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IX

VXF - Roll M1/V1 VXZ into next WednesdayThere are complications into next week. In order to avoid the Dramas associated with these opposing forces - permit me to infer the extremes have never quite been this degree of a Cluster F_ck. Fail on Drama, apologies _____________________________________________________________________ An "offsides trade" is again forming as I see 4X Negative Divergences begin to Form once again on Larger Daily and Weekly Timeframes. Delta is being hedged - simply not in a way most are paying attention to... typical and opportunity. ______________________________________________________________________ I am seeing 2 very distinct patterns within the Delta Squaring. Both create immense Risk of what should be referred to as the Cascade Trade. The over/under will depend on how aggressive the Operators become today, should they be unable to unwilling to support Price today, it is a very large Negative Omen. There exists a Protection Trade well below and not above. ________________________________________________________________________ \We will begin to see which way this breaks shortly - Roll/Settle remains ahead. Within the Pivot, whichever way it breaks ST will reinforce the Trend.
CBOE:VX2!
by HK_L61
4
VIX - Vol Crush Ratios nearing extremesThe sudden sharp drop in implied volatility has triggered a tightly correlated decline in the Options Complex Values. Friday's Gap Up on the Job Report let a large amount of air out. Volumes on the ES, SPY, SPX were abysmal once again. We suggested that TECH was due for a pullback based upon the TLT, 10Yr Yields and a number of additional causations stated. The ROC for 10Yr yields caught many offsides, as they were NET Long TLT and ZB/ZN. We are seeing signs of a repeat of the February 10th ROC breakaway from 1.13 to 1.71. A "Rampage of Rates" on the long end of the Curve demonstrated it wasn't messing around as profligate Fiscal Policies were met with Revolt. Yields began the highest ROCs in their history - A clear warning sign of issues to come. The Federal Reserve crossed the Rubicon with "Tools" - Yield Curve Control (YCC) to force Yields lower beginning in April to test the arrangements. The FED then doubled down in May and June to assure calm. Since January there has been a large accumulation of Bonds across the Curve - a clear warning sign. One which implies the return of Capital at an assured loss as Inflation is running well above 17%. "Panic" set in then and fear has only continued to compound. We remain aggressive buyers of Volatility at levels. Recall the $0.25 Volatility Options bought to open immediately before the February 2020 collapse. Wall street ALWAYS gets it fill, we are waiting for this repeat on scale for a large correction. Not a collapse, but a correction, Currencies Wars are well under way. The DX remains well collared for now: 92/93. Summer trading is most often "Dodgy" as participation remains Low and the AIQC can move Price just about anywhere it chooses - wanting the high fill. We are closely watching implied volatility for new fills. We closed our range trades from 20 to 21.40 with solid gains and are now waiting to see if the CASH or SPOT VIX will trade to 15.00 to 15.50, it is there we will pick the pieces back up into Roll/Settlement.
TVC:VIX
by HK_L61
7