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RDDT Option trading arbitrageCurrent price 60.90$ Puts for 21st of June @60 cost 110@ per contract. 100 contracts=10K$ investment, We can immodestly cover the position with 2000/2500 stocks @61 depending on the risk tolerance of the trader. My personal choice is not covering the whole position since I am expecting my main position which is the PUTS to gain 50K by the end of the week and in case I am wrong I prefer to cover only 7K from the initial 10k investment. So basically we need more than 10K capital to make this position but the risk of actually losing money is max 2-3K lose with a potential gain of 50thousand and the chance of the position being a winner is 63% which for such an RIsk-Reward is an amazing opportunity.
NYSE:RDDTShort
by Elite_Forex
8
AAPL Ascending Intermediate Trend Break Bear Market PlayDescription AAPL has had a nice run up following the upside break of its intermediate bear trendline (descending 2pt red line) on 24 JUN, forming its new intermediate upside trend (ascending 2pt green line) all the way up to its Descending Major Bear Trend (descending 3pt line) cemented on 30MAR. This week and the next will certainly end with a clearer picture for direction moving forward, but given current market conditions it is more likely that it should be down. SPY and DIA have seen similar intermediate moves, but have not made it to their descending major trend lines yet meaning a reversal is still far from being signaled, and this week will show how the IXIC behaves after having breached it on 10 AUG. It is still early in the Bear Market - geopolitical and economic risks have not cooled substantially to merit a major reversal in trend. Real inversion of the Yield Curve has only just occurred on 13 JUL and the trends are in for further inversion moving forward. Technical Indicators to signal the entry: Daily close below the intermediate trend accompanied by significant volume spike Major Trend Line rejection Downside break of the 168 - 171 Supply/Demand Zone Bear cross on MACD Technical Risk Factors: Golden Cross on 50/200 EMA Although a golden cross is usually considered a strong reversal signal, I am discounting this technical risk factor due to the 200 EMA remaining relatively flat in the early bear market. VIX downside break of Major Ascending Trendline on 4 AUG IXIC established over Major Bear Descending Trendline There is no real price target here as this is basically a trend trade - hence a longer dated Put - but there are take profit targets @ 156.5 , 137 & 130 . If all targets were met, advise a runner and potentially a roll down and out prior to expiration. Using a Long ITM Put here in order to: achieve a higher delta, maintain a conservative position, get long volatility while the VIX is low, and leave the downside open in case of a long, swift fall. Long Put Levels on Chart SL: 177.5 PT: Down the trend TP: 156.5, 137 & 130 *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 10/21 180P R/R & Breakevens vary on fill. Manage Risk Only invest what you are willing to lose I warrant that the information created and published by me on TradingView is not prohibited, doesn't constitute investment advice, and isn't created solely for qualified investors.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by BarnardR
TSLA Symmetrical Triangle Break Weekly Options PlayDescription TSLA Began the formation of this Symmetrical Triangle after achieving an ATH @ 1243.49. The Symmetrical Triangle is a common congestion pattern, typically indicative of continuations, accompanied by descending volume (on chart) and a heavy volume on the breakout. My point of contention with this pattern is okay volume on the breakout. It is only slightly above average when calculated on a 60 day period, or slightly below on a 30 day period. Although there is generally no advance indication of breakout direction, an indication can be what other stocks are doing - making bearish breaks through major trendlines and support levels since FEB - MAR of this year. The resulting price move implied by the pattern is equal to price move that preceded the pattern. So depending on where the measurement starts, the breakout, once confirmed, implies a 330 point minimum to a 680 point maximum move to the downside. Intermediate price targets: 900, 775 and throwbacks to the triangle's apex are common @ ~1100. My intermediate price targets are above the pattern-implied price targets due to the expiration of the position. Long Put Levels on Chart SL is a daily close back in the triangle PT : 900 *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 12/23 900P R/R & Breakevens vary on fill. The price target is the support at 900, which is above the break-even at expiration, so the primary objective of the position is to capitalize on a quick downward move in TSLA stock price and profit on the increase in time value premium. For those who didn't short @ 1200: An ATM, further dated Long Put would serve the objective of the position better if it is within your risk tolerance. Or an ATM synthetic short if you have the ability to sell naked options. And without the ability to short effectively or sell naked options, an ITM put would serve best, if within your risk tolerance. If you want me to build these positions, just ask. Manage Risk Only invest what you are willing to lose
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by BarnardR
27
Lyft Downside Wedge Break Weekly Options PlayDescription Been watching this wedge in Lyft, and it caught my attention when it broke to the upside on 05NOV, trade here The throwback into the pattern following the breakout increases my ease with this short position. The trigger was a break and hold below 46, which occured yesterday. Today LYFT went to retake the accumulation line but failed, leading to this starter short position. I will look to add to this position on a decisive break away from the accumulation line of the wedge. Using Long Puts Long Put Levels on Chart SL is a daily close over 46. Target price is the demand zone at 38 developed in NOV - DEC 20'. *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 12/23 40P R/R & Breakevens vary on fill. The placement of the long put is ~halfway between the current price and the target price for balance of chance of profit at expiration and R/R. Manage Risk Only invest what you are willing to lose
NASDAQ:LYFTShort
by BarnardR
CWEB Weekly Options PlayDescription CWEB has been working it down from its ATH since FEB of this year, and has gotten stopped up in the congestion pattern. I have been watching it to pick a direction to enter a position and it looks like it finally has broken to the downside. I have been using Long Puts in all my short positions because I do not want to cap my downside potential to leave it open for fat tail scenarios in the current market environment. Call Debit Spread Levels on Chart SL > 17.5 This level marks an all-time low in the security. *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 12/17 16P R/R & Breakevens vary on fill. The long call is placed ATM for highest chance of profit at expiration. 12/17 is all I'm willing to go with for expiration because I do not want to pay the extra premium to push it out to January. Manage Risk Only invest what you are willing to lose
AMEX:CWEBShort
by BarnardR
BA Descending Triangle Weekly Options PlayDescription BA has been working this Descending Triangle from its post-covid crash high around 278. There was one false breakout to the upside on 15NOV, which I traded, related idea linked. Descending Triangles are bearish in nature, and the implied move carries BA down to 137. Intermediate supports are at 194, 179 and eventually 144.5. The immense amount of short triggers I am getting in this market is alarming, indicating institutional liquidation has been going on since around JAN - FEB. The "new strain scare" from last Friday shows a perfect of example of investors looking for excuses to sell, not reasons. In reality, the market is not worth its current valuation. Good News = Rising rates = bad for earnings = bad for stock market And bad news is just bad news. Long Put Levels on Chart SL > 205.8 PT : 179 *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 12/31 180P R/R & Breakevens vary on fill. The long put is placed at a reasonable midpoint between current stock price and eventual price target utilizing available strikes. I do not expect BA to reach this price target in a month. Manage Risk Only invest what you are willing to lose
NYSE:BAShort
by BarnardR
4
UBER Weekly Options PlayDescription UBER began its bear market after the break in the major trendline July. It has now broken through major support established from the ascending triangle that was built in MAR - NOV timeframe of 20' and was also tested in SEP of 21'. The break through 38 is the signal for the entry, and also the stop loss for the position. Using long puts to leave the downside open. The level of the VIX right now is my primary concern in opening long option positions. I consider all of my positions risky, and manage risk accordingly. Long Put Levels on Chart SL > 38 PT : 33* *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 12/17 34P R/R & Breakevens vary on fill. *At 33 I will take profits, and roll to OTM puts. The Long put is placed OTM for higher profit percentage, but before the target price for max chance of success by expiration. Manage Risk Only invest what you are willing to lose
NYSE:UBERShort
by BarnardR
3
DIS Bearish Continuation Play Following Descending Triangle GapDescription Been tracking the descending triangle that DIS was working since early MAR, with a short alert set and triggered on the lower boundary. It was a massive gap though (an indication of a strong break-out), so I have been waiting on a retracement before entry. Today marks a solid rejection of the resistance set in NOV19 and retested before the gap into the pattern on 9DEC20' @ 154.5 , conveniently located at the .382 retracement following the start of this decline, thus triggering the short entry. The implied move from the Descending Triangle takes DIS down to 136. I am not a perma-bear by many means, but I am seeing the same things in almost every chart I look at. The rebound to near ATHs in the indexes earlier this week were only textbook retracements in a lot of the names that have made major bearish breaks in the last 3 months. The VIX is also finding support at 20. Long Put Levels on Chart SL > 154.5 PT : 136 *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 12/31 145P R/R & Breakevens vary on fill. Tight Stops and Risk Management Only invest what you are willing to lose
NYSE:DISShort
by BarnardR
TMUS Weekly Options PlayDescription TMUS began its bear market following the major trendline break in August. It has now broken through major support at 108.5 established SEP - OCT of 20'. The break through 108.5 is the signal for the entry, and also the stop loss for the position. Using long puts to leave the downside open. The level of the VIX right now is my primary concern in opening long option positions. I consider all of my positions risky, and manage risk accordingly. Long Put Levels on Chart SL > 108.5 PT : 92 *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 12/31 100P R/R & Breakevens vary on fill. Manage Risk Only invest what you are willing to lose
NASDAQ:TMUSShort
by BarnardR
DKNG Neckline BreakDescription DKNG appears to have made a break in the neckline as well as a back test, and I will be entering a starter Long Put position. For the larger time frame, refer to the idea I published here: Technical Indicators: Break in the neckline Death Cross on 29OCT Neckline rejection today Good volume on the breakout Using Long Puts Long Put Levels on Chart SL is set as a break and hold above the ascending neckline. Our eventual price target, as measured by the height of the "head", has us retracing the entire move that was made in 2020. For an intermediate target, we will go with the support set in August of 20. *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 11/26 42P R/R & Break-evens vary on fill. Manage Risk Only invest what you are willing to lose
NASDAQ:DKNGShort
by BarnardR
SNAP Broadening Formation Breakout Weekly Options PlayDescription Snap has been working this pattern since DEC20, making its ATH in September of 21' and appears to have broken the lower accumulation line. The trigger for the short position is @ 50 on the weekly time frame, but 49 on the daily time frame, so the position here is a starter. Following a back test or definitive continuation, I will be adding to the position or stopping out at 50. Refer to this chart for the longer time frame: Technical Indicators: Break of lower accumulation line Converging 50/200D EMA Good volume on the breakout Using Long Puts Long Put Levels on Chart SL is a daily close > 50. An intermediate price target is at 44, then 35, and longer term is set at 17.5. For an intermediate target, we will be going with 44. *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 12/23 45P R/R & Break-evens vary on fill. Manage Risk Only invest what you are willing to lose
NYSE:SNAPShort
by BarnardR
5
DUK Weekly Options PlayDescription DUK has been working this patter that looks a lot like a head and shoulders, missing some volume indications. If so, the neckline has been broken here at 97. As always, most patterns are not confirmed until they are already over. The break through 97 is the signal for the entry, and also the stop loss for the position. Using long puts to leave the downside open. The level of the VIX right now is my primary concern in opening long option positions. I consider all of my positions risky, and manage risk accordingly. Long Put Levels on Chart SL > 97 PT : 86 *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 1/21/2022 95P R/R & Breakevens vary on fill. The January dated put is due to the limited amount of expiration dates to choose from. Manage Risk Only invest what you are willing to lose
NYSE:DUKShort
by BarnardR
TWTR Weekly Options PlayDescription TWTR remains in extended downtrend that began in FEB of this year. Began broadening formation in August that ended in a breakout to the downside of both the broadening formation and the major trendline that began in MAR of 20' Long Put Levels on Chart SL on a daily close over the lower trendline in the broadening formation. This can happen and a short is still valid, but due to the nature of options this position will be a close-out and search for new entry. *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 11/12 53P R/R & Breakevens vary on fill. Manage Risk Only invest what you are willing to lose
NYSE:TWTRShort
by BarnardR
Well that was fun, KMX... but now let's settle down for a bit. KMX beat on earnings, but did it deserve to jump so high? They've returned to growth, ie stopped sucking. But was that worth such a huge and quick gap between 50/200dma. I'm hoping that it's going to deflate a bit in the very near term... at least drop to it's 200dma for a moment... Long put at 60 for May. It's only .15 to buy and underlying would only have to drop to 68 by monday to make 70% profit...
NYSE:KMXShort
by Lothar_of_the_Hill_People