Lpsy — Trading Ideas on TradingView

Wyckoff Distribution Unfolding: UTAD Confirmed, LPSY In Progress The 4H BTC/USDT chart presents a textbook Wyckoff Distribution structure nearing completion: • Buying Climax (BC) defined the supply ceiling • Secondary Test (ST) confirmed resistance zone • Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) swept above 106K, trapping late breakout buyers • Price is now back at triangle support, potentially forming Last Point of Supply (LPSY) Technical Snapshot (4H): • Current Price: 102,540 • Bollinger Bands: ▸ Upper: 105,400 ▸ Basis: 103,522 ▸ Lower: 101,884 • 55 SMA: 103,642 • RSI: 44.85 (bearish momentum) • Volume: Red bars rising, above 23.7K MA What to Watch For: A confirmed close below the triangle apex and lower Bollinger Band, with RSI below 45 and increased volume, would solidify the LPSY and trigger a likely markdown phase. Until then, the structure remains vulnerable but unconfirmed. Bearish Targets (if breakdown confirms): • TP1: 100,678 (horizontal + psychological) • TP2: 99,595–98,115 (Fib retracement zone) • TP3: Trail below breakdown with 1% callback logic Wyckoff Perspective: This appears to be Phase C, following a clear UTAD. If LPSY forms and support breaks, the market transitions into Phase D with accelerated markdown potential. Holding here may imply range extension or reaccumulation — next 1–2 candles are pivotal.

Confluence at 34k While OBV looks shit and PnF points to 31.500, there's confluence at 34k. Would you bet on it? Personally i won't. We are at mark down phase of wyckoff distribution. Better be late to the party than show up at someone elses party.

Will 50k Hold?Hi all, Bitcoin managed to cloas the week above 50k. While this physcological level gives comfort, the real resistance is at the weekly 51.791 and we are below that level. That said, consolidating under resistance is considered bullish, however, we don't know how price will react after passing this level. The wyckoff distribution i have pointed out in my previous analysis still holds and if it plays out, we are looking at a LPSY moment as of now. The upward moves are quite weak, not triggering any of my TOTT signals (and i have many) So, longing here now would mean longing in to resistance, which is never a good idea. Last time i warned about this was at 67k :) Ofcourse it doesn't have to be the same, but given FED has declared the timeline for tapering and interest rate hikes by the end of March, i think we'll see a play until that time, but we don't know what composite man is about to play. Again, i think it's a mega distribution since last year October. Patience is the most important skill to have right now. If you are long, use a stop loss or reduce your risk. As always trade safe.

66.666 Devil has it's own signature :) And 66.666 came up couple of times during the last week. This time it matches the mid-line of the upward channel. Don't get me wrong, i didn't work around this number, it was just very close to the intersections. So, my previous analysis is still in play and should this be a distribution, we will reverse at around 66.666 and complete the LPSY event with a reversal all the way down to the POC of the trading range at 61k where the most liquidity awaits and my long setup comes in to play. The bounce will be very critical as it should be a weak one that will fail at 63.333 (look at these numbers, i'm not hand picking them) So the long setup i gave yesterday is quite a tricky one that you should know when to exit or not! If 63k fails after the bounce and we loose the SOW at 57.820, the downside would be quite brutal, down to 57k first and 49-50k as the final target. If 63k holds, then this could be the shakeout before the breakout! So, the rest of November could be bloody as hell, where every bitcoiner meets the devil until the last stop gets hit. This scenario invalidates if we get a daily close above the mid channel (thick blue line) and move above towards the ATH. And then... 100k by new year / 144k early next year is still in play, just not in a straight line :) PS. There are a couple of sell the news event for today, taproot activation and Biden's infrastructure bill signature are both long time waited events. I don't trade the news, but the price has almost reached the critical levels too. So, don't long into the resistance! As always trade safe and use stop loss.

XRP/USDT Reaccumulation!Hello my beauties. I think that XRP/USDT is in a phase of reaccumulation, so I will be waiting for the price to retest demand and confirm the schematics to take a long trade. The arrows do not indicate exact price, rather the events that would take place in case the reaccumulation has been read correctly. If you find this idea to be helpful like, follow, and drop a comment below if you'd want me to analyse a different pair. Consider supporting me if you think I am providing you with value. Peace. Luca, TrickleDownFX

USD 1 hr Wyckoff distribution!Hello my beauties. I think that the USD might be distributing, on a 1hr chart we are looking at a LPSY, the moment before a Markdown (impulsive move towards the downside). If you find this idea to be helpful like, follow, and drop a comment below if you'd want me to analyse a different pair. Consider supporting me if you think I am providing you with value. Peace. Luca, TrickleDownFX

Weekly Perspective For The Pump We are all obsessed with the direction of price which we can't control and don't care enough attention to what we can control, such as our position sizing and action plan if the certain targets are met. That's why i'm always providing my bullish targets and i'll review these on a weekly perspective. We just got a pump on the last 2 hours before daily close with low volume (does that look eal to you?). This is the expected short term move i mentioned in my previous post. Remember, price follows liquidation and that's what's happening to late shorters now, unlike me - the early shorter at 40k :) They are getting squeezed because they sold at support in a red candle. So always sell on a green candle when everyone is bullish at the top! Right now the first resistance above sits at historically strong weekly level 34.678 and the support below at February Low 32.328 And the game is about the monthly close. If we get monthly close: - Above Feb Low 32.328, i'll consider this a sign of strength - NOT before. - Above 34.678 the weekly resistance, i'll consider this bullish - NOT before. But we still have one week until the monthly close. If we get above May Close at 37.253 or even 36.500 next week , it's a bullish sign. If these happen to be true, then the re-distribution may get invalidated. While i don't think these will happen, it still can happen and i can't control this. But i have an action plan based on these targets and that's what matters. Apart from the bullish targets, you want to look at the relationship between UTAD (Upthrust after distribution) in April and LPSY (Last Point Of Supply) in May. Everybody turned bullish by the end of April and thought we were going to 100k. In reality, this was the LPSY in the overbought condition before the huge markdown. Now look at the UTAD in June. The same LPSY could be in the making before going down to 20k's if not lower. I took the UTAD levels as the touching points of the down trend channel (blue zone) and extended up to LPSY for the overbought area (gray zone). That is why i'm not turning bullish unless the price gets above the gray zone and it's a moving target. Best. PS. We got a reversal bar on the P&f chart as well. I'll send an update from that post.

2 Weeks Of Bam Bam Loading...Not much to say, unless we rally up and break above $37k, the next 2 weeks will be a blood bath! What if it does not stop there?