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Building a case to long Euro Trading is similar to investigative work. I gather evidence to substantiate a claim and this is how I do it. Euro, having break new high's continue to gather pace in bullish momentum. The reason I don't trade breakout is I could not quantify how much the move is going to be. The traditional way is to measure harmonic moves and expect the current move to match previous move, but I find this method ineffective as it was before. You could also try fib extension, Atr etc for your exits. I am just more comfortable (a point I keep bringing up) sitting back and wait. Thus, I have time to gather a bullish case for Euro (E6) and will consider taking a position once I see it retrace to 61.8% and above. The bulls must be able to hold its previous bullish structure. If I get in, my stop is 5 - 10 pips below the blue zone highlighted. I don't place an arbitrary figure on how far your stop should be place but do note that the shorter time frame you trade, the lesser allowance you have as the risk to reward will not be in your favor. Take your time to experience this and slowly you get my point.
E
by trutt79
A Gartley pattern on the 4 hour The nice thing about trading consolidation is that somehow i have reservations about trading too hard and it kinda place me in a neutral perspective that allow me to trade both long and short. I don't have to really trade patterns and simple long short style with reasonable risk to reward can be taken as well. (Usually, risk to reward is about 1.2:1 or 1.5:1, i don't look for big P&L as much as in trend). For convenient sake, i'd trade a pattern when i see one then trying to guess where the current move will lead me to. So, besides the 1 hour short you can take a 4 hour long. No right, no wrong. :)
NYMEX:CLV2017Long
by trutt79
Isn't interest rates likely to trade opposite of equities? My answer is yes and no. Traditionally, it is. In this era of artificially depressed interest rates, the co-relationship is not as strong as before and personally I'd prefer to view each individually. If i'm trading interest rates, i don't really bother about equities. Why bother to confuse myself? I don't trade interest rates spreads, I just want to concentrate on what i'm doing and leave the prediction game in the hands of expert. Over here, I'm seeing a short opportunity on the 10 year and i'm comfortable with a short near 61.8%. It's ok to be wrong id still have many opportunities to catch up. As long as you control the risk, you effectively control the longer term outcome.
CBOT:ZNU2017Short
by trutt79
Dissecting ES: Shorting at Structure or Breakout?ES As of now, what we know is Friday's rally fizzled out into the afternoon session and was close to retest the low. This suggest the bears are still around to battle with the bulls for the bullish structure between 2420.5 to 2404. What is conclusive is that the uptrend has been broken and attempts to rally failed at 2440, which is now a bearish level. As long as this level is not retaken by buyers, there are more downside risks. In Part I, i mentioned of a long potential at 2375 (Daily Cypher) after this selloff bottom out. This is part of my plan to trade ES. Speaking of which, could the market selloff to that level? I'd leave that in your hands.  The second trade I missed was the late morning retracement back to test 2440. (You can find this in my previous blog, Dissecting ES Part II.) Back to the present, ES is now entrenched between a major support structure and important resistance level at 2440. Frankly, i do not wish to trade on the long side as there are not enough confluence of factors that i should go long. When i view my trades in risk to reward fashion, i could quickly decide that any trades i am taking now will be short term and do not expect big risk to reward if I'm trading it. I'd wait for price action to trade to 2436 to 2444 where i could have at least a 1:1 risk to reward. Another trade i will envision is a breakout trade on Fri's low at 2419.75. It could mean a test on 2404, which if broken will be bearish. For my experiences on breakout, i would think if the breakout is within a support structure, there is only lesser then 50% chance of it working. So if you are going to trade it, I recommend taking the trade on 15 min chart where you could manage the trade better. I'd then take a 2 ATR risk against a 2 ATR reward upon entry (Depending on your trade size and max losses permitted). Whatever you are going to do, consider it from a risk to reward perspective and work your plan out. I might not be right all the time, but if I keep your risk controlled it will keep my trading career alive till the next boat out. Good luck and have fun! 
CME_MINI:ESU2017Short
by trutt79