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Irrationalexuberance

VIX to $17 Soon for another key trend line resistance test!Ensure you hedge your trades and know your maximum loss and profit, especially if you have limited funds to dollar cost average or are trading options. For informational and educational purposes only, I prefer buying laddered call options on UVIX (1.5x), VXX (1x), and UVXY (2x) at sub-$13 levels over 2-4 weeks that align with my long "risk on" call expirations. This way, I can sell the pops and use the proceeds to add to my most committed "risk on" positions. Good luck! @candlestickninjatv
TVC:VIXLong
by candlestickninja
10 of the dumbest irrational beliefsEvery site book or video introducing what trading is says the same: The number 1 threat is being emotional. I agree, but I would be more clear and call it being irrational, or better, having a reptilian brain. "Being emotional" sounds like someone getting all hysterical, that's not how traders fail, they fail because they got caught up in the hype, get scared of violent moves and remove their orders (to then see they missed a winner but since they don't log their trades they actually never notice the pattern), get complacent, fail to see the world as it is, think the dot com bubble will never pop because of "virtuallity means there can be infinite profitability" (makes 0 sense, comptletely irrational), et cetera. In this idea, I will present some of the best irrational ideas (and a few of the funniest), that some people somehow believe in. Let's learn what NOT TO DO. Good thing I don't want to start a hedge fund or work as an analyst or anything, so I don't have to pretend I respect these people that fall for clown baits. 1- The warming is bigger than you think! According to journalists that claim 97% of scientists agree with them: Russia is warming 2.5 faster than everywhere else news.yahoo.com China is warming faster than everywhere else www.ecns.cn According to the very serious very official IPCC, Europe has been warming faster than the global average www.theguardian.com Europe: Ireland is warming twice as fast as everywhere else www.irishtimes.com Europe: Britain has been warming 50% faster as everywhere else www.telegraph.co.uk Europe: Finland is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet www.zmescience.com Europe: Sweden temperature rising more than twice as fast as the global average www.thelocal.se West Africa is warming faster (76%) than the rest of the world (West Africa is Mauritania Mali Niger and all the countries under those in the "bulge" of west africa) www.ghanabusinessnews.com South Africa is warming faster than the rest of the world www.traveller24.com The arab world (MENA) is warming faster than the rest of the world (summers to warm twice as fast) www.economist.com www.arabstates.undp.org Mediterranean is warming up faster than the rest of the planet english.elpais.com Asia vast landmass warming faster than everywhere else and end of the world (famine droughts etc) www.tasnimnews.com Canada warming twice as fast as everywhere else www.theguardian.com Arctic is warming at astonoshing rate (other articles say twice as fast) www.npr.org Mountains communities suffer as mountains warm... you guessed it, twice as fast as everywhere else psmag.com USA are warming faster than the rest of the world www.theguardian.com The antartic is warming faster than everywhere else (10 times!) www.nasa.gov www.coolantarctica.com Australia warming twice as fast as everywhere else www.ft.com Kuwait: Alarm as Gulf waters warm three times faster than average Removed article BONUS: Even Mars is warming 4 times as fast as anywhere else on earth. Must be manmade ;) www.sott.net Ok to be fair, it could be that the equator and the 2 big oceans are warming more slowly, and every where other than that is warming faster. But they are launching the alarmism on oceans too, and always saying how "equatorial regions (which are all poor) will be hit the worse" Pacific ocean warming 15 times more than before eu.usatoday.com Ocean warming accelerating faster than thought (really? faster than thought? when all the models were way overestimating the warming?) www.nytimes.com Ocean water off west coast acidifying at twice the rate of global average www.oregonlive.com There are no articles, not a single one, on a location where "warming slower than everywhere else". Since warming is to blame directly for everything, and countries where warming is bigger will be touched more, how come they always say that countries where warming is smallest (around the equator) will be impacted most and it will create waves of millions of climate migrants from central america & africa??? Logic??? It's worse in developped countries therefore consequances will be worse in developped countries, but also consequences will be worse in developping nations which will create climate refugees. Every where the impact is worse than everywhere else. All the focus is on creating alarmism out of thin air. In any set of data, some samples will be above average, other ones are below average. Simple statistics. All speculators should know this. Rating hungry media simply pick the extremes in the sample to create alarmism, and people fall for that. It is completely irrational. Unless the variance was completely huge, which it is not, a 1-sigma variation is nothing special. They did not point to anything out of the ordinary, nothing was discovered or created. I could pick literally anything and go "xyz stocks prices fall twice as fast as the entire stock market" to scare people and really dumb people are under the impression that everything is falling fast which is a whole other special kind of stupid. "warming faster than average" "acidifying faster than average" "today I pooped twice as much as usual". Basic stats there are always outliers... 2- The coronavirus is the greatest threat of our generation and we will all lose a loved one It killed what? Like 2500 people in 2 months? And spring is 1 month away. "Coronavirus cases spike in Iran, country most hit after china" ==> Wow a whooping 8 deaths. I am scared. Iran pop is around 80 millions if I recall correctly. www.cnbc.com The flu ==> Up to 650,000 respiratory deaths per year. Ebola ==> Who knows how many millions since its discovery. Heart disease cause by eating trash in huge quantities, smoking ==> hundreds of millions of deaths. No one cares, people keep smoking and eating 4 kg poop a day. This is how the Corona Virusses work since their discovery in the 60s. And this has lasted for 60 years - holding head in hand & blushing. 3- There is a global conspiracy to hide from us that the earth is flat Ok, why? And... how is EVERYONE on board with this? Also, why? What about the proof? The logic? The more proof? Flat earthers... One died yesterday in his homemade steam spaceship to prove earth was flat (I kid you not). They ask you for proof if "what you say is true" and add a little "aha!". Then you come up with proof. Then they disregard the proof "bah you made it up". Nothing can convince them. They think the world is surrounded by antartica which holds water in. Gravity doesn't exist to them. They have eyes. Sometimes telescopes. They can see other planets. They can see every visible object that is not earth is nice and round. Yet, earth is not??? They come up with the most idiotic explanations for tall buildings disappearing under the curvature as you move away from them, or how the sun circling earth can possibly work (why is half of earth dark for half the day while the other half is lit to put it simple). If there was a market for the shape of earth, they would keep betting on "flat" and getting tore apart by the trend continuously going towards "globe". 4- Internet/Crypto "infinite profitability" You might have missed this, but during the dot com bubble, BAD speculators were explaining to every one how because the internet is not physical and all tech and everything, "infinite profitability" was possible, which means the stock market would literally never stop going up. I did not make this up. There are recordings. You can check for yourself. I think we can hear this exceptional argument in the 2001 documentary "What Happened". During the dot com bubble, companies (especially IPOs) that had absolutely no business model no profit no nothing were getting so much money for nothing. They bought the most expensive furniture, that was not even used. It was ridiculous. Anyone could come up with their "start up" and a 30 seconds speach and get huge funding. Investors didn't care about what commanies were doing. "Internet stuff? Take my money!" Stanley Druckenmiller which was Soros associate or worked for him and generated the british pound idea, lost billions getting his reptilian brain fired up and thinking the dot com stocks would never stop going up. He recently invested in a new hype market, cloud companies, which is a few years old now (before crypto bubble) I worked in this hype scam, seemed ridiculous to me, and I am glad this bubble burst. They laughed at Warren Buffet for being cautious, and they got burned... We had the same happen recently with not IPOs but this time ICOs. People told me I was overly bearish 2 years ago for saying Lisk would fall to 1 dollar and even below, they thought it was going to 300 bucks on rebrand LOL! Well guess what? I was right all along, and the price bounced on almost all the levels I pointed out 2 years ago: Of course these bubbles bring all the scammers. Bitconnect promising 1% a day because of "their magical arbitrage bot". Money just appears out of thin air in people mind? These reptiles realize what 1% a day means? 3700% after just 1 year. It's more than Ponzi or Madoff ever promised... The internet & crypto bubbles, both irrational. Nothing "changes the laws of economics". There is no "infinite profitability" wealth that magically pops out of thin air. There never will be. pretty sure the laws of math & physics are never going to change. 5- Famous one: Tulip Mania Every one knows about this one I guess. Imagine paying fortunes for some bulb because "it's so fashionable". It's just a stupid flower you idiots! 6- Fashionable self harm & harm to others Did you know there was a time (and a place) when poisoning people was fashionnable? Oh how awesome! Stabbing someone was a punishable crime and offended people, but poisoning someone? Oh how cool you are! According to ancient greek texts, a habit in Ethiopia was that when the king was disabled in a part of his body, his entourage would mutilate themselves to have the same disability. I've read about dumb teenagers inserting needles in their bodies or strangling themselves because it's the trending thing. I don't even want to look into that, I'd risk losing some brain cells. 7- Cigarettes are good for you, and radioactive drinks give you vigor Lol. Well it's self explanatory I think XD This is what people used to think a century or so ago 8- The jews/witches are responsible for all the ills of society Repeating one... Funny thing is before the little ice age the church called the fear of witches a dumb superstition, they tried their best to make pagans look stupid and this was I guess one of those things? And a few centuries later when CO2 levels declined and people started getting HANGRY here is the church, burning hundreds of thousands of witches... 9- Penny stocks A news of a partnership or other shill comes out and some penny stocks go up hundreds of percent because "this might be the next amazon". It's way overvalued, by ignorant retail traders, it always falls right back to zero (baseline), and they keep falling for it. Idk man. 10- "I believe in science" Here you have 99% of science (I do not include maths) theories that end up getting disproven (or as some call it "improved"), and yet, some clowns are "die hard believers because science is true whether you agree or not". Mkay, so for the past 10000 years science kept getting it wrong over and over and evolve, but today, this very day, this is when all of it is correct and won't be proven wrong? Just come up with a new "amazinging sciencism", make it flashy and revolutionary and all, launch a few companies, buy shares so price go up, and enjoy your billions as suckers pile in...
TVC:DJIEducation
by MrRenev
9
Apple scare the shit out meLooking for history the last time apple recover so quicly was in 2007 it recover for 4 months then start to droping like hell, the question what justify apple trading at these levels, all fang not only absurd overbought, RSI Of stocks are in the 80, like msft, dis, amzn fb, the question you have to ask is why now? we are in a bull market so quickly you see in the times before that apple as fully recover always has double bottom, apple did not do that, also looking at fundamentals, during the last 5 years apple has diluted their shares nearly 19%, so EPS Look Higher, there is a lot of speculation with this stock, i think is the most speculative stock in wallstreet after tsla nflx all and amazn, i get msft has double digit growth but what has apple last quarter iphone sales decline 15% YOY and thatis 65% of his revenue, the claim services is just 10% of his total revenue, even if apple doubles that in 2 years, they have 10 years of the same product,no major changes beside better screen camara and processor, wallstreet always oversale this stock like is the best company in the world, people are buying iphone XR More than 10 thats why they are not even revealing how many units they sell, wallstreet in matter of months take apple again to hit 1 trillion? like a nothing happen, there is a lot of questions regarding the future of apple, i get is a good company, but is not was used to be, they need a new product, now all people buying the stupidity of services like is a big deal, i think apple could cut guidance, market is not expecting so much move because of volatility but look what happen with intel, everyone was so bullish and then earnings fall 10%, with volatilty at 12% dont want to imagine with vix at 20, so, i think apple could fall 188-190 the next week but who knows, these irrational market im all in short here, i just buy 195 puts May 17 GL To all traders!
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by Kanon8260
4
About to get stoned...Shares of TLRY, and many other pot stocks for that matter, have been on fire lately. While I've made good money along the ride, its just getting ridiculous at this point. This company went public exactly 2 months ago today.. the IPO price was $17. In 8 weeks time, it's up over 1300%! That's incredible for those that got in early, but its a clear sign of ignorance to be chasing it up here now. If you aren't taking at least some profits, you're either greedy or mentally ill. While I think there's a lot of growth potential in the weed space, as evidenced by companies like STZ and KO getting invested, people need to be patient and let the prices come back down to earth. I'm actually shorting this thing via long put options (the options are pricey, too!). Specifically, I bought Sept. 28 $55's in one account, and longer dated October $120's in another. Yes, it's ballsy move, but this blowout volume today may be a capitulation point. Take a step back and smoke a blunt or 6 while you wait for this thing's buzz to wear off! And please don't be an idiot and chase this thing up here!
NASDAQ:TLRYShort
by EchoAlphaBravo
S&P500 (SPX) Hit Upper Targets. Two Sell Areas. Bitcoin/USD Daily Bars, LOG Scale, 06/14/18, 5:30 p.m. EST, by Mike Mansfield Hi trader friends, quick post for a stock index move down that may happen from here or a bit higher. Even though we are into cryptos, I used to run a SP500 commodity program, then went all in on FX in 2003, so I like other markets besides cryptos. Here’s a post for futures & stock traders. There may be a short opportunity here or a bit higher around 2800-2810. SUMMARY: Spoos met a confluence of resistance lines yesterday than may stop the market. There is one other area just above this level that offer a clean short as well. The black Schiff 0.50 Pitchfork line. The blue upper parallel line. The lower edge of the yellow Andrews Pitchfork. Time for at least a quick reversal. Two cycles heading down for approximately 10 & 17 more days. Divergence on the Austin’s SSRSI indicator. Braking today’s low of 2769 would likely set a moved down to 2745. Put Call Ratio is at a low point that often means a significant down moves is near. Mutual fund managers have near historic low levels of cash, meaning they're virtually all in. But, there is still some fresh money left from foreign buyers, mom and pops and some hedge funds and of course the grand manipulators of all time, the world central banks. One more push up? If we get a rally to 2800-2810 (2807 to be exact) where the Gann 8:1 line and upper blue parallel line meet, then get a 1-2 bar Key Reversal down on significant volume, that would be another good place for a short. This assumes that we are in a large degree Wave C rally. Conversely, a daily close > 2807 likely means we are in a final 5th wave up of this years up move. PATTERN: I do not have time to do all the smaller wave counts, but with all the overlapping waves, it still looks like the market is in a complex longer-term corrective pattern that may not have finished with the February or April low. ELLIOTT WAVES: Unclear, but possibly a C wave high, that could be the Wave 2 high! Maybe we get one more push up to 2807 area. But if and when the market starts gapping down, then we could have a wild Wave 3 to the downside on our hands. RISK: The GANN 8:1 line (upper dashed black line) is sometimes hit before a market has a major reversal. This was a call I had on Decred crypto a few weeks ago that was right on the money at the 8:1 Gann line. So, if this pullback doesn’t last a week or two from this point, then there might be another decent sell opportunity where the GANN 8:1 line meets the upper blue parallel channel line around 2804-2820 area, depending if and when it gets there. TARGETS FOR NOW, IF TODAY'S LOW IS BROKEN, BEFORE A NEW HIGH: 2743 (middle blue dashed line). 2686 (lower blue dash line and lower blue parallel channel support line. NOTE: If lower blue parallel channel support line is broken, that could be quite bearish. CYCLE TURNING POINTS: Short-term yellow cycle bottoms 06/25/18 at NY open. Longer-term blue cycle bottoms 07/03/18 at NY open. NEGATION OF SHORT-TERM BEARISH OUTLOOK: Closing above the GANN 8:1 line would likely mean we are actually an ugly 5th wave to a new all-time high. Note the dashed green arrow heading upward at the lower black Schiff pitchfork. This could be the support level if the market is still excess bullish mode. If so, that is the place to try a buy. Hum... Where else can people put their funds with rates so low and likely to move up and crush bond holders? Real estate is in another bubble, but not liquid like stocks, so either stocks or cryptos. Watch gold the next few days. See if we get some wild moves in ether bonds (time for Wave C of wave 2 bounce) to give a clue on stocks, of course bonds, gold, and cryptos. Watch the money flows. DISCLOSURE: This analysis is meant for educational purposes only. You trade at your own risk! Cheers! Michael Mansfield CIO
SP:SPX
by UnknownUnicorn1613901
3