London Take 1 - 5/6/2025 - GBPUSDInitial comments ...updates will follow as usual.
London Setup for GBPUSD.
KR
Quantum's KR Trading Guide 4/11/25
KR (Kroger Company)
Sentiment
• Analysis: Market sentiment for KR is neutral leaning bullish. Post-close options activity on April 10 shows balanced put/call volume, with slight call dominance at strikes near $69, suggesting cautious optimism. RSI (14) at the April 10 close (estimated ~60 based on recent uptrend to $67.96) indicates momentum without overbought conditions, supporting a potential continuation. Anonymized X chatter highlights speculation on grocery sector stability amid tariff uncertainties, with some noting KR’s domestic focus as a hedge against import risks. A potential liquidity sweep above recent highs ($68.76) could signal institutional buying, setting up a reversal to the upside.
Catalyst: Watch for a sweep above $68.76 triggering bullish momentum, driven by retail investor interest on X.
Tariff Impact - Rating: Minimal.
• Explanation: KR’s exposure to tariffs is limited due to its primarily domestic supply chain and focus on U.S.-sourced goods. While imported specialty products could face cost pressures, these are a small fraction of revenue. No tariff relief or escalation was announced on April 10, so sentiment remains stable. Fundamentals are unaffected, but speculative X posts suggest tariff fears could cap upside unless clarity emerges.
News/Catalysts
• No specific company news on April 10, but sector strength in consumer staples drove modest gains, with KR benefiting from defensive positioning amid broader market volatility. X posts noted KR as a “safe play” in uncertain times.
• Upcoming: CPI Data (Today, April 11): Stronger-than-expected CPI could pressure consumer staples (-1% move) as investors rotate to cyclicals; weaker CPI could boost KR (+2%) as a defensive name.
• Retail Sales (April 15): Robust data may signal consumer strength, lifting KR (+1.5%); weak data could hurt (-1%) due to spending concerns.
Technical Setup
Weekly Chart:
• HVN: $66.50 as support (bullish, price above).
• LVN: $70.00 as resistance (neutral, price below).
• EMA Trend: 8-week > 13-week > 48-week (bullish uptrend).
• RSI (14): ~62 (bullish, above 50).
• MACD: Above signal line (bullish).
• Bollinger Bands: Near upper band (bullish).
• Donchian Channels: Above midline (bullish).
• Williams %R: ~-20 (neutral, not overbought).
• ADR: Expanding (bullish, volatility rising).
• VWAP: Above weekly VWAP at $67.00 (bullish).
• ICT/SMC: Higher highs/lows confirm bullish Market Structure Shift (MSS).
One-Hour Chart:
• Support/Resistance: Support at $67.50 (weekly HVN confluence); resistance at $68.76 (daily high). Stance: bullish above support.
• RSI (14): ~65 (bullish).
• MACD: Above signal (bullish).
• Bollinger Bands: At upper band (neutral, potential pullback).
• Donchian Channels: Above midline (bullish).
• Williams %R: ~-15 (neutral).
• VWAP: Above hourly VWAP at $68.20 (bullish).
• ICT/SMC: Buy-side liquidity above $68.76; Order Block (OB) at $67.50 demand zone; FVG at $68.00–$68.10; OTE (Fib 61.8%) at $68.30; displacement seen in early April 11 rally.
10-Minute Chart:
• Closing Move: Strong rally into April 10 close, holding above $67.96.
• EMA Direction: 8/13/48 EMAs rising (bullish).
• RSI (14): ~60 (neutral).
• MACD: Above zero (bullish).
• VWAP: Above VWAP at $68.30 (bullish).
• ICT/SMC: Liquidity sweep above $68.40 in pre-market; retracement to OTE at $68.30; pin bar forming as entry signal.
Options Data
• GEX: Neutral, slight bullish pinning at $68. Dealers may buy stock to hedge, supporting price at $68–$69. Explanation: Gamma Exposure balances calls/puts, stabilizing price near strikes.
• DEX: Moderate call delta bias (+0.25), indicating bullish pressure. Explanation: Net call buying drives directional momentum.
• IV: Moderate (~22%, near norm), suggesting steady swings. Explanation: Implied Volatility supports consistent options pricing.
• OI: Call-heavy (60% calls at $69 strike), favoring upside momentum. Explanation: Open Interest at $69 signals potential breakout target.
Cem Karsan’s Application:
• Weekly Trading Breakdown: High call OI at $69 (exp. April 18) suggests pinning or breakout potential. Gamma supports stability at $68; vanna indicates dealers buy on IV spikes to 23%, lifting price. Charm accelerates delta near OPEX, favoring $69 calls if in-the-money.
• Strategy: Buy $69 calls at $68.30 (OTE), exit at $69.50, profit $0.50, risk $0.40. Ties to liquidity sweep above $68.76, targeting $69 OB.
• Vanna: Rising IV to 23% could push dealers to buy, lifting KR to $69 (bullish).
• Charm: Near OPEX, $69 calls hold delta if ITM, boosting volatility.
Timeframe Analysis:
• Weekly (exp. April 18): 60% call OI at $69, moderate IV, bullish stance.
• Monthly (exp. May 16): Balanced OI, stable IV, neutral stance.
• 3-Month (exp. July 18): Slight call skew, low IV, bullish outlook.
• Directional Bias: Bullish, driven by call OI, positive GEX, and OTE setup at $68.30.
Sympathy Plays
• Correlated Assets: WMT (+2% if KR rallies), COST (+1.5%).
• Opposite Mover: If KR rallies (defensive), risk-on names like SHOP fade (-1%).
Sector Positioning with RRG
• Sector: Consumer Staples – Food Retail.
• RRG Position: Improving vs. XLP ETF, aligning with bullish sentiment and technicals.
Targets
• Bullish: +3% to $70.50 (next liquidity zone, OB at $70).
• Bearish: -2% to $66.60 (FVG at $66.50).
KR The Kroger Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on KR:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of KR The Kroger prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 60usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-1-17,
for a premium of approximately $3.05.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
KHC approaching VWAP and looking to rise higher LONGKHC is a consumer staples, not a high flyng tech stock. Content to grind out a trend and take its
time, it now looks to rise from sideways action since the last earnings. It is approaching the
anchored VWAP where the big players sit waiting to pick up shares in the high volatility and
volume zone and so earn a living from other traders who are not as savvy. Rising relative
strengh supports a long trade here as does the Price Volume Trend. I find some balance with
slow and easy swing trades to offset the chaos and volatility of the IT/ AI /Technology sectors.
TSN a consumer staples play to hedge against recession LONGTSN is shown on a reliable weekly chart- long idea from an inverted H & S and multiple
indicators. Stop is 51 targets are on the chart . If the fan gets hit, food is queen while
cash is king.
KR Kroger Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on KR:
nor sold before the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of KR Kroger prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 50usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-4-19,
for a premium of approximately $2.01.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
May be close to a bottom, pending dead cat bounce?It could be rough next couple of weeks. Market can rally from middle of October until early January. This can continue to crash next year as showed with my arrows.
This is just a prediction and not an advice.
KR The Kroger Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bough KR ahead of the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of KR The Kroger prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 46usd strike price at the money Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-1-19,
for a premium of approximately $2.34.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
RAD - Is there such a thing as a safe SHORT?If there was ever a thing such as a safe short- I think it would be Rite Aid (RAD)
As shown on a monthly chart, RAD triple topped in 2015=2017 and has been in a decline
every since. It has shed 90% of its market cap in the intervening 6-8 years. Now, it is
fundamentally fighting for survival. This is because as a weaker drugstore retailer and
the rise of Walgreens, CVS and others as well as RAD's role in the opioid epidemic
( I have insider knowledge) RAD is now filing for bankruptcy protection against
claims and litigation which will vastly outstrip its liability protections. All confirmations
on the monthly chart ( high validity given the time frame) considered in context, RAD
is near to its death bed. The judge will be ing the rights of shareholders against the rights
of litigants ( which include Medicare, Medicaid and state governments). The shareholders will
loose and loose very badly. I will go short in a stock trade and take a large put option position.
There is no need to buy call options here for backside protection. The writing is on the wall.
KR a food sector leader for a safe modest trade LONGKR in early August rose from its usual range into a head and shoulders from which
it trended down into its present lower base. I see this as a good setup for a long
trade to reach to and possibly beyond the mid Fibonacci retracement levels also
confluent with horizontal R/S lines drawn from the pivots to the left. I will take
the very safe long trade taking partials at the levels above as drawn onto the chart
with 30% at the 1st and 2nd partials and 20% for the 3rd and last. I will also
take a trade in some call options. If you would like my idea of the best calls
in my opinion, please leave a comment.
KR The Kroger Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain of KR The Kroger prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 45usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-6-16,
for a premium of approximately $2.04.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
KR - Up Channel, Middle SupportAn up channel is present on KR
I expect a fall as due to the double top at (2) back to the middle line where support can take hodl.
Weekly timeframe.
The 1,2 pattern is a sort of M pattern
Food Gaint Kroger reverses from a trend downKR has an overall fairly narrow trading range. On this 4H chart, it is presently in a symmetrical
triangle or slowly rising wedge. Earnings beats have been respectable. KR reversed on June 1
at the trending support line and is heading toward overhead resistance. Just before that upper
resistance trendline is the POC line of the high volume area of the profile where high volatility
and increased trading could result in a bounce and fall. Confirmation is found in the zero-lag
MACD indicator which shows a K /D line cross under the histogram.
I will take a long trade on KR (reversion to the mean) with the stop loss at that pivot low on
June 1st and the target a nickel below the POC line at 48.95. I see this as a low-risk and low
reward trade which may also be the basis for adding a low risk call options trade to the
options portfolio.
Can BYND rise from its support /demand ( multiyear low) ?BYND had it surge in the post Covid months. As seen on the weekly chart, multiple
touches of the supply / resistance zone occurred in the range of $160-180 per share.
Price is now at 5-10% of the highs and at the multi-year lows. Volume is weak.
The RSI swing indicator has given a buy signal but I am skeptical. BYND is heavily shorted
and sellers have dominated. My idea is to set an alert for a price of %15.00.
The volume profile both short and longer term shows a lot of buying at the current price range.
My idea is to set an alert for $15. If BYND can get there, some momentum might be achieved
especially if some short sellers feel some pain and look to buy to cover and close.
Otherwise any down trends in the general market will tend to drag BYND down as well.
New Entry Potential For Kroger with long term performanceKroger is a national supermarket chain with multiple departments as it needs to compete with more prominent players who have moved into the grocery home delivery business. The competition includes Amazon and Walmart over the last few years. To stay ahead, Kroger has implemented innovative delivery and promotional working strategies that appear to be working. Also, since 2022 Kroger has established a floor price that could enable it to get a hefty return over the next few years. Home food delivery is something to consider as we move into an uncertain economic time. KR will be a classic defensive stock to hold.
Innovating marketing includes delivery and coupon strategies. It seems that this grocery chain is set up for almost guaranteed long-term success.
Since 2022, Kroger has beaten the market estimates consistently, unlike other stocks. Moreover, a floor in the stock price was established at the beginning of last year.
Kroger has overwhelmingly institutional market analyst support for recommended buys.
Red arrow shows SMA for new entry potential
Current Metric Data Catalyst Shows Outperformance In Sector
Over the last few weeks, Kroger has returned 6% in the previous 20 working days, with 3% in the last 50 working days. As I like to only trade stocks with a relatively low volatile rate of under 0.4, Kroger is lately at 0.31, which is within my tolerance. However, as we all know, potential entry is based on timing. As it seems, the Aroon Up signal is showing a 100 rating, whereas the Aroon Down is 57. So if one waits until the Aroon Down signal is closer to 0, it is an excellent time to dip into Kroger.
When one looks at a consensus of institutional market recommendations for upgrades, one will see it is vastly overwhelmed with 16 buys, six holds, and one sell. Once again, this helps overlay a buying condition for Kroger.
Considering 2022 was a relatively weak and challenging year, Kroger has proven to exceed the estimated earnings of last year, including its latest quarter. So it is clear that momentum has been underway for a while and should continue over the long run.
Valuation Continues to Build With Delivery Strategy
Over the long run, Kroger has built a market strategy using data and innovation to help customers save $1.4 billion. Kroger has pioneered a personal approach for its customers to allow them to make better choices in the food product they buy, which is accomplished by offering various coupon strategies. The latest survey hinted that 80% of shoppers preferred this way. As long as Kroger implements these strategies, it can stay ahead of the market to sustain its stock price momentum over the long run. It also helps Kroger be an intelligent choice for investing in over the long run as we move into a potential recession. Everyone needs to buy food regardless of economic conditions.
Kroger Refines Data Capabilities as Grocers Personalize | PYMNTS.com
It is also important to note that customers in fast-growing cities like Austin, Texas, want to ensure that product freshness is of high-quality standards. A new store in Austin was tested using this strategy which is becoming the future for Kroger. In addition, the shipment of these products, which professional associates deliver, helps implement higher customer satisfaction, which builds loyalty as we move into a recession. This also helps expand Kroger's customer base as competition may get fierce.
Also, Kroger has opened a Dallas facility linked to this Austin store. All ordered products will be put on refrigerated delivery trucks, then delivered to customers' front doors.
Once customers are satisfied with innovative distribution ideas, Kroger can roll this out to larger city centers and stay ahead of the competition. This will help Kroger find new key growth drivers, which will help drive digital sales by 12% in the fourth quarter of 2022. There was also a growth of 22% in their no-contact delivery solutions. As a result, Kroger builds revenue and generates new profitability overall in delivery solutions.
Kroger (KR) Expands Delivery Capabilities, Efforts on Track - March 31, 2023 - Zacks.com
Harmonic Upper target Reveals Profitable Target
Based on the upper target of the most recent harmonic scan, Kroger may have a relatively high upper target of $65 based on stock pricing data over the last three years. The current price of nearly $50 represents a decent opportunity for long-term investment returns. Its base of just over $40 has been established for the last year. As positive market momentum continues, this target should be closely met over the next year. As mentioned, Kroger maybe be an outstanding defensive stock as we move into a recession.
Harmonic scan (Custom platform)
Lower Risk is Minimal As Compared To Long-Term Momentum
As Kroger proved its outperformance in an inferior market in 2022, this stock should be a classic defensive investment over the long run—the only risk to prevent that from happening are unfavorable economic conditions or more innovative competitors. Even if economic conditions were to go into a downturn, it is critical to understand that Kroger has implemented various strategies to deliver food to its customers conveniently. Even if another pandemic was to evolve, Kroger has implemented an intelligent no-contact delivery process right to customers' homes. There seem to be very few restrictions that could hold back Kroger's long-term success.
Conclusion Is That KR Could Outperform Most Stocks
With proven positive trends for Kroger over the last year, KR is almost guaranteed to increase its value and stock price. It has also implemented an intelligent delivery strategy with promotional coupon techniques to meet any economic condition; I see no real reason why Kroger should not be successful. As a result, I put this stock as a buy right along with other institutional analysts.
KR SWING TRADE IDEAChart patterns are very subjective. I see this as a symmetrical triangle, meaning it could break in either direction. But if I adjust my trend line, I also see it as a rising wedge, which is a bearish chart pattern.
Either way, I will look for a break above 45 for calls with a target of 50.30, OR a break below with a target of 41. Either move will be an amazing swing!
KR SHORT IDEANYSE:KR
KR made a big move this week after the Q2 earnings call. I believe that it is now overextended.
On the 15-minute chart, the big price action is seen. However, the RSI indicator shows a flat relative
strength suggestive of bearish divergence. The Mass Index peaked out over 27.5 and is now dropped
below is the suggested trigger for a reversal of 26.5 Trading volume is about 250% of the average
on Friday overall while concentrated on the early morning rapid trend reversal and late afternoon
profit taking. I will look to capitalize on a quick downtrend correction with a put option with
5DTE below the current market price for maximal return albeit with the added risk of time decay.
KR - Further Bullish ActionParallel line drawn against the dominant uptrend line in green allows the price target of $71 to be drawn
The similarity begins with the double bottom patterns
4D chart
Is a nordic matterThey may speak different languages but they are identical.
Now that´s a lovely chart there, is like to good to be true.
Be wise, don´t work for money make money work for you.
KR nice trianglePrice is squeezing inside descending triangle.
Ideally price will squeeze a little longer and get some energy before a break.
Watch for the break...
$KR Kroger remains bullish after PEGKroger recently came out of a cup and handle with a Power Earnings Gap (PEG) and has been digesting ever since, holding most gains and creating a nice VCP / Bullpennant like formation.
Today, there were about $117M in dark pools at $57, and giving the timing and price action my bias is to the buy side.
An idea would be to go long shares or calls with time.
I'm long the JUL 60c with 5,300 OI.
"A stock is never to high to buy" - Kroger patienceFor more than a year I have been watching Kroger NYSE:KR stock. I stop there every time I buy groceries so it is one of those companies that fall under "Cupboard Investing" in stocks you know and use. For something as mundane as selling groceries it is quite a volatile stock.
The history really begins in 2020 when a member of my Discord who is very bullish the stock got me interested. Kroger had a big earnings dip on December 2020 and I hesitated to pull the trigger. I prefer to only enter any instrument on an indicator defined setup. Entering on the drop would have just been a "gut trade" on my bullish bias. So I waited. For reasons unknown the stock got a massive RIP in January during the Meme Stock Madness that month. Clearly I had missed the run. So I waited.
It took 10 months until October 2021 before on my daily scans I finally saw KR with a bullish Spike Alert. It fit my rules for happening at a 50% Retracement Level so I went in. The trade played out to the first target with no problems and I left on shares for the long term position I desired.
Patience pays off. Do just jump into a stock on FOMO. You'll always get an opportunity even if it takes months of disciplined waiting if you are diligent.
