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Kiwidollar

NZD/USD 2 moves away from wiping out June’s rallyThe RBNZ is widely expected to hold the Official Cash Rate at 3.25% this Wednesday. NZIER’s Shadow Board advises against a cut, noting the economy remains weak but inflation pressures are mixed. Markets see just a 10–15% chance of a cut this week but still price for further easing by October. NZD/USD has pulled back sharply from 0.6100, with price now possibly consolidating around 0.6000. This area coincides with a key support-turned-resistance level that capped price action in mid-June. If the pair breaks below 0.5980, the next support sits near 0.5935 – a level that triggered a strong bounce on June 21. A break below that could open the way toward 0.5900 and 0.5860. On the upside, if the 0.6000 handle holds, short-term resistance lies at 0.6030, with stronger pressure at 0.6065.
by BlackBull_Markets
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Long
by The-Thief
AUD and NZD: WTH? RBNZ now in focusRisk aversion intensified on Friday, sending the Australian dollar down 4.56% and the New Zealand dollar 3.53% lower. The declines followed a move by US President Donald Trump to impose a 10% tariff on imports from both Australia and New Zealand. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese confirmed there would be no retaliation, noting the US represents less than 5% of Australia’s export market. New Zealand, with a higher 12% exposure, also ruled out countermeasures. For the New Zealand dollar, markets will now be focused on this week’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision, where a 25-basis point rate cut is widely expected. Barring further tariff news, this could be the most important event determining whether this sell-off continues.
by BlackBull_Markets
Why is the NZD attracting buyers?The NZD/USD pair has shown significant resilience, climbing to 0.5631 this week, marking a solid recovery from its previous low of 0.5542. This upward momentum is largely driven by China's proactive economic stimulus measures, which have positively impacted New Zealand due to their strong trade relationship. The People's Bank of China’s commitment to maintaining liquidity and stabilizing the Yuan has provided additional support to the kiwi, enhancing its trade outlook. However, traders remain vigilant, focusing on forthcoming decisions by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and monitoring global market conditions closely. Despite the recent gains, the US dollar's overall strength, supported by a robust economic outlook for 2025, continues to exert pressure, creating a dynamic trading environment for the NZD/USD pair. As these factors converge, the pair's trajectory will depend on the interplay between domestic policies in New Zealand and broader international economic developments.
by tastyfx
1
NZD/USD price action: kiwi softens amid economic uncertaintyThe NZD/USD pair fell to 0.57592, reflecting significant pressure from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) ongoing monetary easing strategy, which includes recent interest rate cuts and the potential for further reductions in 2025. This easing is meant to stimulate New Zealand's economic activity by boosting consumer spending and investment. However, the growing divergence between New Zealand's and the U.S.'s monetary policies could lead to additional depreciation of the kiwi. The Federal Reserve's consideration of interest rate hikes, amid rising U.S. inflation expectations, strengthens the U.S. dollar, potentially attracting global investors seeking better returns and causing capital outflows from New Zealand. These factors could further pressure the NZD. Meanwhile, China's upcoming economic stimuli, expected to be announced at the annual Politburo conference, could positively impact the kiwi due to New Zealand's strong trade ties with China. Additionally, upcoming U.S. inflation data will likely influence market expectations regarding future Fed actions, which could further shape NZD/USD dynamics. Traders should prepare for volatility in the NZD/USD pair as these global economic developments unfold.
by tastyfx
RBNZ implements jumbo cut; Kiwi dollar plummeted Following the Fed's lead, the RBNZ also took a big step. The RBNZ took the jumbo step of cutting its benchmark interest rate by 50bps, bringing it down from 5.25% to 4.75%. RBNZ stated that New Zealand's economy is now in excess capacity, and low import prices fuel deflation. They insisted that the committee unanimously confirmed that domestic economic activity is decelerating, as business investment and consumer spending are weakening, and employment conditions are persistently deteriorating. As hopes for the Fed’s additional rate cut diminish, the US dollar is on the rise, while the Kiwi dollar has dropped briefly to 0.6050, matching its lowest since 18th August. NZDUSD advanced to 0.6095 after breaching the ascending channel’s upper bound. If NZDUSD breaches the resistance at 0.6110, the price could gain upward momentum toward 0.6175. Conversely, if NZDUSD fails to hold above the channel’s upper bound and breaks below the support at 0.6050, the price could fall further to 0.5960.
by inkicho_exness
NZD Sinking as RBNZ Preps 50bps Cut The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to slash the Official Cash Rate by 50 basis points this Wednesday, a move that's adding pressure on the New Zealand dollar. A Reuters survey of 28 economists reveals that 60% anticipate the central bank will deliver a half-point cut, while market pricing suggests near-certainty of such a decision. Major banks—ANZ, ASB, BNZ, Kiwibank, and Westpac—are all forecasting a similar outcome. The kiwi has fallen to $0.611, down 3.33% since last Monday, extending its decline into a key technical zone, marked by the 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, as well as the 50% retracement level from the July rally. Meanwhile, escalating tensions in the Middle East are further driving investors into the safe-haven U.S. dollar.
by BlackBull_Markets
NZD/USD powering higher as business confidence, milk prices surg- NZD/USD hits highs not seen since early January - Latest leg higher fueled by big improvement in New Zealand business confidence - Kiwi likely to outperform as long as traders continue to see a soft US economic landing About the only thing rising as fast as dairy prices is New Zealand business confidence right now, and both are beneficial for NZD/USD which has surged to seven-month highs. Who said Kiwis can’t fly? Kiwi flying on dairy strength, soaring business confidence As covered in a separate note last week, NZD/USD has been a major benefactor of recent US dollar weakness, not only enjoying tailwinds from narrowing interest rate differentials but also soaring dairy prices. You can now add bullish New Zealand business confidence to the growing list of Kiwi tailwinds. The confidence measure in the ANZ Bank New Zealand Business Outlook survey surged to a decade-high in August, surging 23 points to +51. Expectations for own activity also bounced, hitting fresh seven-year highs. The bounce in optimism followed the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) first interest rate cut of the cycle earlier in the month, with the bank signalling a further 100 basis points of easing by the middle of next year. “Things are definitely looking up, albeit from a pretty dark place for many firms,” ANZ’s economics team wrote. “It wasn’t the Reserve Bank’s cut to the Official Cash Rate (OCR) that kicked off the lift – we saw an increase across much of the survey already in July, and the further large jump in August was already evident when the survey first opened at the very beginning of the month. The table below from ANZ details just how impressive the improvement in the surveys internal components was during the month. NZD/USD remains a buy-on-dips play Having chopped back and forth through former resistance at .6218 earlier this week, the data has seen the Kiwi rocket higher in Asian trade on Thursday, hitting levels not seen since early January, breaking through another layer of resistance at .6277 in the process. The question now is whether it can hold there? RSI (14) and MACD continue to provide bullish signals on the daily timeframe, although the former is now bordering on overbought territory. Even so, the inclination remains to buy dips rather than sell rallies in the near-term. With nothing else on the New Zealand calendar this week, the biggest threat to the bullish trend arguably comes from incoming US labour market data which has been highly influential on Fed interest rate pricing over recent months, placing emphasis on initial jobless claims that will be released later in the session. For a cyclical currency like the Kiwi, mild weakness screens as bullish. So too mild strength as both would allow the Fed to begin cutting rates without sparking fears of an impending recession. But if the data were to weaken dramatically, that would be problematic given the Kiwi comes across as a high beta play on the global economy. If the US were to fall into recession, narrowing interest rate differentials would be more than overridden by fears of weaker demand, hammering risker cyclical plays as a consequence. However, such an outcome screens as unlikely on this occasion, potentially opening the door for the Kiwi to keep rising. My preference would be to see how the data prints before entering positions. If the price pushes above .6277, you could buy with a stop below the level for protection. .63695 is one potential target. Alternatively, if it can’t hold .6277, you could sell with a stop above the level for protection targeting a pullback to either .6218 or .6150. -- Written by David Scutt
Long
by WHSelfInvest
NZDUSD: Profit taking into RBNZ decisionNZDUSD – technical overview Overall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action. R2 0.6222 – 12 June high – Strong R1 0.6200 – Figure – Medium S1 0.6048 – 2 July low – Medium S2 0.6031 – 15 May low – Strong NZDUSD – fundamental overview There is no change expected from the RBNZ today, though we have seen profit taking into the event risk. We've also seen some Kiwi selling on the New Zealand Treasury's reporting of weaker sales, with consumers experiencing hardship. Absence of first tier data on Wednesday’s calendar will leave the focus on another round of Fed Chair testimony and some Fed speak. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets
Bearish Signals Intensify for NZDUSD Below 0.5800NZDUSD – technical overview Overall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action. R2 0.6083 – 10 April high – Strong R1 0.5985 – 29 April high – Medium S1 0.5852 – 19 April 2024 low – Medium S2 0.5800 – Figure – Medium NZDUSD – fundamental overview RBNZ Governor Orr and Deputy Governor Hawkesby spoke earlier in the session before a parliamentary committee as part of their scheduled Financial Stability Report briefing. Hawkesby said that while there had been an increase in the proportion of non-performing loans, this had been "largely as predicted six months ago," and "provisions hadn't risen or weren't projected to rise as far as they had." On the data front, New Zealand building permits were balanced on the whole. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from German and Eurozone manufacturing PMIs, Canada trade, US trade, US initial jobless claims, and US factory orders. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets
Ladies and Gentlemen, get ready 2 fasten belts 4 take offPrevious forecasts have been achieved, prices have dropped below 0.5859. A price pivot zone near 0.5810, which appeared a year ago, has been reached. We believe it is possible to begin cautious purchases (high risk). Our trading strategy indicates that an upward reversal will occur when levels around 0.5930 are reached on Monday-Tuesday of the upcoming week. Furthermore, we expect continued growth towards the area of 0.6000 and beyond. We expect a potential revisit of last week's lows, but the depth of the breakdown will not be significant.
Long
by ForbesRatingN1
Continuing with the previous forecastThe movement has become more complex, but the overall market picture continues to align with our expectations. After a considerable upward momentum, there was a swift decline. Our trading strategy signals and confirms of the downward impulse completion, suggesting a possible, albeit relatively deep (we do not exclude a rise even up to 0.6000), short-term correction, followed by a new downward impulse with a retest of the October 4th low at 0.58708. The ultimate target is the retest of the September 5th low at 0.5859. Trading recommendations: Open sell positions during the upward correction of the currency pair. The range of 0.5960-0.5985 appears interesting for selling opportunities.
Short
by ForbesRatingN1
The stop-loss hunting will be continueSince the end of August until now, we have seen multiple breakouts of both highs and lows, but the market has yet to establish a clear direction. We believe that there is intentional stop-loss hunting and positioning for a subsequent upward move. The positioning is not yet complete. Therefore, we expect a new downward wave. According to our strategy, the first downward impulse will exceed the range from the September 1st high of 0.6015 to the September 5th low of 0.5859. In other words, the minimum target for the decline will be the level of 0.5891, and the actual target will be slightly below the September 13th low of 0.58799. After that, there will be a rebound limited to about 2%, and then the September 5th low of 0.5859 will be updated. Recommended trade: Selling on a rebound in the upward course. A good range would be between 0.6015 and 0.6020. Place a stop-loss at 0.6050. Target at 0.5861.
Short
by ForbesRatingN1
2
NZDUSD Short Trade Setup A short trade opportunity recently presented itself on the kiwi-dollar trading chart 📉. This is indicated by the bearish engulfing candlestick 🕯️ pattern just on the 0.60210 horizontal resistance level. This indicates a false breakout (fakeout) of the same level, with potential price move in the downward 👇 ⬇️ direction. Sufficient downward momentum should see price dumping towards the 0.59000 psychological level and possibly testing the strength of the 0.58590 horizontal support level. As always, please apply appropriate risk management. Happy trading!
Short
by charles-okoukoni
1