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Longnzdusd

Possible bottom for NZD/USDThis is a similar setup to GBP/USD. I wouldn't expect a deep dig underneath the buyzone.Maybe accumulation and a stops hit below it before reversing. When I'm calling tops and bottoms, that don't mean that price will trend up or down for eternity from there. These are setups I'm confident with to add size into or have a wider stop. I don't know what the market will do but from backtesting, when these levels are generated, there is usually a reversal that follows.Sometimes it's insntantly, sometimes it's over the course of days.I wouldn't enter trades on them especially the first 1-3 levels.
Long
by PEAKFINDER
1
NZDUSD - FOREX - 24. MAY. 2021Welcome to our weekly trade setup ( NZDUSD )! - 1 HOUR Bullish break above main sr level. 4 HOUR Expecting more bullish presure shortly.. DAILY Turning market structure, good long entries! - FOREX SETUP BUY NZDUSD ENTRY LEVEL @ 0.72000 SL @ 0.71580 TP @ 0.72570 Max Risk: 0.5% - 1%! (Remember to add a few pips to all levels - different Brokers!) Leave us a comment or like to keep our content for free and alive. Have a great week everyone! ALAN
Long
by DACapitalTrading
6
NZD/USD daily long opportunity 1. we can long trade from ( 0.65000 - 0.64750 ) zone to TP1: 0.66400 , TP2: 0.67600 2. or long when price breakup the red down ward channel and close above it . stop lose : 0.63900 . his is not an investment recommendation or any call to buy or sell It is just an analysis based on a study of the history of price action Behavior , that may not be a necessarily reason for the success of the structure or repetition. So please make your decision based on your vision . To protect capital and manage your deals and trading successfully the maximum loss in each transaction for the same currency or commodity in the same direction should not exceed ( 2% ) of the capital . Good luck >>
Long
by Golden_Spiral
NZDUSD/ AUDUSD: RBNZ GOV WHEELER SPEECH HIGHLIGHTSGovernor of the RBNZ Wheeler offered little bearish pressure on kiwi, refusing to go into any intervention talk and failing to say what the bank will actually use to tame this deflationaire NZD they are experiencing at the moment - with the comments below in mind imo this leaves on direction for Kiwi (short of some FOMC/ USD bullish pressure which seems unlikely as rate expectations continue to be sold-off on the back of a quiet data week) and thats higher - in the speech it became apparent that cutting rates does little to curb kiwi strength given the relative differential remains the highest in G10 in this low interest environment both AUD and NZD rates remain some 50-150bps more attractive for those low risk yield seeking funds. On a break of 0.733 I see NZD$ moving towards 0.76 - though any USD strength could tame the cross, especailly given 60bps of further cuts have been built into the kiwi projections - though given there is 6wks until the next meeting imo there is certainly time for us to move higher before moving lower into the meeting as dovish expectations build as they did before. From here AUD looks more attractive here given their lack of forward guidance, and already breakout levels 0.78 is now the target - USD strength may continue weak given the presidential election.. is it likely the FOMC will hike just before an election e.g. sept or nov? despite their independence this seems unlikely + imo a Dec hike makes the most sense especially as some feds call for some consistency e.g. 12m as it is easier to measure policy transmission this way. One potential downside to this view is USD strength, whilst we seem to be in a wave of relentless selling this could be reversed if it is no election related (though there is little else impetus offered) but nonetheless given AUD's breakout i think the 0.78 target is still fair and given NZDs reaction already - it is unlikely we see sellers from here, this reaction almost mimics the RBA's rate cut reaction e.g. 50pips higher - but that was then followed by 200pips higher 1wk later.. we could certainly be in for the same price action here and this is what my bets are on. RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speech Highlights: -WHEELER: NOT SURPRISED BY NZD MOVE AFTER TODAY'S DECISION -WHEELER: RBNZ HAS BUILT 60BPS OF CUTS INTO PROJECTIONS -WHEELER: NO SERIOUS CONSIDERATIONS OF A 50BPS CUT -RBNZ GOV WHEELER: WOULD LIKE TO SEE MOST OF RATE CUT PASSED ON BY BANKS -WHEELER: THERE IS FLEXIBILITY IN POLICY TARGETS AGREEMENT -WHEELER: WANT NZD TO FALL, WANT TO TAKE PRESSURE OFF NZD WITH LOWER RATES -WHEELER: DEBT TO INCOME TOOL UNLIKELY TO BE IMPLEMENTED THIS YEAR -WHEELER: WAGE MODERATION GREATER THAN RBNZ EXPECTED -WHEELER: RBNZ HAS LIMITED INFLUENCE OVER NZD -WHEELER: WOULD BE CONCERNED IF THERE WAS A FURTHER DROP IN ST INFLATION EXPECTATIONS -WHEELER: WILL LOOK AT NZD REACTION OVER COMING DAYS
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
1
NZDUSD: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - TARGET 0.701 BUT USD WEAKNESS?NZD$ Technical Analysis: Moving Average/ fair price gauge: 1. Kiwi looks rich here at the lower 0.72 level which, significantly above the 3m and 12m which sit at 0.703 and 0.690 respestively, whilst the 1 trades at 0.711. - However, going into RBNZ where they are expected to be dovish (discussed in detail in attached post), these MA levels fall nicely in line with areas of price action suppport and thus will be used as profit targets - thus 0.711, 0.701 and 0.691 are my TP1 TP2 and TP3 levels however, given the bearish bias >50% of my lots will be squared at between the 0.701 and the 0.61 level. The 0.711 level is an intermediate TP, which is better suited for 0.718 shorts vs the 0.722 shorts that i currently hold. 0.691 is possible but is skewed towards the bottom of the range, with 0.681 at the very LHS - a 50bps cut and strong dovish forward guidance e.g. like BOE will likely offer us here - cable managed to fall some 350-400pips which ceteris paribus takes kiwi into the 0.681 level also. Volatility 1. Realised vol has contracted aggressively in the last few days as the daily ranges have tightened unsurprisingly going into RBNZ - IV on the other hand also unsurprisingly has traded bid as option positioning increases as investors place bets on RBNZ. - Net bets to date look to be bearish, with current 25d risk reversals skewed to the downside at -2.6vols, and across the view we observe a -0.5 to -1 downside bias reflecting the expected RBNZ dovish pressure expected. - 50d ATM vols trade currently at 30%, 14.8% 1wks, 12.3% 2wks and 11.3% 1m - clearly the RBNZ and following speakers are steepening the vols here. Though interestingly past current and 1wks, 2wk and 1m IVs are flatter than RV, indicating the market expects kiwi price action to settle after the next week which could mean we see NZD$ move post RBNZ then stabalise at this level vs obseriving continued seesaw action of the past 6wks e.g. 0.70-3 ranging. - Interestingly RV has developed a 60-80% correlated pattern of aggressive/ volatile price action emerging AFTER RV reaching the 5.0-5.5 level (current levels) so assuming my/ markets RBNZ forecasts are correct one would expect this move to be lower (ive highlighted these moves). Standard Deviation: 1. On the daily weve seen SD normalise from the previous levels where kiwi tested the +2 levels after realising these upper 0.72 levels for a sustained amount of time now - hence NZD$ trades at pretty normal levels for the linear regression though an uptrend as now formed vs sideways/ flat being the previous trend. However, I am betting on the RBNZ offering kiwi lower and realising some days below the 0.70 which should see the kiwi trade at 0.70 as an average price at years end - assuming the RBNZ has seen RBA and BOE (and the difference in response and will use this to make their policy effective).
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading