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EUR/USD – Smart Money Trap at 1.18? Massive Rejection Ahead 1. Technical Context The pair has been moving inside a well-defined bullish channel since May, forming higher highs and higher lows. Price is currently hovering around 1.1718, approaching the upper boundary of the channel and a key weekly supply zone (1.1750–1.1850). ➡️ Potential scenario: A short bullish extension toward 1.1780–1.1820 to trigger stop hunts, followed by a bearish rejection toward 1.1500, and potentially 1.1380. The daily RSI is overbought (>70), suggesting a likely short-term correction. 2. Retail Sentiment 80% of retail traders are short, with an average entry around 1.1318. This signals a liquidity cluster above current highs, increasing the likelihood of a fake bullish breakout followed by a sell-off. ➡️ Contrarian insight: Retail heavily short → market may push higher first to wipe them out before reversing lower. 3. COT Report – USD Index (DXY) Non-commercials (speculators) increased their short exposure on USD (+3,134). Commercials cut their short positions (-1,994), indicating a potential bottoming on the dollar. ➡️ Conclusion: USD strength could return soon → bearish pressure for EUR/USD. 4. COT Report – EUR FX Non-commercials increased longs on EUR (+2,980) and sharply reduced shorts (-6,602) → market is now heavily net long. Commercials remain net short (581,664 vs 417,363 longs). ➡️ Over-leveraged spec longs → vulnerable to downside squeeze if macro sentiment shifts. 5. Seasonality June tends to be mildly bullish for EUR/USD. July historically shows even stronger upward performance over the last 5–10 years. ➡️ Shorts are high risk in the very short term, but a bearish setup is likely in the second half of July, especially if price action confirms. 6. Trading Outlook 📍 Short-Term Bias: Neutral to bullish toward 1.1780–1.1820 📍 Mid-Term Bias: Bearish on rejection from supply area and break of channel 🎯 Key Levels: 1.1780–1.1850: critical decision zone (liquidity + weekly supply) 1.1500: first key support 1.1380: next downside target (demand zone + previous POC) 📌 Final Conclusion The most likely play is a short setup from 1.1780–1.1850 on strong rejection, supported by: Extreme retail positioning (80% short), COT pointing to USD recovery, Extended technical structure, Overbought RSI on the daily chart.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
15
BTCUSD: Target Is Up! Long! My dear friends, Today we will analyse BTCUSD together☺️ The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 108,067 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move up so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 108,140. Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone. ❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by FreeXauusdSignals
1
GBP/CHF Headed to 1.10 – But Bulls Might Regret It📉 1. Price Action & Technical Structure (D1) Key demand zone tested with bullish reaction: Price reacted strongly around the 1.0790–1.0840 structural demand area, previously the origin of a significant bullish impulse. The latest daily candle closed above the previous swing low, suggesting a potential technical rebound. Immediate target: The 1.0980–1.1010 zone, aligning with: A clear supply area RSI bouncing from oversold territory A visible imbalance left unfilled Technical bias: Short-term LONG to fill the imbalance before a potential institutional-driven short setup at supply. 2. Retail Sentiment 86% of traders are LONG, with an average entry of 1.0997 Only 14% are SHORT, with lower volume and better pricing Current price: 1.0833, meaning most long traders are in drawdown Contrarian view: The heavy long positioning creates a liquidity pool between 1.0990–1.1010, making that zone highly attractive for institutional distribution and liquidation of retail longs, especially if accompanied by a structural shift. 🎯 Operational impact: Supports a technical long to 1.10, but high risk of reversal once that level is reached. 3. COT Report GBP (British Pound – CME) Non-commercials: Long: -6,434 → massive unwind of bullish exposure Short: +2,028 → rising bearish bets Net positioning is increasingly bearish Commercials: Long: +7,459 → increasing coverage against GBP weakness Short: -569 → slight reduction Positioning is mixed, but commercials are taking defensive long positions GBP interpretation: Bearish pressure rising from institutional speculators, despite some commercial support. CHF (Swiss Franc – CME) Non-commercials: Long: +327 Short: +1,215 Net positioning still heavily short, but shorts increasing again Commercials: Long: +1,909 Short: +307 Commercials are accumulating long CHF positions (bullish sign) CHF interpretation: Divergence between commercials (bullish CHF) and speculators (still short) → shift may be underway. 4. July Seasonality GBP: Historically strong in July, especially the last 2 years (+3.5%) Positive tendency across 10y/15y/20y averages CHF: Also seasonally positive in July, but underperforms GBP across most timeframes (except 2Y where CHF is also strong) Operational impact: Favors short-term bullish GBP/CHF bias, supported by seasonal momentum. ✅ Final Outlook Current short-term bias is bullish, driven by: Clear technical rebound Visible imbalance toward 1.10 Seasonal divergence in favor of GBP However, excessive retail long positioning + COT speculative pressure on GBP suggest this rally could be a distribution phase, offering an optimal short opportunity at 1.10.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
3
Gold – Is $3430 the Next Target After This Breakout?Gold recently completed a clean sweep of the 4H swing lows, taking out downside liquidity just before breaking out of a well-defined descending channel. This move marked a shift in momentum and structure, suggesting that the bearish leg may have concluded and the market is now transitioning into a more bullish phase. Breakout Confirmation and Retest Zone Following the breakout, price retraced and tapped directly into a confluence area where a fair value gap aligns with the upper boundary of the broken channel. This acted as a high-probability retest zone, and the reaction was strong. The market respected this structure perfectly, adding conviction to the breakout's validity. Support and Resistance Dynamics Currently, price is hovering between a nearby support level and a short-term resistance zone above. The support is holding firm after the retest, while the resistance is capping upward momentum for now. This is a healthy consolidation following the breakout, and it provides a clear structure for monitoring continuation. Imbalance Target and Flow Outlook Should the market gain enough strength to break through the overhead resistance, there is a large unmitigated imbalance further above that stands as a strong magnet. It represents a clean fair value gap left behind during the previous selloff and could be the next major draw if bullish momentum continues. Overall Flow and Trade Logic The sequence is very clean: sweep of liquidity, bullish breakout, efficient retest, and now consolidation above support. As long as price continues to form higher lows and respect the current structure, the probability of further upside remains favorable. Patience around the resistance area will be key for confirmation. Conclusion Gold is displaying a textbook reversal setup driven by liquidity and structure. If the current support continues to hold and buyers reclaim control above resistance, the path toward the upper imbalance becomes highly probable. The market is aligned for continuation, with bullish momentum building gradually. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by TehThomas
57
Bitcoin – ATH Sweep or Breakout?Bitcoin is pushing into a critical decision point as it challenges the previous all-time high near 110k. After a strong push out of a rounded bottom formation with clean higher lows, price has now broken above the last visible resistance area and is hovering just under the ATH liquidity. This rally has been aggressive, but the reaction here will determine whether this move becomes an extended breakout or a classic trap. Liquidity and Key Resistance The ATH zone around 110k carries a large pool of liquidity, and price is now testing it for the first time since the breakout. We’ve already had a clean break above the prior resistance zone, but we haven’t yet seen a confirmed close above ATH with convincing volume. If price manages to close strongly above this level on the 4H or daily chart, that would be a sign that bulls are in full control. Until then, the possibility of a sweep and rejection remains firmly on the table. Sweep Scenario and Downside Levels If we fail to close convincingly above the ATH and instead see a wick through followed by a strong reversal, that would confirm the sweep. In that case, I’d expect short setups to activate quickly, with downside targets sitting around 105k. This level marks the structure support below the most recent breakout, and would be a logical point for price to rebalance before continuing any broader uptrend. A rejection from current levels would also trap late longs and provide fuel for a quick retracement. Bullish Breakout Scenario If we do get that proper breakout above 110k, backed by strong volume and continuation candles, the upside opens fast. There’s very little structure above the ATH, so price could move cleanly up into the next round psychological target around 115k. This move would confirm continuation of the higher timeframe trend and offer short-term breakout retests for potential long re-entries. Volume and Candle Confirmation Are Crucial At this stage, the setup is binary and all about confirmation. A clean 4H or daily close above ATH with follow-through volume will flip the bias fully bullish. But if we get signs of exhaustion and a failed breakout attempt, the sweep setup becomes highly probable. Waiting for confirmation here is key, rather than trying to front-run the move. Conclusion Bitcoin is sitting right at a high-stakes level. We either continue into price discovery toward 115k if momentum follows through, or we see a classic liquidity sweep and rejection back into 105k. The clean structure and recent higher lows support both sides of the argument, but execution will depend on how price reacts around the ATH. Either way, this zone is the key pivot for the next major swing. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀
TRADENATION:BTCUSD
by TehThomas
51
US30: Will Go Up! Long! My dear friends, Today we will analyse US30 together☺️ The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 44,585.50 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move up so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 44,663.28.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone. ❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
BLACKBULL:US30Long
by FreeXauusdSignals
6