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Prepared for S&P500 correction with Buying PUT optionI've closed every other position, staying in cash and playing for SPX correction because: 1/ SP500 RSI falling down 2/ Strong trendline broken 3/ Selling Volume increased My strategy is simple: BUY SPY Jun30' 415 PUT for 3.85db, because VIX is realive low SIZING: only a little of my CAP is used for this binary play. Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing ABOVE the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be 50% of position. Take profit strategy: selling about ~38cr (x10). Of course I'll not wait until expiry...! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by TanukiTrade
2
COINBASE 72% PoP 30% Profit with short put vertical strategy TA at 1HR TF (because this stock is new, no daily history) Quick Coinbase play at high IVR, reasons: - trend changed: higher high , lower lows - divergence at bottom - my strike is last bottom as support- $260 - I have very plenty safety zone - Buying power arrieved as volume Max profit: $220 Probability of Profit: 72% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 28% Max loss with my risk management: ~$290 Req. Buy Power: $780 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 93 (ultra high) Expiry: 38 days Buy 1 COIN Jun18' 250 Put Sell 1 COIN Jun18' 260 Put Credit Put spread for 2.2cr, because IVR is very high. Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing BELOW the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be 290$. Probability of loss in this way: ~10% . Take profit strategy: 65% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order at 0.77db. Probability of profit this way: ~90%. Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
NASDAQ:COINLong
by TanukiTrade
EEM 62% PoP for quick 18% profit spreadQuick option spread play for the next 2 weeks: * 1 year trendline still holding * bullish trend Max profit: $154 Probability of Profit: 62% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 18% Max loss with my risk management: ~$150 Req. Buy Power: $846 (max loss without management at expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 12 Expiry: 13 days Sell 2 EEM May21' 55 Put Buy 2 EEM May21' 50 Put Credit Put spread for 0.77cr each, because IVR is average Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing BELOW the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be 150$. Probability of loss in this way: ~20% . Take profit strategy: 65% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order at 0.27db. Probability of profit this way: ~80%. Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
AMEX:EEMLong
by TanukiTrade
SMH 75% PoP & 18% profit in 2 weeks with monthly verticalQuick 2 week vertical play: * Bullish triangle * Buy volume * 14 month bullish trend Max profit: $156 Probability of Profit: 75% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 18% Max loss with my risk management: ~$250 Req. Buy Power: $844 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 5.4 Expiry: 15 days Buy 2 SMH May21' 230 Put Sell 2 SMH May21' 235 Put Credit PUT spread for 0.78cr each. Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing BELOW the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be 250$. Probability of loss in this way: ~12% . Take profit strategy: 65% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order at 0.27db. Probability of profit this way: ~88%. Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by TanukiTrade
Bullish Iron Condor with 64% PoP for 41% profit at eventMax profit: $291 Probability of Profit: 64% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 41% Max loss with my risk management: ~$200 Req. Buy Power: $709 (max loss without management at expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 53 (high) Expiry: 43 days Buy 1 SQ Jun18' 190 Put Sell 1 SQ Jun18' 200 Put Sell 1 SQ Jun18' 290 Call Buy 1 SQ Jun18' 300 Call Bullish Iron Condor for 2.91cr with +4.82 delta Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing outside the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be 200$. Probability of loss in this way: ~20% . Take profit strategy: 65% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order at 1.02db. Probability of profit this way: ~80%. Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
NYSE:XYZLong
by TanukiTrade
SAGE 62% PoP Bearish Iron Condor after event My favorite bearish neutral trade for today. Losing only upside, I like the extreme high IVR values to play. Reasons to play this: 1/ After event, big selloff, high implied volatility. 2/ Extreme High Implied Volatility, good for credit strategies 3/ I can boost my original bearish vertical spread with 2 bottom legs at fib 0.786 to boosting my reward almost zero risk to the downside (max loss below strike 35 is $17 ...) 4/ Secure zones are 88$ and the 40$ So the winner is the negative delta Iron Condor Strategy. Max profit: $483 Probability of Profit: %62 Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 42% Max loss with my risk management: ~$250 Req. Buy Power: $1050 (max loss without management at expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 92 (ultra high) Expiry: 45 days Buy 1 SAGE Jun18' 35 Put Sell 1 SAGE Jun18' 40 Put Sell 1 SAGE Jun18' 90 Call Buy 1 SAGE Jun18' 105 Call IRON CONDOR for 4.83cr with negative -8.3 delta, because IVR is very high and I'm bearish. Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing ABOVE $90, max loss in my calculations in this case could be 250$. Probability of loss in this way: ~20% . Take profit strategy: 60% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order at 1.69db. Probability of profit this way: ~80%. Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
NASDAQ:SAGE
by TanukiTrade
Watch this BEFORE taking Iron Condors! (IV Rank & Percentile)Iron Condors have been the buzz lately on my social media. People have discovered or re-discovered them because they are WORKING now! But should traders keep using them without knowing WHY they are working? If you are getting into Iron Condors you MUST watch this to understand the key metrics professional options sellers look at when placing their trades. Tradingview cut me off at 20 minutes but I got the info in!
TVC:VIXEducation
by norok
31
S&P500 Long Call Vertical 66% Probability Of ProfitI've played yesterdays some S&P500 with vetical spread. (1) RSI in the middle zone Any direction is possible (2) Forming a bullish triangle - again Similar cases in the past one year: (3) There is a little more space to the upside (4) Relative Implied Volatility is low So I'm choosing a debit strategy. CONCLUSION: I'm using LONG CALL VERTICAL - Buy 1 SPY April16' 375 Call Sell 1 SPY April16' 380 Call Debit call spread for 4.12 debit Probability of Profit: 66% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 21% Max profit: 88$ Max loss at expiry: 412$ (Buy Power) Max loss with my risk management: ~95$ Tasty IVR: 4.8 Expiry: 36 days Stop/my risk management: Closing immediately if daily candle is closing below $379 Take profit strategy: I'm taking at the 55% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order. (at 4.56 credit) If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and follow my fresh ideas ( @mrAnonymCrypto on tradingview ).
AMEX:SPYLong
by TanukiTrade
9
RUSSEL ETF 20% profit play during correction with Iron Condor One of the most highest probability of trades are: neutral Iron Condors with high Implied Volatility on large indices. (SPX, DJI, RUT) The more an indice is overbougth, than better this strategy works, as the correction also results more movement into downside. Unlike other overvalued stocks, however: the indices are not collapsing. (except for 1-2 extreme cases where immediate intervention is required, eg March 2020) I'm always trading the alternative ETFs of these indices: SPY = S&P500 = ES mini futures IWM = Russel 2000 = RT mini futures DIA = DJI = YM mini futures .etc... On Friday I've opened an IWM Iron Condor, so here are my reasons: (1) RTY1! Futures Analysis The Russel mini futures at local top hit the 3 year trendline, bluffy upside trendline permanently broke. (2) Divergence with breakdown Hard daily divergence in the last few months, my smooth RSI trendline breeaks. (3) Relative high IVR Relative Implied Volatility Rank (IVR) increases. This value, if high enough (e.g., above 45), favors neutral credit strategies like Iron Condor. In the case of indices, this is particularly rare, occurring every few months. At these times you can safely open neutral strategies (wide wings), for example: Iron Condor, Strangle. (4) My Iron Condor hunter script signal My Iron Condor Hunter indicator give me an automatic signal with safe ranges. As you see: in the past almost every time indicated the safe range successfully. (I'm not counting the 2020 Marc, every regular strategy failed in that crash). (5) Safe levels are well defined in my range I'm always defining safe price levels (based on the nearest short term high/low points). In my case these levels are well defined inside the Iron Condor Hunter range: CONCLUSION: I've opened an Iron Condor on IWM (Russel ETF) Profit target: 20% Max profit: 68$ Max loss: 332$ Tasty IVR: 13 POP: 69% Expiry: 42 days Strategy: Neutral IC Buy 1 IWM April16' 185 Put Sell 1 IWM April16' 189 Put Sell 1 IWM April16' 244 Call Buy 1 IWM April16' 248 Call Stop: Closing immediately if daily candle is closing below put strikes or above call strikes. Safe levels (190,205,229) are defending my borders. Take profit strategy: I'm taking at the 55% of max.profit in this case. Inside the curve I'm usually in profit. If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW, and follow my fresh ideas ( @mrAnonymCrypto on tradingview ).
AMEX:IWM
by TanukiTrade
10
DOW JONES debit spread play with good chanceI've opened a LONG CALL VERTICAL spread yesterday end of day for Dow Jones. Correction maybe consolidated, I'm expecting some short squeeze soon. Otherwise the probability of profit is godd, and the trade is manageable because of lower strikes. (1) Relative Implied Volatility is low I'm using my Relative implied volatility indicator to determine the credit/debit type of option trades. Low relative implied volatility justifies debit option strategy (longing options) instead of creadit strategy (shorting options) (2) Neutral RSI - no oversold or overbought Uptrend still holding after a quick correction. My Smooth RSI indicator is in no one's land. There is plenty of room up and down. (3) Observing other Down Jones instrument Every Down Jones instrument pretty same indicator values for RSI and RIV too: DJI, YM, DJIA, DIA CONCLUSION: I'm using LONG CALL VERTICAL - Buy 1 DIA April16' 305 Call Sell 1 DIA April16' 310 Call Debit call spread for 3.92 debit Probability of Profit: 67% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 26% Max profit: 105$ Max loss at expiry: 395$ (Buy Power) Max loss with my risk management: ~120$ Tasty IVR: 3.1 Expiry: 38days Stop/my risk management: Closing immediately if daily candle is closing below $309 Take profit strategy: I'm taking at the 55% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order. (at 4.55 debit) If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW, and follow my fresh ideas ( @mrAnonymCrypto on tradingview ).
AMEX:DIALong
by TanukiTrade
6
bear flag on AIG and subdued volatility: put debit spreadAIG currently is trading with an IV30 of 19.6, making its IV Rank 21.8. This low rank indicates that the options will be cheap, and encourages debit spreads, regardless of being bullish or bearish. These spreads will profit when volatility mean-reverts to higher levels. Because of this well-developed bear flag, we are expecting a continuation of the prior downtrend, thus reversing the immediate uptrend characterized by higher highs and higher lows. To profit off of this, we are doing a put debit vertical by longing the July 26th 54 puts and writing the 53s, for a max potential profit of 41 and capped potential loss of 59, per contract. This is particularly cheap because they expire prior to the expected earnings announcement on August 1st, '19. The break even price is 53.41 because it is being done for a debit of .58. There is max profit below the short strike K = 53.
NYSE:AIGShort
by LaurenTrading
ACB Long ATM StraddleCannabis stocks have the possibility to move a lot in a short period of time, as regulatory changes on whims have huge impact on the market size to which Cannabis companies can sell their products. Although our stance is that the cannabis industry is likely to become even more volatile as more regulatory developments and sector-wide shake-outs leave only the leading firms, the reason we are particularly interested in the ACB long straddle is because of the low IVR. We are entering into a near-the-money straddle on $ACB by longing the July calls and puts with a strike of $7.50, for a $.70 debit. The breakevens are below 6.80 and above 8.20. As a long straddle, the maximum loss occurs if the stock price S is at the strike k of 7.50 at maturity in July. Taking long positions on both of these options is very cheap because the implied volatility is subdued -- with an Implied Volatility Rank of 4.3. Also, Aurora in particular has not joined big partnerships, contrasting the alignments with Canopy Growth ($CGC) and Constellation Brands ($STZ), Cronos Group ($CRON) and Altria ($MO), Tilray ($TLRY) with Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) and Novatris ($NVS), and HEXO($HEXO) with Molson Coors ($TAP). Announcement of any partnership, which is likely as billionaire private equity specialist Nelson Peltz recently joined with the intent to line up possible partners, would have a huge impact on the stock price. In January, Aurora Chief Corporate Officer Cam Battley told Business Insider that he would be looking to release “hemp-derived CBD strategy” into the U.S. market in the “next few months” in January. Five months later, we still don’t know what the surprise is. It could come within the next few months.
A
by LaurenTrading
WYNN -- NONEARNINGS PREMIUM SELLING PLAYSome stuff hits my high IVR/high IV radar over and over again. WYNN is one of those, with an IVR currently at 100 and an IV at 81. Some caution is in order, though, since ordinarily I like going 45 days out and WYNN's earnings are due to be announced on 2/2, so I want any setup to expire somewhat before that so I don't get caught in a volatility expansion (that being said, how much more can it expand?). Here's the setup (which I'll look to take off somewhat in advance of expiry), since it's getting in a bit tight to earnings: Jan 22nd 45/77 short strangle POP%: 79% (ridiculous, quite frankly for a play that is nearly worth 2.00 in credit) Max Profit: $196/contract BPE: ~$615 BE's: 43.04/78.96
NASDAQ:WYNN
by NaughtyPines
EARNINGS PLAYS THIS COMING WEEK -- FDX, ORCLOnly two earnings plays stick out to me this coming week -- FDX and ORCL, both of which announce earnings on 12/16 (Wednesday) after market close, so look to put on setups before NY close on Wednesday. Currently, FDX's 52 week IVR is at 54 (IV 34), which isn't stellar, but it's at 92 for the past six months. Moreover, there is pretty good credit to be had whether you go short strangle or iron condor, so I imagine I'll play that one way or another if the IV sticks in there. ORCL (IVR 75/IV 35) isn't looking all that hot, frankly, because I can't get 1.00 in credit with either a short strangle or iron condor (a Dec 24 34.5/39.5 short strangle will only get you a .61 credit at the mid price right now, which isn't anything to go crazy over; a same expiry iron condor just isn't worth it). Nevertheless, we could see a greater volatility pop toward earnings that makes it a little bit more worthwhile such that I'll play just because there isn't that much else worthwhile to do ... . (Of course, there is that all FOMC thing next week, too).
NYSE:FDX
by NaughtyPines
HES -- POST EARNINGS HIGH VOL PLAYWith a dwindling earnings calendar and some buying power to put to good use, I'm looking to go where the IVR/IV takes me. With an IVR of 74 and fairly decent IV of 43, HES popped up toward the top of the Dough "Notable Stocks" grid (sorted by IVR). Here's my set up: Dec 24 51/68 Short Strangle POP%: 75% Max Profit: $150/contract BPE: ~$597/contract BE's: 49.50/69.50 Notes: The underlying isn't the most liquid thing, so you may not get a fill at this particular price and might have to monkey around with it a bit. Me, I'm just going to enter the order and if it fills, it fills. If it doesn't, I'll look at it again next week to still if there's still premium in the play. As always, I'll look to take the trade off at 50% max profit so I can redeploy the capital elsewhere.
NYSE:HES
by NaughtyPines
2