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M2SL

Gold Spot to $2600 by 2024Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) is forming an immature cup and handle on the monthly with a price target of $2600. On the weekly, we see it has broken above this triangle as you see in the chart below. That move is not confirmed yet either, but if next week, gold trades above this week's close, then we set a price target of $2060 and set a stop loss below the recent low. Charting Gold versus M2 Money Supply, we see gold hitting a historical low of 2007 which has supported the price many times between 2007 and today where it remains a strong support. Let me know what you think. Leave comments and if you like, leave a like. Cheers.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TechNerdOmar
Real interests at historical low - S&P500/M2SL at big resistanceHi folks! I just tried to take a broader perspective on things again, and wanted to take a look at the pricing of the S&P500 relative to the M2 Money Supply, as well as the effect of real interest rates on markets. Note that the orange line here is the negative of the real interest rates - that is, . My takes are these: (1) The S&P500 relative to the M2 (broad -i.e. including credit) money supply is at a critical level given historical data - only once have this level of resistance broken (during the dotcom bubble). (2) The real interest rate have NEVER been this negative - with current rates even beating those of the 70´s and 80´s. (3) (Not shown in chart) The treasury have been falling constantly since the 80´s, and have nowhere to go to the downside ATM. (4) The critical support of the S&P500/M2SL lies approximately at the break-even for real interest rates if we compare their development from the 60. I strongly believe that the real interest will move towards zero eventually - either the Fed and the governments manage to curb inflation rather quickly through credit regulations, taxes and interest rate hikes, or the markets will just ignore it in the end and dump their bonds (no one will hold bonds at a certain loss of 5.6% or more in annual terms - that is madness!). When this occurs, the stock market will take a huge dump - even compared to the M2 money supply (which will most likely decrease in the time to come!). DYOR. NFA. I wish you all well!
SP:SPX
by TheDots
Growth Cycle Analysis of USD Supply.This is not entirely about a trade, moreso a thought experiment of the future to come. After the great 2020 coof liquidity crisis a brief and severe expansion of the monetary supply occurred in order to bail out the entire economy. This seems to be followed by an equivalent expansion rate mirrored by the 1971 expansion. The marked difference this time is that the interest rate is 0. To reign this in would require negative rates, or capital controls, AND a major collapse (which I do not think will be permitted).
FRED:M2SLLong
by FlyTheElephant