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ELI LILLY Is starting its next big rally.Eli Lilly (LLY) is about to test its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) following a rebound just below the 1W MA100 (green trend-line). The latter, has been the ultimate market Support since May 2018 (last time it broke below it). The overall correction since the July 15 2024 High seems like a Bull Flag pattern, no different than all the others after 2018 which only served as healthy rebalancing of an overbought price action. Based on he 1W RSI in particular and the Bullish Divergence it displayed, the current Bull Flag resembles more the March - October 2019 pattern. Both that and the next one reached their 2.0 Fibonacci extensions. As a result, our long-term Target on LLY is just below the 2.0 Fib at $1300. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYSE:LLYLong
by TradingShot
1
Can Lilly Redefine Weight Loss Market Leadership?Eli Lilly is rapidly emerging as a dominant force in the burgeoning weight loss drug market, presenting a significant challenge to incumbent leader Novo Nordisk. Lilly has demonstrated remarkable commercial success despite its key therapy, Zepbound (tirzepatide), entering the market well after Novo Nordisk's Wegovy (semaglutide). Zepbound's substantial revenue in 2024 underscores its rapid adoption and strong competitive standing, leading market analysts to project Eli Lilly's obesity drug sales will surpass Novo Nordisk's within the next few years. This swift ascent highlights the impact of a highly effective product in a market with immense unmet demand. The success of Eli Lilly's tirzepatide, the active ingredient in both Zepbound and the diabetes treatment Mounjaro, stems from its dual mechanism targeting GLP-1 and GIP receptors, offering potentially enhanced clinical benefits. The company's market position was further solidified by a recent U.S. federal court ruling that upheld the FDA's decision to remove tirzepatide from the drug shortage list. This legal victory effectively halts compounding pharmacies from producing unauthorized, cheaper versions of Zepbound and Mounjaro, thereby protecting Lilly's market exclusivity and ensuring the integrity of the supply chain for the approved product. Looking ahead, Eli Lilly's pipeline includes the promising oral GLP-1 receptor agonist, orforglipron. Positive Phase 3 trial results indicate its potential as a convenient, non-injectable alternative with comparable efficacy to existing therapies. As a small molecule, orforglipron offers potential advantages in manufacturing scalability and cost, which could significantly expand access globally if approved. Eli Lilly is actively increasing its manufacturing capacity to meet anticipated demand for its incretin therapies, positioning itself to capitalize on the vast and growing global market for weight management solutions.
NYSE:LLYLong
by UDIS_View
Eli Lilly (LLY) Shares Fall Over 15% in MayEli Lilly (LLY) Shares Fall Over 15% in May The share price of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY), the world’s largest pharmaceutical company, has seen a sharp shift in market sentiment: → From its April low to high, LLY shares rose by over 30%; → However, since the start of May, the LLY stock price has dropped more than 15% — the closing price on the last trading day of April was around $895, while today the share is trading near $775. Why Are Eli Lilly (LLY) Shares Falling? The decline can be attributed to three key factors: 1→ Q1 Earnings Report: Although the company reported earnings per share above expectations ($3.34 vs $3.25), investors may have been concerned by significantly higher spending on research and development. 2→ Competitor Partnership: CVS Health’s announcement that it will offer Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy instead of Lilly’s Zepbound added further pressure to LLY shares. 3→ Sector Sentiment: Broader biotech sentiment turned negative following reports that the Trump administration is considering a pricing model that would cap drug prices based on lower rates in other countries. The media is also discussing upcoming decisions from Vinay Prasad, the new head of the FDA division overseeing vaccines and gene therapy. Technical Analysis: Eli Lilly (LLY) Share Chart Key price movements (marked on the chart) justify the formation of a downward channel. On the one hand, bearish sentiment may intensify in light of recent developments. The median line of the channel could act as resistance to any upward movement. On the other hand, bulls may find support around the $765 level — a former resistance point and the boundary between two price gaps. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NYSE:LLY
by FXOpen
Eli Lilly: Catch the Knife or Wait for Support?LLY Just Dropped — Opportunity or Trap? 🔥 LLY (Eli Lilly) is on every trader’s radar! With biotech momentum and blockbuster drug potential, this stock is ready to rip once the dust settles. Smart money is eyeing key zones for a golden entry. 💊📈 📉 New Entry Zones: 🔥 630.00 – Solid buy level 🔥 550.00 – Strong value zone 🔥 465.00 – Deep discount opportunity (load-up zone!) 🎯 Profit Targets: ✅ 730.00 📈 (First leg up) ✅ 800.00 🚀 (Breakout zone) ✅ 900.00+ 💰 (All-time high chase) 💡 Volatility creates opportunity. LLY is a beast in the pharma game—any dip could set up a powerful bounce. Watch for heavy accumulation and reversal signals near those buy zones! 🚀 Ready to ride the next wave? LLY’s runway is long and the upside is juicy! #LLY #PharmaStocks #BuyTheDip #GrowthPlays 📌 Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Do your own research and consult with a professional before investing. 🔎💼
NYSE:LLYLong
by Robert_V12
ELI LILLY: The time to buy and target 1,300 is now.Eli Lilly is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.409, MACD = -5.160, ADX = 28.927) and this is technically the most efficient level to buy for the long term towards the end of the year, as the price is sitting around its 1W MA50. The macro pattern is a Channel Up starting back in March 2019 and every time this broke under the 1W MA50 (but remained supported above the 1W MA100) and consolidated, it was the most efficient long term buy signal. In 6 years this has only happened 4 times and all those times the 1W RSI hit the 38.750 S1 level. The immediate target of all bullish waves that started after such bottoms, has been the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. Go long, TP = 1,300. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
NYSE:LLYLong
by InvestingScope
The Next Big Healthcare Stock?The chart for VERV shows a prolonged downtrend since mid-2021, with multiple resistance trendlines capping price action. However, the stock is now testing a potential breakout above these trendlines and the 50-week EMA (green line), which has acted as dynamic resistance. The RSI is rising above 60, signaling increasing bullish momentum, and the latest weekly candle, up 11.28%, suggests growing buying interest. If VERV successfully holds above this breakout zone, it could push toward the $10-$15 resistance range, confirming a trend shift. However, failure to sustain above the 50EMA could result in another rejection, reinforcing the downtrend. Volume is picking up, adding weight to the bullish case, but confirmation above key levels remains crucial for a sustained move higher. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading and investing involve risk, and independent research or consultation with a professional is recommended before making any financial decisions.
NASDAQ:VERVLong
by MysticMads
ELI LILLY ahead of a 1D Golden Cross targeting $1225Last time we looked at Eli Lilly (LLY) 3 months ago (November 21 2024, see chart below), we've identified the bottom of its 5-year Channel Up and issued a strong long-term buy signal: Now we are upgrading our Target as the price action turned out to be very similar to the 2nd half of 2020, at the end of which the company witnessed strong growth. As you can see both 2020 and 2024 patterns have been correction phases in the form of Channel Downs. Even their 1D RSI sequences are similar. A 1D Death Cross paved the way for the bottom soon after and a 1D Golden Cross (Jan 11 2021) confirmed the start of a new phase of growth. The price is now above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and if it continues to replicate 2021, then we expect this to be a Bullish Leg that will target the 1.786 Fibonacci extension. Our long-term Target now goes from $1135 to $1225. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYSE:LLYLong
by TradingShot
Halftime Report: LLY Up From Here? Hold for better PriceWe've been watching LLY after Open this morning allowed it to bounce up to $783.63. It has since settled on the 50% Retracement on the 5 Minute, which we were looking for it to break down back to at least the $765-$766 Price Range, looking to get in around $765.45specifically. With a Price Target $775 (Short-Term Trade Target) on the rebound and retest. We're looking at a stop around $761.97 to be safe in case it comes down hard and surpasses our entry. On a longer-time frame, we're looking for potential a $780.65 - $785 retest. Stay tuned by connecting at the website in our signature! We deliver this and more financial tools to make life that much easier on You! - @MyMIWallet #MyMIWallet
NYSE:LLYLong
by MyMIWallet
LLY 1H Swing Long Aggressive Trend TradeAggressive Trend Trade - short impulse + volumed TE / T1 + support level + biggest volume Sp + weak test + first bullish bar close entry Calculated affordable stop limit 1 to 2 R/R take profit Daily Context "+ long impulse + 1/2 correction - expanding T2 + support level + volumed manipulation" Monthly Context "+ long impulse + 1/2 correction + T2 level + support level - biggest volume manipulation" Yearly Context "+ long impulse - neutral zone"
NYSE:LLYLong
by MishaSuvorov
Why Buy LLY?A textbook spike trade... that's why! Every morning the stock market open gives us opening volatility spikes on the first 30 minute bar. Most are noise but when that rare one comes along that fits my rules AND has multiple matching confluences... it's time to "Strike at the Spike!" This setup has going for it: At a 50% Retracement of the recent trend (from November 18 - December 4) At the top of a Gap Level At the Volume Profile Point-of-Control for the last year of price action (see below) With a Spike that my indicator shows >80% ATR Clearance I consider the baseline for a trade; this one is 150% so it definitely fits the rules. I would take a spike if there were only 2 of those matching levels above. Targeting the local high for the first take profit at 834. Here is the Daily chart for just how key this level is: Full disclosure: NYSE:LLY is and has been one of my biggest holdings; having owned the stock for over a decade.
NYSE:LLYLong
by norok
Can Pharma Innovation Rewrite Healthcare's Future?In the rapidly evolving landscape of medical technology, Eli Lilly emerges as a beacon of transformative potential, challenging conventional boundaries of pharmaceutical innovation. With a strategic masterstroke, the company has positioned itself at the forefront of medical breakthroughs, particularly in the revolutionary realm of weight loss and diabetes treatments. The remarkable Zepbound medication stands as a testament to this vision, demonstrating unprecedented efficacy by enabling patients to lose an average of 20.2% body weight - a figure that not only surpasses competitors but also represents a paradigm shift in medical intervention. The company's financial architecture is equally compelling, reflecting a meticulously crafted approach to growth and shareholder value. With a staggering market capitalization of $722 billion, a 27.4% revenue growth, and an impressive 80.9% gross profit margin, Eli Lilly transcends the traditional pharmaceutical business model. Its recent $15 billion share buyback program and consistent 54-year dividend payment history underscore a strategic philosophy that balances aggressive innovation with prudent financial management, creating a blueprint for sustainable corporate success. Beyond financial metrics and breakthrough medications, Eli Lilly represents something more profound: a vision of healthcare's future where technology, research, and human potential converge. The company's $3 billion manufacturing expansion, commitment to oncology research with drugs like Jaypirca, and continuous investment in cutting-edge medical solutions paint a picture of an organization that sees beyond immediate profit - an entity committed to reshaping human health through relentless innovation and scientific excellence. In an era of unprecedented medical challenges, Eli Lilly stands not just as a pharmaceutical company, but as a harbinger of hope, demonstrating how visionary thinking can transform global health landscapes.
NYSE:LLYLong
by MorMedia
ELI LILLY has at least +50% upside from here.Eli Lilly (LLY) has been trading within a 5-year Channel Up and last week closed below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since the week of March 06 2023. Despite the bearish pressure of this Bearish Leg since July 15 2024, that last 1W MA50 closing was the previous Higher Low at the bottom of the Channel Up. The 1W RSI is on a similar level (just below 40.00) with all previous 4 major bottoms and the common characteristic of all was that the stock broke below the 1W MA50 but managed to keep clear and hold the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), practically the most important Support level of the market. If you want a confirmed buy entry, you might want to wait for yet another Bullish Cross on the 1W MACD (as it happened on all previous bottoms), otherwise this buy opportunity is good to go for at least +58% from the bottom (minimum rise among those 4 Bullish Legs). Our Target is $1135. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYSE:LLYLong
by TradingShot
5
ELI LILLY: This consolidation is a buy opportunity.Eli Lilly is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 52.880, MACD = 1.910, ADX = 25.797) as well as on 1W as for the past 7 weeks it has turned sideways. This consolidation is taking place half-way through the new bullish wave of the Channel Up that started in early 2023. As you see it is supported by the 1W MA50 and every bullish wave in the beginning was almost at +50% but the latest one was +35%. Consequently we expect a minimum of +46.22% from the bottom and that's what we're aiming for (TP = 1,095). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
NYSE:LLYLong
by InvestingScope
ELI LILLY Always a solid buy below its 1D MA50.Eli Lilly (LLY) broke on Friday below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since August 09. As the stock trades within a long-term Channel Up since the March 01 2023 bottom, every time the price was below the 1D MA50, it didn't stay for long, thus providing the most effective buy entry. Even though it could dip some more as with July's decline (only such case though out of 6 corrections), as long as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) holds, we expect the Channel Up to be extended. The initial Higher Highs were closer to the 1.5 Fibonacci Channel extension, the last one however was exactly on the 1.0 Fib. As a result, we will take a more conservative Target on that trend-line, thus turning bullish now and aiming at $1100 by the end of the year. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYSE:LLYLong
by TradingShot
Eli Lilly's Zepbound: A Game-Changer for Obesity Treatment?In a groundbreaking move that could redefine the landscape of obesity treatment, Eli Lilly has slashed the price of its weight loss drug, Zepbound, by half. But is this simply a strategic business decision, or is it a beacon of hope for millions struggling with obesity? Join us as we delve into the implications of this bold move and explore the potential impact on the future of weight management. Imagine a world where obesity is no longer a daunting, insurmountable challenge. A world where effective, affordable treatments are accessible to all who need them. Eli Lilly's recent announcement of a significant price reduction for Zepbound brings us closer to that reality. By making this groundbreaking decision, Eli Lilly has not only demonstrated its commitment to patient access but has also sent a powerful message to the broader healthcare industry. This move has the potential to disrupt the status quo, challenging the outdated policies and practices that have hindered progress in obesity treatment. As we explore the implications of Eli Lilly's decision, we must consider the broader context of the obesity epidemic. For decades, obesity has been stigmatized and overlooked as a serious medical condition. Many individuals struggling with weight loss have faced limited treatment options and significant financial burdens. Eli Lilly's move to lower the price of Zepbound could be a game-changer in this regard. By making the drug more affordable, the company is empowering patients to take control of their health and pursue a healthier lifestyle. This could lead to a significant increase in the number of people seeking treatment for obesity, ultimately improving public health outcomes. However, it is important to note that this is just one step in a larger journey. While Eli Lilly's decision is undoubtedly a positive development, more needs to be done to address the systemic issues that contribute to the obesity epidemic. Policymakers, healthcare providers, and communities must work together to create a supportive environment that promotes healthy eating, physical activity, and access to affordable, effective treatments. In conclusion, Eli Lilly's announcement of a price reduction for Zepbound represents a significant milestone in the fight against obesity. By making this drug more accessible, the company is not only helping individuals achieve their weight loss goals but also challenging the broader healthcare system to prioritize obesity treatment.
NYSE:LLYLong
by MorMedia
How To Pick Top Pharma Stocks like a ProAnalyzing the pharmaceutical industry, whose products play a key role in improving the quality of life of people around the world, is quite challenging sometimes also it requires deep knowledge and a careful approach, as I believe that investors should consider many factors, starting with evaluating the efficacy of the analyzed company's medications, including in relation to its competitors and the "gold standards," and ending with an analysis of its financial indicators In this article you will learn how to pick Top Pharma stocks like a pro trader and which factors you should consider, so buckle up 1/ Recognizing the risks At the very beginning, an investor you must recognize that the pharmaceutical industry is highly competitive, where a company's investment attractiveness depends not only on the rate of expansion of its portfolio of product candidates, revenue growth, margins, the amount of total debt and cash on the balance sheet but is also heavily influenced by the expiration of patents on medications and vaccines. Moreover, in recent months, the healthcare sector has increasingly felt the impact of the upcoming 2024 US presidential elections, as some politicians are aiming to further tighten regulation of drug prices despite the existing Inflation Reduction Act. 2/ Leveraging data to your advantage The second step use data wisely, you should check all kinda data including stock screener, transcripts of earnings calls, financial results for the last quarters, analyst expectations, options data... The goal is to filter companies in poor financial condition, as well as those that trade at a significant premium to the sector and/or competitors I would also like to point out that in the current market environment, with Fed interest rates remaining at multi year highs, I do not recommend investing in companies with market caps below $500 million, as they typically have limited cash reserves and weaker institutional backing Also, I'd recommend investors read 10-Ks and 10-Qs, especially the section related to debt and sources of financing of the company's operations, to reduce the likelihood of an "unexpected" drop in the share price. A striking example is Invitae Corporation aka NVTAQ which declared bankruptcy in mid February 2024! Was there a prerequisite for this? The answer is yes since the company continued to generate negative cash flow and also had convertible senior notes maturing in 2028. Convertible notes can involve significant financial risks if the company cannot effectively use the cash to grow the business and break even. In this case, management will not be able to pay off the bonds with cash reserves and will have to resort to significant dilution of investors. In my opinion, Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc. NASDAQ:PACB may face this problem because it has convertible senior notes maturing in 2028 and 2030. Factors that concern me include the company's declining revenue and total cash and short-term investments in recent quarters, while its operating expenses remain extremely high at around $80 million per quarter. Let's return to the second step in my approach to selecting the most promising assets in the healthcare sector. When selecting companies with market caps between $4 billion and $40 billion, I use more parameters since most of them already have FDA approved drugs and/or vaccines. As a result, it is also necessary to consider the rate of growth of operating income, net debt/EBITDA ratio, and how management copes with increased marketing and production costs. Finally, let's move on to the last basket, which contains pharmaceutical companies with market capitalizations exceeding $40 billion. I think, this group is best suited for more conservative investors looking for assets offering attractive dividend yields and growing net income, supported by a rich portfolio of FDA approved and experimental drugs. So, from Big Pharma, I like Pfizer Inc NYSE:PFE , AbbVie Inc NYSE:ABBV , Merck & Co NYSE:MRK and AstraZeneca PLC NASDAQ:AZN . I also want to include Novartis AG NYSE:NVS and Roche Holding AG OTC:RHHBY in this group sometimes investors need to make exceptions, namely if one larger company buys out a smaller player and/or when a major partnership agreement is concluded, as was the case between Merck and Daiichi Sankyo Company, Limited OTC:DSKYF in 2023. Also, in the event of a major acquisition or merger, the company's debt may temporarily increase sharply. If its management has previously implemented effective R&D and financial policies, the "net debt/EBITDA ratio" A remarkable example of a company falling into the "value trap" is Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited NYSE:TAK , which overpaid for Shire. This deal did not significantly strengthen or rejuvenate the Japanese company's portfolio of drugs. As a result, it had to sell off billions of dollars in assets to pay off its debt partially. However, despite all the efforts of Takeda's management, its net debt/EBITDA ratio, although it fell below 5x, remains high, namely about 4.7x at the end of March 2024. 3/ Identifying promising therapeutic areas In general, the more prevalent a disease is, the larger the total addressable market for a drug and, as a result, the higher the chances that it will become a commercially successful product. Global spending on cancer medications will reach $377 billion by 2027, followed by immunology, and diabetes will come in third with an estimated spending of about $169 billion What challenges arise when choosing pharmaceutical companies? you should also keep in mind that the larger the market, the higher the competition between medicines, as companies strive to grab as big a piece of the pie as possible. As a result, for drug sales to take off, they need to have significant competitive advantages over the "gold standard." These competitive advantages may include greater efficacy in treating a particular disease, less frequent administration, a more favorable safety profile, and a more convenient route of administration. So, in recent years, competition in the global spinal muscular atrophy treatment market has intensified. Spinal muscular atrophy is a genetic condition. Currently, three drugs have been approved to combat the disorder, including Biogen Inc.'s (BIIB) Spinraza, Roche/PTC Therapeutics, Inc.'s (PTCT) Evrysdi, and Novartis AG's (NVS) gene therapy Zolgensma. All three products have similar efficacy, but Evrysdi has a more favorable safety profile and is the more convenient route of administration, namely the oral route, which is reflected in its sales growth rate from year to year. The second pitfall is the company's pipeline of experimental drugs. I believe that financial market participants opening an investor presentation that presents a company's pipeline, especially if its market cap is below $5 billion, should also pay close attention to what stage of clinical trial activity its experimental drugs are in. if a pharmaceutical company has most of its product candidates in the early stages of development, this represents a significant risk because, in this case, institutional and retail investors are often overly optimistic about the prospects for the drugs' mechanisms of action and/or clinical data obtained in a small group of patients. Simultaneously, as is often the case, the higher the optimism, the less favorable the risk/reward profile. In most cases, the larger and more diverse the patient population, the weaker the efficacy of a drug relative to what was seen in Phase 1/2 clinical trials. This ultimately leads to a downward valuation of its likelihood of approval and casts doubt on its ability to take significant market share from approved medications. This may subsequently reduce the company's investment attractiveness, making it more difficult to attract financing for its operating activities. As a result, I recommend excluding any company that, instead of focusing its financial resources on the most promising product candidates, conducts multiple early-stage clinical trials to evaluate the efficacy of its experimental drugs. In my experience, the most successful pharmaceutical companies focus their efforts on bringing up to three product candidates to market and then reinvesting the revenue from their commercialization into developing the rest of the pipeline. The table below highlights the following parameters that I use to screen out the least promising companies. A third factor that investors, especially those new to the investment world, should consider is that large pharmaceutical companies are leaders in certain therapeutic areas, with a rich portfolio of patents covering various mechanisms of action and delivery methods of drugs, making it more difficult and more prolonged for smaller players to find product candidates that could potentially have the competitive advantages. So, Novo Nordisk A/S NYSE:NVO and Eli Lilly and Company NYSE:LLY have long been leaders in the global diabetes and weight loss drugs markets, and only very recently, they may be joined by Amgen Inc. NASDAQ:AMGN , Roche Holding, and several other companies 4/ Assessing a company's drug portfolio in comparison to competitors Evaluating the effectiveness, safety profile, and mechanism of action of a medication, as well as comparing clinical data with its competitors, takes a lot of time and effort. I provided examples of drugs and the most promising mechanisms of action in the obesity treatment market. Their manufacturers are Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Roche Holding, Viking Therapeutics, Inc, Amgen, Pfizer, Altimmune, Inc, OPKO Health, Inc, Boehringer Ingelheim, and Zealand Pharma A/S 5/ When market exclusivity for a company's key medications ends Every financial market participant who is considering investing in pharmaceutical companies should consider the expiration time of key patents of medicines. Marketing exclusivity represents protection against the entry of a generic version and/or biosimilar of a branded drug into the market, thereby allowing the company to recoup the resources spent on its development and, in the event of its commercial success, also reinvest the money received to accelerate the development of the remaining product candidates. Where can you find information about patent expiration dates? All the necessary information is either in 20-Fs/10-Ks or on the FDA website, namely in the "Orange Book" section. let's take Eli Lilly as an example. Open the latest 10-K. Then, the CTRL + F combination opens the ability to find specific words in the document. I usually enter "Expiry Date" or "compound patent" to find the patent section.nvestors can also find information about patents on the FDA website. As an example, I enter "Mounjaro" in the top line, and a list of patents opens that protect Eli Lilly's blockbuster from the introduction of its generic versions onto the market.hen, clicking on "Appl. No." will open information about the submission date of the patent and when it will expire. 6/ Evaluating the impact of insider share transactions The next step in selecting the most interesting assets in the healthcare sector is to analyze Form-4s. The CEO, CFO, and other key members of the company's management buy or sell shares from time to time.I am only interested in analyzing purchases since, most often, sales by management are option exercises carried out to pay taxes. When management starts making large outright purchases of a company's shares, it can signal that it believes in its long-term growth potential.if more than two top managers buy a large block of shares within two weeks of each other, it significantly increases the likelihood of the company's stock price rising in the next two months from the moment of their transactions But as with everything, there are exceptions, such as in the case of OPKO Health, which is developing a long-acting oxyntomodulin analog for the treatment of obesity together with LeaderMed Group.Over the past 12 months, OPKO's management, especially CEO Phillip Frost, has purchased over 12 million shares. However, despite this, its stock price has fallen by 27% over the same period. I believe that the key reasons for the divergence between these two facts are investors' lack of confidence in Phillip Frost's ability to make the company profitable again, as well as its low cash reserves. Therefore, companies like OPKO Health have already been eliminated at the second step of selection using Seeking Alpha's screener. 7/ CEO Performance in Business Development The CEO plays a crucial role in the success of a pharmaceutical company since the pharmaceutical industry is highly dynamic, and the competition between Big Pharma is especially high, I advise readers to pay attention to the track record of the CEO, especially how he copes with force majeure situations, as well as how effective the R&D policy is carried out under his leadership. 8/ Identifying Entry and Exit Points for Long-Term Investments The eighth step is in addition to the information that was obtained in the previous steps, as well as the analysis of financial risks and various financial metrics of the company, including its net debt, maturity dates of bonds, historical revenue growth rates, EBIT, gross margin, I build a DCF model with the ultimate goal of determining the price target. it is necessary to conduct a technical analysis of them, as well as the main ETFs that include them. In my opinion, the key ETFs are the SPDR® S&P Biotech ETF AMEX:XBI , Fidelity Blue Chip Growth ETF AMEX:FBCG , iShares Biotechnology ETF NASDAQ:IBB , and VanEck Pharmaceutical ETF $PPH. The purpose of technical analysis is to determine the stop-loss level and entry points at which the risk/reward profile is most favorable. taking profit is not that easy cuz you must master your emotions and greed which damn hard 9/ Creating a Watchlist Based on Risk/Reward Ratio The purpose of which is to create a watchlist of the companies I have selected based on the previous steps. I make several lists of companies based on their market caps and also rank them according to risk/reward profile, that is, in the first place is the stock that I think has minimal risks and at the same time can bring the greatest potential profit. I also advise creating small notes on each company, which can include information about risks, support/resistance zones, dates of publication of clinical data, and any thoughts you have that will make your decision more conscious when opening a position “What’s your secret sauce for choosing pharma stocks?”
NYSE:NVOEducation
by moonypto
ELI LILLY Recovered all losses from its High! What's next?Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) posted a miraculous bullish reversal in the past 2 weeks, recovering yesterday all of the losses of the brutal correction since its July 15 All Time High. Having rebounded on its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) while the 1D RSI touched the 30.00 oversold barrier for the first time since February 28 2023, we can claim that LLY's Channel Up now sets eyes for its next Higher High. This pattern is best illustrated with the use of the Fibonacci Channel levels. After initially holding the 1.0 Fib as Resistance, the 'ceiling' is now the 1.5 Fib extension, basically has been since September 12 2023. The interesting parameter of this pattern is that every approximately +35.00 to +40.00% rise, the price pulls back or turns sideways (red arc pattern) until it eventually hits the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). As the stock completes a +35% rise from the bottom, a little above the 1000 mark, we expect it to turn sideways at best. The target after that is $1200, exactly on the 1.0 Fibonacci level, which is still a modest one, considering that the ceiling is now the 1.5 Fib extension, as discussed above. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYSE:LLYLong
by TradingShot