ETHUSD: Double Top into A Bearish 5-0 Breakdown (Extended)Updated Commentary: ETH has extended a bit further than projected as the Pattern Completed at the 0.618 but ETH gapped into the 0.786 instead. The gap up aligned with an upside gap fill on the CME futures as well as a gap fill on the grayscale ETH futures ETF $ETHE. The easier move from here to simply add to the ETH shorts and adjust the stop to be above the previous highs while sizing up at the 0.786 and playing off this gap higher as an anomaly. Beyond this, my view on ETH at the current 0.786 retrace remains the same as the original Idea posted as ETH rose into the initial 0.618 PCZ the details of which I will also include once again below as it still remains relevant.
ETH for the last 5 years has been developing a Double Topping pattern which has put in a series of lower highs during the most recent 2nd run up. As we've confirmed these lower highs we've broken down below trendline and are finding resistance at the trendline which happens to have confluence with the PCZ of a Bearish 5-0 wave formation near a 0.786 retrace.
As we begin to find weakness and Bearish price action begins I suspect price will make it's way towards the neckline of the double top aligning with the $880 price level if ETH breaks below that level there will be no significant support until it reaches the all-time 0.382 retrace down at around $92.10.
In short it seems ETH is in the early stages of a macro breakdown which could result in value declines greater than 80%.
I also suspect that we will see many of the assets that ran up significantly going into this week to sharply reverse those run-ups as this week comes to a close and the new week begins mainly due to the effects of OpEx, this includes: Bitcoin, MSTR, SOL, XLC, META, and BTBT. Long-dated Put accumulation on these assets at these levels is far easier to manage than naked short positions and that's how I will go about positioning here.
