JPX — Trading Ideas on TradingView

NIKKEI 1W forecast until end of July 2025 Broadening wedge formation on the table - a lot of sideways movement within the range of 38,758 and 36,607 Upward momentum will last for a couple of weeks more. The most likely top is 38,758 Starting from second half of June 2025 we may see a start of correction strong, but healthy. Correction/rest bottom is expected in mid July at 37,075 and should not fall deeper than 36,607 Second half of July the index would probably try to climb up to 58,758 with doubtful success.

GBPJPY Bears in Sight as Japan Mulls Currency Intervention Bearish GBPJPY as Japan's key economic ministers warn of currency intervention Japan's key economic ministers have warned of currency market intervention, keeping investors wary of a further sell-off in the yen and weighing on the GBPJPY exchange rate. The yen has weakened sharply against the dollar in recent months, hitting its weakest level in nearly a year on Monday. This has been driven by a number of factors, including the Bank of Japan's commitment to ultra-low interest rates, while the US Federal Reserve has been raising rates aggressively. The recent warning from Japanese ministers has raised the prospect of further intervention to weaken the yen. This would be bad news for the GBPJPY exchange rate, as it would make Japanese exports more competitive and make British imports more expensive. As of October 10, 2023, GBPJPY is trading at 182. If Japanese authorities do intervene to weaken the yen, this could push GBPJPY down towards 175 or even lower. Traders should be cautious of long positions in GBPJPY in the near term, as the risk of intervention is high.

JPY Basket (FXCM) - LONG While I am not a die-hard fan of FXCM's Yen Basket (much prefer NAFTA + Japan vs. "the World"), this index/basket is clearly working on an turn here. It is still relatively week but has likely put the worst behind it. Now, it is all about acceleration which, judging from past behavior, ought to gain significant momentum. Again, I'd suggest to use this "basket" as an indicator rather than trading it outright - which is also possible. (Work in progress on a properly weighted NAFTA + Japan Index.)

USD/JPY Fundamental + Technical Macroeconomic Update | 3.14.23 The Japanese yen strengthened to 133 per dollar, reaching its highest levels in almost a month. This was due to the US regulators stepping in to protect depositors and financial institutions following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, causing speculation that the US Federal Reserve may take a less aggressive approach to policy tightening to avoid further risks to the financial system. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan, under Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s final policy meeting before retirement, maintained its ultra-low interest rates at its March meeting. Japanese policymakers made no indication of ending the bank’s yield curve control, preferring to hold off on big policy changes until Kuroda’s successor, Kazuo Ueda, steps in as head in April. The dollar index traded around 103.5 on Wednesday, nearing its weakest levels in a month. The recent turmoil in the US banking sector and the latest US inflation report caused investors to reassess the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy. Fresh data showed that the annual inflation rate in the US slowed further to 6% in February, in line with expectations. This led to money markets pricing an 80% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike from the Fed next week, lower than the half-percentage point increase expected a week ago. In the stock market, the Nikkei 225 Index rose 0.2% to above 27,250 while the broader Topix Index gained 0.7% to 1,960 on Wednesday, with banking stocks leading the rebound. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank had caused concern, but investors were hopeful that the worst of the fallout had passed. Financial stocks led the advance, with gains from Mitsubishi UFJ (4.3%), Sumitomo Mitsui (2.6%) and Mizuho Financial (2.4%). Minutes from the Bank of Japan’s January meeting showed that members reiterated the need to maintain ultra-easy policies, stating that it will take time to achieve the 2% inflation target in a sustainable and stable manner. Overall, there was optimism in the market, with investors betting on a smaller interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve next week.