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Swiss franc falls despite SNB Jordan's hawkish messageThe Swiss franc has fallen considerably on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8950, up 0.59% on the day. Swiss National Bank President Jordan reiterated a hawkish message on Wednesday that he sent out a week ago. Jordan said that he could not rule out further rate hikes, noting that current monetary policy was not restrictive enough. In other words, the SNB is unhappy with inflation levels, which although relatively low at 2.6%, have been above the Bank's target of 0-2% since February 2022. Inflation fell from 2.9% to 2.6% in April, and there is one final inflation report before the SNB's next meeting on June 22nd. The SNB has not shied away from being aggressive and delivering oversize hikes as high as 0.75% in the current rate-hike cycle, and we could see another hike if inflation doesn't fall close to 2.0% in the next release. The Swiss franc continues to appreciate, much to the consternation of SNB policymakers, as a stronger Swissy makes exports more expensive. The Swiss franc has soared about 500 points since March 1st and Jordan made sure to remind his listeners that the central bank was prepared to intervene in the forex markets if necessary. In the US, unemployment claims surprised to the upside, rising to 264,000, up from 245,000 and higher than the consensus estimate of 242,000. This was the highest total since January 2022, and although it's just one report, it will likely raise speculation that the labour market is showing cracks. On the inflation front, the Producers Price Index, taking the lead from CPI, softened in April. The headline reading fell from 2.7% to 2.3% (2.4% est). The core rate dropped from 3.4% to 3.2% (3.3% est). USD/CHF has pushed past resistance at 0.8907.  The next resistance line is 0.8994 0.8819 and 0.8732 are providing support
by OANDA
IS IT Finally Time To Buy NIO !!!. Nio is one of the dominant players in China's hot electric vehicle (EV) market , and the company had to suspend operations at a couple of factories last month as lockdowns were imposed. Fearing Nio's production and deliveries to take a beating, investors dumped the EV stock -- Nio shares lost nearly 33% value in just one month through Nov. 9. One day later, Nio proved its critics wrong. The EV manufacturer beat third-quarter revenue estimates and sees significant growth in car deliveries in the coming months. And Nio's growth plans are even bigger. So if you've been watching Nio stock plunge this year but haven't pulled the trigger yet, it's finally time to buy the EV stock. Now Backed by 29% higher deliveries, Nio generated roughly $1.8 billion in revenue in Q3, up 32.6% year over year WHY WE DECIDE IN REVENUE TO BUY NIO AGAIN ? Nio is planning to launch five new models in 2023 , is still eyeing a mass-market brand , and expects its gross margin to hit 20% to 25% next year if battery costs fall. The company has a lot of cash, so it has the leeway to invest billions of dollars in the research and development of new models. That's what the company plans to do to remain a prominent player in the world's largest EV market, China, even as it expands its footprint in Europe. Europe is also the only international market Nio has ventured into so far. The markets may expect Nio to grow even faster, but Nio's confidence in delivering a record number of vehicles and growing its revenue by 75% to 94% in the fourth quarter despite macro headwinds is nothing to sneeze at. That alone should reinstate investors' faith in this EV stock that has slumped so dramatically to prices last seen more than two years ago. from technical view we see that stock price is going to hit 30$ in 2023 as primary target ***All of the above are published for educational purpose which is not an investment recommendation REVENUE RESEARCH AMMAN / JORDAN November 12
NYSE:NIOLong
by REVENUE_JO
BOAKR: not just a classy name? GO BULLSi did a bit of reverse analysis on this one, and it makes a great case for the Bulls. from time to time i do things a little bit backwards just to see what the charts reveal to me. i was thankful to see that it gave me some insight to the period of time where the Bulls won championship after championship. this is evident by the appearance of a basketball mid-chart. i was living in Chicago from the time that streak started and when i moved, the streak was over. i am the basketball on that chart. you can also see other heads - they do not look impressed. we've got Charles Barkley, Karl Malone, Dominique Wilkins - none of them have ever heard of me and when my name is mentioned, that is the expression on their face. the charts tell all. looks pretty bullish for that period. i realize there are other dates depicted on the chart.
Long
by sweetmusic999
ridethepig | CHF for the Yearly Close📌 CHF for the Yearly Close An excellent swing move, which is extraordinarily difficult to spot. You should note that what has played out has been completely carefully controlled and exclusively on the FED side. Whereas SNB have been seeking salvation against the inflows, the USD cycle is playing out by default and monetary error more than anything else. You cannot solve a monetary issue with private debt by issuing more private debt. As we know, the flows which have dealt considerable damage to buyers can constitute a good criteria for the evaluation of the next pivot level in play at 0.870x. There is no way to avoid the test, buyers need to be careful not to get hemmed in as a breach will threaten a -10% sweep which is what I am eyeballing for 2021. Switzerland will act as a suitable haven; SNB will threaten to gain time but only making the breakthrough harder in my opinion. Not the most technical of charts...shows the levels we need to exploit and when broken, advance the units and swing the bat. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | CHF Market Commentary 03.12.2020Another interesting play where buyers can win the flow. So, the idea to outguess a temporary floor in USDCHF is correct as we are approach very 'rich' levels for sellers. If buyers are going to have a late breakfast 0.890x is the level to load. Another few pips down and it would be difficult to defend because of the horizontal support. For those that remember the previous attempt we are tracking exactly the same attack. As we all know, the philosophy of a minor swing, is only for the evaluation of any possible situation with the major swing involved. And for this particularly we have the next leg higher in dollar cooking with some devaluation from SNB to put the icing on the cake: An interesting move, EURCHF ⬆️ and USDCHF ⬆️ up a lot more... The flow is worth considering, it is not a pitless market, very often we can close our eye to some dollar devaluation but we sellers are out of energy and we need to smooth things over. Thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
5
ridethepig | USDCHF Market Commentary 2020.11.26📌 ridethepig | USDCHF Market Commentary 2020.11.26 This is one of the classic simultaneous 'worm in the apple' plays. It is an instructive illustration of the link between bids and offers in the short-term and diversionary support on the lows. The dependence of buyers position appears clearly on USD strength. The correct play here is to bid the 0.907x lows. A fresh train of thought should unlock a test of 0.912x and 0.914x. And sellers will then have to overcome their problems once more. According to the 'dollar', we are all the way at the bottom of the range for Thanksgiving and this low must be blockaded: It is with reluctance and after great thought that I decided on this diversion out on the lows. It seems somewhat daring, because conditions do not seem to be quite safe in the US. One of my main principles states that a fading attack is only correct when we see that others are willing to play too, as with Europe this morning on the open.... For the flows, entry 0.907x with targets clearly defined above at 0.912x and 0.914x while invalidation below 0.905x. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
6
Bitcoin Same Spot (Price) Different Time / Halftime Show...Whatcha waiting for BTC? Which way do you want to break? P action consistently having a drip sideways with a dribble and a drop in volume, yet staying steady at the 9200 mark. ‘Just sitting here enjoying the yearly halftime show’ - Bitcoin Overall BTC is watching the resistance overhead stay stationary around 10k with trendiness moving south which could be ‘a’ reason for the price restriction. (See resistance write up for more info) The more price moves sideways indicators will catch up and flatten out (but lets remember that indicators are lagging as formulated by price action already printed). However they comprise of traders theory to making money in these markets. Anyways; Enjoy your breather Bitcoin and come out and rock a Q3/Q4 to get MVP and be remembered as GOAT... Happy Trading, mask up and be safe and drink ya Gatorade. #Game6 ... Pending Bitcoin to Date Daily Current Price: $9195.1 USD Daily Change %: -0.74% Market Cap: $169,680,822,960.00 USD 24 Hour Volume: $15,791,471,013 USD Population of the World: ~7,798,309,350+ humans Today’s Bitcoin Total / World Population: ~ 0.002363839285242 Satoshi’s / $21.73 USD per person Overall Approximate Bitcoin in Circulation: 18,433,950 BTC Approximate Bitcoin Mined Last 24hr: ~ 900 BTC Approximate Bitcoin Left to Mine: 2,566,050 BTC Road to 21,000,000 Bitcoin Mined: 87.78% Current Bitcoin Dominance: 63.63% 📈Support & Resistance📉* Support Levels 1st Support Zone: 8963.6 2nd Support Zone: 8666.7 3rd Support Zone: 7840.4 Resistance Levels: 1st Resistance Zone: 9889.2 2nd Resistance Zone: 10285.8 3rd Resistance Zone: 10781.2 Price Level Consideration Approximate Days Until Halving: 1392 Days (Pending Timezone / Blocks Mined) All Time High Half Way Point: 9942.5 Prominent High: 13767.4 Prominent Low: 3994.1 🐃 Bulls Verse Bears 🐻 🐃 Bullish Above: 10485.8 🐻 Bearish Below: 6474.1 Monthly & Weekly Opens Monthly Open: 9171.5 Weekly Open: 9320.6 Current Price Zone: ACCUMULATION ZONE Biggest Bitcoin Transaction of the Day** 1. 🚨1,220 BTC ($11,270,347 USD) transferred from Coinbase ➡️ Unknown wallet 🚨 Gold***: $1,811.59 USD +0.79 +0.04% Silver***: $27.74 USD +0.08 +0.28% —————————————————————————————————— *📈Support & Resistance📉: These are typically zones & not exact price levels depicted by the lines. Keep in mind that price may respect and repeatedly touch several times on smaller time frames. **What you won’t see on exchanges: This is purely to reference that traders watching the charts are neglecting the ‘Transaction Sentiment’ of large (🐳 WHALE) transactions from wallet to wallet and OTC execution send transactions (new/old wallets). TIP: The amount/s transferred daily tells a story of flow to potential market dynamics that may transpire. *** Personally I HODL Gold/Crypto over having a majority of Fiat currency 💸. Previously before trading crypto in 2015, Gold was one of my main charts thus I look at the price regularly comparative to Bitcoin. Created & published by Des Landen Landen International Trading Playlist: Duke Dumont
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by LandenInternational
ridethepig | EURCHF Long-Term Marco Map📍 EURCHF On the CHF side, we had started to see a lot of plumbing from SNB at the lows 1.06xx-1.05xx and for those following the flows it was the 🔑 level we were to tracking in Q1. It is no surprise that we are reaching the end of ' Phase 1 ' and constituting a very powerful base that we can now use as an attacking weapon. The purpose of the sweep was to shake the tree and put out of action early buyers and late sellers. The concept of Eurobonds is more than enough to capture the highlights of this establishment, a consolidation that will undoubtedly be endurable. Well done all those riding this pig, a move that will be difficult to defend against. A nice late breakfast while EURCHF trades levels not seen since 2019. Although CHF is going to benefit from risk off flows versus USD, I am bullish on the euro and could not step against this train. A break of 1.10 will send the message.
Long
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | CHF Macro PlaybookThe pair is performing with little trouble for sellers, it has been absolutely hammered as Global Equities and Yields come under further pressure via Coronavirus impact. After a conversation with @FT_Lexicon we can discuss the importance of flanking and comparing with EURCHF is vital here, we can realise why there is not the same room for SNB intervention as there was in 2011. Let us now take a look at this two-stage manoeuvre in a swing without opposing forces: The 1.06 barrier is giving up, this will allow the move to follow through with CHF inflows. Here the CHF side must be occupied via risk-off positioning. The franc must be bought as long as we remain in this environment, a frontal attack on demand and supply and now markets are catching up. For all those tracking the previous USDCHF chart via generational US capital outflows we it is a good time to review the diagram: In the position; Sellers have already done the technical damage because the next soft support is not found till 0.900x which will hold temporarily before we move towards 0.85xx. The theory of our opposition is really lacking, FED cuts and US virus case numbers still ticking higher will all weigh heavily on USD going forward. The truth is simple; volatility was miles ahead and played its role as leader, here is the chart @ridethepig called back last year in VIX (Volatility): The application of the VIX in this context is helping us keep in sync with risk sentiment, as long as this remains elevated, all USDCHF rallies should continue to be sold. This shows the typical and ideal situation for us using CHF as a safe-haven. Their relationship is like those of real comrades, brothers standing side-by-side and must be taken into consideration at all times! The strength of their relationship will progress and demand a testing of the 0.85xx handle, their lust of range expansion will continue to drive the flows. On the technicals, 0.9525 is the closest s/t resistance and should be sold if it arises. Otherwise, well done all those holding shorts from the highs last year. As usual thanks for keeping the likes, comments and charts rolling in the comments below !!
Short
by ridethepig
2
Chop! Chop!A well needed update to the EURCHF chart after previously tracking and failing to clear the ABC extension targets at 1.065x. For those following the previous charts before we broke down: The yearly flows and expectations for 2020 will large be divided in a tale of two halves and as a result forecasts in the cross reflect that: For the initial phase, we are tracking a test of the important 1.12x and 1.13x highs which will come via a zig-zag of 'orderly' Brexit triggering those who hedged in CHF to unwind and therefore CHF outflows, twinned with EUR funded inflows. This is the A' part in the sequence. After clearing 1.12x and 1.13x and with a lot of work still to be done on the ladder, we transition into the second phase where I will look for a meaningful retrace to around the current lows at 1.092x which will provide the B'. These two phases will cover the majority of 2020 flows before completing a fresh breakup above 1.13xx in 2021 with a completed ABC sequence. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes and jumping into the comments with your views and charts!
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | CHF Market Commentary 2019.11.28USDCHF still caught in the tight range, patience and flexibility important here, range bound 1.002x - 0.984x with both parameters significant now, it looks like being a roller-coaster into year-end. EURCHF very strong support 1.093x - more inclined to buy dips and play from the long side. I still favour upside EURCHF but as people still cutting longs we are unlikely to progress significantly higher in short term. We are right back to our previous entry point and tracking exactly the same flows ... and by now I know all following here will know what to do at key resistance: Remember, we can comfortably lean on the long-term chart: and for those with a background in waves - we got stuck in severe chop within the same sequence: With two sides to the theme we are trading the large macro flows from widespread USD devaluation as a main course dinner, while CHF outflows are likely via "orderly Brexit resolution" which will go on to act as desert. Remember CHF is the lowest yielder in G10 FX, it's been mainly used as a funding currency for carry trades, if risk ticks high in 2020 we are going to have a textbook zig-zag in play. So the initial 'zig' (as seen above) coming from front-loaded USD devaluation into year-end/Jan, followed by decent CHF profit taking in February as those who used CHF to hedge Brexit begin to unwind. The major waterfall looks only to continue with momentum via US election risk and Brexit after the fact impacts (the kind you cannot heal from a political poll in the Times). In any case, thanks all for keeping the likes and support rolling. As usual jump in the comments with your ideas and charts !!
Short
by ridethepig
5
LONG EURCHF - SNB BID INTERVENTION @ THE 1.08 HANDLELong EURCHF - 9/10 Conviction: 1. Having watched the 1.08 level closely post-brexit it certainly looks as if there is some FX intervention going on at the 1.08 handle - suspicions enforced even more as SNB President Jordan has said in the past that FX intervention is on the cards should CHF move even higher when we were around this level previously. 2. Ive been looking for a way to effectively play long euro positioning based on the view that the ECB has come to an end of its record easing cycle, EURAUD bids felt pain in the front end of the week before popping following ECB thus I think EURCHF is a better suited proxy given the ultra low vol. 3. Volatility is also v low so risk of downside is limited, plus SNB are clear they will can intervene so the chance of long-term losses with this trade are close to 0, especially when you look at the price action 4. Over in rates the 3m euroswiss futures differential (dec-march) are implying a 2bps cut with dec -0.76 vs mar -0.78, whilst the 3m euribor implies 0.5bps of hikes with dec -0.31 vs mar -0.315.. both in recent months have experienced significant selling as rate cut hopes have plunged as inflation begins to show some footing especially in Energy. Trading Strategy - buy EURCHF <1.081 dips 1.09/1.096TP: 1. Buy EURCHF on any dips into the 1.081 level, 100pips TP but it is also advisable to take 50 or by looking at the intra day (1hr) moves even taking 10-20pips is possible several times a day as the market constantly moves higher after ANY dipping below the 1.08 handle. - i wont be running a stop on this trade given what my opinion of the SNB's commitment is and the very low IV and HV
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
22
LONG EURCHF - SNB BID INTERVENTION @ THE 1.08 HANDLELong EURCHF - 9/10 Conviction: 1. Having watched the 1.08 level closely post-brexit it certainly looks as if there is some FX intervention going on at the 1.08 handle - suspicions enforced even more as SNB President Jordan has said in the past that FX intervention is on the cards should CHF move even higher when we were around this level previously. 2. Ive been looking for a way to effectively play long euro positioning based on the view that the ECB has come to an end of its record easing cycle, EURAUD bids felt pain in the front end of the week before popping following ECB thus I think EURCHF is a better suited proxy given the ultra low vol. 3. Volatility is also v low so risk of downside is limited, plus SNB are clear they will can intervene so the chance of long-term losses with this trade are close to 0, especially when you look at the price action 4. Over in rates the 3m euroswiss futures differential (dec-march) are implying a 2bps cut with dec -0.76 vs mar -0.78, whilst the 3m euribor implies 0.5bps of hikes with dec -0.31 vs mar -0.315.. both in recent months have experienced significant selling as rate cut hopes have plunged as inflation begins to show some footing especially in Energy. Trading Strategy - buy EURCHF <1.081 dips 1.09/1.096TP: 1. Buy EURCHF on any dips into the 1.081 level, 100pips TP but it is also advisable to take 50 or by looking at the intra day (1hr) moves even taking 10-20pips is possible several times a day as the market constantly moves higher after ANY dipping below the 1.08 handle. - i wont be running a stop on this trade given what my opinion of the SNB's commitment is and the very low IV and HV
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
1
EURCHF: SNB JORDAN - EYE & BUY 1.05/8, 80% SEPT CUT, STRONG CHFSNB President T. Jordan comment highlights: - If Needed, Can Cut Rates Further - 50bps to 1.25% possible until negative rates turn less effective - €˜Big Concern€™ Over Significantly Overvalued CHF in 2016 risk-off dominated year - CHF 3m Libor prices 80% chance of a 25bps cut (-0.75 to -1.00%) within 3 months (was only 40% before brexit) - Low bond yields not ideal for foreign-reserve management - Swiss central bank president currently doesn’t see need to act/ adjust policy, despite risks - Survey shows CHF needs to rise to 1.05 before rate cut President T. Jordan G20 Quotes: 1. “We are monitoring the situation very carefully: what are the consequences for inflation and growth in Switzerland, what are our policy options,” 2. Regards to ECB/ BOE future policy - “The franc remains significantly overvalued, it’s a big concern for us.” 3. “The low level of interest rates is of course not ideal for foreign-currency reserve management, but monetary policy is expansionary everywhere,” Jordan said. “That’s an environment we can’t change and we have to adjust our investment policy accordingly.” 4. “There clearly are risks,” but “whether they materialize or not is not in the hand of Switzerland,” he said. “It depends on the decisions Europe will take and how strongly they will affect the global economy and financial markets” and “we hope, of course, that sensible decisions will be taken.” Trading strategy: 1. Looking at the 1.08 level it looks like there is some clear SNB defence of this level, which is consistent with the SNB's comments that they have intervened at this level in the past (e.g. brexit). - So an easy strategy is to buy any <1.08 dips, with a 1.088-1.09tp as it looks as if there is some consistent buying from the 1.08 level to the 1.09 level so take advantage of this trend , lower the better, as it certainly looks as if the SNB is engaging in intervention at this level and will continue to do so - even if not officially as in the past with the 1.20 level. 2. Bloomberg Poll see's a definite SNB 25bps cut if the EURCHF drifts to the 1.05 level - so beyond buying 1.08 dips with perhaps 1lot, i advise strongly buying 1.05 and less dips with say 2-4lots based on heavy FX intervention directly or rate based if we were to such low levels. TP can be placed at the 1.08-9 level still - In terms of cutting capacity, also polled by BBG showed that the SNB has room for another 50bps of cuts before its negative policy may turn counterproductive - so this strategy is sound for now.
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
Trade of the day. Buy USDCHF. Oversold.This could be a very profitable trade. The way I see it is that the price is oversold, dropping to fundamental support. Now, this is important, if the SNB anticipates larger QE by the ECB, they will drop the interest rate further into negative territory. This could be a huge event as the SNB believes the currency is already severely overvalued. The SNB will hit the market like they did a year ago with this announcement. I recommend buy stops with stop losses below long term support.
Long
by maccabean