broader market health indicated (UVXY)vix is showing that weve successfully tested some level in the s&p that could hold. momentum in uvxy is downward. the hourly should play out in bears favor, bullish for the s&p.
Indextrading
probable tightening range (SPXL)given the amount of retracement if we stay over 97 and attract volume setting and confirmin this as a higher low around the .5 its likely we enter a tightening range going for a touch of vwma and then setting a lower high. id like to close that day around the highs for a bull daily case. horizontals are valid targets.
overbought vix (UVXY)this thing has taken on a terminal thrust/ island top appearance and i wouldnt be surprised to see vix and its derivative products pull back from this extreme.
two paths for nasdaq futures (TQQQ)in reality the tech boom is to blame for this correction. if we werent in such business with the market weight we are currently there wouldnt be a need for the drawdown in buying that we are. this could obviously co tinue, but my bias is still long after the current contraction and retracement. divergence from vwma, rsi and qqe signals strategies are long, and i have to say that the weekend looks promising as long as we stay away from negative headlines. the conflict is mostly priced in and xlv, xle, xli, utsl having a good day in relation to the rest of the market moving down shows healthy rotation, and does not spell a crash. defensive sector stock will accumulate and prices in tech will move up.
two paths for volatility (UVXY)theres a really bullish sentiment playing out on the daily, but technical indications are that we sell off a little in vix. ive circled the type of cross i want to see, and highlighted what could gappen if we dont complete the bearish pattern.
over $23 or under 16 in 1 week
two paths we could take spx futures (es1!)im confident on the abandoned baby/bullish doji daily theory, and i think we may be seein a similar pattern now to the one i have circled in oct '21. if we continue off of oversold bullish divergence and cross the vwma getting a long entry in qqe then this market is a buy. we may gap up and trade upwards on monday. if we treat that average as resistance qqe will remain short and rsi will bulliahly diverge even further returning to oversold.
SPX WhipsawAs you know, markets rarely move straight up and straight down. The battle between buyers and sellers with differing time frames and objectives guarantee it will always be a challenge not get shaken out of trades. The S&P 500 looks like it will hit the 3800-3850 region soon. However, There is a strong possibility that we see a vicious countertrend rally at either the 4150 or 4050 regions. A strong rally from these regions could push it very quickly back to 4325 before continuing down to 3800.
How to trade this:
1) If you are not already short and would like to be,,, wait. Look to re-enter around 4325 if we see that. Shorting at this point is dangerous and even if you are eventually profitable on the trade, it will rob you of sleep at night.
2) If you are looking for a longer term long entry position, wait till we reach the 3850 region before pulling the trigger on your watchlist. There is is a real possibility that we could see further weakness down to 3200 level, so be judicious and begin dollar-cost-averaging from 3850.
Guaranteed money (UVXY)If we break to new highs it's almost a guarantee that, provided we are hitting new lows in multiple important sectors like tickers xlf, qqq, spy, we take this over 19. The only real guarantee is that whatever high we hit in UVXY we are seeing lower prices soon. low 14s is where I'm drawing these hypothetical puts expiring a me to.e early March. This is based on the simple fact that indices didn't hold their lows, and there are really two scenarios that can play out: we set some lower low as support and bounce, or we continue lower. If we go lower there's really no support. If we bounce there's really very little resistance. Low availability of shares means we're not headed sideways.
This is the bullish picture for uvxy:
This is the bearish picture:
The forecasts show my limits of how far I would long or short based on a bull/bear move from current levels. The ghost feed is just one solution to how they could both hit. If you get the right signals UVXY is guaranteed money.
Nasdaq futures changing rsi 15 minute (nq1!)There are 4 paths with support resistance and pivot lines and retracement showing the potential lower high set.
Bearish momentum should stay (TQQQ)Rsi needs to bullishly diverge further, so the drop in price should be larger. There's really little room to judge this as a lower low that could hold. Around 40 is an area that might induce bullish activity. I wouldn't look for a long entry right now, but there will be one eventually. This is damage that will last up to the monthly.
Vwma has turned down, and qqe is still short.
.618 retracement seems like its a buy for broader markets (SPXL)109.56 would be a great higher low to put in if we get bounce into the end of the week. i trust that if we keep cloaing over 105 on the daily that we will be back up at 123 in a couple weeks time.
this is big (TQQQ)i see a full recovery if broader market bulls can continue this turn around. should we find ourselves in a position where melt up is taking place, i think we have no choice but to go with that. the daily picture is shaping up in bulls favor, but the smart thing to do is wait for confirmation of the trend change.
setting new lows in indices (nq1!)if we fail some area below gap close and trend lower we could find ourselves under 13800 soon as the ukraine border crisis plays out.
we are trending under vwma 18, hl2 offset 8 and qqe signals strategy is short. rsi looks like it will need to bullishly diverge further.
higher low weekly in the works (NQ1!)id like to see weakness sunday that turns around early next week as we are likely to find some level around the .5 or .618 of the bounce signaling another run up at 14500 to see if that trendline, vwma and anchored vwap are still resistive on the hourly timeframe.
front month vix futures remain overbought (vx1!)the upside in short term vix futures remains muted as limitations on how far out broader market shorts in the money puts are due to backwardation in front month contracts. this is leading to derivatives like UVXY to probably continue to sell off of overbought.
we could find ourselves back in the low 14s UVXY if we see 22 vix again which should be soon. if we go over 28 vix id imagine were headed for 20 UVXY. the weekly picture for vix is bearish.
NIFTY 50Index Outlook given in the chart itself
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overbought vix (UVXY)i wouldnt want to be holding this thing long right now. were at 84 rsi hourly and a pullback from these levels seems like its in the works.
mid to high 15s is the target. even if we gap up and blast to the upside, i dont think were really in hot water unless spx breaks to new lows, and it doesnt seem like thats going to happen.
seems a lot like volatility has returned as the norm (SPXL)theres a chance that getting back to all time highs may take a lonh time, and when we get there we may be heading into another drop. if volatility has returned as the new norm there is a lot of evidence to suggest that we wont see a stronger market than 2021 until at least 2023. should we make a second break to the downside whether it is sooner or later a touch of vwma monthly is not unthinkable.
range bound into the end of the week (nq1!)nasdaq futures should continue their recovery, but remain volatile into the end of the week. by the first part of next week we should have a break, qnd it would be nice to see a bull break. a break of the lows isnt impossible though, and well cross that bridge when we come to it.
vix churning lower, should spring back then decline (UVXY)this is a rapid consecutive forecast going into the end of the week
i dont foresee vix ending above week highs, but there could be bounce if we dont immediately continue lower on the daily
the forecast cluster represents output from the ghost feed
this is based on qqe, rsi, vwma
14.74, 14.24, 13.81 are key levels
nasdaq bear making moves under week highs (SQQQ)generally this etf is going one direction: down, but the weight may be lifted off its shoulders briefly as calls expiring next week are eliminated. if we cant break to new intraday highs i would imagine sqqq has one last trip above 40 only to get sucked back to vwma.
spx trading fractal reversal, larger trend intact (es1!)there is a reversal within a reversal, and this will cause volatility. the larger reversal is intact though and we can expect higher weekly lows followed by a break of the bounce high.
US Indexes had a late burst higher to end in the greenMorning Jumpstart Macro View and US market recap 1-02-22
The US had a late session burst higher that dragged the major Indexes into green territory ahead of key US employment data Friday. The USD continues to grind lower while Gold was range bound. Copper had a strong session while Oil continues to hold recent gains setting for another push higher.
For a deeper look at the price action, key levels and what I see playing out...watch the video and feel free to leave any comments.
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