KC1! @ daily @ nearest (of 32 commodities) to it`s all-time highThis is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
.zip (with PDF`s) @ my Google Drive
In percents away from all-time high & low by last close (32 Commodities)
drive.google.com
Best regards :)
Aaron
KC2!
Coffee -- trying to catch )This time, after a good sell, technical side is showing some signals for long opportunity.
Position is open from 154,6-155,4 levels; stop below lows (154).
Will closely watch for a next couple of days to get confirmation or denial.
KC shortUpdate on a upsloping trendline (blue) which acts as resistance
On the 5 hour chart, we should have generated a sell signal.
I still remain short via puyt spread 1x2s, as frost is no longer an issue. It appears the market is still digesting this from last week and should correct lower IMHO as physical supplies out of Brazil remain steady.
Warehouse stocks in EU and US plenty as well.
Dont get me wrong, as shown in the blue channel, even if we have a correction lower, the blue trend channel might indicate a change in trend, however the frost damage is simply not there and in order to rally, this market would need breaking news like that.... without anything of that sort coming out, I see a correction lower before making new highs.
Still, knowing coffee, I remain short with 1x2 calendar spreads, buying the downside 1 leg in one month and selling 2 lower puts in a month further back.
No frost in BrazilSeems like no frost in Brazil. It was a busy weeks last week and throughout the weekend with fears a frost could hit coffee areas. None has been confirmed and worst fears did not play out.
Once all of this is digested I expect some downside opportunities as the market goes back into trading technicals rather than emotions.
Quite oversold and we saw sell signals on RSI and Stochastik a while ago.
Also, the 5 hour chart will provide with a sell signal, which has been a superb indicator of short term price action (5-10 days).
I am short via 1x2 calendar put spreads, long the 135s in Q and short the 125s in U and various other like this. As we move lower, option vega will come in and provide some nice profits.
Also, selling the Sep (U16) contract provides with some good premium as this is considered the frost month.
Looking at futures spreads, they have been weak the past two trading sessions and also foreshadow price action.
Support at 134, then nothing until 125
