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Central Banks week and the IMF head expects a crisisMonday turned out to be a fairly calm day for financial markets. The reason on the surface is a day off in the USA. So today it will almost certainly be more volatile and interesting. The Bank of Japan set the pace to the news background early in the morning. Monetary policy parameters were left unchanged. The press conference will be somewhat later than the publication of this review, so if any interesting details come up, they will talk about them tomorrow. Today will be interesting statistics on the UK labor market. Considering how disastrous the data on the British economy last week was, one should not expect any positive. Nevertheless, we continue to believe that Brexit is the main driver of the pound, and statistics in the current reality can lead only to local movements. Accordingly, weak data, of course, will provoke sales but are unlikely to lead to the formation of a trend. This means that purchases in intraday oversold areas remain relevant to us. Let's get back to the events of yesterday. Perhaps the most significant was the opening of the oil market with a gap up. The reason is concerns about the supply on the market. The fact is that Iraq and Libya drastically reduced oil production. In Iraq, because of protests, in Libya, because of armed groups that blocked the pipeline. And although it is very likely that these force majeure are temporary, we recall our recommendation to buy oil, which continues to be relevant in the current conditions. We also continue to be supporters of the impending crisis, or at least the strongest correction in the US stock market. So it was nice to note the replenishment in our ranks. The head of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, in her last interview, compared the current situation to what was happening in the world on the eve of the Great Depression. A key common feature of the 1920s and the present situation is excessive financial squandering. According to the head of the IMF, depression cannot be avoided. The whole question is only in time. In this regard, we recall our recommendations on buying safe haven assets (gold in the first place and Japanese yen in the second), as well as the “trading idea of the decade” - in the sale of shares of high-tech companies in the US stock market.
Short
by Trade24Fx
Missiles attack, plane crash, earthquake and ADP dataYesterday was oversaturated and accordingly super volatile. Although it is worth noting that the strength of the counter-movements significantly exceeded our expectations. On days like yesterday, traders either make a fortune or (which happens much more often) lose their deposits. Often the reason for the loss of the deposit is excessive greed on the one hand and disbelief in their own positions on the other. For us, yesterday’s events mean that even better entry points have appeared on the market. And that means opportunities for even greater earnings. But first things first. Yesterday began with news of Iran’s missile attacks on US military bases in Iraq. Gold and oil on such news naturally rushed up. The markets were preparing for an immediate US response: Trump's 52 goals - that’s all. But no action followed. Trump tweeted “keep calm,” and then also made a public statement in which he made it clear that the United States was not going to further escalate the conflict, at least militarily. As a result, investors rushed to lock profits. True, they were obviously carried away, since the fixation clearly turned into the opening of counter-positions. As a result, gold after the 1610 test fell to the key support area of 1550. Although it looked strange, it was only a great opportunity to buy cheaper. Actually, we wrote about this in our review yesterday. That is, gold could theoretically reach 1550 and it reached. Yes, it looked almost unbelievable, but in terms of the logic of key levels, it was generally logical. So, we repeat, while gold is above 1550 - only purchases, only forward. In general, most of the news yesterday had Iranian roots. The crash with many casualties on take-off from Tehran immediately after attacks on US military bases unwittingly suggests that a passenger plane could become a victim of either an Iranian air defense or a terrorist attack. Too converge events in time and place. Add to this a rather strong earthquake in same Iran, and even near the nuclear power plant, and we get such a jackpot. In general, we strongly recommend that you refuse to buy the Iranian real or the Iranian stock market. But back to the economy. US employment data from ADP presented a gift to buyers of the US dollar and the US stock market: +202K with a forecast of +160K inspire serious optimism on the eve of the publication of official statistics on Friday. However, the correlation between ADP and official data is very weak, albeit positive, so for now we continue to see in the growth of the dollar is not a threat, but an opportunity. The opportunity for its sales is more expensive. So today we will continue to look for points to open short positions on the dollar. First of all, against the Japanese yen. Everything that is happening in the world plays into the hands of only safe havens. It is hard to imagine that such a positive and relaxing thing should happen in the world so that the level of anxiety and tension would drop sharply. This means that we will continue to buy gold today. In terms of macroeconomic statistics, today will be a day of respite before Friday and data on the US labor market, so no surprises should be expected in this regard.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
Scalping The Daily SMA In September WTI Crude OilThe U.S. session has opened with fireworks out of the crude oil markets. Since the traditional New York crude oil “pit” open at 9:00 AM EST, traders have driven the price of WTI north by almost $2.00. At press time, price is testing the $69.00 level. The intraday uptrend is explosive, so keep leverage moderate. Here is a scalp setup from a short-term daily Moving average and the $70.00 level: 1) Entry: Sell $69.91 2) Stop Loss: $70.02 3) Profit Target: 8-12 ticks 4) Risk vs Reward: Sub-1/1 This trade may come into play later in the session. Immediate and positive price action is the goal here.
NYMEX:CLU2018Short
by FXLeaders
As #OPEC Meets, #Crude May Feel DisappointedTomorrow, members of OPEC will meet in Vienna, and it is unlikely there will be any policy shifts. Despite the dire straits some OPEC members are in, such as Venezuela, the current crude production policy will likely remain until Iran and Russia agree to some sort of production resolution. MacroView has been overly bearish since June 2014 but indicating that the one key dynamic factor in crude prices would be supply (same goes for Brent and OPEC). Essentially, West Texas Intermediate would continue to see woes until there were meaningful cutbacks in crude production, which finally began to filter through on a combination of record-low rig counts and bankruptcies (yes, bankruptcies are bullish). Crude output levels in the U.S. are at levels last seen during the second-half of 2014. West Texas Intermediate has been trading within the current supply range between $48/50 for the last 12 trading sessions, and price action is currently treating the current trend support on narrowing price action. If OPEC disappoints tomorrow, and break through trend would cause traders to seek out support near $42, while a confirmed breakout of the supply zone could trigger buying to $55. The weekly chart picture for crude: OPEC's production has largely offset declines seen by U.S. shale producers, and members will continue to press on. Iran has said they look to achieve 2.2 Mbbl/day to compete with Saudi for market share; Iraq and Kuwait both look to increase their production meaningfully. Non-OPEC member Russia continues to keep oil production at post-Soviet highs. Side note: expect volatility in commodities currencies on headline risk. The Canadian dollar has pulled back after gaining 18 percent on crude's rally, but it remains vulnerable. For more information on MacroView's products, or general questions and comments, feel free to message us. Also, readers are encouraged to post their thoughts and charts!
NYMEX:CL1!
by MacroView_Research