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Lowe (NYSE: $LOW) Report's Q2 2024 Earnings ResultsLowe’s (NYSE: NYSE:LOW ), the second-largest home improvement retailer in the U.S., reported its fiscal second-quarter earnings, highlighting a challenging environment marked by weaker-than-expected DIY sales and broader economic pressures. While the company managed to beat earnings expectations, it missed on revenue and subsequently cut its full-year outlook, reflecting the hurdles it faces in a cooling home improvement market. Earnings Overview For the quarter ending August 2, Lowe’s reported earnings per share (EPS) of $4.10, surpassing Wall Street's expectations of $3.97. However, net sales came in at $23.59 billion, falling short of the $23.91 billion anticipated by analysts. This marks the sixth consecutive quarter of declining sales, underscoring the difficult landscape for home improvement retailers as consumers pull back on discretionary spending. Net income for the quarter dropped to $2.38 billion, or $4.17 per share, down from $2.67 billion, or $4.56 per share, in the same period last year. This decline was somewhat offset by a $43 million pre-tax gain from the sale of Lowe’s Canadian retail business, which added 7 cents to the EPS for the quarter. Declining Sales and Revised Outlook Comparable sales, a key industry metric that excludes the effects of new store openings and closures, declined by 5.1% in the quarter. This was worse than the 4.11% drop analysts had expected, as Lowe’s customers took on fewer DIY projects amid a "pressured macroeconomic environment." The company also cited unfavorable weather conditions as a factor hurting sales, particularly in outdoor and seasonal categories. In response to these challenges, Lowe’s revised its full-year forecast, now expecting total sales between $82.7 billion and $83.2 billion, down from its previous guidance of $84 billion to $85 billion. The company also lowered its expected decline in comparable sales to a range of 3.5% to 4%, compared to the earlier forecast of a 2% to 3% drop. Adjusted earnings per share are now projected to be between $11.70 and $11.90, down from the prior range of $12.00 to $12.30. Economic Headwinds Lowe’s struggles are reflective of broader economic trends affecting the home improvement sector. Higher mortgage rates and increased borrowing costs have dampened demand for new homes, which in turn has weighed on sales at both Lowe’s and its larger rival, Home Depot. In addition, a sense of economic uncertainty has led consumers to adopt a more cautious approach, deferring large home improvement projects and focusing on smaller, essential repairs. Home Depot, which reported its earnings a week earlier, also issued a bleak outlook for the second half of the year, citing similar economic concerns. Both companies are facing the dual challenges of rising costs and weakening consumer demand, making it difficult to sustain the robust growth seen during the pandemic when home improvement projects surged. Technical Aspects From a technical standpoint, Lowe’s is grappling with multiple pressures. The declining sales reflect not just a pullback in consumer spending, but also the impact of higher input costs and a challenging macroeconomic environment. The company’s gross margins are being squeezed as it tries to balance competitive pricing with inflationary pressures on materials and labor. Moreover, Lowe’s online business and sales to home professionals, such as contractors and electricians, have shown some resilience, partially offsetting the declines in DIY sales. However, these segments alone may not be sufficient to counterbalance the broader slowdown in consumer spending on home improvement. Lowe’s has also been investing in its digital and supply chain capabilities to improve efficiency and customer experience. While these investments are critical for long-term growth, they come at a time when the company is facing near-term revenue pressures, creating a delicate balancing act between managing costs and driving future growth. Market Reaction and Outlook Despite the challenges, Lowe’s stock has been relatively resilient, closing at $243.21 on Monday, representing a year-to-date gain of approximately 9%. However, this lags behind the S&P 500’s nearly 18% increase over the same period, indicating that investors are cautious about the company’s near-term prospects. As of the time of writing, Lowe's stock ( NYSE:LOW ) is up 0.58% in Tuesday's premarket trading. As Lowe’s navigates the remainder of 2024, the focus will likely be on managing costs, optimizing its product mix, and leveraging its professional services to stabilize revenue. The revised outlook suggests that Lowe’s is preparing for a tougher second half of the year, with expectations of continued economic uncertainty and subdued consumer demand. In conclusion, while Lowe’s managed to exceed earnings expectations in Q2, the challenges it faces are significant. The cut in full-year guidance reflects the reality of a cooling home improvement market and the broader economic headwinds that are likely to persist in the coming quarters. As the company continues to navigate these challenges, its ability to adapt to changing consumer behaviors and macroeconomic conditions will be critical to sustaining its long-term growth trajectory.
NYSE:LOWLong
by DEXWireNews
RH appears ready to rise from its base LONGRestoration Hardware on the weekly chart rose from COVID and then retraced for almost two years. It appears now ready to experience some investor and trader interest once again. It is rising from the POC line of its long term volume profile. The trend strength indicator just inflected and curled upward. I like to catch trends early to get as much of a move as possible and before the chasing begins. This is a possible megacap short squeeze set up. Targets are 380 and 480 as horizontal levels of importance.
NYSE:RHLong
by AwesomeAvani
Australian dollar slides after CPI stays steadyThe Australian dollar took a hit after Australian inflation was lower than expected. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6493, down 0.78%. Australia’s inflation rate remained steady in January at 3.4% y/y, unchanged from December and below the market estimate of 3.6%. This matched the lowest rate of annual inflation since November 2021. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s preferred core indicator, the trimmed mean, dropped to 3.8%, its lowest level since March 2022. The soft inflation data is an encouraging sign for the Reserve Bank of Australia that its aggressive rate-tightening cycle is keeping inflation in check and the upper level of the 1%-3% target range is not too far off. More importantly, it reduces the likelihood that the RBA will hike rates and raises expectations of two or three rate cuts late in the year. This explains the sharp decline in the Australian dollar today, as lower interest rates would make the Australian dollar less attractive to investors. The RBA has raised rates only once since June 2023 and hasn’t ruled out rate hikes, although the markets believe that this is posturing by the central bank and the tightening cycle is over. Still, the RBA is unlikely to jump on the rate-cut bandwagon until it is convinced that inflation will continue to fall or the strong labour market shows signs of cooling. The next meeting is on March 18th and the RBA is widely expected to maintain rates and continue its “higher for longer” stance. AUD/USD has pushed below support at 0.6584 earlier and is putting pressure on support at 0.6453 0.6526 and 0.6560 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Lowe's (NYSE: LOW) Earnings OverviewOver the last 1 year, LOW has beaten estimates 100% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 75% of the time. Retailers might see their demand softening as consumers could tighten their purse strings as economists expect a slowdown ahead in the backdrop of higher-for-longer interest rates. The market is growing too negative about the housing DIY market, and investors should begin buying Lowe’s Inc Stock. The company had beaten its expectations in its Q2 earnings. Fears on consumer spending are not the only thing the company is battling now. Lowe's had also pointed to a rise in crime as a factor of reduced earnings and noted that the issue could continue to cut into their financial results. In September, the National Retail Foundation reported that in 2022, retail theft rose ~20% from a year earlier. Technical Analysis LOW is trading near the bottom of its 52-week range and below its 200-day simple moving average. What does this mean? Investors have been pushing the share price lower, and the stock still appears to have downward momentum. This is a neutral sign for the stock's future value. ABOUT THE COMPANY Lowe's Companies, Inc. (Lowe's) is a home improvement company. The Company operates home improvement and hardware stores. The Company offers a range of products for maintenance, repair, remodeling and decorating. The Company offers home improvement products in categories, including Appliances, Seasonal and Outdoor Living, Lawn and Garden, Lumber, Kitchens and Bath, Tools, Paint, Millwork, Hardware, Flooring, Rough Plumbing, Building Materials, Decor, Lighting, and Electrical.
NYSE:LOW
by DEXWireNews
RBA expected to pause, US nonfarm payrolls rises slightlyThe Australian dollar has started the week with slight gains. In Monday's European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6464, up 0.21%. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold interest rates at 4.10% when it meets on Tuesday and a rate hike would be a huge surprise. The central bank has paused for two straight meetings and the odds of a third pause stand at 86%, according to the ASX RBA rate tracker. The most important factor in RBA rate policy is of course inflation. In July, CPI fell to 4.9% y/y, down from 5.4% y/y and better than the consensus of 5.2% y/y. Inflation is moving in the right direction and has dropped to its lowest level since February 2022. A third straight pause from the RBA will likely raise expectations that the current rate-tightening cycle is done but I don't believe we're at that point just yet. This is Governor Lowe's final meeting and he is expected to keep the door open to further rate hikes. Incoming Governor Bullock stated last week that the RBA "may still need to raise rates again", adding that the Bank will make its rate decisions based on the data. The RBA isn't anywhere near declaring victory over inflation and has projected that inflation will not fall back within the 2%-3% inflation target until late 2025. The week wrapped up with the US employment report for August. The Fed will be pleased as nonfarm payrolls remained below 200,00 for a third straight month, rising from a revised 157,000 to 187,000. Wage growth fell to 0.2% in August, down from 0.4% in July and below the consensus of 0.3%. The data cements a rate hold at the September 20th meeting, barring a huge surprise from the CPI report a week prior to the rate meeting. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6458. Above, there is resistance at 0.6516 There is support at 0.6395 and 0.6337
by OANDA
Australian dollar takes a tumble as RBA pausesThe Australian dollar continues to swing wildly this week. In Tuesday's European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6630, down 1.30%. On Monday, AUD/USD jumped 1% higher. There were no surprises from the Reserve Bank of Australia, which paused for a second straight month and maintained the cast rate at 4.10%. The money markets had priced in a pause but the Australian dollar still took a nosedive after the decision, as the money markets have lowered the probability of a rate hike in September to below 20%. Recent key data showed that the Australian economy has cooled off, with inflation easing in the second quarter and retail sales for June falling by 0.8%. These numbers provided support for the RBA to take a pause at today's meeting. Still, the argument can be made that with inflation at 6%, double the upper band of the RBA's target range, there is room for further rate hikes. The RBA did not change its inflation outlook, predicting that inflation would not return to the 2%-3% target range before late 2025. Services inflation, which includes rising rent prices, remains sticky and this is a key concern for the central bank. Governor Lowe's rate statement said that future rate decisions "will depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks." This is a reminder that inflation and employment reports will play a key role in determining the RBA's rate path. There is speculation that the RBA is done with tightening, but with inflation still at high levels, Lowe's message to the markets was that further hikes remain on the table. In the US, today's key event is ISM Manufacturing PMI. The manufacturing sector remains in the doldrums and has been in decline since October, with readings below the 50.0 level. In June, the Manufacturing PMI slipped to 46.0, the lowest level since May 2020. Another decline is expected for July, with a consensus estimate of 46.8 points. AUD/USD has pushed below support at 0.6697. Below, there is resistance at 0.6573 There is resistance at 0.6771 and 0.6875
by OANDA
AUD/USD extends losses, RBA minutes next, Lowe is outThe Australian dollar has started the week in negative territory. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6816, down 0.32%. The Aussie is coming off a banner week, with gains of 2.18% against the US dollar. The Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes of the July 4th meeting on Tuesday. At that meeting, the RBA took a pause and maintained the cash rate at 4.10%. The burning question is whether interest rate levels have peaked. The markets are more confident that the RBA is leaning towards another pause in August, with a 75% probability of a 25-bp hike in August, compared to 48% just a week ago. The RBA has based its rate decisions on key economic data, in particular, inflation and employment reports. Thursday's employment report will be a key factor in the RBA rate decision. If the employment numbers are stronger than expected, we'll likely see the markets revise higher the probability of a rate hike in August. There was a feeling in the air that RBA Governor Lowe would be shown the front door, and the axe came down on Friday. Lowe has been heavily criticised for assurances he made as late as November 2021 that he would not raise rates until 2024, only to embark on an aggressive rate-hike campaign soon after. The RBA's zig-zagging of rate hikes and pauses hurt the central bank's credibility, and a recent review of the RBA found that major structural changes were needed. Add a 7% inflation level to the mix, and it's not difficult to see why the government decided that a change was needed at the helm of the RBA. There is resistance at 0.6855 and 0.6947 0.6786 and 0.6676 are providing support
by OANDA
AUD/USD remains red hot and is trading at 3-week highThe Australian dollar continues to sizzle and has climbed 1.04% on Thursday, after rising 1.56% a day earlier. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6857, close to a 3-week high. Inflation remains the Reserve Bank of Australia's number one priority and Thursday's inflation expectations release vindicated the RBA's concern that inflation expectations are well anchored. The Melbourne Institute Inflation Expectations for July were unchanged at 5.2% and a notch higher than the consensus estimate of 5.1%. High inflation expectations can translate into inflation rising, which would force the RBA to continue raising interest rates. RBA Governor Lowe spoke on Wednesday. The speech dealt with RBA policy but any investors looking for insights into rate policy walked away disappointed. Lowe said that the full effects of high rates were yet to be felt and it remained to be seen if more hikes would be required. US inflation dropped lower than the estimate and that sent the US dollar broadly lower on Wednesday. Headline inflation fell from 4.0% y/y to 3.0%, and critically, the core rate dropped to 4.8%, down from 5.3%. Both readings were lower than the forecast and point to inflation continuing to move in the right direction. The inflation numbers were good, but likely not good enough to convince the Fed to pause at the July 27th meeting. The Fed is widely expected to raise rates at the July meeting but the positive inflation data has also raised the likelihood of a pause at the September meeting. There is a possibility that the Fed's rate-tightening cycle is finally over, but that will depend on economic data, particularly employment and inflation reports in the coming months. AUD/USD put pressure on resistance at 0.6878 earlier. This is followed by resistance at 0.6944 0.6772 and 0.6682 are providing support
by OANDA
AUD/USD hits one-month high, Chinese inflation eyedThe Australian dollar has bounced back on Thursday after losing ground on Wednesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6681, up 0.42% on the day. The Australian dollar touched a high of 0.6690 on Wednesday, its highest level in a month. The RBA surprised the markets with a rate hike on Wednesday, noting that inflation had unexpectedly risen in April and GDP in the first quarter was higher than the RBA had predicted. The RBA statement said that more tightening might be needed "to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe". Lowe was even more candid in remarks at a public engagement on Wednesday, saying that the Bank has been patient in the battle to get inflation back to the 2-3% target "but our patience has a limit and the risks are testing that limit.” Lowe appeared to be referring to the upside risk in inflation, and he could be hinting at a "higher and longer" stance with rate policy until inflation returns closer to target. Inflation has peaked, but at the current level of 7%, Lowe may be sending a message that inflation is falling far too slowly and he's prepared to keep raising rates, even if this results in a hard landing for the economy. China will release inflation data on Friday. Inflation is projected to rise to 0.3% in May, up from 0.1% in April. An improvement from the April reading would reduce concerns that China could be facing disinflation and may have to respond by cutting interest rates. On Wednesday, China released soft trade data, which showed exports fell by 7.5%. This has raised doubts about China's economic recovery. The Australian dollar, which is highly sensitive to Chinese data, lost ground following the release. AUD/USD continues to test resistance at 0.6677. Above, there is resistance at 0.6749 There is support at 0.6568 and 0.6496
by OANDA
Aussie dips after soft wage dataThe Australian dollar has extended its losses on Wednesday. In North American trade, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6824, down 0.47%. Australian wage growth was short of the forecast, with a gain of 0.8% q/q in Q4 2020. This was down from 1.1% in Q3 and below the forecast of 1.0%. Annual wage growth rose to 3.3%, up from 3.2% but below the estimate of 3.5%. This will be welcome news to the RBA, which is concerned that high inflation could lead to a price-wage spiral that would entrench inflation expectations and complicate efforts to curb inflation. The RBA has hiked interest rates by 325 basis points in the current cycle but the battle against inflation rages on. Inflation rose to 7.8% in Q4 2022, its highest level since March 1990. The central bank's steep tightening is yet to curb inflation, and Lowe faced criticism of his rate policy when he appeared before a parliamentary committee last week. Lowe told the lawmakers that high inflation was "dangerous" and reiterated that future rate moves would be data-driven. The cash rate is currently at 3.35% and the markets have priced a peak rate of 4.1%. The RBA has signalled that more rate hikes are coming and we're likely to see a 25-basis point hike for a fifth straight time at the March meeting, barring some unexpected data. All eyes are on the Federal Reserve, which will release the minutes of its February meeting later on Wednesday. The Fed raised rates by 25 bp, but investors will be interested in the extent of support for a 50-bp hike at the meeting as a clue what to expect from the March 22 meeting. It was only a few weeks ago that the markets were confident that the March meeting would provide a 'one and done' rate increase and the Fed would cut rates late in the year. The blowout employment report, a strong retail sales release and higher-than-expected inflation have changed that narrative. The markets have moved closer to the Fed's hawkish stance, and Goldman Sachs and the Bank of America are projecting three more rate hikes in 2023. AUD/USD has support at 0.6784 and 0.6690 There is resistance at 0.6907 and 0.7001
by OANDA
AUD/USD sinks on hawkish LoweIt has been a disastrous session for AUD/USD, which has plunged 1.26% and is trading at 0.6899. RBA Governor Philip Lowe faced a grilling from Australian lawmakers earlier. Higher rates and high inflation have caused a cost-of-living crisis and the RBA has been heavily criticised for the sharp rate-tightening cycle. Lowe confirmed that more rate hikes were on the way due to the need to curb inflation. Lowe warned that the battle against inflation was paramount, saying high inflation could lead to an increase in inflation expectations which would result in higher rates and more unemployment. Inflation is running at 7.8%, the highest level in over 40 years, which Lowe said was "way too high". Australia will release employment data on Thursday. The economy is estimated to have created 20,000 new jobs in January, following a decline of 14,600. The US will release January retail sales later today. Headline retail sales is expected to rebound with a 1.8% gain while core retail sales is forecast to rise 1.1%. Both releases came in at -1.1% in December, so a strong showing would be bullish for the US dollar. The markets have been dovish about the Fed's rate policy on the assumption that the economy is weakening, but the blowout employment report and an inflation release that was higher than expected have forced investors to rethink expectations that the Fed will pivot and cut rates later this year. A strong retail sales report would support the Fed's hawkish stance of "higher for lower" and possibly a higher terminal rate than previously expected. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6962. Below, there is support at 0.6846 0.7036 and 0.7143 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
AUD/USD falls on strong US jobs dataThe Australian dollar is in negative territory today. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6739. down 0.43%. US unemployment claims fell to a 3-month low, another indication that the US job market remains robust. Initial unemployment claims fell to 222 thousand, down from 228 thousand and well below the estimate of 240 thousand. This is the fourth straight week that claims have fallen, and the release comes after a nonfarm payroll gain of 315 thousand, which was slightly stronger than expected. For the Federal Reserve, strong employment data is crucial, as a resilient labour market means that the Fed can continue to raise rates aggressively. Economic growth contracted in the first and second quarters, but strong job numbers are an indication that the economy is not in recession. RBA Governor Lowe said on Thursday that the RBA would need to raise interest rates at least twice more to contain the "scourge" of inflation. Lowe admitted that the pace of inflation had surprised the RBA and other central banks. Lowe pointed a finger at the Ukraine war, blaming higher energy prices as one of the drivers of higher inflation in Australia. The cash rate is currently at 2.35% and Lowe said that the pace and extent of rate hikes would be data-dependent. As the cash rate moves higher, there is a stronger likelihood of the RBA easing up, which means that October can be expected to bring a rate hike of 0.25% or 0.50%. The terminal rate should peak early in 2023, at around 3.35%. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6737. Below, there is support at 0.6661 There is resistance at 0.6737 and 0.6846
by OANDA
1
ridethepig | Aussie for the Yearly Close📌 AUD for the Yearly Close It seems a good choice of the moment to also progress with the Commodity Currencies next, the characteristic of the next macro themes are going to be coming from shortages on supply side and we can dissect how to configure that into currencies and in accordance with the previous diagrams. AUD has freed some space above for the coming months and quarters, the 0.813x initial target is interesting to note how the opportunity for capitulation of sellers arises, the breach will unlock the 'inverse' of a waterfall concept that we are now discussing in USD; With enormous complications for commodities coming, after a few more mistakes from politicians, AUD will be one of the main winners in the moves. In the next flows, 0.950x and 1.097x are clear extensions but until we can crack through the 0.813x soft resistance are only considered skeletons in the closet for now. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | Dovish RBNZ Pricing & Commodity Shortages📍 RBNZ formula So what are we trading here? In this position it would be an obvious mistake to not acknowledge risk sentiment worsening over the weekend as cases continue to escalate, clearly the market is exposed to the storm (that is to say the series of localised lockdowns are a done-deal, the only question remains whether it becomes more widespread). On the monetary side, the correct flow to shelter from if things materially worsen (sadly looks inevitable) is the dovish RBNZ. After the latest meetings they have opened the window for a game changer on the stimulus front coming in August (via lowering domestic borrowing costs). Consider the situation on the AUD side of the equation: Commodity shortages are entering back into play via the Covid shock which is a prelude towards the monetary crisis. Gold, Iron Ore, Copper and etc all look set for further advance; it will keep the basis for some action to the topside in AUD via collateral. Here tracking closely 0.677x in AUDUSD and 0.637x in NZD as the line in sand for the cross. Look to ride AUDNZD up towards the 1.12 macro targets. As usual thanks all for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | AUD Macro Updates Via Coronavirus ImpactOn the macro chart we are still chopping around the same lows that will mark the ending of a currency cycle alongside a turn in commodities. The coronavirus expectation and impact legs are short-circuiting the reflationary trade that markets were so eager to jump on board with towards the back-end of 2019. Sadly numbers outside of China keep growing and economic impact is entering under the spotlight. As long as things do not improve on the virus front we are going to see a major flush down in AUD and continuation of the same USD bid. Tracking closely the open today, smells like Tokyo are going to ring the risk alarms. A rather wild week on the technical side after a significant break through the 0.670x support, this is unlocking a test of 0.645x RBA floor via rate differential. This move looks particularly vulnerable considering where we are with Copper and Iron ore: Good luck all those in AUD or looking to add positions. Actively looking to add shorts on any spikes into 0.670x or even front running with 0.668x, a waterfall breakdown is in play until we will see some local exporter buying interest which is initially found at 0.645x and 0.632x.
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | AUDNZD Breaking Higher !!A superb time to update the AUDNZD chart after a fresh technical breakup yesterday. The Q4 prints from antipodeans is very positive and actually triggering a slightly hawkish tilt by the RBA. Despite the brutal domestic story in Australia with bushfires and coronavirus spillovers, Scott Morrison has done the heavy lifting via housing policies. There is a lot of AUD shorts to be unwound by leveraged retailers creating a massive upside in AUDNZD with a supportive price driver. The hawkish shift by RBA is subtle and not visible by the naked eye, there is not a single mention of coronavirus spillover effects on growth and if anything emphasis on just how temporary the impacts are. For the technical picture things are a lot clearer in the medium term (see diagram below): This is clearly rallying towards the 1.07-1.08 area as the bottom is defined and established. For the short-term the picture is a little more complex (as we have RBNZ on the wires this week), the double bottom set-up in play will imply a minimum flow towards 1.065x. Don't forget to keep the likes and comments rolling in!
Long
by ridethepig
2
BoC Cuts & RBA Hold - AUDCAD Double Whammy!Highlights overnight going to AUD with overshoots in the U-rate as expected. This number is going to trigger the RBA surprise hold that we have been tracking in this diagram: Large hands spotted on the AUD bid last ear and will continue to do so as a lot more unwinding of positions needs to take place from those betting on FURTHER rate cuts. Tracking 0.692x in AUDUSD as a sensible target from the initial knee-jerk reaction. The strategy for the flows from the AUD side in the chart have been dissected here in this diagram: On the CAD side , Poloz caught me by surprise with a very dovish BoC. This was particularly surprising considering his pokerface at the fireside chat only two weeks ago! Focus now shifts onto whether this will be a “one off” cut…in my books the move in USDCAD should be contained by the 1.32 handle - the data (although below par) is not weak enough to justify a full blown cutting cycle. On the positioning side , long and medium term flows are still betting heavily long CAD so expect 1.32xx to provide a good opportunity to re-engage with a swing back towards 1.28xx later in the year as those longs from the recent rally begin to unwind. Good luck all those in AUDCAD and holding for the long-term, this is going to the highs like a knife through butter. As usual, thanks for all the support with likes, comments, charts and etc !!
Long
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | AUD Market Commentary 2020.01.16AUD and NZD will continue to trade tight ranges after mixed data from NZ overnight. 📊 Chart of the day 📊is going to NZDUSD: Market is clearly presenting another very good opportunity to cover 0.664/6x and initially target 0.660x. In AUDUSD same drill as before, tracking 0.692x for a similar move back towards 0.685x lows in the range. This idea is no less imaginative than the previous call for inside range trading: Good luck all those in AUD and NZD for the coming sessions, as usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc. Jump into the conversation with your charts and idea on AUD & NZD.
Short
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | AUD Market Commentary 2020.01.10Ending the week with instructive profit taking from bulls in exemplary fashion....Average hourly earnings disappointing but nothing to write home about. Highlights in the report going to manufacturing jobs getting crushed via protectionism and those maintaining longs now have a free hand to play the next short-term swing. I love it when USD goes for a walk. The move in play for the coming sessions and looks difficult to defend against. I am tracking 0.6925x to prevent the breakup for bulls this week and trigger profit taking. After an exchange of direction flanking works decisively well and the execution timing-wise is of importance. For those tracking the 2020 AUD Macro map and digging into the fundamental side I would highly recommend checking the following diagram: Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc. If you have any questions/charts as usual jump into the comments and we can open the conversations. Good luck all those in AUD.
Short
by ridethepig
6
ridethepig | AUD Market Commentary 2020.01.09AUD completing the retrace and starting to form support as Trump confirms the end of the circus. Australian local macro prints have started to improve, particularly in the housing sector and on the trade side. For the menu tonight we have retail sales in play and a leg back towards 0.69x looks imminent. On the macro side, RBA expected to cut once more in Feb to 0.5% and the rate cycle is already over. If data continues to improve and follow the solid unemployment prints we saw last week, then they will have missed the boat to cut once more as income tax cut later in the year. This will be enough to keep AUD in bid over 2020 and 2021 with a clean zig zag trading-wise. While the multi-year chart is crystal clear: Here AUDNZD would be worth thinking about increasing long exposure in order to follow up the coming RBNZ intervention / AUD outperformance leg. However, this plan to attack the highs is currently impossible, because AUD markets are still pricing a move from RBA in Feb. The correct manoeuvre, despite all counters will come from the AUD side: We will do a deep dive into the USD side with NFP tomorrow for the flows in the live telegram with a round of chart updates and strategy outlooks. GL all those in AUDUSD, thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments rolling in!
Long
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | AUDNZD Finding A Floor?Here AUDNZD would be worth thinking about increasing long exposure in order to follow up the coming RBNZ intervention / AUD outperformance leg. However, this plan to attack the highs is currently impossible, because AUD markets are still pricing a move from RBA in Feb. The correct manoeuvre, despite all counters will come from the AUD side: NZD is well blockaded in the 2020 map: AUD on the other hand has catching up to do: I often consider the lows as the stem game for my new philosophy in the swing. As can be viewed here, bears are constantly trying to force its opponent to surrender the lows. This sort of tendency, which toys with the idea of what is happening is cooking what I call a surprise strategy. The move will come from AUD data overshooting and taking RBA off Feb off the table, this will close the cycle in monetary policy and mark the official transition into the next chapter of economics. We are trading the second leg in the swing: GL all those in AUDNZD, thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments rolling in. Feel free to post your charts and ideas in the comments.
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | AUD 2019 In ReviewHere we go with an update to AUD as we enter in 1H20. Consumers remain the key to the flows here, in my books markets overpriced odds of another cut from RBA in Feb 2020 ahead of income tax cuts in the middle of the year to stimulate the recovery. After RBNZ surprise hold in Q419, NZD was able to sustain a strong bid. After AUD unemployment came in better than expected, smart money is tracking for the same course of action from RBA and AUD. The shape of the Long-term Macro chart: The housing market continues to rise with a lack of supply entering into expectation plays by 2021 via declining vacancies and higher rental prices. The low rates will act as a catalyst for price growth. On the Corporate side , with PBoC using AUD to arbitrage the trade war business investment will continue to pick up in 2020. Scott Morrison will keep public infrastructure at high levels, while the weaker AUD in 2019 will continue to help exports. Unemployment has shown signs of improving, spare capacity will last till end 2021 and keep inflation via wages benign. This is supportive of RBA remaining on hold and here betting on no further easing as long as macro conditions show signs of improvement and stability. Dollar bear case: Australia / New Zealand: Forecast summary We can continue to update this thread over the coming Weeks, Months and Quarters so feel free to jump in with your idea generation to further the discussion for all. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!!
Long
by ridethepig
1