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Longdxy

DXY Analysis and Trade Idea for 14-Feb-2023The DXY was in overall bullish run from past week and near to resistance and trend line. while today it opened below the last day closing price and is performing bearish in day trend. Market will test the above resistance and trend line to break it. and there is a chance it will break it today or later in this week. Today we are also expecting CPI will looks like gonna be positive and it will help dxy to break trend line. But if somehow it failed to break trend line and resistance it can go short for a day or tow and come back again to test it.(as you can see on graph) Long Possibility: 1. If price breaks 103.50 support level it will go Up. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Short possibility: 1. Price will test 103.19 level before going further short
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by xeshaan
EURUSD Sell OpportunityI expect price to make a final bullish push, while ultimately respecting the area of resistance. - On the monthly time frame price closed as a reversal candle stick, hinting that the previously bearish sentiment is reversing. -I am longterm bullish on EU but after the bullish push on the daily timeframe, I expect a sell off/retracement. - I am looking for price to form a bearish candle stick reversal pattern such as a double top or a bearish engulfing candle stick. -Once one of those are created, I will look to enter a sell with a TP area of 1.01, which is also acting as support, previously resistance.
Short
by NoCeilingsTrading
Bearish (SHORT) GBPUSD-DXY (US Dollar) is overall bullish, so I will be looking to buy/go long US pairs. -GU is in an overall downtrend and after some bearish pressure, expecting price to make a retracement. -Price formed a double top and broke below the neckline, ultimately creating a lower low. -I am expecting price to make a retracement and potentially stop hunt and test the 50.0-61.8 fib level, confirming the break of structure/testing the neckline of the double top. Please Like, Follow, Comment. What is your analysis?
Short
by NoCeilingsTrading
2
Bullish on DXY Im expecting the dollar to reach up towards the113.00 level. I'll watch for a retracement to the 108.800 level, but if that doesn't occur ill be looking for the dollar to shoot straight up towards that 113 level over the coming weeks. Watch how usdjpy reacts bullish as the dollar continues to be bullish. Once price hits that 113 level, there should be some retracements seeing as that was a 2001 prior low before the dollar began its plunge. it's been strengthening over the past 10 years, so as of now I'm not expecting it to do anything less than that. As always good luck traders and stay focused, follow the money!
TVC:DXYLong
by CollectCap
DXY Opportunity to buy the rectracement. Overall Bearish Bias!My overall bias is bearish. But here is a chance to go long. -Price met and respected the Supply zone/Resistance several times. -ultimately it formed a Triple Top (which is a bearish candlestick pattern). -Price then broke the neckline/BOS confirming price is now in a downtrend. -Price then found some support around the 94.75 area and appears to be making a double bottom on the 4hr time frame. -At this point price appear that it is ready retrace and test the neckline (former support level) which will now act as a form of resistance. -Also drawing the Fibonacci from the last top to where price now has found support and began to retrace, you will see that the neckline also aligns with the 50.0 fib level making a retracement to this area likely. Like, Comment, Follow for more. If you see something different or disagree, feel free to post your own analysis in the comments!
TVC:DXYLong
by NoCeilingsTrading
DXY/ USD: THE WEEK AHEAD - ITS ALL IN THE CHARTDXY: 1. Given the firming of USD STIR/ Fed funds following Yellens JH remarks and the markets hawkish reaction i still think there is another % or so of topside to be priced into USD topside. - Fed funds implying 36% probability of a Sept hike - the highest implied prob in 3 months - hence given cables 50pip appreciation i feel theres another 100pips here to be priced at least in the fron end (tuesday/weds) of next week. 2. The 1yr MA and then the 6m highs are the next targets higher at 96.5 and 97.5 - i feel the market can move to 96.5 based on the steepening of the fed funds curve (now implying 1 hike at close to 100% for 2016 vs 70/75% previoiusly) at the front of next week but then we will need a firm NFP beat to move to the next level higher at 97.5 or 6m highs. 3. Dollar index aside, gbpusd is my favourite expression of long USD aside from DXY - profit target of 1.300/5.
TVC:DXYLong
by QuantumLogicTrading
LONG DXY / USD: HAWKISH FOMC RATE STATEMENT - SEPTEMBER HIKE?The FOMC rate statement was largely in line with expectations and to the hawkish side - with a september hike hinted at. Much of which followed the rhetoric of FOMC members in the past few weeks (see previous posts) and data (disregarding the poor -4% durable goods mom print). Perhaps the most hawkish/ promising statement made for a Sept rate hike was the fact Fed George Preferred to Raise Rates to Range Between 0.50% and 0.75% - hinting hikes are now being considered. And "Fed Could Raise Rates Later This Year, Possibly As Early As September". Though on balance the Fed did repeat the dovish phrases "low/soft" several times when regarding various measures of inflation and business investment. This FOMC Statement holds in line with my medium run long $ view (hike based) - especially against Yen, GBP, EUR, AUD and NZD who are expected to ease and thus policy diverge. In terms of market pricing, the Fed Funds Future Option implied probabilities of a rate cut have continued their steepening this week - following the 3wk trend with Sept/Nov now pricing a 25.9/ 26.8% probability of a hike (up from 9% 2wks ago) - Dec now has a probability of 41.8% and is showing some stability here, with a 50bps hike implied at 9.9% and rising steadily. From this the implied probability of one rate hike in 2016 is at nearly 70% (Nov+Dec) - which imo is in line, or slightly below my qualitative probability of 90%. With the probability of 2 hikes at 12.5% which is about what i would expect. Nonetheless eyes are now focused on BOJ - which is expected to be a year changing meeting. September FOMC Rate Decision Statement - 0.50% unchanged: --Fed Leaves Policy Rate Unchanged, Says Near Term Economic Risks Have Diminished -Fed Offers More Upbeat Assessment of Labor, Economic Conditions -Fed Could Raise Rates Later This Year, Possibly As Early As September -Federal Reserve Keeps Fed Funds Range Unchanged at 0.25% to 0.50% -FOMC: Voted 9-1 For Fed Funds Rate Action -Fed Leaves Discount Rate Unchanged at 1.00% -Fed: Economic Activity Expanding At A 'Moderate' Rate -Fed: Labor Market Strengthened, Job Gains 'Strong' in June -Fed: Payrolls, Other Indicators Point to 'Some Increase' in Labor Utilization in Recent Months -Fed: Market-Based Inflation Compensation Measures 'Remain Low' -Fed: Survey-Based Inflation Expectations Measures 'Little Changed' -Fed: Inflation Expected to Remain Low in Near Term -Fed: Inflation Expected to Rise to 2% Over Medium Term As Transitory Effects Fade -Fed: Household Spending Has Been 'Growing Strongly' -Fed: Business Fixed Investment Has Been 'Soft' -Fed Continues to Expect 'Only Gradual Increases' In Fed Funds Rate -Kansas City Fed's George Dissents On Fed Policy Action -George Preferred to Raise Rates to Range Between 0.50% and 0.75%
TVC:DXYLong
by QuantumLogicTrading
4
DXY/ USD: FOMC - GS 65% 2016 RATE HIKE; RABO ONE 2016 RATE HIKEGoldman Sachs on July FOMC Decision : - The run of positive economic news in recent weeks has coincided with generally dovish comments from Fed offcials. Policymakers have indicated that they are not “behind the curve”, and have expressed increased uncertainty about the neutral level of interest rates. We would treat recent comments with caution, however, as we have not heard formal remarks from the Fed'€'s leadership. - Taken together, we see recent economic data and the public comments from Fed officials as consistent with only modest changes to the FOMC statement. We think the committee will upgrade its discussion of the labour market and measures of inflation expectations, but change little else. The period between the July and September meetings will include a number of important data releases as well as the annual Jackson Hole conference. Therefore, policymakers will have an incentive to keep their options open, and plenty of opportunities to guide market expectations, should they need to. - We continue to see a 25% chance that the committee will raise the funds rate in September and a 40% chance that it will do so in December - implying a roughly two thirds probability of at least one rate increase this year. RaboBank on July FOMC Decision: -While the Fed is in a wait-and-see mode to assess the threats to the global outlook and the strength of domestic momentum, recent US data have boosted the Fed;€™s confidence. We expect the Fed to squeeze in one rate hike before the end of the year, most likely in December.
TVC:DXYLong
by QuantumLogicTrading
LONG DXY/ USD VS GBP: HAWKISH FOMC LOCKHART SPEECH HIGHLIGHTSFOMC Lockhart was the 4th Fed this week to imo be relatively Hawkish with his words, most notably reinforcing with the others brexits near-term stability saying "Doesn't Expect 'Brexit' to Have Near Term Impact on Economy" and " So Far 'Brexit' Reaction Largely Orderly". Most interestingly though was Lockharts view on the FOMC's positioning for future rate increases, saying "Won't Rule Out Two Rate Rises This Year" - which is extremely hawkish given most expect 1 at the most.. Back up this sentiment by insisting that the Fed is "Fed Not Behind Curve, Has Time to Decide on Next Rate Move". Nonethless Lockhart did somewhat contradict his "rate expectations" by saying "Time for 'Cautious and Patient Approach' to Rate Policy" which surely shouldn't be the case if 2 hikes are coming - that would be on the aggressive side. All in all, Lockharts comments go hand in hand with my Bullish medium term USD/ DXY view (see previous articles) - I like the USD vs EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, NZD in the medium term so long DXY/ USD is favoured, even more so if 2 rate hikes were to be realised this year. At current levels short GBPUSD is my favourite expression FOMC RATE HIKE IMPLIED PROBABILITIES - On the likelihood of rate increases, in the past 24 hours, from the Federal Funds Rate implied probability curve we have seen rates/ probabilities firm after yesterdays "risk-break" recovery, with a 25bps September/ Nov hike steepening to 17.2% from 11.7%(Wed), and Dec setting new highs at 35.9% from 29.5% (Wed) - Dec also went on to double the probability of a 50bps hike to 5.1% vs 2.8%(Wed), giving Lockharts comments some weight. FOMC Lockhart Speech Highlights: -Fed's Lockhart: Fed Not Behind Curve, Has Time to Decide on Next Rate Move -Lockhart: Time for 'Cautious and Patient Approach' to Rate Policy -Lockhart: So Far 'Brexit' Reaction Largely Orderly -Lockhart: 'Brexit' Will Increase Long Term Uncertainty -Lockhart: Doesn't Expect 'Brexit' to Have Near Term Impact on Economy -Lockhart: Bond Market Yields Largely Reflect Flight-To-Quality Buying -Lockhart: Too Soon to Say 'All Clear' for Financial Markets -Lockhart: 'Brexit' Not a 'Leman Moment' -Lockhart: Still Expects U.S. to Grow by 2%, Expects More Job Gains -Lockhart: Economy is 'Performing Adequately' -Lockhart Says Fed Has Time to Decide on Next Rate Move -Fed's Lockhart: Presidential Election May Be Boosting Economic Uncertainty -Fed's Lockhart: Won't Rule Out Two Rate Rises This Year
TVC:DXYLong
by QuantumLogicTrading
LONG USD VS JPY, EUR, GBP: HAWISK FED BULLARD - FED FUNDS RALLYBullard is the lone Fed official forecasting just one additional rate increase, and expects modest growth over the next two and a half years. But he reiterated Tuesday he's not expecting the economy to head south. However, did go out of his way to mention a relatively dovish point "We Have Some Ammunition if We Need it During Next Recession". Nonetheless he remained hawkish net on the margin, reiterating FED Georges hawkish comments regarding the labour market "About as Good as It's Ever Been", whilst using the June NFP print to flatten any questions regarding the low May print saying "Strong June Jobs Gains Showed May Report Was 'An Anomaly'". Similarly Bullard continued with Georges sentiment of the US's post-brexit robustness stating that the "Market Reaction to Brexit Shock Was 'Satisfactory,' 'Orderly'" - and infact surprisingly pushed this hawkish brexit sentiment on to new levels of "Ultimately the Brexit Impact on U.S. Economy Will be 'Close to Zero'". This is perhaps the most hawkish/ upbeat statement i have heard form a key Fed member since the decision which is positive given Bullard's naturally dovish stance. Bullard also stressed the need for a solid US Fiscal package to boost demand, where i have to say fiscal stimulus has almost gone forgotten about in the last 7-years post crash, given the dominance of the central banks, quoting "U.S. Badly Needs Fiscal Agenda for Boosting Economic Growth". Once again todays "FED speaker tracker" continues to add to my long $ view in the medium term. Today already we have seen front end rates continue their aggressive recovery this week, with the fed funds rate implied 25bps hike probability now trading for Sept/ Nov at a whopping 18% vs 11.7%Mon, with Dec trading at 36.3% vs 29.2%Mon . 10y UST (TNX) rates trade up another 4% today after a 5% gain yesterday, whilst 30yrs trade 3% up on the day (TNY) - as global risk rallies. Whilst USD is trading a little weaker in the immediate term as it readjusts lower for risk-on USD selling, long USD/ DXY is my medium term view as we continue to see the US FOMC Rate curve aggressively steepen, which is likely to continue for the next week at least - steeper implied curve means hike is more likely - more likely or realised hikes = increased (in the medium-term) dollar strength. Further, we expect dovish/ easing BOJ BOE ECB over the same period, this monetary policy divergence compounds the long $ view against its 3 biggest crosses (hence the long DXY expression) Medium term trading strategy: 1. The best expression of this medium term USD view is long DXY - as above I hold 8/10 conviction views for a number of the heavily weighted USD basket crosses based largely on likely monetary policy divergence in the medium term (FOMC Hiking whilst BOE, BOJ & ECB ease/ cut) e.g. LONG USDJPY @104 - 106.3TP1 109.5TP2; SHORT EURUSD @1.11 - 109.3TP1 107.5TP2; GBPUSD @1.34 - 131.2TP1 128.5TP2
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
8
SELL EURUSD/ LONG USD, DXY: HAWKISH FED GEORGE SPEECH HIGHLIGHTSIMO FOMC George was largely bullish/ Hawkish $ on the margin; surprisingly coming out and stating for one of the first times that "Fed rates are too low" and "Not Raising Rates in June Was Due to Timing Issues" - these two statements imo hint that a hike coUuld be on the cards earlier than perhaps was expected (Dec), in-light of his opinion of them being too low and that the missed June hike was merely due "timing issues".. could these timing issue be corrected in July? Unlikely given the Brexit result (likely if the vote was bremain), but nonetheless this was more than encouraging. On the wider economy George remained upbeat, highlighting last weeks NFP report as "welcomed news", and in the medium term reaffirming that "pace of job market growth has been notable" and "economy nearing full employment. The only downers were his comments regarding business investment which he said was "weak" but after went on to assure that "outside of energy, business investment levels were better". Further, he cited that brexit issues were "longer run" uncertainties that the FOMC will watch. Federal Funds Rate Implied Hike/ Cut Probability curve updates: On the back of the strong 100k+ beat NFP print last week, going into this week we have seen an aggressive steepening in the Fed Funds implied prob curve across the tenors; Fridays steepening trend has continued into this week, where now a September/ Nov Hike trades at 12%/11.8% vs 5.9%/5.9% on Friday and 0%/0% on Thursday, with a Dec hike trading at 29.6% vs 22.5% Friday. - This aggressive steepening, especially in the front end (where probabilities have doubled), is likely a function of FOMC member Georges Hawkish comments today, the NFP print and the aggressive recovery in risk across the board in the past few days which have all collectively improved confidence, which in turn has eased sell-side pressure on UST rates - today 10y UST rates have managed to trade 4.4% higher on the day (tnx), with 30y yields also up +0.95% - this is the first real break of downside pressure we have seen in rates for the past month. Trading strategy: 1. The above combined has helped my broad long $ view with my favourite expressions short term being in NZD$ and AUD$ downside (See attached posts). In the medium term, EUR$ and $JPY dollar upside are my favourite trades for the risk-on element that will readjust the USD higher in the backend of this year (see attached posts); And the Monetary policy divergence + brexit uncertainty that should bring EUR$ to a lower equilibrium in the future also. Alternatively, this view can be aggregated as pictured into a long DXY play, where imo, it trades 3-4% below equilibrium - index should be near 100. FOMC Member George Speech Highlights : -Fed's George: June Jobs Data Was 'Welcome News' -Fed's George: U.S. Economy Has Proved 'Resilient' -Fed's George: Expects to See 'Fairly Steady Pace of Growth' -Fed's George: Consumers Strong, But Business Investment Weak -Fed's George: Outside of Energy, Business Investment Levels Better -Fed's George: Pace Of Job Market Growth Has Been Noteworthy -Fed's George: Economy Close to Full Employment -Fed's George: Labor Market Recovery Not Evenly Shared by Workers -Fed's George: Labor Pressured by Loss of Middle Skilled Jobs -Fed's George: Fed Policy Limited in Role For Long Term Labor Trends -Fed's George: Fed Rates Are 'Too Low' -Fed's George: Fed Should Raise Rates Gradually -Fed's George: Not Raising Rates in June Was Due to 'Timing Issues' -Fed's George: Brexit Issues Are Longer Run Items to Watch
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
3
USD/ DXY: FOMC DUDLEY & WILLIAMS - BREXIT & US ECONOMY SPILLOVER1. IMO Dudley tipped to the dovish side, especially on key inflation highlighting that it is " rising again, but still low". Other rhetoric reaffirmed much of what has been said post the brexit vote e.g. Uncertainty being the biggest factor. 2. Meanwhile, Williams was notably more upbeat/ optimistic, shrugging off the US's shock miss NFP report to instead point out that the underlying trend remains upward. He also relatively underplayed Brexit by saying his baseline view is that it will have a "modest impact" vs Dudleys sitting on the fence of "too soon to say". Further, Williams went on to underplay Brexit as a "normal global economic uncertainty". 3. Nonetheless, both found common ground regarding the "Uncertainty" surrounding the Brexit US spillover effects and "data dependency" being key for FOMC decisions. This has been the case not only between the two today but also for several members in the past few weeks/ months. 4. USD now looks to FOMC Minutes from the June Meeting for any further hints of net member direction and NFP on Friday. I expect much of the same, with bias to Dudley's more cautious/ dovish approach likely to underlie the Minutes but hopefully an outstanding NFP report to spur the USD. 5. The 30-day Federal Funds Rate futures market sold-off Fridays Hawkish gains today, with the Implied Probability of a 25bps FOMC rate hike significantly flattened across the curve, with a Sept/ Nov Hike now at 0% vs 5.9%, Dec at 13.7% vs 22.3% and Feb 2017 at 13.4% vs 21.8%. We also saw a dovish skew across the tenors in favour of a 25bps cut, with Sept/Nov probabilities increasing to 2.4% vs 2.2% Sept and 4.4% vs 2.2% Nov. July expectations traded flat at 97.6% no change. 6. Nonetheless, it was William's bias that won the day as DXY Traded well offered, up 66pips at 96.21, much of which driven by the risk-off turn markets have taken, sending USD higher across the board, most notably against the antipodeans (RBA driven), CAD (oil 4% lower) and GBP (down 2%) as BOE Gov Carney continued to provide dovish sentiment. Also imo earnings season $ demand may have started to price the index higher. 7. Going forward I expect to see continued USD strength across the board as GBP, the Antipodeans, CAD and JPY are likely to realise weakness on the back of poor economic fundamentals, brexit, and further oil falling (global growth worries - brexit/ china linked). Also I expect BOJ easing to price UJ higher in the near future which, all in all, should provide the perfect environment for a higher DXY and USD especially against JPY, NZD and GBP over the next 4-6wks for the attached reasons. End of week DXY should close up 3%+ if NFP comes in firm/ strong - 98.5 target Dudley on US Economy: - Dudley: Brexit Main Uncertainty, Too Soon to Say Impact Yet - Dudley: Investment in U.S. Also an Uncertainty - Dudley: Inflation Is Rising Again, But Still Low - Dudley: Fed Policy Remains Data Dependent - Dudley: Uncertain Outlook Means Can't Predict Fed's Next Move Williams on Brexit: - "I think the economic effects, on the baseline scenario, are relatively modest, but there still is the uncertainty about how things are actually going to play out," - "I would say that what's happened with Brexit has been just one of the normal uncertainties that always occur in the global economy and things that we just have to take into account," - On the poor US Jobs Report - "the underlying trend continues to be good, continues to be above trend and continues to show that the economy is strengthening and not weakening,"
TVC:DXYLong
by QuantumLogicTrading