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Kwacha

Zambian Kwacha Technical Outlook - A Wave Analysts PerspectiveUSDZMW seems to have reached what appears to be a major market top after completing a classic 5 wave Elliott impulse cycle on the monthly timeframe. This marks the end of a multi-decade bullish structure and signals the beginning of a corrective phase potentially reshaping Zambia’s FX landscape in the medium term. Key Technical Insights: The final Wave 5 peaked at 28.97, followed by a sharp decline to 23.90 (at the time of this publication). A corrective ABC structure is now likely underway with fibonacci based downside targets around: Target 1: $1 = K22.31 – minor correction (23.6%) Target 2: $1 = K18.30 – medium correction (38.2%) Target 3: $1 = K15.05 – deep retracement (50% of the main wave on monthly TF) While various fundamentals, copper prices, debt restructuring and prevailing fiscal policies play a role, this technical setup suggests a strong medium to long term appreciation of the Kwacha is on the cards. We may be witnessing the early stages of a multiyear FX shift. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes ONLY and does not constitute financial advice in any way. Market conditions are subject to change and all trading involves risk.
Short
by Timgucci
1
USDZMW (Where do we go from here?)So I have been privately analyzing USDZMW since 2015 and this idea of the USDZMW was created in 2021 after the elections(SEE BLUE HIGHLIGHTED PERIOD from 09 Nov 20 to 16 Aug 2021). Make of it what you will but the 29.71 price range if achieved could spell uncertainty. We have been in an up trend for the majority of the time and the drop from 22 to 16 seemed to have been a consolidation area that was eventually broken out of and rejected for a powerful breakout that brought us to 26. Now we have experience a small consolidaiton and it breaks out and upward it will achieve our 29.71 target.
Long
by LordGareth
5
USDZMW/Technical AnalysisWe might see a strong buy side liquidity on USD/ZMW, W formation formed on Monthly Time Frame after price hit our MTG at k15 which is likely to head back to k22.50 Zone, it has also broken another liquidity zone (OB) at k19.28 meaning that we still have a strong bullish run, Price might be heading back to fill the VOID from the heavy sell liquidity we had from July 2021 - August 2021. Kwacha is yet to depreciate drastically till proper Fundamental and Economic Policies are put in place.
Long
by Mutobo
My thoughts on USDZMWCurrently, the Zambian kwacha is facing several challenges that are impacting its value in the foreign exchange market. One of the main factors is the high inflation rate, which has been driven by a surge in food and fuel prices. In addition, the country's external debt has been on the rise, and this has led to a decline in investor confidence. These factors, combined with a slowdown in economic growth, have put pressure on the Kwacha's exchange rate. While it's difficult to predict the future movements of the currency, my technical view is that it could take another year before the Kwacha drops below K15 due to the technical factors at play.
by DalitsoTembo
1
TIME TO BUY THE KWACHAI think it's time to short the dollar and buy some Kwacha. Price perfectly bounced off the 200% fib level (K18.94 / $1) on the monthly time frame matching up the same price at 261.8% fib level on the weekly time frame. Going long term, I am seeing a week dollar and some Kwacha appreciation. I expected the Kwacha to appreciate to about K17/$1 and K15.41/$1 IF price breaks through the support of the monthly ascending channel . Disclaimer: This is only an idea and should not be taken as a trading signal.
Short
by Timgucci
1