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Dry Bulk Shipping ETF to Rise as Export/Import Prices IncreaseBDRY the Dry Bulk Shipping ETF, which is tied to the Freight Rate Futures Contracts of the Various Ship Sizes, is now looking to rise again as both the Import and Export prices continue to rise, especially within the Natural Gas and Fuel category. We have Confirmed Bullish Divergence on the RSI, MACD, and PPO; all while the PPO has begun to give us a Bullish Confirmation at the HOP level of this Bullish Deep Gartley on the Weekly Timeframe. As a result, I will now be expecting to see the market price of this ETF go up at an extreme rate as the Shipping, Freights, and Carrying Costs begin to rise. I will be looking at individual Dry Bulk Shipping and other International Goods Transportation stocks such as ADM, GASS, and DLNG
AMEX:BDRYLong
by RizeSenpai
AUDCAD: Bearish Divergence at Last Week's HighThis is a pair I'v been looking to short again for awhile now due to the trend and now i'v got some Bearish Divergence to justify entering and the nice extra bonus from the news of the US Trade Deficit Increasing. I think this will stir up more demand for the CAD against alot of other Currencies but more particularly against the AUD. This may also put downwards pressure on the price of US Oil but thats for an entirely different trade.
Short
by RizeSenpai
1
short-term pullback in Oil expected. $OIH $WTI This thing has gotten way overcooked and gone parabolic. If it continues to go parabolic, it will destroy the consumer. Which is 70% of what drives the US economy. So I doubt that will be allowed to happen by the market gods lol. I expected TVC:USOIL to return to its well-defined travel that it bonered out of like a rocket. Unless we see 3 consecutive closes above $115 a barrel for WTI crude, then I expect a return to earth (the channel) and then continuing its slug upwards until renewables and EV's have completely replaced fossil fuels and ICE's. Please see the tagged post for more info. And to understand this is not my first time doing due diligence on the subject. And not to say I told you so, but I told you so, I was spot on with oil last time. I gotta take my W's. The easy way to potentially play this while limiting risk exposure is puts on $USO, and use any profits to add to $OIH. #TRUSTinTheTiger
TVC:USOILShort
by EBITDAtiger
21 Largest countries by total tradeA few things I notice: Brazil has all the tools in its hands to, but it does not trade (it's rank 25 to 30). AUD NZD are overrated (overtraded). China way underrated but they are new, they were a tiny economy until recently following their cultural revolution. Canada a bit overtraded but not a big deal. CHF and USD seem overtraded but that's normal, Switzerland has all the banking and all the big trading firms, the US have the world intl currency (for now) and all investors in the world buy US stocks (for now). Hehe Turkey is not even there, I think it trades around 400 billions just like Brazil & Australia. Mexico has a weaker army than Singapore. They're 500,000 btw. ==> No wonder they have drug gangs patrolling the country in trucks with mounted guns and "make examples. Not impossible drug cartel exports > The country exports. Russia is a significant world player because of its army. Russia has some major obstacles to growth. It is rekt by its no access to the world oceans. ==> "Fourteen percent of U.S. counties that are adjacent to the coast produce 45 percent of the nation's gross domestic product (GDP), with over three million jobs (one in 45) directly dependent on the resources of the oceans and Great Lakes.". "One of every 6 jobs in the U.S. is marine-related". "U.S. maritime transport carries 95% of the nation’s foreign trade". "More than 80% of the nation’s economy is supported in coastal states". It's that important. Not a Russia expert (I don't even trade the Rubble) but I think this explains why Russia top 2 exports: 1- Mineral fuels including oil: US$141.3 billion (42.1% of total exports) - sent by pipelines. 2- Gems, precious metals: $30.4 billion (9%) - For very valuable goods higher transport costs aren't that big of a deal. The strong army is strategic, it gives indirect advantages it is not just for conquering. But about the conquering... They have the strongest land force in the world and should they just develop supertrains and anti ice ships or something? Just give up on world waters? Even if the conquer east Europe they'd still be at the same point. They're good at hacking for sure. And Yandex, VK, culture, video games... Historically they are an industrial power right? They are Transitioning towards virtual which you do not need to put on a container ship. Really not an expert as I said but this seems like common sense, and I'm paying attention from afar. They've been bagholding attempts to improve the situation for centuries "never give up never surrender". Either recreate some giant USSR (not going to happen) or cut losses and accept this weakness, develop other things.
Education
by MrRenev
Detail of US net imports, and why the situation is so dramaticThere is a clear picture here. The only (tiny) saving grace the US has is the "on site" stuff that cannot be delocalized, or hardly, all these basic industrial goods, as well as their agri mostly grains. The US imports 3 times as much consumer goods and auto parts as they export. It's cheaper to get chinese slaves to build goods in huge factories than pay these expensive unionised americans. The US , and even the whole west to a smaller extant, became totally reliant on foreign manufacturing. The US are heavily dependent on the rest of the world for their consumption of pharmaceuticals, auto parts, electronics in general, all sorts of household items like clothes and beds and microwaves and so on, cheap TV made in China etc. This became particularly visible during the covid crisis of 2020 where the US went "wait we need stuff, where is it?", sorry it's in India, I remember Morocco made big stacks of Hydroxychloroquine meanwhile the west could not get any, so then the whole west started a big conspiracy theory about every single drug that is cheap to make - therefore is made in foreign nations (revenues < minimum wages ==> impossible for entrepreneurs to produce locally), the propaganda branch of the west starting spreading messages on how drugs that billions (with a B) used for a century were very dangerous, no idea how anyone bought that. "Nearly 80% of drug ingredients used in the United States originate overseas, but FDA has struggled to oversee the manufacturers’ factories, raising red flags about safety. It caused drug shortages and suspension of safety protocols of the medicines manufactured overseas - the majority in China and India." Am I being a negative perma bear now? This was "speculation" before 2020 (not really guesswork, it's literally in the numbers but whatever nobel prize economists and keynisians are too dumb to understand). But now in 2021 it REALLY happened. We experienced it for real, it's not theory anymore. To be clear: The drug shortage during the covid pandemic was VERY SMALL. It's not 1% of what is about to hit. The west, mostly the US, and the least Germany, have no productive ability. When India & China stop sending humanitarian aid to them, they will turn into a desert like Venezuela, it's back to prehistory, they have the ability to build nothing at all. Elected officials are not the ones running the economy, entrepreneurs are, businessmen, and these guys conduct their business in Asia. There is no simple switch that they can turn on and off. Rebuilding the country if all goes right would normally take at least a good decade or two (maybe I'm too optimistic), but surely a while longer with the population being so old. If you are curious what consumer goods the US is a net exporter of, here is the list: To compete with Chinese cheap goods Germany (and a little bit France & the UK) came up with quality standards, the ISO 9000/9001 family which was first created by the US and the UK I know but Germany is what really went in that direction. So they retain some industrial capabilities (in particular an impressive car industry, France not doing too bad in that area too, Japan too and motorcycles also). Germany, France, Japan... They still build stuff, but what they build is more expensive so it has to be "high quality". But the US, being overly woke-liberal-capitalist-shorttermist completely gave up. They are more vulnerable than a baby in a pitbull fighting arena. Not sure what their plan is? Maybe take in millions of cheap migrants to use as workers once shtf? What will they do? Build a wall to keep them in? Lol that's not beyond the realm of possibilities. That's all grim but what about solutions? How to rebuild? Obstacles to rebuilding: You have to find capital (and as we know voters will demand a government with high taxes to "help them out", shooting themselves in the leg). Business owners & builders have to be willing to take risks when they are getting squeezed by social politicians & probably more regulations. Businessmen/women have to build factories, this does not happen by itself, need construction materials and so on. Entrepreneurs need to find skilled workers (americans have not worked in factories for 50 years) willing to work (so not on social aid). A country requires its entrepreneurs to not simply bail out because why bother? After decades of anti-nationalist propaganda. Good luck! Once the snowball of rebuilding gets going it's GG, it will keep growing, but when everything collapses it's just so hard to get the snowball initially going. Look at Venezuela and Argentina. Not only elites & go-getters left, but their "shoot myself in the foot" population is working hard to make sure business creation is next to impossible. And they've been in a mess for 10-20 years, with no light at the end of the tunnel. In modern days, high performance dynamic people will not "hold the bag" of a dying nation with a population hostile to business and in denial, lmao imagine arguing for months with morons in denial when you can just buy a plane ticket to a beach somewhere and GG. Almost no one has a nationalist sentiment anymore, so the people that build the economy will bail out of failing nations. And they only come back when a nation works hard to attract them (enough for it to be worth taking the risk of moving), with low taxes and low regulations and so on. It's really simple and straightforward... So to sum up, the US is doomed. Wasteland of nothing being done soon. And it's not worth fighting for, let them sort their mess. Solutions? East Europe, Australia, Caucasus countries, and others, let you in if you got money in the pocket (to invest in their country of course) and plans. Georgia Citizenship by Investment: Become a Turkish citizen within just six months with a real estate investment, bank deposit, or new business. Turkey with their empire history have it implanted in them to take people in. And actually they have the fastest growing economy of OECD countries. And much better demographics. Turkey has not the best eco freedom, but better than France. Georgia better than all. As the economies keep growing, and less of their entrepreneurs and workers leave + new ones come in, it can snowball and they can easily be in a better place than the US. All countries that went through troubles are fighting for wealth & job creators in this very high sedentary & risk aversion era. Go-getters still overvalue the west. Not much longer. Istanbul is 6 times as bif as NYC, and got twice the population, don't worry there is plenty to do. Remember, when Rome fell, the population of Istanbul went to the moon. Of course die hard atheists, LGBTS and so on are not welcome. Moving to a country, no matter which one, is a big decision not to be made overnight. Also if some NA states split from the rest it might get interesting, Texas in particular is trying to be more pro business. Big beautiful country average size (30m pop 700k km² bigger than France, plenty of space for new arrivals) with natural ressources etc. Their GDP grew 71% more than the US between 1997 and 2016 and manufacturing output 130% more. They're getting overrun with californians and illegals though (risk). Sorry Americans stuff does not magically fall off the sky after the welfare state makes an incantation, it has to be harvested from the ground and then manufactured. If no one builds anything in the country, and foreign countries that build stuff stop sending it for free, there won't be anything in the country. Enjoy no toilet paper, no computers, no phones, no wine, no car parts, no drugs, no televisions, no shoes, no shirts, no veggies, no nothing. All that will be left will be sugar, wheat, soybeans, corn, and meat which the US does produce in large quantities. In other words sodas, high fructose corn syrup, and burgers (wheat + meat). Yay! Ah an a final word, all this collapse is considering they do not repay their debt (both official federal debt and us dollars printed to import). If they have to export what they owe the hit will be even bigger (what little drugs they produce will have to be exported while seniors die being denied treatment), but I don't see this happening, or maybe very little of it.
TVC:DJI
by MrRenev
4
AUD bulls support threatened AUD/USD extends its four-day losing streak into Tuesday, looking to threaten the September low of 0.7006 while wallowing in three-week lows near 0.7032. AUD futures net positions dropped from 8.9k to 3.8k as 10k+ short positions were opened. Growth in China is slower than expected hence Australian exports to the Asian country could be affected. This coupled with the ongoing trade tensions between the two countries threatens the strength of the AUDUSD. The expectations of a November rate cut and or bond-buying expansion emboldened after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Deputy Governor Dr. Chris Kent and October meeting minutes suggested that additional easing is due on the cards. Further pressurizing the downside in the spot, the US dollar holds onto the overnight bounce, as hopes of a potential US fiscal stimulus deal pre-election fade despite the narrowing differences between the House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. DXY net positions in the CFTC COT Weekly report turned positive last week hence we could expect a bullish dollar in the medium term, well at least until the US elections are over. Equity markets are currently on a risk on mode after erasing gains made earlier on Monday. Further concerns about the pandemic globally will keep pressure on the safe haven as more countries start to consider placing strict lockdown measures.
Short
by GrizzlyBearBee
SHIPPING INDUSTRY of EARTH? “Door-to-Door” SHIPPING INDUSTRY of EARTH? “Door-to-Door” “THE LAST MILE” of FREIGHT? One of the most important ideas in the shipping industry is the idea of “universal balance”. (for example Exports compared to Imports or from an economic-philosophical perspective imbalance in credit or “debt”). Shipping is perhaps one of the most important industries still here on Earth. Unfortunately, most of our Earths “most critical industries” surprisingly have some of the lowest levels of profit for example foods and shipping typically makes less then a few 1% or 2% profit (7% at most). However, the reason maybe because profits go naturally where they should be and not into the stock market or (even) businesses themselves. For example much of the profit goes to the cost of “labor” in shipping or foods services. For the poor, its actually a healthy sign “low profits”. Problems in our Shipping or Foods industry spell some of the most central and “universal” problems of our entire economy. When shipping on Earth stops its a sign of major problems even with the latest” modern version” of capitalism (developed in the “far east” and “far west”)? The main problem historically with the shipping industry is how we understand our future here and perhaps on another planet or moon. Do we (to the) full realize how important shipping is on Earth? Simple Facts about the Shipping Industry on Earth? Most goods are not shipped by “road” in fact about 70% of all goods are (not surprisingly) shipped by sea, and only 18% by road, 9% by rail, 2% by inland waterways and less than 0.25% by air? I was personally very surprised by these numbers, again its an example of how fundamentally “weird transport” (cars?) is to everything on Earth. Somethings are so important that sometimes the price doesn’t matter anymore? UPS is involved in “Door-to-Door” shipping. Its the most difficult and even very dangerous type of shipping (when you think about shipping things internationally). UPS provides “this service” to help people today ship just about anything anywhere? They quoted you a price of this service and it includes all shipping, handling, import and customs duties, making it a hassle-free. So what are the details of UPS: (one of the largest “door to door” shipping companies on Earth?) Employs about 500,000 people. Ships about $70 billon dollars a year (revenue). Net Income about 7% Typical Price of Stock to Earnings Ratio: 20 to 1 (perhaps way way too high and too little profit) Details of Historical Problem of UPS: Perhaps "the most serious" problems for UPS in the "modern history" started in September of 2007 The important fact about this problem at UPS was that this started BEFORE the “other” 2008 housing market loan crash. For UPS this crash lasted only about one year and turned around in February of 2009. Stock prices dropped by ½ going from about $75 dollars per share to a low of $41 per share for UPS (see graph). Biggest Growth Period at for UPS Shipping?: From February of 2009 (after the serious bank crash of 2008) UPS grew and had some of its most important positive years for almost one full decade (thats 10 years of growth for UPS! Doubling and then TRIPLING the price of UPS stock values…?). By 2018 the price of the UPS stock reached very high levels relative to UPS earnings and started to show some of the most “wild price swings” in the history of UPS. How did this effect the rest of the shipping industry? The real question is something “different’ was going on in “shipping” globally by January of 2018. Its possible that something or “too much” was being shipped globally and there was something “in the environment” of Earth itself that effected life on earth and shipping at the start of 2018? This was well before the major (virus) crashes started in Feb of 2020. UPS had “one final peak of priced grace” in October of 2019 and then suddenly started to drop by about 30 points much of which was prior to our recent global crash... I’ve often wondered if it would make sense for UPS to mostly focus on shipping goods to warehouses only? Why would UPS want to do this? This would thereby possibly cause more pollution in the short term but less Carbon Fuel Pollution in the long term? Because people themselves would need to pickup the shipments. However, if you look at whats going on globally in the shipping industry “MOST” (70%) of all goods already are shipped mostly by sea and this would force people to live closer (together) and nearer to larger cities along the coasts forcing customers to “pickup” goods at a local warehouse. Land or "ground" shipping can be made by train or by truck. However, one thing to worry about for the future of companies like UPS is that only 18% of all goods are shipping by land. Logically it maybe makes sense to only focus on moving big items “like the moon or an astroid”? Ground transport is typically more affordable than air, but more expensive than sea, especially in developing countries, where inland infrastructure may not be efficient or even possible? Many goods today are shipped by “intermodal freight transport” which are basically “normal” shipments that involve more than one mode. Because most goods are “ship by sea” they might also be shipped when they arrive by rail or plane and finally truck a UPS truck? One of the most important problems in shipping is called the “Last Mile”. This is a term used in supply chain management and transportation planning to describe how important real people (real door delivery problems) are in moving goods from a transportation hub to their final destination… typically “our front doors”… GLOBAL COMPETITION FOR “DOOR TO DOOR” SHIPPING? Major competitors in the United States include the “government” United States Postal Service (USPS) and FedEx, along with regional carriers. In addition to these domestic carriers, UPS competes with a variety of international operators, including Canada Post, TransForce, Deutsche Post (also known as DHL), Royal Mail, Japan Post Service, India Post, China and *many* other regional carriers in each country, national (or forging government) postal services and air cargo handlers. It maybe wise for UPS (or any shipping company in the world) to not ship “the last mile” and instead when starting up new operations in for example Indo-China or (India, Malaysia, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, or Vietnam) Historically, just about everything has been used in transport. Camels, Dogs and Wolves, Donkey, Elephant, Homing pigeons, Horses, Llamas, Ox, Santa’s Reindeer… and even our heads to carry water for miles and miles? However, less and less is being shipped by humans and surprisingly less and less shipments today are “door to door”. Because there is so “little” profit in Foods and Shipping this has created perhaps the largest “black market” for “unconventional” shipping system. We maybe are not ready yet for the truth. On Earth whats going on is very complex … especially if we are shipping “everyone” someday into the deep Cosmos? It maybe that many private shipping companies need to refocus. There business isn’t about profit? And most of it mysteriously is by or on the “sea”? There are many possibilities for new shipment strategies even DHL is offering a way for people to “buy certain routs” and “invest in a specific route” and get profits from “specific supply chain investments” as a simple person who just “likes that shipment route”. So a new centralized “warehouse” approach to shipping maybe will not work alone. Localized services today are very important and are also international. Finally? What is the future of the shipping industry here on Earth? UPS is perhaps one of the most important practical examples of non-governmental private enterprise in (our) (future) fields of shipping. They have (already) been around for as little as 100 years? What does it mean when the Moon, Jupiter, Saturn and Mars will all be aligned this year or even (so I read in the news) “this week in April”? Its almost like the entire universe is stopping for a moment here on earth and “aligning” with something really really far out? What does does this have anything to do with trillions of packages shipped here on Earth? Perhaps the success of the shipping industry will point us someplace far far away? Anyway, I hope you've really enjoyed my discussion on “the future of shipping”… ;) The Cosmos is perhaps “our man’s” “final frontier”.. we don't really have a lot of control over the universe… there is a lot of things moving around out there someplace in our universe.. and today we cant “ship” to many-places “off earth”? Our entire planets future might just depend on “shipping companies” like UPS? To the moon to another star system (or galaxy?)? however, this doesn’t stop us from trying to get involved in shipping all types of strange things all over the world and or even to just look at the next full moon with new possibilities. Hope this helps everyone! Asher
NYSE:UPS
by idasuperman
WTI OIL (USOIL) Rebounding Process?!The report says that China is moving forward with plans to buy up oil for its emergency reserves after the epic crash in oil prices over the past few weeks. Beijing has asked departments to quickly begin filling tanks and options to lock in the current low prices in the market. Also noting that Beijing may use commercial space for storage as well - in addition to its state-owned reserves. At least with China stepping in, it may help to briefly support prices somewhat in the near-term but don't expect this to change the grand scheme of things.
TVC:USOILLong
by Anatta0
2