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How to Identify a Bearish Reversal in Gold Trading In this article, I will explain to you 4 efficient strategies to identify a bearish reversal with technical analysis in Gold trading. You will learn price action, SMC and technical indicator strong bearish signals. First, let me remind you that different bearish signals may indicate a different magnitude and a degree of a potential reversal. While some signals will be reliable for predicting short term reversals, some will be more accurate in projecting long-term ones. One more thing to note is that one of the best time frames for bearish reversal confirmations on Gold is the daily . So, all the cases that will be explained will be on a daily time frame strictly. XAUUSD Bearish Reversal Signal 1 - Bearish Price Action Pattern. One of the perfect indicators of the overbought state of a bullish trend on Gold is bearish price action patterns. I am talking about classic horizontal neckline based patterns like head & shoulders, inverted cup & handle, double/triple top and descending triangle. Typically, these patterns leave early bearish clues and help to predict a coming downturn movement. A strong bearish signal is a breakout of a horizontal neckline of the pattern and a candle close below. The price may continue falling at least to the next key support then. Above is the example of a head and shoulders pattern on Gold, on a daily. Its formation was the evidence of the overheated market. Bearish breakout of its neckline confirmed that, and the price continued falling. Bearish Reversal Signal 2 - Rising Channel Breakout. When the market is trading in a healthy bullish trend, it usually starts moving with the boundaries of a rising channel. It can be the expanding, parallel or contracting channel. Its support will represent a strong vertical structure, from where new bullish waves will initiate after corrections. Its breakout will quite accurately indicate a change of a market sentiment and a highly probable bearish reversal. Look at this rising parallel channel on Gold chart on a daily. The market was respecting its boundaries for more than 3 months. A bearish violation of its support was an accurate bearish signal that triggered a strong bearish movement. Bearish Reversal Signal 3 - Change of Character & Bearish Price Action. One of the main characteristics of a bullish trend is the tendency of the market to set new higher highs and higher lows. Each final high of each bullish impulse is always higher than the previous. Each final low of each bearish movement is also higher than the previous. In such a price action, the level of the last higher low is a very significant point. The violation of that and a formation of a new low is an important event that is called Change of Character CHoCH. It signifies the violation of a current bullish trend. After that, one should pay attention to a consequent price action, because CHoCH can easily turn into just an extended correctional movement. If the market sets a lower high and a new lower low then, it will confirm the start of a new bearish trend. That is the example of a confirmed Change of Character on Gold on a daily. To validate the start of a new bearish trend, we should let the price set a lower high and a form a bearish impulse with a new lower low. Bearish Reversal Signal 4 - Death Cross. Death cross is a strong long-term bearish reversal signal that is based on a crossover of 2 moving averages. On a daily time frame, it is usually based on a combination of 2 Simple Moving Averages: one with 50 length and one with 200 length. The signal is considered to be confirmed when a 50 length SMA crosses below 200 length SMA. It is commonly believed that it signifies that the market enters a long-term bearish trend. On the chart, I plotted 2 Moving Averages. When the blue one crosses below the orange one, a global bearish trend on Gold will be confirmed The 4 bearish signals that we discussed will be useful for predicting short term, mid term and long term bearish reversals on Gold. While price action patterns will indicate local bearish movements, Death Cross will confirm a global trend change. Learn to recognize all the signals that we discussed to make more accurate trading and investing decisions. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️

Best Lot Size For Scalping, Day Trading, Swing Trading GOLD What is the best lot size for scalping, day trading, swing trading Gold XAUUSD? In the today's article, I will explain to you how to calculate a lot size for trading Gold for any trading strategy and trading style. As the example, I will measure lot sizes for 500$, 1000$, 10000$ XAUUSD trading accounts. Scalping Gold For scalping Gold, traders commonly apply 5m/15m time frames. In order to calculate the lot size for 5 minutes time frame trading, you will need to back test your trading strategy and find at least 5 trades that meet the rules of your trading strategy. But remember that the more trades you will back test, the better and the safer lot size you will calculate. You will need to underline the entry point and a stop loss for each trade. Then you will need to measure stop loss value of every trade in pips. Then, find the trade with the biggest stop loss in pips. In our example, the biggest stop loss is 353 pips. Open a position size calculator for Gold. As an example, we will apply some free position size calculator. Fill all the inputs. As a risk ratio, input 2%. Our best lot size for scalping Gold on 5 minutes time frame will be: 0.03 lot with 500$ trading account. 0.06 lot with 1000$ trading account. 0.57 lot with 10000$ trading account. With such a lot size, your potential risk will not exceed 2% of your trading account balance and the average risk will be close to 1%. For scalping Gold on 15 minutes time frame, find at least 5 trades based on your trading strategy rules. The biggest stop loss in 600 pips. Please, note that the higher is the time frame, the bigger are the stop losses in pips. It means that higher time frame trading requires bigger account balance than lower time frame trading. Apply XAUUSD position size calculator to measure a lot size for 15m trading. Our best lot size for scalping Gold on 15 minutes time frame will be: 0.02 lot with 500$ trading account. 0.03 lot with 1000$ trading account. 0.33 lot with 10000$ trading account. Day Trading Gold Common time frame for day trading Gold are 30M and 1H. Find at least 5 trading setups on 30 minutes time frame and measure stop loss in pips. The biggest stop loss in our example is 997 pips. According to XAUUSD position size calculator, best lot size for day trading Gold on 30 minutes time frame will be: 0.01 lot with 500$ trading account. 0.02 lot with 1000$ trading account. 0.2 lot with 10000$ trading account. The same logic will be applied on an hourly time frame. Among 5 trading setups in the example above, the biggest stop loss is 1500 pips. 500$ trading account will not be enough to control risks below 2%. You will need at least 1000$ for day trading Gold on an hourly time frame with such stop losses. Using Gold position size calculator, here are the best lot sizes for trading on 1H: 0.01 lot with 1000$ trading account. 0.13 lot with 10000$ trading account. Swing Trading Gold The main time frames for swing trading gold are 4H and Daily. In our example, the biggest stop loss is 2800 pips. 1000$ account will not be enough for taking such a trade with 2% risk. Taking the trade with minimal 0.01 lot, the risk will be 28$ or 2.8% of 1000. Using XAUUSD lot size calculator, the best lot size for swing trading on a 4H will be: 0.07 lot with 10000$ trading account. Before you start trading on a real account, you should know exactly your risks in pips. Knowing the biggest stop loss will help you to carefully measure the safest lot size for your trading style. Make sure that you have sufficient balance to not exceed 2% risk per trade and analyze as many past trading setups as possible. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️

Profitable Gold Price Action Strategy For Beginners To trade this Gold price action strategy, you need to learn just 2 simple things: support and resistance levels identification a couple of bullish and bearish price action patterns. In this article, I will share with you a complete guide for Gold trading with price action and reveal the best patterns for XAUUSD. Step 1 Your First task will be to execute complete structure analysis on a daily time frame. It means that you should identify all vertical and horizontal supports and resistances. From structure supports, we will look for buying opportunities. From structure resistances, we will look for selling the market. Above, you can see how a complete Gold support and resistance analysis should look. Step 2 Patiently wait for the test of one of these structures. In the example above, we see a test of Support. Step 3 Your next task will be to look for a price action pattern on an hourly time frame on one of these structures. You should look for a bullish pattern after a test of a structure support. You should look for a bearish pattern after a test of a structure resistance. Here is the list of classic bullish patterns that you should look for: falling wedge, bullish flag, double bottom, triple bottom, inverted head & shoulders pattern, cup & handle, ascending triangle. Once you identified a bullish pattern, simply wait for a signal - with horizontal patterns like a double bottom or cup & handle you should wait for a bullish breakout of its neckline - an hourly candle close above. With vertical patterns like a bullish flag or a falling wedge, you should look for a bullish breakout of its trend line - and hourly candle close above. Here is the list of classic bearish patterns that you should look for: rising wedge, bearish flag, double top, triple top, head & shoulders pattern, inverted cup & handle, descending triangle. Once you identified a bearish pattern, simply wait for a signal - with horizontal patterns like a double top or inverted cup & handle you should wait for a bearish breakout of its neckline - an hourly candle close below. With vertical patterns like a bearish flag or a rising wedge, you should look for a bearish breakout of its trend line - and hourly candle close below. Sometimes there will be the situation when you will encounter multiple patterns. The rule is that the more - the better. Above, we can see 2 bullish patterns on an hourly time frame, after a test of a key daily support on Gold: bullish flag pattern and cup & handle. The price broke the resistance line of the flag and a neckline of a cup & handle, giving us a strong bullish signal. Step 4 Open a trading position. Once you spotted a bearish pattern after a test of a key daily resistance, and a signal - a bearish breakout of a neckline or a trend line, sell Gold on a retest of a broken neckline/trend line. Stop loss will lie above the highs of the patterns. Take profit will be the closest 4H support. Once you spotted a bullish pattern after a test of a key daily support, and a signal - a bullish breakout of a neckline or a trend line, buy Gold on a retest of a broken neckline/trend line. Stop loss will lie below the lows of the pattern. Take profit will be the closest 4H resistance. In our example, a long position was opened on Gold on a retest of a broken neckline of a cup & handle formation. Stop loss lies below the lows, TP based on a 4H resistance. After some time, the price reached the target! This Gold price action strategy is simple and very profitable. Try this strategy by your own and good luck in trading Gold! ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️

GOLD Trading: 8 Mistakes Traders MUST Avoid in a Bull Market The unstoppable uptrend on Gold may cause irrational and very costly decisions . For the past 6 months, we've seen an unprecedented surge, with new highs being set almost daily. In this article, we will discuss critical mistakes that traders often make in the midst of such a bullish run and explore the strategies to maximize your gains. 1. Technical Indicators Lie Always remember that technical indicators that measure the momentum or strength of a market trend, that show the overbought and oversold conditions, fail miserably in strong bullish or bearish rallies. I am talking about such indicators as Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving average convergence/divergence, Stochastic, etc. The fact that one of these indicators show overbought condition or even a bullish divergence most of the time will be a false signal. Above is the example of an overbought RSI on Gold chart on a daily. After the market became overbought, it went 1000 pips higher before the first pullback. 2. It is Never too High When the market starts setting new all-time highs, people typically start saying that the price is already "too high" and start closing their long positions or even open short positions. Remember, that the notion of too high is very subjective. Look at a bullish rally on Gold in 2020. I well remember that when the market updated a yearly high in April, People start staying that it is already "too high". However, the market kept rallying for 4 consequent months, constantly updating the highs. Such a market behavior may persist for a significant period of time, be prepared for that. 3. Beware of Overconfidence Even though bullish rallies may be long, always remember that they can not last forever. At some moment, correction or even bearish reversal will occur. For that reason, open long positions carefully, setting realistic targets. 4. Protect Your Gains and Maximize Your Profits When the market is trading in the uncharted territory, it is almost impossible to predict where it will find the resistance. With a take profit level, you may close the trade too soon. If you see that the market is driven by euphoria and keeps setting new all-time highs, remove take profit and apply a trailing stop instead. Keep that below the recent supports, use ATR or some other classic technical tool. That will help you to benefit from the entire rally. 5. DON'T SELL BULLISH RALLY When the market is driven by greed, euphoria or fear, never go against the market. The chance that you will accurately predict the turning point is close to 0. 6. Beware of Lower Time Frame Bearish Patterns In a strong bullish trend, classic bearish reversal pattern have low accuracy, especially on minutes time frames. Look at a sequence of double tops on 15 minutes time frame. These patterns are a great example of manipulations and how smart money induce retail traders to start shorting. In a such a strong bullish trend, the only strategy to rely on is trend-following trading. 7. Do Not Rely On News In times of strong bullish/bearish rallies, the data in economic calendar and important news releases stop giving the reliable signals. In times of bulls/bearish runs, emotions become the main driver of the markets, not the fundamental data. 8. If You Missed It, Let It Go I can imagine, how terrible you may feel yourself if you did not manage to buy Gold on a good price. It's sad, and it is painful to watch how the market goes higher and higher without you. But always remember a simple rule: if you missed the rally, let it go. With each new high that the market sets, your potential gains drop dramatically. I hope that these tips will help you not get burned while Gold is on fire. Stay calm and patient, and do not let your emotions intervene. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️

Technical Analysis DOES NOT WORK in GOLD Trading Does technical analysis really work in Gold trading? In this article, we will discuss whether the traditional, classic methods of technical analysis: support and resistance, breakouts, patterns can be reliable in this specific market. We will explore the dynamics of Gold prices so far this year and discuss the most efficient way to trade Gold. So if you are a gold trader or simple interested in the market analysis, you should not miss this eye-opening discussion! First, let's discuss how Gold market behaves from the beginning of the year from technical analysis perspective. Gold started this year in a strong bullish trend, the market opened after setting a new higher high on a daily the second of January. After a formation of a higher high, the market became overbought and a correctional movement initiated. The price formed a bullish flag pattern and reached the level of the last higher low - a very important support. After the test of structure, the price bounced and violated a resistance line of a flag with a strong bullish candle. From the technical perspective, it was a very strong trend-following signal and a bullish continuation was anticipated. However, it turned out that it was a false signal, and instead of going higher, the market dropped, setting a new lower low. Why this false signal is so important is that the breakouts, key levels and price action analysis are the most reliable on a daily time frame. Such a strong combination: bullish trend, bullish pattern, key support; has a very high accuracy on a daily. That was the first time this year, when technical analysis on a daily was completely screwed . It felt like the market was turning bearish. The price violated a level of the higher low, setting a new lower low. For Smart Money traders, it is a very important event that is called a Change of Character. It strongly confirms a bearish reversal on the market. One more bearish confirmation that I spotted was a completed head and shoulders pattern formation with a confirmed violation of its neckline. That signal also confirms a bearish reversal. And again, these 2 bearish confirmations were the false signals. The price went back above the neckline and a bullish movement initiated. This time, a classic price action pattern did not work , and smart money concepts gave a false signal. Then I spotted a very bullish signal - the price violated a major falling trend line and closed above that. It clearly indicated that the market was returning to a global bullish trend. And again, that signal was completely false. And the price dropped. Trend line breakout in the direction of the trend - a classic trend-following confirmation did not work. Then we saw 2 strong bearish signals: a bearish breakout of a rising trend line and a key horizontal support with a high momentum bearish candle. It felt like now it confirms that the market is bearish and it should drop lower to the closest key support. And again, technicals failed miserably and after a retest of a broken horizontal structure and a trend line, the price just went higher completely neglecting them From the beginning of the year, technical analysis: key levels, patterns, smart money, breakouts do not work on a daily. All the signals that were spotted so far failed. If you just started trading, you may easily come to the conclusion that technical analysis does not make any sense on Gold. And you will be completely right, in that period it does not work at all. I am trading Gold and Forex for more than 9 years, and year after year I noticed that there always are the periods when some techniques, some strategies do not work. Sometimes these periods are very short, but some time they can be quite long. The only proven way to overcome such periods is consistency and proper risk management . Risking a tiny portion of your trading account per trade, you will be able to survive the stubborn market. The market always returns to normal conditions and starts respecting the technicals again. However, no one knows when. There is a famous quote by John Keynes: "Markets can remain irrational longer than you stay solvent"" And only proper risk management will keep you solvent longer than the market stays irrational. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️

How to Analyze Daily Time Frame on Gold. 5 Important Things There are 5 important things that you should analyze on Gold on a daily time frame to accurately predict long term, midterm and short term movements. In this article, I will share with you a step-by-step guide for daily time frame analysis that you can apply on Gold or any other financial instrument. 1 - Identify the market trend When you analyze a daily time frame, you should identify long term, midterm and short term market trends. Long-term trend is based on the analysis of one year long price action. In the example above, Gold is trading in a long term bullish trend because the price keeps setting new higher high and new higher lows during the year. Midterm trend is based on the analysis of a price action for the last 4–5 months. Above, we can clearly see that a mid-term trend is bullish because again, the price sets new higher highs and higher lows over time. Short-term trend is based on the analysis of price movements for the last 2 months. Short-term price action is also bullish on Gold, with a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows. According to the trend analysis, long-term, mid-term and short-term trends are bullish. 2 - Identify the directional bias The directional bias defines a highly probable future direction on the market. In our example, we can anticipate that Gold will keep growing among all the dimensions: long-term, mid-term and short-term. 3 - Execute structure analysis Identify important historic horizontal and vertical structures. That will be the points from where you should look for trading opportunities. When you analyze key levels, identify the structures that are lying close to the current price levels. Make sure that all the structures that you spotted were respected by the market in the past. 4 - Look for price action patterns Price action patterns are the language of the market. Proper identification of the patters will help you correctly understand the intentions of the market participants. You can see that a bearish breakout of a rising channel triggered a correctional movement on the market. Gold started to fall steadily within a bullish flag pattern and after it tested a key support, the price violated the resistance of the flag. 5 - Analyze candlesticks Candlestick patterns can provide extra clues and confirmations. You can see that the market formed multiple rejections from key support, an inside bar formation and bullish engulfing candle. Violation of the inside bar to the upside with a strong bullish candle is an important bullish signal. Combining trend analysis, structure analysis, price action and candlestick analysis, and you can make predictions and look for trading opportunities. You can also make your analysis even more sophisticated, for example, analyzing fundamental analysis or applying technical indicators. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️