.
I'm going to change my strategy, if the probabilities point towards a new bull run, which is not the case right now.
Wish you guys happy trading, I'm going to keep you updated.
Regards
Shaheen
Potcoin Historical Price Rise and Drop on 4/20 Cannabis HolidayIn 2016 and 2017 Potcoin has a nice little pump up until about 4/16-4/18 and then it drops in value right before and during the big Cannabis Holiday 4/20. I wonder if History will repeat itself for a 3rd year.
Well it's almost time. Brittney Spears Last Strain Of HairHave been waiting for some time now to get back into these markets. My notifications on my phone went off yesterday warning me that BTC was under 6900.
The time has come! There is still more correction ahead, but this is so great for BTC. We might just skip a correction during summer and go on a bull run.
Now check out this momentum graph at the bottom.. What do you notice about it?
1) The momentum on both ends are narrowing and BTC is finding it's way to equilibrium. Our goal is to find that lower momentum area that is going to touch the low.
2) Notice the steepness on the bounces, and the reversals. The steepness of this momentum graph shows us that right now it's not time. I see sideways action for quite sometime now... but we will hit that bottom soon.
Here is a graph I made a couple months ago! The prediction was scary accurate.
History always repeats!! I'm not an expert!
May The Trends Be With You
