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Hypothesis

Longer term short on USD/SEK?Disclaimer: I have no idea what I'm doing so don't listen for a second about what I'm talking about. I'm just hypothesizing and learning. My thoughts: The week ending November 22nd saw the finalization of a Navarro 200 harmonic pattern on the weekly chart. Price since then seems to have rejected off the resistance at the 9.1/9.2 area that lends to the bearish downtrend. There is a bearish butterfly pattern followed by a double top on the daily, but as of now, the price has not broken below the neck. I would be entering a longer term short if it does so in the next few days. I will also wait to see what happens with the cup and handle chart on the 12 hour to see if things are thrown on their side in the short term. Might be able to scalp a long before a drop. The 1 hour appears to be in a nice bearish channel.
Short
by kilojkilo
Hypotheses; BTC BEARFLAG progressionThis is the progression of a potentially volatile situation for BTC. This last increase on the 1D was parabolic. This means a retraction of 80% would be permissible. Unfortunately, this would have it lie beneath some very critical supports. This has been seen before, as you can likely recognize. This is what happens when those who lost money during the crypto crash of 2021 will try to redeem their negative PNL’s and are buying late in the game, this is called a panic buy or (FOMO) This chain reaction, is exactly what happens in bubbling assets, and it’s a shame. Long term investments during a bubble is not advised, nor is selling after it pops. Although buyers were more cautious after the crash, that quickly disappeared after Amazon bought BTC in the 30k’s driving up prices to 48k. Remember, Amazon can sell this at any moment, as can anyone else. Buyer beware.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by SwayzePunkz
BTC! Get Rid of it I think I need to review the house rules. One of the 3 ideas I posted is not approved. And why can't I post a video idea? I am open to your help in this matter. I want to use Trading in English, but I wanted to share in both English and Turkish. but I guess that is not possible. I can never say no to any solution proposal. I am a finance graduate student sharing graphics from different social media channels. The trend-based fibonacci time zone indicator in my drawing on the bitcoin (coinbase) chart usually points to critical periods. As you can see, we will be experiencing one of the vertical blue lines tomorrow too. It seems obvious that the first three worked. I don't see a reason why it shouldn't work this time. The candle, which will symbolize the 22 May trading day, is likely to visit the level of 28,863. At least that's my opinion. I foresee that the return pattern will start on the following day. However, I should say that the bullish scenario can start on May 23, if it is realized above the level of 36.735 as of the daily closing. Although I call it a bullish scenario, I do not think the price will exceed the 43-45 thousand range. I hope it will pass, but my charts say that BTC will see the levels of $ 28,863 first and then $ 19,891. Actually, without being emotional, the main confirmation point of the chart is at the level of $ 19,291 that I mentioned. I believe this will happen because both the price has dropped below the 200-day moving average and all cryptocurrencies have exhibited these movements, why shouldn't BTC do it? so maybe the bitcoin dominance will disappear and the market will take on a more unique structure. We need to get rid of BTC! This ecologically and technologically obsolete product that threatens the health of the entire market should not be allowed to affect projects with strong fundamental analysis. Alternative coins, which resisted on the day of the fall caused by Vitalik's sales, gave positive signals about the collapse of dominance. However, the next day, as the etherium fell sharply, they also dropped to funny prices.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by ser-in
4
AUDUSD - Bullish Continuation Hello fellow traders; time for another analysis w/ SmoothPips 🙏 If you enjoy the analysis please make sure to leave a like and follow; so we can catch these pips together! ❓ What's unique about SmoothFX? -All trades executed off of the same "strategy" -Easy to read charts -Multi Time Frame Analysis -Learn and Earn experience -Very high probability -Experienced 🎯Leave some feedback & let's chat. Always willing to hear other bias'. 📌Remember; markets are moved through liquidity. We will earn more by helping each other. 🤞Please remember not every analysis will be 100% correct. Use your own due dill & discover your own research. Sincerely, SmoothPips *btw the wine is to drink with the cheese we're about to make lol* <3
Long
by SmoothhhPips
:: Longterm Hypothesis :: Eur/Usd I was confronted with the question of what my long-term view of the Eur is and I wanted to try to list it briefly and concisely here. This is the monthly chart, once the hourly EurUsd and once the continuous euro future. Unfortunately, the future doesn't give me the same amount of data, it's just like that ... Now all of my decisions are based on value. Accordingly, there are three very distinctive zones for me on the large EurUsd chart. Each has a very strong S / R and the price loves to test both sides if it is allowed to penetrate. Of course, this doesn't always work. If it doesn't work, the next logical point is usually the last value area. If we don't feel comfortable somewhere, we tend to go where we feel good. The price is just like us. It is interesting that we are currently in a value area (VA) of a larger VA. This gives a little more support and ensures good support. The scenario drawn on the chart is of course only one possible variant of how it could work: - Price tries to penetrate the new VA - will be rejected - Tests the previous VA - is also thrown off again and receives the tip that the price should please report up again - the price follows the advice, is warmly welcomed, but asks the doorman again if he is really welcome - Doorman says ok and the price can pass We come to the future. The time is marked here with the vertical lines. The futures give us the most transparent volume one can get, so it is used here as an aid. The large profile looks very ugly. The market likes to be balanced and prefers to shape a nice curve. I inserted this curve by hand and made it visible. In the gap (green box on Charts 1 and 2), the price ideally still has a lot of transactions to make in order to make the profile nice and round. That, in turn, could happen with the process that the price -possibly. even - several times he is not allowed into the new zone and he has to wander back and forth between the two VAs over and over again - completely indecisive - in order to achieve this goal. If we add the Dxy , which is currently falling very sharply, this will give wings to the long-term positive outlook for a strong euro . In 2020, 20% of the existing dollar inventory was generated. There have never been as many dollars as there are today and the dollar is becoming worthless and worthless. Of course, it can't always fall, so we have a more or less interesting liquidity zone that can be triggered. If this happens, then it increases the chance of our scenario with the fill of the transaction curve. To me that sounds like a very coherent and logical price behavior that we could experience in the near future. #EurUsd $EurUsd #ED1! $ED1! #Dxy $Dxy
by HanDollarian
USDJPY Beyond Technical Analysis: Hypothetical PlanI was focused a lot in yen performance throughout the starting day of the week when it posted out weak GDP after then some gloomy industrial reports I got hooked with the yen so far. Us had some report good some bad but till now it hadn't posted any top tier reports which could change the bullish sentiment flow of greenback but now I assume it's too much for this pair to reach this high level taking concern to its daily average true range which it is close enough and bulls are already tired to push this pair forward. Hypothetically talking in my opinion greenback took a lot of advantage from yen weakness throughout the start of the week. Knowing that the US most of the highlighted reports like inflation, some FOMC members speech, housing reports will be printed within some hours so who knows it can also be a "Pump and dump" scenario if the US has some gloomy outlook over those highlighted reports. All those earlier pumps can just end up being an overvalued price that traders priced in before knowing the actual outcome of reports from the US. They had bets on greenback being optimistic on it and at this point hypothetically talking the one who priced in may make a double target which I mean by closing the long position he/she had if the US news-bad release (profit taking) and then adding back another short position just to ride the possible new fresh downside which technically it's already an overbought as daily ATR has reached its limit 43pips. This is not a guaranteed investment I am taking some risk self on it just to play how this scenario works out and kept my risk very low. Those who are inspired by the plan and wish to follow the trade idea don't forget to manage position sizing properly to minimize any big unexpected risk.
Short
by Anatta0
BA Retracement ModelThis seems a plausible optimistic hypothesis for BA, a retracement to its longer-term support. A consensus explanation for why BA is crashing isn't clear to me, other than fears of a trade war. But some are skeptical of that explanation. A simpler explanation is, look at the strong parabolic movement starting on Jan 4, 2018, the same movement seen across the market. Its magnitude of trend-deviation cries out for a retracement to trend. Right at the new year an exuberance of optimism raised prices across the market, so BA's drop may be a retracement to prior optimism hastened by fears of a trade war, etc.
NYSE:BAShort
by iGoddard
TWO HYPOTHESIS TENTATIVE FOR BTC!!!Hello guys! welcome to this brief analysis on BTC! A few days ago I published an idea on BTC and i drew this inverse H & S, that seems at least for the moment, to follow the price trend well. Right now we are in a very important moment, because since we break the EMA200, price went to test the top of the downtrend channel several times without success and also with a false break. The EMAs (50/200) at this time are almost coinciding shortly will certainly be tested as supports and if they should hold well (hopefully) we will soon arrive in a situation where they will cross the top of the downtrend channel, so in my opinion, very soon we will understand in which direction the market will move. I designed the two hypotheses that I think could occur. If the downtrend channel is broken, there will be a lift up to the Fib 0.618 retracement which will act as a resistance and cause a small downward correction, to then go up towards the stronger resistance to the 0.5 fib retracement where we will encounter a lot of difficulty. In the case instead of a breakdown of the EMAs (hopefully it does not happen) there will be a fairly rapid descent at least up to the Fib 1 retracement, but in this case, the worst thing would be that the bear market will be confirmed again and we will wait many days to see finally a bullish trend. We'll see you next time! Please let me know yours opinions of my work and correct me if I made some mistakes! PS: I am Italian, SORRY FOR MY ENGLISH, forgive my errors of writing. DSCLAIMER: This is my own idea and I'm a BEGINNER in TA and in trading. So DON'T TRADE following my opinions but make yours and play on that. I publish only to have fun an for sharing my ideas whit others who can improve it and help me grow in understanding the world of TA and Trading.
KRAKEN:BTCUSD
by TheStarMan