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Kc

No frost in BrazilSeems like no frost in Brazil. It was a busy weeks last week and throughout the weekend with fears a frost could hit coffee areas. None has been confirmed and worst fears did not play out. Once all of this is digested I expect some downside opportunities as the market goes back into trading technicals rather than emotions. Quite oversold and we saw sell signals on RSI and Stochastik a while ago. Also, the 5 hour chart will provide with a sell signal, which has been a superb indicator of short term price action (5-10 days). I am short via 1x2 calendar put spreads, long the 135s in Q and short the 125s in U and various other like this. As we move lower, option vega will come in and provide some nice profits. Also, selling the Sep (U16) contract provides with some good premium as this is considered the frost month. Looking at futures spreads, they have been weak the past two trading sessions and also foreshadow price action. Support at 134, then nothing until 125
KShort
by mjhillpp
5
Still waiting, beware bulls; risk reward not so greatPro Long (Chart): - RSI and Stochastik created buy signal - Orange support line Pro Long (Physical): - ICE warehouse stocks new lows - spreads tightening ever so slightly Contra (Chart): - still in middle to upper end of trend channel - room to go in terms of lower Bollinger band - long term trend still down - risk/reward for long position not there IMHO I start looking into selling put spreads out in August or September. For example the U16 110/100 p spread. Due to the negative put skew, 1x2s also work great IMHO (selling the one buying the 2s are also an interesting idea).
K
by mjhillpp
Note quite yet, KC longCoffee nearing the orange support line around 122 (2nd month continuation, about 119-120 front month ). Interesting fact about this correction lower from 134 to 122 is that this is the first time in a couple years that we actually have an up-sloping support line (orange line). If the orange support holds this could mark a longer term trend reversal. On the downside further targets remain the lower Bbands as well as the previous lows around 113. IMHO selling put spreads out in Sep16 might be a good risk reward once we reach the orange line (U16 110/100 p spread). The U provides some decent premium over the other contracts as this is the frost scare month.
K
by mjhillpp
Arabica Coffee (KC) Breaks Downtrend Since Mid OctoberKC put in its strongest weekly performance in about a month, reinforcing the line in the sand at the 180 horizontal support zone as seen in the attached chart. The 180 level also coincides with the uptrend support line connecting the low earlier in the week with the January 2014 low. Based on the renewed upward momentum these last few days, and the apparent break of the downtrend from mid October, it would appear that the uptrend line break (which appeared last week if you imagine an uptrend support line connecting the same January 2014 low with the July and September 2014 lows) gave a false sell signal alert. The daily Stochastics and RSI are now trending up strongly from oversold levels, while the daily MACD is beginning to positively crossover. Some profittaking can be expected early next week, but the general trend in the next few weeks should be up, with a target next week around 205-206, followed by the next target at the October high. Feel free to visit stks.co for yesterday's technical analysis on $KC_F, $VIX, $ES_F, $NQ_F, $EURUSD, $DX_F, $SB_F, $AUDUSD, $CT_F, $EURCHF, $GBPUSD, $SI_F Website: tradablepatterns.com FB: facebook.com Stocktwits: stocktwits.com Twitter: twitter.com Linkedin: www.linkedin.com YouTube: www.youtube.com Google+: google.com Email: [email protected]
KLong
by TradablePatterns