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European Gas March 2023: Bullish and Bearish FactorsThe idea has two parts: fundamental and technical analysis . The latter is based on the weekly chart. On the fundamental side , several essential and minor factors affect and could affect March 2023 price change. Let's divide them into three groups. Bullish : Russian shutdown of gas supply to Europe Russia has cut its European flows for the last months so that a total shutdown would be possible. Russian gas remains crucial for the European economy despite the American armada of LNG ships. Freeport LNG plant Restart Shift The company plans to restore the plant in January 2023. A possible postponement would support TTF prices in the winter season. Limitations of US Gas Exports Last winter, some US Senate members suggested limiting or prohibiting US LNG export. They estimated that the change would increase US gas supply for the internal US market, especially for New England, which is dependent on the import of gas from the gas-production states getting gas via pipelines and LNG. They said the prohibition would reduce high gas prices for customers and industry. In July, LNG winter 2023 prices for New England touched a record high of $40/MMBtu, while Henry Hub traded at about $8.6/MMBtu. I suppose that senators would return to the idea, especially since the US elections are in November. Although the risk is low, its realization could dramatically affect the TTF price assessment. Analysts and think tanks have considered possible Russian gas cuts but haven't accessed a potential US gas supply reduction. French Nuclear Plants Outages Since the end of 2021, the French nuclear industry has been weak with planned and unplanned maintenance. As a result, nuclear output has lost more than 40% YoY of its output. While serious issues are unlikely to arise, new minor obstacles could buoy TTF prices. Dry Summer The continuation of the European 2022 dry summer led to abbreviated hydropower production. On the back of hydropower reduction, natural gas-power generation increases its output and gas consumption, driving subdued gas injection into storage facilities. Subdued gas injection in summer means less gas for winter, creating a possible gas deficit. Bearish: Slowing European Economy and Demand Destruction High inflation induced by the monetary policy of 2020-2021 provokes a decline in real incomes and makes some industrial production unprofitable or near break-even. These debilitate aggregate demand, particularly industrial output of fertilizers, ceramics, and other chemicals. Industries that are heavily reliant on gas are cutting their gas consumption today. Lasting historically high gas prices would promote a decrease in gas utilization. The demand destruction could happen among all consumers: power, industrial and individual. A new recession is near. ECB monetary policy with a growing rate also adds problems to the economy. The rate is still tiny, but debt bubbles are sensitive to interest rate change. The bust of bubbles would drop economic growth and curtail gas demand pushing TTF prices down. Slowing world economy The world economy suffers from high prices losing economic growth momentum. A move into a recession would trigger a decline in gas consumption lowering LNG gas prices and letting LNG producers increase LNG sendout to Europe. Voluntary Demand Reductions of 15% and Gas Rationing Energy ministers of Europe adopted plans to voluntarily cut gas demand by 15% from August until March 31, 2022. In case of emergency, like near zero Russian flows, the voluntary reduction changes to mandatory. i.e., gas rationing. The actions could divert rising prices. Covid Lockdowns in Europe Europe has prepared different measures to withstand possible gas issues in winter. Besides voluntary reduction or rationing Europe could return to the lockdowns of 2020, when gas consumption dramatically went down because industrial production of goods collapsed. Since June 2022, the media has published news about a new variant of Covid. Countries could impose Covid-related limitations this fall. Unstable gas consumption and gas shortage would drive for a Covid or climate lockdown. A good measure to cut gas demand and destroy the economy. Covid Lockdowns in China Despite possible lockdowns of 2022-2023 in Europe, lockdowns in China happened in the last months and could be imposed again. An effect of prohibitions has hit the Chinese economy and cut gas consumption resulting in freeing up the supply for other consumers, i.e., Europe. New Chinese lockdowns would mean more gas for Europe. Joker : The joker that could be a bullish or bearish driver is the weather. They can't predict winter weather today. Lasting temperatures above season norms in winter could be a lifesaver for Europe, dropping gas consumption and its prices. Cold spells and lingering temperatures under the winter season average would lift prices significantly. Near-average temperatures would put the significance of the factor on hold. While in summer, it is vice versa. Temperatures above the norms slow gas storage injection and slightly increase a lack of gas risk in the winter season. On the technical side , there are no resistance levels cause the contract is traded near its record high. Only psychological levels like €200/MWh , €300/MWh , and higher. On the bulls' side, there are many support levels. For those practicing buy a bounce trading , essential levels are €125/MWh , €100/MWh , and €86/MWh . The last one developed in the December 2021-April 2022 period. I estimate that Gazprom made a significant contribution to its existence. Gazprom's export price to Europe, which was pegged to a fusion of lagged prices of fossil fuels, including TTF, was near to €86/MWh . So when the market price rose significantly above the level, market participants cut their demand because Gazprom sold cheaper. When the price tried to break through €86/MWh and went down, Gazprom trimmed its flows to Europe. All in all, this helped the company to control its revenues on the same level. Since then, it has not been the case because Gazprom has changed its approach. Finally, I am afraid to forecast the price on the expiration date. I suppose the price would remain volatile, and we could see spikes above €200/MWh in the winter season. Thank you for your reading, and have profitable trading! Comment your thoughts!
T
by Nikita_Kalinin
Oil Attempts a ReboundOil bottomed out at 81.30, as expected. Oil prices are generally trending downward off recession fears and china coronavirus lock downs . We are seeing a small pivot off lower levels and an attempt to regain 85.55, which should provide strong resistance as it was a low tested several times earlier last week. We are starting to see strong resistance as we approach this level. If we break through we could make a run for the $90's. If we retrace, then $81.30 should provide support again.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by quantguy
IT40:The real excuse for more strict restrictions in ItalyHi everyone! As showed in my previous analysis on Dow Jones Industrial index(US30),also on the Italian major index we can see shaping a strong reversal trend patter(Head&Shoulder) on monthly timeframe. Also,we can notice that the bull trend started last year in April,due to huge injections of liquidity made by ECB given by a so called tool named Quantitative Easing,it's running out of steam... Technically we could say that,but in reality the end of this run is the result given by the fact that ECB will finish soon to inject money in the market(QE),and big speculators knowing so are starting to take off their profits. With the actual pattern given by market structure I can see the value of the Italian index dropping to next strong support level,which is around 22000/22500 €. Please feel free to share the idea or add a comment below :) Hot winter is coming........
IShort
by CryptoAndy85
2
Dining out soon?China, one of the largest consumer of soybean oil, has tapered its demand for the edible oil due to COVID-related control measures over the past few months. With new cases falling and lockdown for Shanghai expected to be lifted soon, we see positive demand drivers on the horizon for soybean oil. Restaurants are among the largest consumers of the oil. As consumers resume their normal consumption patterns and dining out becomes the norm again, it’s easy to see the impact on demand. Looking at the charts, we see a falling wedge pattern since April (where prices make lower highs and lower lows) which generally indicates an upside breakout could be near. On a longer timeframe, we are close to the 6-month uptrend line, where prices have bounced off in the past. Additionally the $78 resistance level provides us with further confidence that prices are likely to remain supported at the current levels before making a jump higher. As demand from the world’s largest consumer of soybean oil revives and technical levels remain intact, we expect more upside from here! Staggered entry at 79.25 and 78.25 with stops below 77.25 and targets at 84 and 87.60. Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
CBOT:ZL1!Long
by inspirante
1
GBPUSD by UK COVID TimelineThis is the timeline of major COVID related events in the UK and the corresponding chart for GBPUSD. The lower chart is of moving averages of US and UK new COVID cases. Since the start of COVID and an initial big drop, GBPUSD has seen strength after strength, with a number of significant bottoms coinciding with major events in the UK political landscape. Put another way, it would appear that several of the government reactions to COVID in the form of Lockdowns and social restrictions have acted as catalysts for significant moves in the Pound. This can also be seen on the following chart, which is a combination of GBPUSD, GBPCAD AND GBPAUD (these major pairs chosen as they all trade between 1.3-2, giving a roughly similar weighting). The 1st National Lockdown, introduction of Local Lockdowns and introduction of Hospitality Curfews all created almost perfect short term bottoms for GBP. We can also see that since the government restrictions have eased - and the subsequent breakout of Omicron variant with little government response - GBP has seen a steady decline. With new COVID cases reaching back to back all time highs in the UK the general sentiment is that a lockdown, "circuit breaker" or tier system being reintroduced is inevitable. If history tells is anything to go by this is likely to be introduced after Christmas as politicians fear the public backlash if they were to ruin Christmas for families. Based on this history, if we are to see new strict measures introduced after Christmas, one could potentially view that as a signal to go long GBPUSD or other GBP pair, as the pound has generally responded positively to the introduction of new measures.
Long
by HayeTrading
BTC/USD Potential inverse Head and ShouldersWe could be seeing an inverse head and shoulders forming on BTC/USD Low Time Frames. It looks as though the MA50 is beginning to curl upwards headed toward the MA100. Crossing that then headed for the LTF golden cross as well would give more indication that we are headed for more bullish continuation. Firstly however, we need to keep a close eye on ~$55,900... deviation below that is fine but a clear 1D close below and we should take our bull goggles off until the lockdown rumors settle down or play out. Until then, an iH&S target would put us at ~$65,900
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Hrempe
2
US500 S&P500 Bull market Hello, can you help me? I started to worry about the world of trading in January 2020 and shortly after when the pandemic started and we were confined it was a very useful and interesting hobby. Since the pandemic began and with the confinement, I took courses on the stock market, I read, searched, informed, understood and learned a lot. MANY have earned with platforms like Robinhood ... big amounts of money and that's great but watch out, don't underestimate financial intelligence. From May 2020 until today I have published 65 investment ideas and before this shitty year is over I will reach 100 Thank you for your time share and support L.E.D SPAIN 29/12/2020
U
by wallstreetstocks
GBPAUD: Where From Here?Expecting GA to drop before making a U-turn to the upside and potentially rally up to 1.8400 in the process. If I do get my entry at 1.7500 I'll be looking at collecting 900 pips if everything goes according to plan. There's a lot of fundamentals surrounding the Pound at the moment as there were news that surfaced on the weekend about Mutant Coronavirus Strain, Brexit No-Deal and London going back to full lockdown, I think it's fair to say not everything will g smoothly in terms of my analysis after all this is Trading there are never guarantees. Fortunately should things go south there is a way out as I make sure risk management comes first before anything else. My advice to anyone who's looking to make it here in this business is for them to make sure they do apply risk management in their trades at all times. Btw an idea I posted Friday on GBPUSD is currently going according to plan Check it out. If you've got any questions comment below.
by DYongs
Long #UAA into 17.35 on confirmationCurrently trading between a couple past support lines. Currently riding on a new support after bouncing off the the lighter trend into the top resistance line. Looking for a break above the diagonal weve been trading down since last week for confirmation. Id expect resistance once at the 17.35 area, before a squeeze at the second retest. If we trail below our current trand and out of the older trading zone in orange, i would look to the lighter trend line to hold us up before stopping out below it if we lose support at 15.48 Id be a buyer with support above 13.94 with confirmation that the lowermost support line holds up. If that happens, id watch 15.48 region as we climb for a squeeze up somewhere in my stop out region
NYSE:UAALong
by TradingNomadic
#OSTK trade idea, looking for reversal patternLooking for support on the longer term lower trend line above 61.31 Id look at the trend line above it for a new resistance area until a possible squeeze above 71.33 A tight stop would be 59.11 and lower stops would be 55.12 or 50.85 depending on your time frame. Watch for volume to pick up with a RSI on the up. I dont expect this to be a quick play and i would definetely scale in because we could see more downside. The antagonist i would expect to perhaps trigger a continuation of that original trend would be heavy volume at the squeeze.
OLong
by TradingNomadic