BTC on high time frame
"Hello traders, focusing on BTC on high time frames, the $102,000 level (referred to as the vector level) is crucial for price action. If the price convincingly breaches and closes below this level on the 4-hour or higher time frames, it suggests a potential move to the downside.
However, if the price merely sweeps liquidity and forms shadows on the high time frames without closing below the critical level, it indicates the potential for further upward momentum towards new higher highs."
If you have any more details to add or need further assistance, feel free to let me know!
J-DXY
GOLD - WAVE 4 CORRECTION TO $2,800 (UPDATE)Gold has once again rejected the 0.618 Fib level & dropped back into the lower bound of the range zone overnight, which is what we like to see.
But overall, we remain within the range so we exercise patience & keep an eye out for any possible alternatives which might happen for Gold. Nice profits for us either way.
EURUSD | Bearish Divergence | Bearish MomentumCurrently, EURUSD is clearly in a downtrend, consistently forming lower lows and lower highs, confirming a bearish market structure. According to Dow Theory, the recent bullish momentum has now shifted into a confirmed downtrend. Additionally, the 1-hour trendline support has been broken, signaling weakness in the previous bullish leg. We now anticipate a pullback toward the recently broken structure or resistance zone, where further bearish continuation is likely.
On the 1-hour timeframe, a well-formed bearish divergence on the RSI adds confluence to our bias, indicating weakening bullish momentum and a potential trend continuation to the downside. Since our initial entry was slightly late, we’ve strategically placed a limit order near the retest zone and executed a partial position at the current market price to secure early exposure. Overall, structure and momentum both align with short-term bearish sentiment.
The tariff legal zig-zagWith different US courts firing "shots" at each other over the legality of tariffs, the market is taking a bit of a pause from accelerating further. Let's dig in!
DJ:DJI
TVC:SPX
TVC:NDQ
TVC:DXY
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Gold XAUUSD Move 29 May 2025Price Action: The price recently approached the 3,320-3,325 resistance zone (highlighted by horizontal lines) and rejected it, forming a bearish candlestick pattern (e.g., shooting star / doji). This suggests strong selling pressure at this level.
Trendline: The trendline from the recent high shows a potential double top or head-and-shoulders pattern, reinforcing the likelihood of a reversal.
Support Levels: Immediate support lies around 3290/80 (previous consolidation zone).
Volume (implied): A spike in selling volume at 3,320-3,325 could confirm the rejection.
Analysis: The rejection at 3,320-3,325, combined with the trendline break, indicates a potential sell-off. The market may be shifting from bullish to bearish momentum, especially if the price closes below the recent low.
Signal: Sell at 3,320-3,325 if the price rejects again with a bearish candle confirmation. Target 3,200-3,250, stop loss above 3,335.
Falling towards pullback support?US Dollar index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 98.89
1st Support: 97.98
1st Resistance: 100.09
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DXY: Bulls Are Winning! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break above the current local range around 99.377 will confirm the new direction upwards with the target being the next key level of 99.823 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
XAUUSD - Will Gold Continue to Fall?!Gold is trading in its ascending channel on the 1-hour timeframe, between the EMA200 and EMA50. I expect the direction ahead for gold to be bullish and if it breaks the downtrend line, we can look for buying opportunities.
The U.S. dollar rose following a decision by the United States Court of International Trade to revoke tariffs imposed by Donald Trump. Since the Trump administration, there have been continual developments regarding tariffs, and this latest ruling, which blocks Trump’s retaliatory tariffs, has stirred uncertainty and confusion over its legal validity. The ruling also triggered a correction in gold’s upward trend.
According to the U.S. Constitution, the power to impose tariffs officially resides with Congress. However, since 1962, much of this authority has been delegated to the executive branch. Courts have historically upheld this delegation to the president, but this recent judgment casts doubt on the legitimacy of such executive powers.
The pressing question now is whether Trump can circumvent the ruling. Could he potentially ignore it or take counteraction? Any move by Trump in response would undoubtedly ripple through the financial markets.
Goldman Sachs has characterized the court’s decision as a new obstacle for Trump’s trade strategy, though it notes the ruling only applies to part of the tariffs.Analysts at the firm believe Trump may find legal or procedural means to work around the court’s decision, possibly introducing new strategies to maintain his tariff agenda.
Citing customs data, ING commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey reported that despite record-high prices, China’s gold imports reached their highest level in eleven months last month. Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have surged by more than 20%.
Total gold imports climbed to 127.5 metric tons, marking a 73% increase from the previous month. This sharp rise followed the People’s Bank of China’s issuance of new import quotas to select commercial banks in April. With a year-to-date gain exceeding 20%, gold hit an all-time high of $3,500 per ounce in April. Key drivers of this rally include geopolitical risk and sustained purchases by central banks.
In the broader metals sector, China’s refined copper production in April reached a new monthly record, rising 9% year-on-year to 1.25 million metric tons, even as processing fees remained low. Meanwhile, lead production declined by 1% from the previous year to 664,000 tons, while zinc output edged up by 0.3% to 576,000 tons.
According to the International Aluminium Institute, global aluminum production in April remained flat compared to the prior month, averaging 201,100 metric tons per day. However, on a year-over-year basis, output increased by 2.24%.
USDJPY - Will the dollar weakness stop?!The USDJPY currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its ascending channel. In case of correction due to the release of today's economic data, we can see a downward trend and then see the demand zone and buy in that range with an appropriate risk-reward ratio. A credible break of the indicated resistance range will pave the way for the currency pair to rise.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba emphasized that investment is more crucial to economic growth than tariffs, reaffirming Japan’s continued commitment to negotiating the removal of U.S. trade tariffs. He also pointed to encouraging signs in the Japanese economy following wage increases and offered an optimistic outlook on the country’s recovery.
Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, speaking on Wednesday, warned that significant volatility in ultra-long-term bond yields could affect short-term borrowing costs, which in turn might exert a stronger impact on the broader economy. His remarks highlight the BOJ’s growing focus on recent fluctuations in long-dated bond yields, which could influence the board’s decision next month regarding the pace of its bond purchase reduction.
Ueda explained that in Japan, short- and medium-term interest rates tend to have more direct influence on the economy than ultra-long yields, due to the maturity structure of household and corporate debt. However, he acknowledged in a parliamentary session that sharp moves in ultra-long yields can also affect long- and even short-term bond yields indirectly.
Turning to Friday’s inflation report, expectations suggest that overall inflation remained subdued in April, as falling gasoline prices provided some relief to household budgets. However, core inflation—excluding food and energy—remains stubbornly high.
The PCE inflation index is anticipated to have risen 2.2% in April from a year earlier, slightly down from 2.3% in March, marking the lowest level since last September. Federal Reserve officials are still awaiting more data on how newly imposed tariffs are feeding into the broader economy, making it unlikely that the recent moderation in inflation will prompt a rate cut in the near term.
Although the Fed’s preferred inflation measure may have reached its lowest point since September, a second consecutive month of encouraging price data is unlikely to be sufficient to justify easing interest rates.
According to a survey conducted by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal, economists expect Friday’s report—covering inflation, income, and spending—from the Bureau of Economic Analysis to show that consumer prices rose 2.2% year-over-year through April. This would mark the lowest reading since September and a potential turning point in the Fed’s battle against post-pandemic inflation.
Goldman Sachs economists noted that falling gasoline prices have more than offset the inflationary impact of new tariffs introduced by the Trump administration. However, they cautioned that this dynamic may not last, as retailers are likely to start passing along the added import tax costs to consumers in the coming months.
Several Federal Reserve officials, concerned that tariffs could reignite inflation, have stated that they will wait to assess the full impact of these trade policies on the economy before making changes to the federal funds rate—which directly affects borrowing costs on everything from mortgages and auto loans to credit cards.
US500 - Will the stock market reach ATH?!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. I expect the index to continue moving, and on the other hand, if the index declines towards a certain zone, you can also look for the next S&P long positions with a risk-reward ratio.
Yesterday, a U.S. federal court halted the implementation of President Trump’s “Freedom Day” tariffs. The U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that these tariffs exceeded the legal authority granted to the president and unanimously decided to revoke them. Nonetheless, Trump still retains the right to appeal the ruling.
Following the court’s decision, President Trump promptly filed an appeal. In response, the White House issued a statement asserting, “The decision on how to handle a national emergency should not fall into the hands of unelected judges.”
Meanwhile, the market reacted strongly to Nvidia’s latest financial report. The company’s stock surged by as much as 5.8% in after-hours trading, before settling at a 4.8% gain compared to the previous day.
This bullish movement reflects investors’ confidence in Nvidia’s continued strong performance.
Nvidia is actively expanding into new markets, including the Middle East—an indication that the company is poised for sustained growth even if its presence in China is constrained.
The rally in Nvidia’s stock didn’t just lift semiconductor companies; broader markets followed suit. The S&P 500 index climbed to 6,005.75 points, representing a 1.7% increase from the prior session.
According to the company’s announcement, Nvidia posted $44.1 billion in revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, marking a 69% increase year-over-year and slightly surpassing analysts’ expectations. Revenue from data center operations rose 73% to reach $39.1 billion.
CEO Jensen Huang stated: “Our Blackwell NVL72 AI supercomputer—designed for reasoning and acting as a ‘thinking machine’—is now being mass-produced by system builders and cloud service providers.” He added, “There is enormous global demand for Nvidia’s AI infrastructure. Over the past year alone, AI inference token generation has grown tenfold. As AI agents become mainstream, the demand for AI compute will continue to surge.”
A Reuters poll now projects that the S&P 500 will reach 5,900 by the end of 2025—down from the 6,500 level forecast in February. Similarly, the Dow Jones index is expected to close 2025 at 43,708, compared to the previous projection of 47,024 from the February survey.
Separately, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) reported that the increase in U.S. bank profits was largely driven by growth in noninterest income. Bank earnings in the first quarter of 2025 rose by 5.8%, reaching $70.6 billion. While overall asset quality remains favorable, the commercial real estate loan portfolios continue to show signs of weakness. The number of “problem banks” declined by three, bringing the total down to 63. The banking industry also reported a slowdown in lending growth; the annual loan growth rate for the first quarter was just 3%, down from the pre-pandemic average of 4.9%.
Gold Still bearish for the momentLooking for gold to fill in a Bullish gap before I consider longs. price is pretty bearish this week and im thinking it due to the contract roll and month end close. Looking for price to find some area of support before considering going Long. As always we wait for the Killzones.
GBP/USD Breakout (28.05.2025)The GBP/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.3424
2nd Support – 1.3380
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eurusd 20 short-term market update short it exit 1160🏆 EURUSD Market Update m20 short-term trade
📊 Technical Outlook
🔸Short-term: BEARS 1160
🔸5 waves impulse completed
🔸1090/1240/1140/1350/1270/1410
🔸a/b/c/ correction 1160
🔸short sell and exit at 1160
🔸Price Target Bears: 1160
Key recent developments in EURUSD
📉 The U.S. dollar weakened as investors grew concerned over President Trump's proposed tax and spending bill, which could significantly increase the national debt
📈 The euro reached a one-month high after President Trump delayed the implementation of 50% tariffs on European Union imports, providing a temporary boost to investor confidence
🗣️ European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde suggested that the euro could become a global alternative to the U.S. dollar, contingent on strengthening the EU's financial and security infrastructure
📊 Technical analysis indicates that the EUR/USD pair may edge higher within a range of 1.1360 to 1.1420, though upward momentum is slowing
📉 Soft inflation data from France has increased selling pressure on the euro, as markets anticipate a stronger divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank
📉 The EUR/USD pair is under bearish pressure, trading near 1.1350, as the U.S. dollar finds demand ahead of upcoming economic data and ongoing Senate tax debates
SELL DXYThis week the USD has been retracing, most traders are going long but we know how this goes. Based of our strategy and approach we are still very much bearish on the USD. Our positions for shorts are at 99.916 and adding more shorts at 100.500. Our targets remain at 94.760. If you are catching this set up now then your stops should be above 1011.300. Use proper risk management and risk what you can afford to loose. Best of luck folks.
GOLD - WAVE 4 CORRECTION TO $2,800 (UPDATE)After hitting both of our buying targets of $3,274 & $3,318, Gold pushed a little higher than expected. But price came back down again & is following our sell bias very nicely!
With Wave B now supposedly complete, Wave C bearish momentum can now continue down. Gold has been extremely bearish since the start of this week.
the trap has layerswhat if i told you the dxy was not done yet,
what if i told you, there was 1 more push up,
1 more test before it truly breaks and starts a bull market.
what if i told you that on that final test, that final push up,
the crypto market breaks and takes everything.
---
you probably wouldn't believe me.
---
looking at the dxy as a simple zig-zag with a complex flat in the b-wave.
once wave b is completed, at about 110-111,
i predict it drops down, deep
and while it drops,
it triggers alt season.
🌙