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M2moneysupply

Bitcoin analysis based on market liquidity and M2 money supply This trade enters Bitcoin in the $101,500–$102,200 zone, aiming to capture a high-probability bounce from a dense liquidity pocket formed by recent long liquidations. This region has historically acted as a bull market reaccumulation zone, typically holding after 5–8% drawdowns during major trend continuations. The trade is structured to ride a macro continuation leg toward $125,000, targeting the next major expansion phase driven by both short squeezes (clustered above $106K) and a broader surge in demand following increasing M2 money supply and institutional inflows. The stop-loss is placed at $97,000, a deliberate distance below local support but above the deeper liquidity sweep zone at $89K–$92K. That level is unlikely to be reached unless the market undergoes a full liquidation cascade, which would likely bypass $97K altogether in a fast move. This stop protects against structural failure while avoiding premature exits in normal volatility. The setup is designed for maximum reward with acceptable risk, offering a risk-reward ratio of over 4:1, and aligns with the thesis that Bitcoin is entering its final acceleration phase toward a new macro high.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by mattynewman
BTC - Is history repeating itself with the M2 money supply?The expansion of the M2 money supply generally leads to increased liquidity in the market. As more money circulates, it must find a home, and some of it inevitably flows into speculative assets like Bitcoin. In previous cycles, when the money supply increased, Bitcoin tended to benefit from the added liquidity, which often drove up its price—especially during periods of strong demand. In short, a larger M2 supply means more money is available for assets like Bitcoin, potentially pushing its price higher. The Global M2 Money Supply and Bitcoin: A Closer Look Lately, I’ve come across comparisons of the global money supply and Bitcoin's price movements, often accompanied by charts showing a clear correlation. The conclusion drawn is that when global M2 supply rises, Bitcoin’s price follows after a brief lag. But is this conclusion accurate? Let’s take a deeper dive into the matter. Global M2 Supply and Bitcoin in the Current Cycle In this cycle, the global M2 supply is steadily increasing to new highs. After each dip, Bitcoin has mirrored this with a corresponding drop. Currently, Bitcoin seems to lag behind the global M2 supply by approximately 80 days. The question is: is Bitcoin ready to follow the M2 supply increase and reach new highs? If you look at the current cycle, the answer would be yes, indeed. However, when examining past cycles, this conclusion becomes more uncertain. Let’s explore why. Global M2 Supply and Bitcoin in Previous Cycles (2017/2018 and 2020/2021) In 2018, the global M2 supply continued to rise even after Bitcoin reached its peak. This could be a warning sign for this cycle. While many are forecasting higher Bitcoin prices due to the rise in the global M2 supply, it’s important to note that this doesn’t always translate into higher asset prices. In the 2021 cycle, the global M2 money supply continued to rise until early 2022. However, Bitcoin had already reached its cycle top and was entering the early stages of a bear market. This highlights a key point: the increase in M2 supply doesn’t always guarantee further price increases in Bitcoin. Conclusion While the global M2 supply is rising this cycle, and Bitcoin has mirrored that growth, there are reasons to be cautious. The global M2 supply has reached new highs, but we must be careful not to assume that this will automatically lead to new highs for Bitcoin. In the past two cycles, the bear market had already begun while the M2 supply continued to rise. Therefore, it's important not to get stuck on the idea that Bitcoin’s price must rise simply because the global M2 supply is increasing. Thanks for your support. - Make sure to follow me so you don't miss out on the next analysis! - Drop a like and leave a comment! Lets chat in the comment section. See you there :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Youriverse
17
Global M2 Money Supply Vs BTCSo when we look just at the Global M2 money supply, we can see its increasing and sharply. However, when you look at BTC, BTC is lagging behind, and the increase in M2 Global supply has yet to have an effect on BTC where we would expect to see a price increase as M2 money supply increases. If you compare the M2 Global money supply against S&P500 though, it tells us a different story, where the S&P is leading and BTC is lagging. Signalling to me a catch up in BTC is inevitable at this stage and its being squeezed at these levels as money flow increases. A good signs imo and no doubt BTC catches up to S&P500
by marshyyy
Global M2 Money Supply Vs S&P500So when we look just at the Global M2 money supply, we can see its increasing and sharply. However, when you look at BTC, BTC is lagging behind, and the increase in M2 Global supply has yet to have an effect on BTC where we would expect to see a price increase as M2 money supply increases. If you compare the M2 Global money supply against S&P500 though, it tells us a different story, where the S&P is leading and BTC is lagging. Signalling to me a catch up in BTC is inevitable at this stage and its being squeezed at these levels as money flow increases. A good signs imo and no doubt BTC catches up to S&P500
BLACKBULL:SPX500Long
by marshyyy
1
Macro Monday 8 - S&P500/M2 Money SupplyMACRO MONDAY 8 S&P500 / M2 Money Supply ( SP:SPX / $WMN2S) M2 is a broad measure of the US money supply that includes cash, checking deposits, and other types of deposits that are readily convertible to cash such as CDs. M2 is seen as a reliable metric for forecasting/predicting inflation and for this reason it can be used as leading economic indicator. For example, when there is more cash made available or too much, more cash typically gets spent. A little more can be good, too much or too sudden an increase can increase the risk of inflation. That's why the Federal Reserve constricts the money supply when inflation rears its ugly head. At present the Federal Reserve is decreasing the M2 Money supply in an effort to slow down spending in order to control and reduce the rate of inflation. Since April 2022 the M2 Money Supply has reduced from $22 Trillion down to $20.82 Trillion. The money supply and its impact on Inflation combined with current interest rates has major ramifications for the general economy, as they heavily influence job availability, consumer spending, business investment, currency strength, and trade balance. The M2 Money Supply also has a major impact on the stock market and can act as catalyst for increased purchases of stocks (when the money supply is increasing as more money is available) and can also cause the selling of stock when money supply is tight or tightening as it is at present (as less money is available in the wider economy). The Chart – Accounting for Money Supply As noted above the M2 Money Supply is reducing and it is expected that this may result in the S&P500 making lower lows as the supply of money continues to contract. The S&P500 performance looks very different when it is adjusted to account for the increases and decreases of the money supply. We can achieve this by dividing the S&P500 by the M2 Money Supply (Chart 1). Chart 1 – S&P / M2 Money Supply - Since 1996 the Major Resistance Zone has stopped every progression higher. - In 2007 a rejection from the resistance zone resulted in the Great Financial Crisis - Major recessions are labelled with red arrows & market corrections with blue arrows. - Since GFC there have been a number of rejections from the resistance zone which have coincided with notable corrections for the S&P500 (see blue arrows). - The most notable of these rejections was the COVID Crash in March 2020. - We are at the resistance zone now and it appears we are struggling to breach above it and may be rejected again. Given we have been rejected by this level 5 times since the 2007 Great Financial Crisis, it seems wise to remain cautious and expect a rejection from this level again. Chart 2 – S&P500 & M2 Money supply (Segregated) - This chart shows you the S&P price action in isolation and underneath the M2 Money Supply for reference. - The declining M2 Money supply is like a weight or float pushing and pulling the S&P500 price action in its direction. - The M2 Money supply may gravitate down towards its long term trend line over the coming year(s) and one would expect the S&P500 to follow its lead and also gravitate lower. - Interestingly, on Chart 2 you can see that the level that the M2 Money Supply and the S&P500 were at prior to the pandemic would present an S&P500 price tag of $3,350. Summary Its seems unlikely that the S&P500 is about to break higher due to the overhead long term resistance zone on Chart 1 which helped predict the last two recessions (red arrows) and a handful of corrections (blue arrows). There is a strong likelihood of continued M2 Money Supply normalization towards its long term trend line on Chart 2, especially considering Federal Reserves continued efforts to constrict the money supply through quantitative tightening to help quell inflation. These efforts will likely subdue any attempt of positive price action on the S&P500. It is important to recognise that the Dot Com Bubble in 2000 pressed through the resistance zone on Chart 1 demonstrating just how big a bubble it was. It was initially rejected from the resistance zone in March 1997, however the M2 Money Supply was increasing at this time so whilst this outcome is always possible, it does not presently seem probable with M2 Money supply decreasing and likely continuing to decrease going forward. Another potential outcome is a false break out above the resistance zone on Chart 1. We have had an unprecedented increase in to the money supply since the March 2020 COVID Crash and this could have a lagging effect which eventually pushes us over the resistance zone. Fiscal Stimulus which is harder to predict could also help us arrive at this scenario. Regardless, if these circumstances are met with continued decreasing M2 Money Supply, I believe that it would be a short lived breach of the resistance zone resulting in maybe a $4,980 S&P500 price tag (a higher high) followed by a severe correction. That is IF M2 Money supply is still decreasing as the S&P500 makes those higher highs. And finally we have to consider what most people would consider to be the most unrealistic scenario, a Dot Com Style bubble towards the top red line on Chart 1. As improbable as this is, a combination of factors could lead us into this scenario; - The aforementioned lagging effects of the unprecedented never before seen increase in the M2 Money Supply since the pandemic. - Continued or new Fiscal Stimulus from the US government. - The bullish AI narrative (which appears to be dissipating at present) This final bullish scenario is worthy of consideration especially factoring in the comparisons of the 2023 AI hype to the 2000 internet boom. As we enter a new technological epoch with the likes of Augmented Reality, Cryptocurrencies and AI, are we getting ahead of ourselves again? Do these technologies need a little more time to mature much like the internet? Are we overextended like we were in 2000? It’s hard to answer no to any of these questions but against the backdrop of record levels of Quantitative Easing and Fiscal Stimulus we have to keep an open mind as the Fed tries to simmer us down from these record levels of liquidity It will be very interesting to watch these charts over coming weeks and months to see if we get our anticipated rejection from the resistance zone on Chart 1. A special mention to Ben Cowen from "Intothecryptoverse" who originally brought this style chart to my attention. My chart could be considered a snapshot of his view however I hope I have added to it in some way with the above commentary and some correlations I have noticed. Thank you for reading to the end. I hope these charts help frame todays market for you going forward. I’ll keep you posted on any major changes. PUKA
SP:SPX
by PukaCharts