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Logikfx

GBPZAR Fundamental LONGMacro Currency Strength GBP = 21(+7) ZAR = -24 (-24) COT Report Lev Funds GBP = Long (slightly dec) ZAR = NA GDP Differentials = -1.2% (2022 forecast) IR % Differentials = -3.4% Weekly Price Trend = Long Overall, based on fundamental strength, price trend, and COT a Long on GBPZAR looks favourable. BUT as interest rates, and GDP growth rates showing South Africa coming out on top, the conviction on this long is lower, and therefore decrease risk on this position. Political Theme Wise: The UK is slowly coming out of lockdown, with business opening --> but further public injections questions the longevity of pound strength. Continued COVID related corruption is coming out of the cracks in South Africa, and if this continues, there could be some short term uncertainty of holding ZAR over this period
Long
by marcusraiyat
EURJPY LONGEurope is looking at generating a strong vaccine roll out which will help the EU recover faster than expected. The most interesting figures from European Commission show a projected growth of 3.8% moving into 2021 and 2022. This bullish European sentiment is a great sign for a potential bullish move in the EURJPY exchange rate. Below is a full summary of the forex fundamental, technical and sentiment analysis to give you some free insights into the markets. Logikfx Macro Currency Strength = Long GDP Diff = Short IR Diff = Long COTA = Long
Long
by marcusraiyat
1
GBPUSD SHORT (Feb, 2021) LARGE Weekly SELL ZONEMacro Currency Strength = Short Bias GBP = -7 USD = 28 Net GDP Growth Diff = Short Bias -2.5% (2022 forecast from IMF) GBPUSD vs WTI = Long Bias 78% positive correlation, WTI is rising as of recent, therefore long bias GBPUSD vs FORD = Long Bias 68% positive correlation, Ford is longing, therefore long bias Interest Rate Differential = Short Bias GBP vs USD IR% = -0.15% Market Conditions = Short NHFOI (Net Hedge Fund Open Interest) Differential is dropping on GBP vs USD Technicals = Short In a large weekly sell zone "One of the key things about 2021 in the UK is that there's a huge vaccine programme being rolled out. This is to help tackle the on-going battle with the virus and at the same time get the economy in a a normal place again. It was forecast by the BoE that the first Q1 would be a contraction of 4% in the UK but as vaccines are rolled out, infections decrease and people start spending during spring we're expecting a bounce back in the economy. On top of this one of the key indicators was the Bank's Monetary policy committee (MPC) kept interest rates in the UK at 0.1%. However, at the same time they've asked High Street Banks (Commercial banks) to be ready for negative interest rates... Negative Interest Rates?! BuT WHaT aBOuT mY SAVInGs... Well ladies and gentlemen... that's why we all need to start learning about ways of investing our money. We're no longer in an interest rate environment with risk-free high returns on your savings, the negative interest rates will force consumers to spend, save less and invest more. Lower interest rates also mean... a potentially lower currency value." - Logikfx blog
Short
by marcusraiyat
1
EURCHF Long-term LONGEUR = strengthening CHF = weakening GDP diff = short Exports Analysis = Long IR% Diff = long Stock Index = Long EUR OI Hedge Funds = Long CHF OI Hedge Funds = Long TA = Long Majority = Long The euro area has had an interesting start to 2021. The latest GDP figures show the big four European economies beat expectations in terms of growth. The main areas include Germany growing in the 4th quarter followed by Spain but France taking a slight dip in growth but still beating expected losses. Overall, the data is suggesting the businesses in the euro area have found a way to "cope with restrictions". The ECB also has further mentioned that they will support where needed but there's no need to cut interest rates further.
Long
by marcusraiyat
2
NZDUSD 1:3 Risk Reward + Short Coming SoonLogicStrategy Fundamentals 24/05 NZD Negative LogicStrategy Flip - This is where the Logikfx scores shift from net positive to a net negative on NZD 28/06 USD Positive LogicStrategy Flip - Logikfx scores shift from net negative to net positive on USD Insider Information Hedge Funds Nets Long USD since 2018 24/06 NZD Negative COTA Flip - Hedge Funds positions shifted from a net long bias to a net short bias on NZD Technical Analysis 21/07 Price Enters Long Term Sell Zone, RSI Daily Divergences. Waiting for Retrace to Enter.
Short
by marcusraiyat
CADCHF 1:2 Risk Reward (Potential Setup)Fundamental LogicStrategy Scores: - Strong signs for CAD +22 - Weaker signs for CHF -27 CAD Fundamentals: - Retail sales 1.1% increase by 0.1% - Core retail sales increased by 1% massive jump for consumer consumption towards GDP - Manufacturing sales 2.1% increased from -0.2%, this is a big component for exporters, more sales meaning higher consumption domestically but also abroad for domestic goods. - Employment numbers up in Canada showing more people being employed leading to higher consumption, more spending, more investing and more demand for the currency. - 9th may Exports increased by 1.05 billion, exceeding expectations of by 1 billion. - Massive increase in the construction industry 235.5k housing starts leading to healthy lending from the banks, more employment from construction, more demand for imports for materials and more producer/manufacturing sales. Overall healthy signs for the Canadian Dollar, undervalued currently as of my point of view. CHF Fundamentals: - Trade balance significantly lower than last month, dropping to 2.294Billion from 3.2Billion - GDP was above expectations however already priced in no market volatility from the release. - PPI had no growth sitting at 0% decreasing by 0.3% suggesting price of goods are not changing leading to no inflation and no changes to interest rates. - Consumer confidence dropping to -6 from -4 showing the domestic consumers are not very certain of the future currently, leading to reduced consumption in the economy ands spending overall. - Leading to Retail sales figures of -0.7% a very large drop in sales in the country Overall, a weak month of data for the CHF all leading to less demand for the CHF.
Long
by Eren_Jaeger_Trader
GBPCHF Fundamental LONG Bias LogicStrategy Scores are showing favourable signs of a GBPCHF long. (LogicStrategy = 24) GBP Important Fundamental Considerations for a Long Bias - Public net borrowing was less than forecast, indicating cable has a stronger potential than expected - Consumer price index has seen a positive change than previously YoY - The property market is showing signs of health, with the average cost of properties rising by 40 basis points. (LogicStrategy = -27 )CHF Important Fundamentals - Unemployment levels, in comparison to last year, have shown no signs of improvement - meaning the productivity per person is restraining economic strength - Input prices of goods and services have shown a 40 basis point decrease. This is then past on to the consumers allowing them to purchase goods more cheaply, which may drive authorities, monetary and government to have an inflationary stance. If this occurs the CHF currency will show signs of weakening overall.
Long
by marcusraiyat
GBPUSD Fundamental LONG BIASThere has been a huge positive shift in the U.K economic readings on the LogicStrategy. I would advise to wait for candlestick confirmations and keep a keen eye on further political agenda. Fed has shown indication of inflationary policies, meaning a depreciation in the U.S dollar is a potential. The tariffs on China are signs of a deflationary outlook, so with the two contradicting outlooks between Trump and the U.S monetary statements, a logical judgement is difficult as of yet.
Long
by marcusraiyat
1
GBPCHF 1:5 Risk Reward LONG (Potential Setup)Fundamentals: LogicStrategy Quant scores shifting in favour of GBP, compared to the weak score provided for CHF. - This was following the recent decrease in unemployment in the UK down to 3.8% from 3.9%. - CHF PPI dropping significantly to 0% with a forecast of 0.2% - CHF retail sales dropped significantly this month, down to -0.7% - SVME PMI down for CHF to 48.5 with a forecast for 51 All signs showing the safe haven CHF is overvalued and requires a correction whereas GBP has started to gain strength amidst brexit negotiations being extended. Technicals: - Waiting for any long confirmation signals before considering an entry - still to early in terms of technicals - Would like to see 4HR higher highs, buying power candle stick confirmations etc..
Long
by Eren_Jaeger_Trader
7