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JP10Y

GLD: Bearish Alternate Bat HOP Level Reached: Reversal LikelyThe yields within the bond market are hinting towards a reversal in Gold and potentially other metals today, however, Gold right now is sitting at the HOP level of a Bearish Alt-Bat. If GLD were to reverse here, we would see it as a type 2 return which could result in Bearish price-Action beyond just the intra week but extended to the entire macro trend as a whole. I will be playing this via multiple OTM /GC Bear Put Vertical Spreads on the monthlies and may potentially start playing cheaper bearish plays on a week by week basis.
AMEX:GLDShort
by RizeSenpai
Japanese Yen & USD Death Spiral In Action - YCC Yin Yang Things are getting interesting in bond land, Japanese central bank balance sheet increasing after 09 to keep US bond yields down is finally starting to show signs of fail. This system is starting to break due to investors losing faith in the system. As faith is lost US bonds are sold, as US bonds are sold Yields go parabolic, Japan has been a US proxy since 09 to keep US yields in place Stage 1 This works very well from Japan points of view due to how bad 1989 was and how the mentality of debt, leverage got destroyed essentially making the speculation market dead. It allows the Central Bank Of Japan to create money and allow cheap credit near 0% interest rates without the problem of inflation. Now since 2020 this model has broken and Japan is getting inflation this is almost red alert due to the leverage of money supply in bonds. Stage 2 US M2 / JP M2 debasement work together making the illusion the DXY is strong when in reality the US is forcing the EU / JP to debase pushing up the DXY. Japanese Bond Yields have started to break causing actual investors to dump Japan bonds and US Bonds forcing the Japan Central Bank to do hard YCC on both JP and US Bonds. BUT the increase in us interest rates has sparked even more selling of US Bonds and even more Japan YCC, the treasury debt interest is also almost at 1 Trillion. Conclusion Japanese Bonds & The US Bonds are finally in a Yin Yang death spiral feeding off each other and its starting to get out of control, Bank of Japan are even starting to panic. Japan literally cannot raise interest rates as they would blow up the entire system due to debt interest being the largest holder of US debt. The FRED will be forced to implement some type of Yield Curve Control on Japanese Debt while giving Japan time to Yield Curve Control the US Debt, meanwhile? Bitcoin is actually moving in correlation with the Japanese Central Bank Balance sheet. QE To Infinity is closer than people think for those who don't know the US bond market is valued at $51tn. Japan valued at $12.3tn This market will have to be forced into QE / YCC as the bonds are the collateral for the world banks if they fail the world fails.
TVC:US10Y
by FederalXBT
$JPY: BOJ - Let's challenge you!BOJ - Let's challenge you! Intervening in there currency was a perfect technical set-up as well but as I started in my previous posts, we are going to re-rest the highs as we are, and we could perhaps go further if we break above that spike high of 146 area. However, we could get a fake break to either direction that's where you should be careful. Technically we have a great technical set-up once again! Formation: Triangle Bears: A break below 143 half handle we could head down to 142 half areas. Bull: A break above 146 areas we could ahead above to 146 three-quarter areas. Fundamentally: BOJ just like BOE followed and ECB are doing in having to intervene due to higher DXY - print money despite high inflation, in order to support their sovereign bond markets. BOJ intervening is being tested highly! Key tip: Be careful of fake break outs and follow your own trade plan Have a great week ahead, Trade Journal
by Trade_Journal
3
Rising US Yields drive USDJPY Rising US yields are attracting those investors who borrow Japanese Yen at the much lower rate and and then purchase American dollars to earn a higher return than in Japan - knowns as the carry trade. The correlation shows times when USDJPY carry trade is a key driver of the currency pair, however it is not always, because these are both go to currencies in times of fear, that's when the correlation between the yield differential breaks down. (E.g. in 2018 during the CHina US Trade War) However, since early Feb when the yields started to rise rapidly, investors have jumped in, selling Yen and buying USD. So long as rates continue to rise (and Powell gave no indication of YCC last night during his speech), this trend will continue. It's worth commenting that Japanese 10 Year Rates are also rising, however in absolute basis points, the rise in the US yield has been much higher. This carry trade will increase demand for USD and lend strength to the bulls case for a stronger USD in 2021.
TVC:US10Y
by majicktrader
1
AUDJPY Up and AwayAs the gap rapidly grows between the Australian 10 Year Rates and Japanese 10 Year Rate, the AUDJP carry trade becomes even more desirable. This week as the pair soared above 83.50 - levels that it has not seen since late in 2018 and the currency pair is currently trading around 83.6. There are several fundamental factors driving this trend. Australia's economy is rebounding and this is sending Australian 10 year rates higher. This is despite the RBA increasing its QE program at is last meeting in February. The commodity boom in copper and Iron Ore is creating demand for the Australian dollar and sending it even higher Meanwhile Japan is struggling with the virus. While it's 10 year rates are rebounding in percentage terms, the absolute gains are well below the basis point gains being by Australian 10 year rates. Meanwhile bets are growing that The Bank of Japan will signal negative interest rates at its meeting in March - so this is keeping the lid on the Japanese rates for now. With the fundamentals favouring continued growth, and without a major risk reset, it is likely that the growing gap between the two countries 10 year rates will continue to expand. This means $84 and $85 will be within the currency pair's sights.
TVC:AU10Y
by majicktrader
ridethepig | Chinese Yields Struggling📌 A Pullback for Chinese Yields This illustrates the notion of development in a change in trend for China's sovereign bond market . Sellers avoided a breakout and are aiming to test 3.00%. On the fundamental side , China is outperforming as expectations are skewed towards favouring their management of the virus and recognisable weakness of the West! Strong LT push factors remain in play, putting the renminbi into SDR was a g ame-changer , as with the Saudi's allowing issuing Oil in CNY contracts; 2020 was the year of the Yuan while 2021 looks more like a game of two halves. H1 2021 we have another deflation storm cooking while H2 2021 rate markets are showing early hints of inflation and rate hikes. On the technical side, sellers now have the attacking position in the highs. This is a definite advantage . Here the weakness comes from a breach of our diagonal resistance (light blue). With this move, sellers see themselves as obliged to continue by playing an initial test of 3.00% which will unlock a sweep of July 2020 lows at 2.83%. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:CN10YShort
by ridethepig
2
EUR/JPY DE10Y vs. JP10YIncreased spread between Germany 10-year bond yield vs Japan 10-year yield could indicate a slide in the Euro against the Yen. Even though the yield is higher for European bund, the risk appetite is declining, while the global economy is projected to have a slow growth rate through out 2019. This means that investors seek safe heaven assets like the Yen and JP10 bonds, that’s why we could see lower yield on the JP10Y. While the bond buying program from ECB is slowly decreasing - will increase the DE10Y yield. Maybe we could see a negative JP10Y yield this year, as it happened in 2016 and was the reason behind the slump of the pair from 128 to 111. I see a weak risk appetite, more demand on JP10 or even lower Japanese bonds, and a higher supply of European bonds. If the risk appetite is weak, we will also see a lower S&P and positive correlated indices with the S&P lower. European stocks is a risk in 2019 = less demand for the euro. If the risk sentiment is changing, then we could see a higher EUR/JPY. I am closely monitoring this factor. A range throughout 2019 of the pair is also possible. Holding shorts, and will add more if we break 123,400 and 121,500.
Short
by Fx-AlphaStrats