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LOW

ridethepig | Looking at AUDNZD from 40,000ftOn the AUD side, RBA crystal clear about conditions needed for further easing and unlikely in the near-term. Unemployment overshooting may be the start of a round of good data for AUD which will keep the RBA on hold meaning markets will need to price out all of those betting on a RBA Feb rate cut. On the NZD side, RBNZ slightly hawkish surprise in the last meeting and see a lot of NZD shorts left that that need unwinding. Although into year-end NZD also spiking higher but rather than from good data it was with a positional squeeze into 0.66xx before running out of steam. With that in mind I see both AUD and NZD as bullish vs USD but AUD has more room to outperform if data holds: A “ Royal Flush ” for us and the Commodity Currencies. As widely mentioned yesterday, stronger AUD employment data sending AUDUSD flying towards the 0.69xx handle: I am looking to close longs at 0.695x which is still the same level in play from the larger swing into year-end: For those holding since October when we loaded the breakup we will have to wait till 2020 to clear final targets: For the AUD macro map: For the NZD macro map: As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions and etc! Feel free to jump into the conversations in the comments with your views/charts. If we get enough interest we will have a round of Fixed Income chart updates coming for AU and NZ.
Long
by ridethepig
5
Lowe LOW short cover on not bad earningsLOWE has earnings reporting this morning with the beat they should have some exciting action. This is straight up a short cover trade so there should be lots of range for the options but also risk that is why options is the choice to trade this. in this one to move the options chain. Looking at this at market open for 2 ways 1)pure options buy of the $120 Dec20 2019 call 2)selling the straddle at open nov 22 $118 puts and call to bleed out the earning premium. Liquidity is key we do have a reversal setup on the ninja scalper As always trade ideas are generated from The NinjaScalper (Part of the trade indicator suite of tools) #TradeSafe #TradeSocially None of this is investment advice just for your infotainment and edutainment
NYSE:LOW
by Osirustwits
LOW: Flipped WedgeBack in May 2018 LOW started an inverted wedge including a partial rise and failed to break down in Aug 2019, and reversing course to flip the wedge upside down for a possible breakout above (imminent). RSI, MACD, ADX and PSAR are all bullish. The only thorn in my eye is marked 'X' at the beginning of September this year, there are no solid 'weekly' candles touching the upper trend line. This is worrying as it technically can be considered "busted". While there are instances where stocks DO break out in the right direction in cases such as this, they are rather rare. I would still point to a positive breakout above, given all these higher lows and higher highs the stock is producing. But I will say this as a personal opinion only. In case of a breakout above the ATH, the next target would be 143 (technical confirmation minus market risk). Earnings Release is tomorrow (Wednesday BMO). I will update this post tonight 30min before close should there be any changes.
NYSE:LOW
by UnknownUnicorn5323213
NZDJPY is going downNZDJPY is currently in the upper part of the range channel and it is very likely to go back down in the next hours. TP and SL are the top and the bottom of the channel respectively that I have indicated with the horizontal lines. I calculate the risk for this trade as over 3 times lower than the potential profit. Good luck! *This idea is for educational and advising purposes and should not be the exclusive base of your trades. Before trading, make your own analysis as well.
Short
by YoungMoneyBillionaires
3
THE WEEK AHEAD: HD, LOW, TGT, GPS, M EARNINGS; /NG, VIX, VXXEARNINGS: HD (24/21) (Tuesday Before Market) LOW (68/35) (Wednesday Before Market) TGT (66/37) (Wednesday Before Market) GPS (60/53) (Thursday After Market) M (97/67) (Thursday Before Market) Pictured here is an M short straddle at the 17 strike in the December cycle, paying 2.73 with 14/72/19.73 break evens, and delta/theta metrics of -4.49/3.77. Look to put on a play on Wednesday before the end of the New York session. In second place for ideal volatility contraction metrics is GPS (60/53). As with M, I would short straddle here, with the December 20th 18 paying 2.22 with 15/78/20.22 break evens, and delta/theta metrics of 1.29/3.06. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS: TLT (42/12) EEM (40/17) SLV (29/20) EWZ (26/27) FXI (26/19) ... with the first expiry in which the at-the-money short straddle pays more than 10% of the value of the underlying: TLT, January '21; EEM, June; SLV, July; EWZ, March; and FXI, May. Both the rank/implied metrics, as well as the short straddle value metric indicate that it's probably a good time to hand sit on selling shorter duration premium here. BROAD MARKET: With VIX finishing the week at 12.05, volatility is at or near 52 week lows here in all the majors: SPY's in the 6th percentile; IWM in the 4th; and QQQ at 0. The first expiry in which the at-the money short straddle pays greater than 10% of the value of the underlying: SPY, Sept; IWM, June; and QQQ, June. Both the rank/implied metrics, as well as the short straddle value metric indicate that it's probably a good time to hand sit on selling shorter duration premium here. FUTURES: /6B (63/11) /NG (40/59) /ZS (30/20) /SI (29/19) /CL (24/33) As I may have mentioned last week, it's no surprise that /NG volatility is frisking up here. Generally, I play natty for seasonality, so look to get in with something bullish assumption at seasonal lows/peak injection, bail out of the long delta position in January or February depending on how Mother Nature feels, and then look to ride the elevator down in the opposite direction with a short delta position. I'm not keen on selling nondirectional premium (e.g., iron condors), particularly given what natty did last winter, so am sticking with my traditional, no-nonsense seasonality play. Another item of note: GVX (gold volatility) has dropped substantially here, finishing the week at 11.22, in the 23rd percentile for the year ... . VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES: As previously mentioned, VIX closed the week at near 2019 lows (12.05), with the December, January, and February /VX contracts trading at 15.09, 16.60, and 17.50, respectively. Consequently, VIX term structure trades are still viable in the January and February expiries, but would probably beg off a December setup in the absence of a pop that runs that contract up to >16; the 16 strike is generally the lowest I will go with the short option leg of a VIX term structure trade. As far as derivatives are concerned, this definitely isn't the place to be adding shorts. While it may be that VIX hangs out at these levels for a lengthy period of time, shorts are most productive on VIX pops -- not at VIX lows, even if contango and beta slippage are really working in shorts' favor here. As we all know, both the current steep contango and low VIX levels can evaporate in a heartbeat. If anything, this may be one of the rare occasions to consider a small bullish assumption trade (e.g., a VXX December 20th 15/17/17/19 "Super Bull,"* paying a .20 credit, with max profit/loss metrics of 2.20/1.80 and a break even of 16.80 versus the 17.40 where VXX is currently trading). * -- A 15/17 short put vertical combined with a 17/19 long call vertical.
NYSE:M
by NaughtyPines
3
Trading Journal on GBPJPY for intraday 29 Oct 2019Hi everyone,i try keep updating my journal analysis for better and better understanding in market behavior. This is my analysis on Intraday for pair GBPJPY. During Asia Session price try to test and take liquidity at highest yesterday price at 140.243 and go down for for almost 40 pips and failed to make new low which is indicate price want to retest latest high and yet failed to make new high and during London open market- seller enter market at high price and go down for 63.8 pips and reject at low monthly candle at 3 Dec 2018 at price level 139.495 and go up due to several low impact news. Trading Conclusion 1)Price failed to make new high from previous high(140.259). 2)Price go down to take find high liquidity and reject at low monthly candle 3 Dec 2018. 3)Price will try to test new high for today at 140.300 and 140.500-140.600 4)or,Price fail to break today high and try to make new low 139.350 and 139.050 5)H4 chart shown that price failed to make new low and looking for uptrend for coming week. Anyone feel free to comment and review my analysis for better understanding in market behavior. Thanks for Like and comment.
Long
by MxNadhir
XRP/USD ALMOST AT THE END OF THE WEEKLY CHART BEAR RUN...::: THIS IS A WEEKLY CHART !!! :::... XRP/USD is coming to the end of it's bearish run on the daily, but still within the triangle on the weekly chart. Price action is nearing completion of the Level 2 move (2-1, 2-2, 2-3), which will then start the Peak Formation Low (PFL) move which is a Level 3. No doubt, going by past market structure, manipulation will be constant and keep the price at a consolidation zone in order to frustrate the market even more. I'm expecting a 3 legged W formation before the first fake breakout of the triangle structure, as noted on the chart. Manipulation will continue before the final drop, which should complete and confirm a level 1 base before launch anywhere between December 2019 ~ February 2020. My opinion is that they will launch towards the middle or end of January 2020 to complete the level 1 move and start on a level 2 move around 0.42 cents. From level 2 to PFH (@ 0.58 cents), could be very fast or drawn out. Note that all of the EMAs are starting to fan out, which signals preparation for a reversal of trend. When we look at the TDI indicator at the bottom, it also shows we are approaching the oversold area, with RSI approaching the lower outer band. I'm expecting the market will push the RSI downwards a little more, to form a sharkfin before the uptrend starts, breaking out of the triangle structure. The fast EMA (the red line within the TDI indicator) should also follow RSI, although I'm expecting it to touch the lower band (blood in the water), coinciding with the sharkfin pattern. I believe the sharkfin blood in the water pattern, may occur around October 2019 (next month), so we will most likely see lower pricing, possibly around 0.20 cents USD, before the bullish trend starts properly. I've marked this chart conservatively because in the last 12 months, the chart shows that the XRP market conditions are highly manipulated to the extreme, not following normal psychological and normal buying patterns, coupled together with Ripple dumping huge amounts of coin into the market, out of their escrow wallets, no doubt to keep current pricing low and within the triangle structure. Yes, 1000% this coin is manipulated by ripple themselves. Why? who knows... especially because the higher value that XRP has, would facilitate xrapid and other transfers with XRP and would help increase market sentiment... so in my opinion, its non sensical... but once this current manipulation has run it's course, we should see a very strong uptrend, possible gaps in prices from candle to candle, within the 4 hourly to daily chart. My guess is that we should see XRP arrive, at least $150 to $200 by June 2020. Does this sound far fetched? possibly, but possibly not. Time will tell, the chart never lies. ########### DISCLAIMER: These are my analysis, my opinion, I give no guarantees and I'm not responsible for any losses that you may occur if you trade this, whether you buy crypto or trade it in the CFD market. If you want to trade this chart, do your own analysis and make sure you have a good money management plan in place. If you want to learn more about trading, here is a good place to start: babypips dot com I generally post my own analysis in BTMM format, although I am proficient in Crypto Patterns, Gartleys, Butterflies, Pattern Trading, Elliott Wave Trading, Pitchfork , Trendline , VSA and Price Action trading, for which I may from time to time post additional analysis including some of these other methods. I don't answer to bullies, trolls or charlatans. I don't have time to debate you so if you write babble, I will ignore you. Post a proper analysis, but don't post a blank chart with words or claim you are a 'WE' and have some magical algorithm or secret, then I might answer you. I'm posting this chart here for my own personal record and to share with those that may appreciate it, with the hope that it can help someone. ###########
BITFINEX:XRPUSD
by UnknownUnicorn4938033
3
BTC Flippening: Roadmap for 8K, 12K, and beyond.This sort of sums up all the targets being called out from on high, but in a way that combines fractal flipping, chart patterns, and waves. We were all expecting something big on September 11, but nothing happened. Or maybe BTC flipped again. The flip traces sort of a mirror image of previous prices. Looking at a chart patterns site, it was intuitive to visualize how well the broadening bottom pattern would fit the BTC flip hypothesis. It would form a symmetrical fractal ending on December 24, repainting previous big moves in crypto. The points are not random. They fall on the Friday of each week. Why Friday? Because that's payday, when the weekend starts. Friday is the day stock options expire worthless for 90% of retail traders. It's a day when institutions have taken that money and moved markets many times before. It seemed necessary to predict prices going low enough to take out stops, and then bouncing up for a bull trap before committing to larger down moves. Expect the unexpected in the short term. And then zoom out to see how it all fits. Institutions and CFDs seem to enjoy painting obvious daily patterns like these on charts for their trading educators to stand on. They entice undisciplined speculators to open margin accounts for 100x wreckage on small moves. The tops and bottoms coincide with support and resistance levels extrapolated from previous price action and are not set in stone. But it would be interesting to see how many are hit. And there is still plenty of room for doombear barts in the holiday aftermath with their jaunty 1-2K predictions.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Hellork
1