XAUUSD 24-Hour Technical Analysis Forecast - UTC+4 Current Price: $3,350.095 (Close: Friday, July 18th, 2025) UTC+4
Analysis Period : Next 24 Hours (July 21-22, 2025) UTC+4
Market Status: Weekend - Preparing for Monday Open 02:00AM 21st July 2025
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - 24H OUTLOOK
Primary Bias: Neutral to Bearish (Short-term)
Key Resistance: $3,375 - $3,390
Critical Support: $3,285 - $3,300
Expected Range: $3,300 - $3,380
Volatility Level: Moderate to High
CANDLESTICK PATTERN ANALYSIS
Friday's Close Formation
Pattern: Doji-like formation at resistance zone
Significance: Indecision after testing $3,350+ levels
Volume: Moderate - no strong conviction breakout
Context: Failed to close decisively above $3,375 resistance
Expected 24H Patterns
Monday Gap: Potential gap down to $3,320-3,330 area
Reversal Patterns: Watch for hammer/doji at support levels
Continuation Signals: Break below $3,300 could trigger bearish continuation
HARMONIC PATTERN ANALYSIS
Current Harmonic Setup
Primary Pattern: Potential Bearish Bat completing
X: $3,285 (previous low)
A: $3,390 (recent high)
B: $3,320 (61.8% retracement)
C: $3,375 (78.6% projection - current area)
D (Target): $3,300-3,285 (88.6% completion zone)
Fibonacci Levels (24H Focus)
Golden Ratio Resistance: $3,375 (current test area)
61.8% Support: $3,320
78.6% Support: $3,300
88.6% Critical Support: $3,285
Pattern Completion Probabilities
Bearish Bat Completion: 70% probability targeting $3,285-3,300
Bullish Cypher Setup: 30% if break above $3,390
ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY - 24H COUNT
Primary Wave Count
Macro Structure: Wave 5 of larger impulse possibly topping
Current Sub-wave: Wave (c) of corrective structure
Mini Count: 5-wave decline from $3,390 high in progress
24-Hour Wave Projection
Wave 1: $3,390 → $3,320 (Completed)
Wave 2: $3,320 → $3,360 (Completed - 50% retrace)
Wave 3: $3,360 → $3,285 (In Progress - Target Area)
Wave 4: $3,285 → $3,310 (Projected)
Wave 5: $3,310 → $3,260 (Extended target)
Critical Levels
Wave 3 = 1.618 × Wave 1: $3,285 (Primary target)
Invalidation: Above $3,390 (Wave 2 high)
WYCKOFF THEORY - 24H PHASE
Current Market Phase
Phase Assessment: Distribution Phase C (Testing Supply)
Composite Operator Action: Testing demand at $3,350 area
Volume Analysis: Declining volume on recent rallies (bearish)
Expected 24H Wyckoff Action
Phase Transition: Moving toward Phase D (Markdown begins)
Supply Test: Failed test at $3,375 confirms distribution
Target: Initial markdown to $3,285-3,300 area
Key Wyckoff Signals (24H)
No Demand: Expected at current levels
Selling Climax: Possible if break below $3,285 with high volume
Automatic Rally: Dead cat bounce to $3,320-3,330
W.D. GANN THEORY - 24H ANALYSIS
Square of Nine Analysis
Current Position: 3350° on Gann wheel
Next Cardinal Point: 3375° (90° angle - strong resistance)
Support Angles: 3300° (natural support), 3285° (critical angle)
Geometric Progression: $3,285 = perfect square root relationship
Time Theory - 24H Cycle
Natural Time Window: 24-hour cycle from Friday's high
Critical Time: 14:00-16:00 UTC Monday (historical turning point)
Lunar Influence: New moon phase approaching (bearish for commodities)
Angle Theory
45° Line: Currently at $3,320 (rising support)
63.75° Line: $3,285 (steep support angle)
26.25° Line: $3,375 (resistance angle)
Price Forecasting (Gann Methods)
Primary Target: $3,285 (Square root of 81²)
Secondary Target: $3,240 (Square root of 80²)
Resistance: $3,375 (Square root of 82.5²)
Time Forecasting
Turn Time 1: 06:00 UTC Monday (18 hours from Friday close)
Turn Time 2: 14:00 UTC Monday (26 hours from Friday close)
Major Turn: 22:00 UTC Monday (34 hours - Fibonacci time)
MULTI-TIMEFRAME INTRADAY ANALYSIS
5-Minute Chart Analysis
Trend: Bearish momentum building
Pattern: Lower highs, lower lows since Friday high
Key Levels:
Resistance: $3,360-3,365
Support: $3,330-3,335
RSI: Approaching oversold (35-40 range)
Volume: Increasing on down moves
15-Minute Chart Analysis
Structure: Bearish flag formation
Breakdown Level: Below $3,340
Target: $3,300-3,310 (flag pole projection)
Moving Averages: Price below EMA 20 ($3,358)
MACD: Bearish crossover confirmed
30-Minute Chart Analysis
Primary Trend: Corrective phase active
Chart Pattern: Descending triangle
Apex: Around $3,335-3,340
Breakout Direction: 65% probability downward
Volume Profile: Heavy selling at $3,350-3,375
1-Hour Chart Analysis
Major Structure: ABC correction in progress
Current Position: C-wave development
Fibonacci Target: $3,285 (127.2% extension)
Bollinger Bands: Price touching lower band
Stochastic: Oversold but no divergence yet
4-Hour Chart Analysis
Macro Trend: Still bullish above $3,200
Correction Depth: 23.6% retracement maximum expected
Support Zone: $3,280-3,300 (confluences)
Resistance Zone: $3,375-3,390 (proven strong)
Ichimoku: Price approaching cloud support
TECHNICAL INDICATORS MATRIX
Momentum Indicators
RSI (4H): 42 (Neutral-Bearish)
RSI (1H): 35 (Oversold approaching)
Stochastic: %K: 28, %D: 35 (Oversold)
Williams %R: -75 (Strong oversold)
Trend Indicators
MACD (4H): Bearish crossover pending
ADX: 28 (Moderate trend strength)
Parabolic SAR: $3,365 (Sell signal if broken)
Volume Indicators
OBV: Declining (distribution pattern)
Volume Rate of Change: Negative
Accumulation/Distribution: Slight distribution
KEY SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVELS (24H)
Immediate Resistance Levels
R1: $3,365 (Previous support turned resistance)
R2: $3,375 (Major psychological & Gann resistance)
R3: $3,390 (Recent swing high)
R4: $3,410 (Extended resistance)
Critical Support Levels
S1: $3,330 (Immediate support)
S2: $3,300 (Psychological & Fibonacci)
S3: $3,285 (Major harmonic & Gann target)
S4: $3,260 (Extended support)
24-HOUR TRADING SCENARIOS
Scenario 1: Bearish Breakdown (60% Probability)
Trigger: Break below $3,330 with volume
Target 1: $3,300-3,310
Target 2: $3,285-3,290
Extended Target: $3,260-3,270
Stop Loss (Shorts): Above $3,370
Scenario 2: Range-Bound Consolidation (25% Probability)
Range: $3,320-3,375
Strategy: Fade extremes
Buy Zone: $3,320-3,330
Sell Zone: $3,365-3,375
Breakout Confirmation: Volume spike
Scenario 3: Bullish Reversal (15% Probability)
Trigger: Break above $3,375 with volume
Target 1: $3,390-3,400
Target 2: $3,410-3,420
Invalidation: Below $3,285
RISK FACTORS & CATALYSTS (24H)
Bearish Catalysts
US Dollar strength continuation
Risk-off sentiment from geopolitical tensions
Profit-taking ahead of weekend
Technical breakdown confirmation
Bullish Catalysts
Safe-haven demand surge
US Dollar weakness
Central bank buying speculation
Technical oversold bounce
High-Impact Events (Next 24H)
Asian market opening sentiment
US Dollar Index movement
Cryptocurrency correlation effects
Weekend gap analysis
TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS (24H)
For Scalpers (5M-15M)
Strategy: Fade bounces to resistance
Entry: $3,355-3,365 area
Target: $3,335-3,340
Stop: $3,375
Risk/Reward: 1:2
For Swing Traders (1H-4H)
Primary Setup: Short on retracement
Entry Zone: $3,350-3,360
Target 1: $3,300
Target 2: $3,285
Stop Loss: $3,385
Conservative Approach
Wait for: Clear breakdown below $3,330
Entry: $3,325 (confirmation)
Target: $3,285-3,290
Stop: $3,345
CONFLUENCE FACTORS
Bearish Confluence at $3,285
Harmonic Bat pattern completion (88.6% level)
Gann Square of Nine critical angle
Elliott Wave 3 = 1.618 × Wave 1 target
Fibonacci 78.6% retracement level
Previous significant support area
Wyckoff markdown initial target
Resistance Confluence at $3,375
Gann 90-degree angle resistance
Harmonic pattern resistance
Elliott Wave corrective high
Previous breakout level
Psychological round number
FINAL 24H FORECAST SUMMARY
Expected Price Action: Controlled decline toward $3,285-3,300 support zone with potential for brief consolidation before further weakness.
Primary Targets (Downside):
First: $3,300-3,310
Second: $3,285-3,290
Extended: $3,260-3,270
Key Invalidation: Sustained break above $3,375 would shift bias bullish toward $3,390-3,410.
Risk Management: Position sizing should be conservative due to high volatility expectations and weekend gap risks.
Probability Assessment:
60% - Bearish scenario
25% - Sideways consolidation
15% - Bullish reversal
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Gold trading involves substantial risk. Always use proper risk management and never risk more than you can afford to lose.
Volume profile resistance
