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Investroy

EUR/USD: to the moon pretty soon?New week, new outlook on EUR/USD. Without further ado, let's line up the technicals with the fundamentals and see what kind of picture is being painted. Looking at the Weekly timeframe graph, it can be clearly observed that a not-very-symmetric ascending channel that confirms the overall bullish sentiment of the market has been formed. At the moment, the price is rejecting an important key level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level derived from the Monthly-timeframe chart. Observing the ongoing development and the recent Weekly candle closures, we might infer that further bullish impulses are possible from the local region of support. All in all, we will keep monitoring the price build-up and look for long confirmations at the highlighted region before entering BUY positions and aiming for the upside.
Long
by Investroy
11
USD/CHF: detailed technical analysis. What's the next step?As it can be inferred from the WEEKLY-timeframe graph, the price is ranging within the boundaries of the descending channel that has been highlighted on the chart. Observing the ongoing price development, it can be noted that the price is approaching a crucial zone where three key confluences collaborate: upper barrier of the descending parallel channel, previous Lower Low point, 50% Fibonacci retracement drawn from the top till the bottom of the recent bearish wave. Considering the above-stated points, we are pretty positive that the long-term sentiment on this pair remains bearish. Hence, once the price reaches the key zone that is portrayed on the graphic, we will carefully monitor the price action and look for our entry criteria to be met before entering short positions as planned and aim for the orchestrated target that is acting as the recent level of Lower Low.
Short
by Investroy
11
EUR/USD: get ready for a potential short-term bearish reversalAs it can be observed from the Daily-timeframe graph, the price has reached the upper barrier of the ascending channel that has been neatly highlighted. Since we have been able to witness the price reverse from this zone twice, we are positive about the fact that another bearish reversal - even a short-term one - is possible to expect. Hence, we will observe the price build-up around the local key zone and await further confirmations before looking into going short and aiming for the region of previous resistance now acting as support aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level identified from the recent impulse that is portrayed on the graph.
Short
by Investroy
11
USD/CHF: wait for a breakout before hopping onAt the moment, it can be inferred that the price is trading within the borders of the sideways-moving range that is plotted on the graph. Due to choppiness and indecisiveness, it is unknown what the next rally is gonna look like. However, if we get a clear breakout of one of the boundaries, a potential trade entry could be made upon witnessing a re-test. Therefore, for now, we are sitting on our hands and patiently waiting for a clear signal before executing a transaction.
by Investroy
14
BTC/USD: zone-to-zone trading. Are the bulls ready?Looking at the DAILY-timeframe graph, we might observe that the price has yet again bounced off the ascending trend-line that is portrayed on the graph (impulse that started on 15/06). At the moment, we are sitting at a crucial area of resistance and some sort of a "Top Reversal" pattern can be identified. As our bias remains bullish, we are looking into entering long positions at an appropriate level and riding the probably upcoming bullish wave. The "appropriate level" that we have our eyes on is set at the $28k region that corresponds with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent bullish impulse. Once the price reaches the highlighted level, we will look for our entry criteria to be met (formation of a bottom reversal, wick rejections etc.) before entering long positions and aiming for the upside.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Investroy
21
Here is what we learned from 1000 Publications on TradingViewAs Investroy, a company dedicated to financial education, we are thrilled to celebrate our remarkable milestone of 1000 publications on TradingView. This achievement symbolizes our ongoing journey of learning and growth in the world of trading. Throughout these years, we have accumulated invaluable insights into the psychological aspects of trading, the importance of publishing quality content, and the significance of fostering a supportive community. In our 1000th post, we would like to share the lessons we have learned, offering guidance to fellow traders, educators, and community members. (Publishing Quality Content) At Investroy, we believe that sharing educational content on TradingView allows us to contribute to the trading community while continuously learning something new ourselves during the research. To ensure the highest quality of content, we have learned the following lessons: a. Thorough Research: We understand that conducting in-depth research and analysis is essential before presenting any trading idea or concept. By providing accurate information and data-backed insights, we strive to add value to the community and enhance our reputation. Here, it is important to understand that some strategies or pointers you may deploy might be subjective and not so widely accepted by everybody, so stay mindful and respectful of the feedback you get. b. Clarity and Simplicity: We have come to appreciate the significance of communicating complex trading concepts in a clear and concise manner. Our aim is to help readers understand and apply the information effectively. Through the use of charts, diagrams, and visual aids, we can enhance the clarity of our articles. Rule of thumb, don’t use millions of indicators on a chart unless you really know what you’re doing. That will not only clog up your vision, but will also make it harder for everyone else to understand what you’re up to. c. Continual Learning: We recognize that staying up-to-date with the latest market trends, trading strategies, and financial news is crucial for producing relevant and valuable content. Engaging in ongoing education and seeking feedback from the community have been essential in helping us improve and refine our content. (Building a Supportive Trading Community) We firmly believe in being an active and supportive member of the TradingView community. By fostering a positive environment, we all should contribute to the growth and development of fellow traders. Here are the lessons we have learned: a. Encouragement and Constructive Feedback: We have witnessed the power of providing encouragement and constructive feedback to fellow traders. By creating a supportive atmosphere, we inspire and motivate others on their trading journey. Celebrating successes and offering helpful suggestions become catalysts for growth. This doesn’t include spamming everybody with “GOOD JOB”, “AWESOME CHARTWORK”, but rather providing insight on your opinion or politely sharing on how they can improve the content quality. b. Collaboration and Knowledge Sharing: We have found that collaborating with other traders and sharing insights fosters a spirit of collaboration and mutual growth. Actively participating in discussions, engaging in chats, and offering valuable additions have contributed to creating a vibrant and active community. Thankfully, TradingView administration is quite good with listening to advice from community members and accommodating for them. c. Respect and Professionalism: At Investroy, we hold immense respect for diverse perspectives. We understand the importance of maintaining professionalism in all interactions and adhering to community guidelines. By treating others with kindness and empathy, we strive to create a welcoming environment for all traders. If you’re here to troll, just go to reddit or something instead. A big majority of people here are doing something about their lives and if you’re making fun of them, then that should be a reason to start reevaluating your priorities. Reaching the milestone of 1000 publications on TradingView is a testament to our unwavering commitment to trading education, content quality, and community support. Our journey has revealed the significance of nurturing psychological resilience, publishing high-quality content, and building a supportive trading community. By integrating these lessons into our trading practices and community engagement, we remain dedicated to the growth, learning, and success of fellow traders and the broader trading community. Together, we can continue to empower one another on this transformative journey of financial education and trading excellence. Have an awesome weekend ahead and hopefully you enjoyed the read!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Investroy
7
EUR/USD: ultra-bullish view. Where is the next target region?Zooming out and taking a look at the Daily-timeframe chart, it can be inferred that the price is trading within the barriers of the ascending channel that is portrayed on the graph. After bouncing off the lower boundary of the parallel channel since the initial analysis (the link of which will be attached to the chart) was posted, "impulse+correction" patterns have been able to drive the price all the way towards the up-trending diagonal that is highlighted on the graphic by printing a huge move of 250+ pips. As it stands, we are expecting further bullish impulses that will - potentially - drive the price up and reach our pre-determined target.
Long
by Investroy
20
DXY: Navigating USD's Turbulent Descent Towards Crucial SupportLadies and gentlemen, this is your captain speaking. Welcome aboard the Investroy flight. We are currently approaching a crucial support level of 102 on the DXY, which may bring about a change in the prevailing market conditions. This shift is expected to occur following the liquidity increase post July 4th. Now, let's talk about the recent performance of the USD. Just like a stalled plane, the USD has been descending without another rate hike in sight. We anticipate this downward trend to continue until the end of the week. However, as we approach the touchdown at 102 (expected late this week or early next week), the FED will be faced with an important decision that will determine our next direction. From this critical level, we have two possible outcomes. We could either break through this level and continue our descent towards the early May lows, or we might experience a bounce back towards the early June highs, just like a plane pulling up to regain altitude. The exact course of action remains uncertain at this stage, but we expect to gain more clarity as we approach the release of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report next Friday. Rest assured, we will keep you all updated on any developments. In either scenario, it's worth noting that the retest can be entered safely, just like a skilled pilot making a precise landing. So buckle up, traders, and prepare for potential turbulence as we navigate through these market conditions. Thank you for choosing to fly with us, and we wish you a successful trading journey.
TVC:DXY
by Investroy
11
Decoding Forex Mysteries: USDCHF & EURGBP Reaction to Rate HikesWelcome to the intriguing world of Forex, where currencies act at their own rhythm, sometimes defying expectations and confounding even the most experienced traders. In this article, we are going to unravel the “mysteries” surrounding the reactions of USDCHF and EURGBP to recent interest rate hikes. We will dive into the realms of market anticipation, monetary policy statements, and the significance of staying ahead in this dynamic landscape. 1. The Resilience of USDCHF As the Swiss National Bank (SNB) raises interest rates from 1.5% to 1.75%, market observers brace for the anticipated downward movement of the USDCHF. However, contrary to expectations, the currency pair displays remarkable resilience. Let's explore the underlying factors: a) Priced-in Expectations: The forex market is renowned for its ability to assimilate information in advance. It is likely that market participants had already factored in the interest rate hike, blunting the immediate impact on USDCHF. Such anticipatory behavior highlights the importance of staying attuned to prevailing sentiment and analyzing market positioning. b) Comparative Interest Rates: Understanding the relative interest rates of different currencies is paramount. If the rate hike in Switzerland was aligned with or lower than market expectations, and other major currencies offered more attractive rates, investors might have favored those currencies, mitigating the downward pressure on USDCHF. c) Monetary Policy Statement Outlook: Monetary policy statements accompanying interest rate decisions provide crucial insights into central banks' future intentions (you can usually watch them live on YouTube 30 minutes after the data release or on Bloomberg type of channels). Since the SNB's statement revealed a cautious and neutral stance, it has tempered the impact of the rate hike on USDCHF. Market participants pay close attention to forward guidance, as it shapes expectations regarding future policy actions and influences currency movements. 2. The Curious Behavior of EURGBP Let us now turn our attention to EURGBP, which failed to sustain a short sentiment following the Bank of England's interest rate hike from 4.5% to 5.00% (versus the expected 4.75%) and left a nasty week. To understand this curious behavior, we delve into the following factors: a) Market Expectations: The forex market is often driven by expectations and anticipatory positioning. If traders had already priced in the interest rate hike, the actual announcement might not have triggered a significant market reaction. Therefore, the lack of sustained short sentiment in EURGBP could be attributed to market participants adjusting their positions in advance. The GBP was up already by 4% within the last month against major currencies, so a big chunk of market was already longing EG for the expected short term recovery (guilty, but we also made a 2.9% profit closure on this). b) Monetary Policy Outlook: Beyond interest rate changes, central banks' monetary policy outlooks play a vital role in shaping currency dynamics. The accompanying statement from the Bank of England, which shed light on their future plans, indicated a more gradual approach to tightening or expressed concerns about economic conditions. Such cues influence market sentiment and limit the downward pressure on EURGBP. In case of UK, this is already not a good look with their inflation rates :/ Now, you may ask: “Investroy, what do we do if fundamentals don’t exhibit the expected economical impact?” Don’t worry, we got you! A Prerequisite for Success In the ever-evolving forex market, staying ahead of the curve is crucial. To navigate the intricacies and maximize opportunities, traders must adopt a proactive approach: a) Monitor Central Bank Communications: Understanding central banks' intentions requires careful analysis of their policy statements, speeches, and press conferences. These sources provide valuable clues about future policy decisions and can guide trading strategies. b) Assess Economic Indicators: Keep a keen eye on economic indicators that impact currency valuations, such as GDP, inflation, and employment data. These indicators provide a foundation for understanding a country's economic health and can influence currency movements. c) Stay Informed of Geopolitical Developments: Geopolitical events, such as trade disputes or political instability, can significantly impact forex markets. Being aware of these developments and their potential consequences on currency movements is crucial for staying ahead. d) Analyze Market Sentiment: Sentiment analysis, gauging the collective psychology of market participants, can offer valuable insights. Monitoring market sentiment through various indicators, such as positioning data and sentiment surveys, helps identify potential shifts and align trading strategies accordingly. e) Embrace Technological Tools: Utilize advanced trading platforms and tools that provide real-time data, customizable charts, and algorithmic trading capabilities. These resources empower traders to analyze market trends, spot patterns, and execute trades swiftly. Bonus) this one is a little subjective, but markets are very cyclic, if something is oversold, but everybody is expecting further bearish move, be sure there is a retracement coming before that happens 😊 Stay safe and enjoy your day!
Education
by Investroy
23
USD/CHF: further drop inboundWith the sentiment being bearish, our focus is dedicated towards entering short positions. Moreover, now that the price has reached and rejected the crucial area of resistance highlighted on the graph, we are looking into executing SELL entries and riding the potentially upcoming bearish wave with our target at the level of support portrayed on the chart. It is also important to have an eye on the FED testimony due later today. If everything goes as planned, we can expect impulses in the pre-determined destination.
Short
by Investroy
15
The Trojan Horse of TradingThe Trojan Horse was a wooden horse used by the Greek army to enter the city of Troy and win the war. Although the inhabitants of the town had initially perceived the horse as a victory trophy, Greek fighters emerged from inside of it and destroyed the city. "Yeah, that's a nice story. But how the heck is it related to trading?" Let us clarify. Trading is generally considered as one of the "easiest hardest" ways of making money. Upon learning about the limitless number of opportunities provided by the financial markets, newbies get excited and believe in the false promises offered by some "John Smith FX Trader" on Instagram that drives a purple Lamborghini and posts demo account profits. To be less cruel and offending, newcomers think they can become consistently profitable full-time investors/traders almost instantly. Hence, we compare trading to the Trojan Horse that is full of "big sharks" such as institutional traders, hedge funds, market manipulating brokerage firms and so forth. In this case, retailers act as residents of the city of Troy and perceive the horse as a gift dedicated for the triumph. Undoubtedly, as already stated, the world of trading presents a vast number of opportunities that one can benefit and make profits from. However, the drawbacks should not be discarded either. Illustrated, we can find some of the hardships that are hiding behind the glamorous GUCCI bags, Shangri-La hotels, Michelin starred restaurants and Bentley sport-cars.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Investroy
12
USD/CHF: will the price continue melting?As it can be inferred from the H16-timeframe graph, the price has been able to break out of the ascending channel portrayed on the chart and re-test the lower boundary of it before printing an impulsive bearish leg. Afterwards, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the formed bearish leg got rejected, giving us extra confirmations on the bearish bias. Judging by the ongoing price build-up, we are expecting for the downside movements to continue and for the price to reach the highlighted region of support in the upcoming days/weeks depending on the development.
Short
by Investroy
16
BTC/USD: CPR needed while we continue marching towards 24k$Our previous Bitcoin idea was met with.. let’s say some minor "backlash" from enthusiasts who hold all of their assets in BTC without diversification and thus refusing to understand the cyclic nature of all the processes in the universe. Well, ever since that post, we: 1) Successfully identified the start point of the current bearish rally 2) Are more than 12% in profits And from what it seems like, we are just getting started, as we leave behind the 27.0-27.5k$ level that now serves as a new resistance line, which we might revisit one more time before we make our way towards our intermediate target of 24.000$ that we currently have eyes on. The indicated level of 24k$ is an important psychological point right under the crucial 25k$ mark that serves as the stronghold for most crypto traders (yes, people love round numbers). Moreover, 24k$ also coincides with a 0.618 Fib retracement for the previous March-April bullish rally. With this in minds, we continue holding our position.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Investroy
18
USD/CHF: detailed chart illustration. Where are we headed next?As it can be derived from the high-timeframe chart of 16H, after penetrating through the lower barrier of the ascending channel illustrated on the graph, the price is now headed towards the highlighted region of resistance that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level identified from the recent impulsive leg. As our sentiment remains bearish, our focus is dedicated towards entering short positions and riding the bearish wave. Hence, if our entry criteria is met and the level we have our eyes on is rejected by the price, we will look into executing SELL positions and targeting the zone of support marked on the graphic.
Short
by Investroy
20
EUR/USD: bullish view. Which region can bulls aim for?As it can be inferred from the Daily-timeframe graph on EUR/USD, an ascending parallel channel has been formed and the price has recently been able to form a bottom reversal pattern on the lower barrier of it. From the looks of it, the price is getting ready to soar towards the upside, and hence, our sentiment for this pair is bullish. By entering long-term BUY positions, we will be targeting the upper boundary of the channel as highlighted on the chart.
Long
by Investroy
22
USD/CHF: a multi-timeframe view. Where are we headed next?Today, we will examine USDCHF from a multi-timeframe perspective. Firstly, looking at the WEEKLY-timeframe chart on the left-hand side of the screen, it can be observed that the price has nicely rejected the key region of resistance aligning with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level identified from the massive Weekly TF impulses. Narrowing into lower-timeframe graphics, we may notice a preliminary triangle pattern that has been determined by connecting the recent highs and lows as portrayed on the chart. Furthermore, the upper boundary of the triangle nicely lines up with the 50% Fibonacci level of the recent impulse. Hence, if the price manages to reach the entry zone we have highlighted on the graph (0.9085), we will look into entering short positions and aiming for the region of support pictured on the Weekly chart (0.886).
Short
by Investroy
27
GOLD (XAU/USD): a minimalistic multi-timeframe illustrationTaking a look at the Monthly-timeframe graph, we might observe that the price has heavily rejected the major level of resistance that has been highlighted. Zooming into the Weekly Timeframe, it can be inferred that the price is currently sitting on a previous region of resistance now acting as support. If the key level we are currently sitting on gets penetrated, expect a bloodbath. The bearish price build-up along with a strong USD give us enough confidence that the ongoing downtrend might continue. In case things play out in accordance with our theory and game-plan, we will be closely monitoring the price action for entering short positions and aiming for the price region market on the graphic.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Investroy
21
BITCOIN: bulls or bears? Vote in the comments!Looking at the Monthly-timeframe graph on the left-hand side of the screen, it can be inferred that the price has been able to reject the crucial area of resistance highlighted on the chart that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level drawn from the top to the bottom of the bearish rally commencing in April of 2022. Zooming into the Weekly-timeframe chart, it can be observed that the price is approaching the FWB:25K region of previous resistance now acting as support. Here, we are awaiting a "bounce or break" action before plotting the next game-plan. Are you bullish or bearish on BTC/USD? Will we be witnessing another crash or we should get prepared for heading to Jupiter? Do not hesitate to share your ideas and thoughts in the comment section below!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Investroy
39
USD/CAD: a massive pump incoming?After a consecutive streak of printing numerous wick candles, we can finally observe the price attempting to impulse towards the upside. As highlighted on the chart, drawing two diagonals, a triangle pattern can be identified. Now that we can see some signs of a breakout from the formed triangle, we are more or less confident that the region marked on the chart as the “next target” can be reached. Nevertheless, the FOMC minutes due tonight are to be followed too as, if we want the analysis to play out in accordance with the plan, we should expect hawkish USD.
Long
by Investroy
24
USD/CHF: the best region to go short from has been identifiedFirst of all, taking a look at the Weekly-timeframe graph, we might observe how the price has succeeded in rejecting the crucial area of resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Zooming into the DAILY TF graph illustrated on the right-hand side of the screen, it can be identified that the price has printed a long wick by rejecting the local area of support, and that it is headed towards the upside. Since our long-term view remains bearish, we will await the price reach the key region highlighted on the graph and contribute to forming a nice Top Pattern formation before we look into going short and targeting the Weekly TF Lower Low level.
Short
by Investroy
19