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ITW

Illinois Tool Works To Buck Trend and Move Up?Based on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on September 8, 2021 with a closing price of 221.85. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 223.5 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 2.612% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 3.67% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 5.9855% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.5% rise must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 11.5 trading bars; half occur within 24.0 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 33.5 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play). The bonus analysis is explained...
NYSE:ITWLong
by StockSignaler
Illinois Tool Works (ITW) Will Drop At Least 3 Percent SoonIllinois Tool Works Inc has been trending up for more than two years. As the stock moves up, it naturally cycles up and down maintaining its upward bias. Some technical indicators are displaying major signals that the stock will soon drop. The relative strength index (RSI) is at a rarely observed extreme level; a combination of indicators also point out trouble on the horizon. The stock will most likely continue its upward trend over the long-term; but this next natural cycle down could impact investors. How bad will history repeat itself? The RSI is at 84.5283 and tends to determine trends, momentum, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The RSI is currently overbought and is at one of its highest levels ever. It can only take the stock down from here. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.1854 and the negative is 0.6629. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. The opposite is true when the negative is higher. I have created an algorithm (called the SAG gauge) which signals when stocks are truly overbought and oversold. The algorithm indicates when a particular stock meets multiple criteria culminating in an oversold or overbought signal. The overbought signal recently occurred and could occur again over the next few days. Seeing the other signs of a downturn, proactively positioning short for the stock's decline prior to seeing this verifying signal could increase profits. Upon back-testing this indicator, it has signaled overbought status 104 times dating back to 1980. The stock drops at least 1.75% over the following 35 trading days in eighty percent of these occurrences. The stock drops at least 3% seventy percent of the time and forty percent of the time loses 5.75%. Even though a drop does not always occur, these numbers combined with the following statistics have instilled confidence that a greater than 2% drop is looming. The RSI has been at or above its current level ONLY seven times in the history of this stock. The stock always drops over the next 25 days with a minimum drop of 0.93%, median decline of 2.52%, and average drop of 4.58%. Only one other time since 2000 was the RSI and positive VI at or above today's level at the same time the stochastic oscillator was overbought with the earnings call three days away. The stock dropped 5.21% over the following 14 trading days on that occasion. The technical indicators for this stock have been in the same or more extreme positions simultaneously only three times in the history of the stock. These all occurred more than 30 years ago. The minimum drop was 9.33% over 16 trading days while the median was 12.82% over 33 trading days. Although not identical to the current technical readings, ten similar instances saw the RSI close to today's 84 reading while the positive VI was at or above its current position, the negative VI was at or below its current position and the stochastic oscillator was overbought. On these occasions the stock dropped at least 4.49% and saw a median loss of 9.72%. Another odd thing has just occurred regarding the positive VI value. It was recently above its current 1.18 level before it dropped below 1 and moved back above 1.18. Although a move like this is normal, the positive level never crossed below the negative VI level. This similar movement has only occurred on five occasions. The minimum loss for the stock was 7.34% and the median drop was 8.50%. It is clear the stock will drop at least 3% over the next 40 days after taking all of this historical information in to consideration. I would not be surprised if the stock lost greater than 5% over this time period. The RSI for the stock is at one of its highest recorded levels ever which indicates there is only one direction for the stock to move. More at LimitlessLifeSkills.com
NYSE:ITWShort
by StockSignaler