Page 3 | Homebuilders — Trading Ideas on TradingView

TRADE IDEA OF THE WEEK IN KB HOME INC KBH!Overall we are seeing some weakness in the market right now. Something that we're seeing is a lot of the sector/stocks have rejected the 21 period moving average, which tells me that there's a somewhat good chance that we might go test the lows that were created 2 weeks ago. This stock KB HOME INC is an example of a stock that has rejected that 21 period moving average shown by the green line on the chart! If the market continues to show overall weakness this week, then this is a high probability setup to move lower and that's what we're banking on here. Really the only sector that looks strong to us right now is the Semiconductor/Technology Sector. Stocks like NVDA, AMAT, ON, MU, etc. held up the market today from being even worse. Good luck to you all!

Real Estate 8/9/2016 Looks like it's gonna drop.

American Woodmark (AMWD) Radical EPS Forecast Hikes American Woodmark (AMWD) has had the EPS forecast hiked from $0.55 just 30 days ago, to $0.57 within the last few days. The EPS has increased by +150% quarter over quarter and revenue has been uptrending for 5 years now. The stock has been in an uptrend since June of 2014 and it continues to power higher on the catalyst that improved home sales and remodeling will continue as the U.S. economy slowly improves. What's equally impressive is that the company continues to improve gross margin. The company sits on a $162 million pile of cash, with only $21.7 million in debt. The stock trades in the Home Furnishings and Fixtures industry which is on fire right now. Source: www.guerillastocktrading.com

Lumber is Sinking – Is Housing Next?Earlier this month, the idea of lumber being a signal for economic data was brought to the table (here). Lumber is not necessarily a trader’s first go-to for evaluating economic forecasts, but there is a striking resemblance in trend for lumber and the ISM manufacturing PMI data. As lumber prices dive, manufacturing data tends to do the same (and vice versa). Lumber, reasonably so, is also correlated to housing; and the US cannot have a recovery without housing participating. The housing data over the last few years has been lackluster, and today’s data is no exception. Housing starts contracted a whopping 17 percent. That’s 14.5 percent lower than general forecasts. Weather was cold, and it is always to blame. However, analysts were already discounting the weather issue. Wall Street’s best and brightest were looking for a drop of only 2.5 percent, so clearly it is not just the weather. According to the US Department of Housing and Urban Development, privately-owned housing starts were seasonally-adjusted at an annual rate of 897,000, or 17 percent below the revised January estimate. Single-family housing starts in February were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 697,000, or 14.9 percent below the revised January estimate. Not good. Housing completions of privately-owned housing fell came in at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 850,000, or 13.8 percent below the revised January estimate of 986,000. The “recovery” bulls will harp on the permits data which was three percent higher than the general consensus. But, let’s be objective. Permits do not particularly matter much because builders cannot sell permits. Building permits are also cyclical. They tend to rise to elevated levels on optimistic outlooks but then completely collapse right be for the next recession. Permits could continue to rise, but it is not indicative of a healthy housing sector, or economy for that matter. umber has closed well-below the massive ascending channel created when prices bottomed in 2009. Currently trading at $270.90, lumber prices are down almost 14 percent since first bring more attention to lumber a month ago. The basic assumption is that low prices are great for builders and the housing sector in general, and they are at the margin. However, a trend shift in prices indicate that homebuilders are not purchasing lumber. Homebuilder confidence fell for a third consecutive month in March. Prices saw a bit of support at $265 but could easily hit $245 on trend continuation. To illustrate the correlation of lumber to housing, check out lumber prices relative to the iShares DJ Home Construction ETF (ITB) and the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB). It’s not a perfect match, but it grasps the overall trend quite well. Notice the prices of lumber, ITB, XHB leading into the housing crisis – they collapsed. This time should be no different. The two popular ETFs now trade at a premium to lumber prices, but the upward trajectory is stalling; and this is far likely contributed to Fed-induced buying (similar to the XLE and future prices). It is only a matter of time before housing ETFs begin to rollover, too. Please check out bullion.directory for up-to-date news and analysis on precious metals, market sentiment, economics and central bank folly.

DHI cup&handle The stock was leading during the first half of 2013 but then caught some downside. Stock found bottom around $18 then regained its 200 EMA above $20 with nice follow through to $25. Now it is flagging (handle) above 200EMA and on Friday broke up and looks ready to continue. Stock is pretty slow on daily basis, so it is in my long term buy watchlist with entry here at $23.25 and reasonable stop below $21. i will add if it will go through $25 resistance and expect to see it is testing highs in the mid $27 with some follow through. So, I will put my target at $30