How are you going to celebrate DXYday?Making money shorting precious metals / crypto, or making money long USD pairs?
Bull Flag
First target 106
Jpowell
Jerome Powell And 15m 12 EMA Bear Control SPY & QQQ After breaking 12 EMA 15min time frame yesterday bears have been suing it for full control underneath it.
- at this price point SPY retraced over 60% QQQ retraced 50%. Burden is on the bulls to step up here. Bear still comfortable
- if QQQ start dropping more than 50% retracement everything will start favoring the bears
- Jerome Powell spoke today and now market is pricing in 71% chance of a 0.5% bps hike. he is speaking again tomorrow mornings 7am
- Very key area for battle between bulls and bears now.
Dollar about to do something it's only done 2 times since 2009Traders,
A moment of truth has arrived. The dollar is about to do something it has only done 2 times since 2009. This is critical! Let's take a look at our charts together.
Stew
A look at the market's reaction to JPOW and fomc co. Traders,
Let's talk about today's FOMC press release, the market's current reaction, and where we can expect this will lead us into next week as well as what today's FED vs. BIDEN admin tug-o-war means for future macroeconomic conditions.
SPDR S&P 500 ETFwe are channel trading/consolidation. and this will probably continue till the meetings coming up.
my main thesis is based off a few things. the up coming Jackson Hole meeting followed by Fed Jpow Friday. i believe we get under that 410 area. by Sept October. there is alot of factors influencing this, inflation, rate hikes, etc. 390 would be the area im looking for. i dont see us making a new 52wk low.
Hedge funds. from that 4300 are net short on the spx and cash heavy. more then normal. and this is why i also think we have a santa claus rally. we get the pull back in sept. sept and oct are the worst performing months. this pull back will bring you into a wonderful area of support at 390 and inflation keeps coming in at good clips. hedge funds are gonna say crap. inflations coming down. fed slows rate hikes. they will have to cover those short positions. and they can not go into the end of the year that cash heavy and that can bring you back to that resistance level . when hedge funds are usually this one sided. it usually doesnt work. look at august 2020 when they were in this same position. they were wrong and got completely rolled over. anyway. this gives traders tremendous opportunity.
On the longer term we have an inverse head and shoulders forming. the july 17 low being the head. even on the shorter time frime we have one and we are on the right shoulder right above the neck line around that 412/414 area. now i only point this out because its alittle interesting. some technical analysis .
fun fact- since 1950 the spy has never rallied pass the 50% fib retrace off a recession low and made a NEW low. just fun fact.
but the targted (oval- general area/zone) would be a long term buying opportunity if you missed the july 17th low.
or if you arnt fully invested it could be a buyable pullback imo. just my thoughts hope you like or got something out of it.
SPX will go down this week thanks to JP PowellOver a billion shares are short as inflation pressures are true. I personally think it will go up in the long term remember this is not financial advice.
Spy leading to 4/14 Fed Minutes (balance sheet run off) ooOpossible spy play out leading to the fed minutes esp if talks of balances sheet run offs. i dont need to list all the other crazy factors which are on the chart. mrkets can and will do anything its just something i kinda eyed out.
DXY - How Does This Rally Compare to Historical Ones?I did some quick back of napkin math. I logged the average duration of DXY overbought conditions before it properly rejected below the 70 RSI . This is all approximated based on the 4d DXY chart.
If you discount the two outliers (the 16d and 231d events) your average duration is 49 days overbought before seeing a proper rejection. If we included those outliers (like 2014-2015's over 200 days) then the average is 63 days. Currently we are on day 24 but with bearish divergences on lower timeframes.
If you include the late 2021 rally for DXY we are over 60 days already on this pattern, but there was a brief and sudden momentum breakdown for DXY from December to January that exited the peak overbought range, so I'll count it as two separate events.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out in coming days and weeks. While a narrative for a strong dollar had headwinds from mid last year, its also somewhat a house of cards and this is reflected in the bearish momentum divergences popping up. If the inflation narrative peaks or competing fiat currencies reverse course we may see a sudden reversal of fortunes for the dollar bulls. There is also the narrative from competing nation states looking to alternatives to the USD for transacting internationally that after the Russia sanctions that might gain strength.
Bitcoin - Backdrop of Macroeconomics and GeopoliticsSomething in the back of my mind through the past few months was how other markets performed compared to Bitcoin and Crypto.
It appears to me (admittedly not an economist) that crypto was quick to begin correcting after the November statements by the FOMC that tapering would begin in Q1 2022. Not all markets priced the news in at the same pace and despite the higher volatility of crypto, I think this was more a sign of maturity than emotional volatility.
In Papi's opinion crypto is maturing rapidly this cycle, as if COVID 19 was a catalyst for crypto to begin its final journey towards legitimization. And past two quarters are arguably some of the most significant in it's history, as it drives further into unprecedented territory in terms of it's pattern, price action, and growing trust and acknowledgement.
On the chart is a recap of the past two quarters and some of the significant events, and Bitcoin/crypto market reactions:
Crypto markets are SIGNIFICANTLY more mature now than in earlier cycles. This is very evidenced by the fact that crypto influencers, crypto Twitter, and other social media like Discord or Reddit are very tuned into important events like the FOMC or Fed Chair's nomination. Traders are entering or exiting positions based on real economic matters, not just the small bubble or echo chamber that some think crypto traders live in.
Crypto markets began to price in the tapering earlier than some other markets, and looking at other factors like no significant selloff, inflows or increased supply of Bitcoin, the rising floor on the macro pattern, we find that crypto might be better positioned for a short term rally in H1 2022 than other markets.
2022 started with a series of extremely significant events that appeared to validate the utility of Bitcoin. With the conflict in Russia we saw that citizens could move their ruble to Bitcoin as a way to protect the value of their money, we saw Ukraine raise funds for it's military/defense using crypto, we saw an executive order from the most significant economic power in the world basically legitimizing crypto and asking government departments to further research how to integrate it, and we saw one of the richest oil nations and business centers (UAE/Dubai) signal a massive support for Bitcoin.
Compared to every cycle before it, the 2020-2022 cycle is unique and this is best visualized by the macro rising support, versus a steep drop from the peak of the market. This may also represent lengthened cycles or something else, but its clearly indicative of a rising support and trust in the space.
Now some analysts argue that news is irrelevant, you can see all and predict all in the charts. But as the Russia conflict shows us, or COVID 19 showed us, you might get a partial answer from the chart- but (in my opinion) you can't account for 100% of the story without following news, and you certainly can't perform higher timeframe analysis without also understanding geopolitical and macroeconomic factors at play and incorporate that into your forecast.
Quick Sell on USDCAD Placed the trade during M Jerome Powell Speech. From One key zone to the other. probably will be hit by the end of this week / early next week.
The JPOW Effect: The Last 4 Fed/FOMC Meetings VisualizedInteresting and consistent correlation in the way the market reacts to each FOMC meeting.
$TNX Direction & Dot-Plot summaryTechnical Analysis
Technically speaking, 1.6% had been a very important level, as we tested 6 times, before continuing higher.
Now the 10sma which has been working very well year-to-date, is lining up with the 1.6% level.
I expect some selling to reach the 10sma at 1.6%, for a bounce to 2%.
Dot Plot Summary
7/18 FOMC officials are predicting higher short-term interest rates by the end of 2023, as compared to 5/17 at the December meeting (i.e., a growing percentage who see an earlier start for rate hikes). Notably, four officials now expect a rate hike at some point next year.
SPX - Resistance in 3DThe .764 is the Reverse .236. Now for the main event. Chairman Powell and the Committees' take on the yield curve and rates future.
nzd/ usd shortnzd is on a weekly resistance and looksto be coming down. there's a daily harmonic W pattern signaling that it wants to test the weekly low.
there is usd cpi today, 2/10, and fed j powell is speaking. i think those 2 high risk events may help this move.
entry: .72336
stop: .7268
target: .90965
Ratio 4:1
Volatility Till the End!They said you can't chart VIX.. Charting VIX isn't useful.. Well I charted VIX.. Along with SPY and M1, and well decide for yourself, but I think we can tell where the volatility is coming from. Maybe the long vol trade will become popular!
$GS - Ascending Triangle into JanuaryAscending Triangle on the 2hr into the end of the year following a strong run in Q4.
Bullish news by Fed regarding bank buybacks that has yet to be taken advantage of by $GS.
Entry: >$263
TG1: $269
TG2: $276
Extended TG3: $283
Invalidated: <$254
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Biden Market. $SPY Examining the weeks ahead. The Market is at a pivotal moment where we could see significant downside, or possible upside. Ill be waiting to see how the market reacts to the election when futures open up Sunday night. At the moment we are up against a large resistance on the daily and if rejected due to a news type catalyst, hold on to your ass cause we are gonna find suport and quick, but I am a hopeful bull right now but always ready to play the downside.
DXY Bullish in my opinion.. Week Sept 13-18I feel like the DXY will reach 94 this week. it keeps turning the old resistance into support.. The Fed does come in and talk this week. I don't believe they will stimulate the markets or be too quick to turn on the printer until the election is over, due to the fact that they won't allocate gov spending without knowing who will be in office. Also the stock market is the verge of plunging, bringing more value to the dollar
RSI 1 HR + RISING WEDGEAs you can see the rsi hit 80 on the 1 hr and faded hard end of day.
Right now futures are tanking.
Lets see if we make it back to the 2600 level and fall through or bounce back up.
Rising wedge is a continuation pattern in a bear market.
Let's see how this plays out.
