US Stock In Play: $ZI$ZI very clustered chart at first look but plenty of significant technical build up in this name
-double bottom basing chart with RS since feb
-2 weeks price coiling between both VWAPs IPO and ATH
-price action rejection at 200MA on 3 period since jan
all points to $61 breakout
Jeffsuntrader
US Stock In Play: $CAR$CAR displaying volatility contraction since Q3 ER. have a very defined 4-months DTL with flattening RS and KMAs since late January.
today $CAR is on track for its 5th up days in a row, remaining above all its KMA to rising 10/20 MAs since breaking out of the DTL last week.
US Stock In Play: $CARG$CARG bouncing off its VWAP from Q3 ER to rising 10&20MA. it underwent 6 consecutive days of low volume retracement after rallying +43.96% post Q4 ER to fantastic YoY growth numbers (EPS +34%, Sales +124%)
the last significant VWAP to reclaim is from Q4 ER at $43.05
US Stock In Play: $NI$NI traded through the week without closing below Monday's low (daily average $ volume of $100mil), displaying resilience to the general market weakness.
Currently a bullish flag formation, sitting on confluence of VWAP (from previous low) and 10/20 MA.
23/2 ER
US Stock In Play: $SLB$SLB pennant consolidation within its high tight flag formation is still in making. on monthly, it has just barely traded beyond its breakout level of the inverse h&s pattern. textbook measured move is $53, another +37% away. ER Q4''21 (YoY)EPS 0.41 (+86%)Sales 6.22b (+13%)
US Stock In Play: $RYAN$RYAN 6mth old insurance name IPO. based off (-12%) the January market weakness and looking to reclaim its ATH close of $40.36. RS is at ATH.
trading above all critical VWAPs, MAs. a trading idea to take on BO for further trending action.
US Stock In Play: $NEWR$NEWR very constructive coiling pattern, and obeying between ATH VWAP resistance and pre-ER trough VWAP.
wouldn't take a trade now as ER Post-M later where price action are binary event, a gamble.
if first bar trades to the upside of triangle tml, it is trend resumption BO. WL
US Stock In Play: $LLNW$LLNW flagging the 2nd time after its recent ER.
YoY Q4'21:
EPS +167%
Sales +14%
past year price action is reflecting RS against its sector $XLK. sitting on VWAP support at $4.00 & all major MAs. beautiful 1 year base pattern.
Bitcoin
Jeff Sun
@jeffsuntrading
·
29m
$BTCUSD has a 0.87 positive coefficient to $SPX from 2 yrs ago (Feb 2020)
on technical perspective, the biggest risk of a another washout in the stock market may come from a bear flag breakdown, with major double top follow through from #Bitcoin
#bitcoin needs a relief rally
US Stock In Play: $EXCUtilities name are usually not a go-to for swing traders as there is tendency of choppy price action around its MA, and low ATR%
$EXC however, behaves superbly as an utility stock with history of trading consecutive up days on several occasion in 2021 alone. ATH currently
US Stock In Play: $PTEN$PTEN is a onshore drilling contractor for o&g operators in US and CA.
RS as it traded to one month high, higher lows since dec'21 with rising in all MAs of various timeframe. cup and 2 years cup and handle pattern.
we have a good 2 weeks to Q4 earnings for some risk cushion.
US Stock In Play: $BROS$BROS is now looking interesting to me with its volatility contraction since Nov'21. +17.6% over the last 2 days but this may just be the beginning as it just broke above its DTL.
$55.50 would trigger a base breakout. $50.80 to nimble some test position above 50MA
The Weekly Picture: $SPX vs $RSPThe earnings season enters one of its busiest phases this week with tech giants Microsoft ($MSFT), Apple ($AAPL) and Tesla ($TSLA) are due to report. Investors will be seeking reassurance from earnings result after last week’s selloff, but market volatility looks set to continue for now.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to signal that the central bank is on course to deliver its first rate hike since 2018 in March, in a bid to tackle soaring inflation. There is also data on U.S. Q4 GDP.
Here’s what you need to know to start your week.
1. Earnings
Tech giants Microsoft ($MSFT), Apple ($AAPL) and Tesla ($TSLA) are among the big-name companies due to report in what will be a hectic week of earnings results, with investors looking to separate pandemic success stories from fundamentally strong companies.
FAANG darling Netflix ($NFLX) tumbled over 20% on Friday, weighing on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, after it forecast new subscriber growth in the first quarter would be less than half of analysts' predictions.
Microsoft, which reports Tuesday, is expected to report quarterly revenue of more than $50 billion for the first time, according to data compiled by FactSet.
Tesla and Apple, reporting Wednesday and Thursday respectively, are expected to post record profits according to FactSet.
Beyond tech, there are a host of other big companies reporting including 3M ($MMM), GE ($GE), IBM ($IBM), Intel ($INTC), Caterpillar ($CAT) and American Express ($AXP). Boeing ($BA), Mastercard ($MA), Visa ($V), McDonald's ($MCD), Johnson & Johnson ($JNJ), and Colgate-Palmolive ($CL) are also scheduled to report.
2. Fed to signal March rate hike
Investors are looking to the Fed for more clarity on the future path of interest rates after data last week showed U.S. inflation rising to near forty-year highs.
Jerome Powell is expected to indicate that the Fed will wind up its bond purchasing stimulus program on schedule at its March meeting and raise interest rates by a quarter point from current levels close to zero at the same meeting.
With markets already pricing in roughly four rate hikes this year investors will also be focusing on what the Fed says about its almost $9 trillion balance sheet.
Markets currently expect the Fed to start trimming the balance sheet later in the year as a way to tighten monetary policy. The minutes of the Fed’s December meeting indicated that officials held lengthy discussions about reducing bond holdings.
Any indications that the balance sheet could be shrunk faster than in the past could extend the selloff in Treasuries and tech shares.
Key Economic Calendar (Weekly)
On Thursday the U.S. is to release advance data on fourth quarter gross domestic product with economists expecting annualized growth of 5.3%. Expectations have been pared back in recent weeks as rising coronavirus cases, driven by the Omicron variant hit economic activity.
All times listed are EST
Monday
3:30: Germany – Manufacturing PMI: seen to retreat to 57.0 from 57.4.
Wednesday
14:00: US – Fed Interest Rate Decision
14:30: US – FOMC Press Conference
Thursday
8:30: US – GDP: anticipated to have more than doubled, to 5.3% from 2.3%.
Top 3 Leading and Lagging Sectors (Weekly)
1. $XLE (Energy) -0.92%
2. $XLP (Consumer Staples) -1.21%
3. $XLU (Utilities) -1.49%
Benchmark: $SPY -5.72%
1. $XLY (Consumer Discretionary) -8.62%
2. $XLF (Financial) -7.42%
3. $XLB (Materials) -6.16%
Market Breath (Weekly)
% of Stocks Above 200 DMA = 31.30% (-28.90%)
% of Stocks Above 50 DMA = 22.20% (-47.16%)
Market Technicals (Distribution Cycle Count: Day 6)
$SPX (S&P 500) vs $RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight) – (Net High/Low -688)
Markets look set to remain turbulent in the coming week with investors focused on the Fed and earnings.
In a continuation of the tech selloff that has pushed the Nasdaq into correction territory, Wall Street’s main indexes closed sharply lower last week. The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq posted their largest weekly percentage declines since the start of the pandemic in March 2020. $SPX further declined -5.68%, after breaching the 4,610 support highlighted last week. $SPX is now trading below all major moving averages, the first time since March 2020. The $SPX Net High/Lows also affirmed the bearish theme with further deterioration of -688 companies within its constituents, similarly the lowest level since March 2020.
Till date, $SPX have corrected -8.73% from its high (4th January 2022). $RSP have corrected -6.81% from its high (5th January 2022).
With $RSP trading at its highest daily sessional volume on Friday (since 2004), we are likely to see a bounce off 200MA for the indexes this week, if $RSP could hold its Friday low of $152.82.
The immediate support to watch for $SPX this week is at 4,330 level, the previous major low established in $SPX during October 2021.
US Stock In Play: $UTZ$UTZ one of the few names in my WL that could hold its 50MA. base with inverse head and shoulder pattern.
decent fundamentals but key for me now is price action of name that could hold a market sell down.
US Stock In Play: $BABA (Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd.)$BABA is caught in a 15-month downtrend channel but there could be short term upside opportunity ahead.
trading above Q2 earnings VWAP & 10/20MA. also attempted to re-capture its 50MA, with MA convergences taking place. price action behavior is very similar to oct'21 period.
US Stock In Play: $GXO$GXO exhibited RS for the whole of this week. HVC out of its wedge pattern but still below ATH VWAP.
would be wise to take a position only above 50MA since it is just barely $2.50 away. it gives more affirmation to the momentum that it may be building up
$DNAY$DNAY episodic move on 29th dec (+39%) upon announcement of partnership with $PFE to advance its DNA platform.
it has since broke out of its 6 months downtrend channel, trading above all its major MAs. continues to ride above its 10MA since 2022.
flagging for another pump
US Stock In Play: $SNOW$SNOW setup for a mean reversion swing on its hammer candlestick pattern, sitting on its rising 200MA.
a reversal from this juncture would paint out a cup and handle pattern on its weekly
YoY
Q3 EPS +113%
Q3 Sales +110%
US Stock In Play: $DOV$DOV very resilient to market weakness, after breaking out of its cup and handle pattern. you wouldn't find many large cap name like this still sitting above its 10MA right now.
Up/Down Volume Ratio 140%
US Stock In Play: $CFLT$CFLT bounced off a significant price support, an area of value with significant buying interest.
this would be the 3rd time $58 held through the 3 period of market weakness (Oct'21, Dec'21 and now)
US Stock In Play: $ZS$ZS supported on 10/20MA crossover, along with AVWAP from high.
significant day as it will be contesting a rising 50DMA again this week at $332.55. relative weakness is displayed on RS's 50MA against price 50MA.
US Stock In Play: $QCOM$QCOM setup on both daily and weekly displays a pretty HTF with 50DMA / 10WMA catching up to its current consolidation.
this is one of the few semicon setup that have not rallied beyond its ATH this week
US Stock In Play: $MF$MF got chopped out once in earlier in december.
current price action remains constructive and tight (volatility on ATR contunue to tread lower),along with a longer term cup and handle pattern. looking to challenge AVWAP low again ($4.50)
