The Macerich Company (MAC) long.All description on the chart.
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MAC-Z
$MAC A Dismal 5 Green Monthly Candles In 3Yrs, After Short Call!On Jan 11, 2017 I posted my short on $MAC based on the changing tenor of the American consumer. The shift to online shopping was and is the greatest threat to retail in my opinion. $MAC was a highly leveraged deep in debt company that, in my opinion was in the crosshairs of industry that would be facing some serious headwinds. Rent PSF was going to plummet as anchor stores throw in the white towel.
Well... 3 years to the month and this resulting chart speaks for itself...
Now we enter a new phase in mall REIT turmoil. It's known as COVID-19. This could very well be the nail in the coffin as community gathering has significantly been reduced. Malls and mall tenants have some serious challenges before them.
MAC - Flag formation long setupMAC is a possible Flag formation long setup. Money flow is very strong and trading above its short term MA lines. Looking very good as a long setup.
MAC - Bull TestFirst things first, MAC has been a thorn in the side of many a shareholders. Let´s check out the current trend on paper:
Last 5 years: - 47.78%
Last Year: - 41.47%
Last 6 Months: - 22.16%
Last 3 Months: - 4.68%
Last 1 Month: +12.77%
So you will notice the trend. Major losses, then reduced bleeding, and finally a gain. Now this all took place over a time period where the entire market has had some serious gains. So it´s valuation in comparison to the market is, in my personal opinion, severely undervalued. I know I´m not the only one who feels this way, that last month of 12.77% gains is from those who feel the same way. The company is doing there part to correct the so called retail-apocalypse. I won´t go into detail of what the company is up to, but please do quick google search to see the changes they are making.
But that doesn´t really tell us the whole story. I think the chart is enough to make the case clear. I´m not calling a bottom, but just pointing out the setup. We will probably see some range trading, created by the support/resistance lines. I could easily see it touch either line two times minimum before making it´s move. So you day traders have an opportunity to play the $32 - $34 range. I don´t like this stock for range trading though. I see more moves to the positive, so suggesting sells at $34 goes directly against this long play.
I expect the upper resistance line to be broke. The high dividend stock is attracting people, since fixed income plays are basically obsolete anymore. And with more babyboomers entering retirement, making money without selling shares is important to retirees. So in short (the puns) I see MAC reversing it´s fortunes.
A breakout above the $34 resistance line validates the play, and should open the doors to the next established resistance line of $40. If the $32 support line fails, we could see another massive sell off. That is validated with a strong push through $32 with volume. I expect this to start this week, perhaps early next week, for the price to test the upper resistance. Good luck with your trades!
Disclaimer: I don´t own this stock, and do not plan on purchasing it within the next 24 hours. This is my personal opinion, and should be taking as nothing more than that. Please trade responsibly.
Nike - Get those Sweatshops pumpingWhats up traders -
Analysis is on the chart. This is a short term day trade.
We got a momentum / moving average channel buy signal on Nike this morning and have bought in targeting $82.00
Let me know if you have any questions and best of luck!!!!!
FNMA Posts 23% Gain In 10 DaysIt's been 10 Days since last bullish FNMA idea posted on this account and the stock outperformed.
The target was $3-$5, the price cleared the bottom end of this target already.
Stocks Still StrongThe technical analysis for SPY is very strong. We see many indications of a strong bull trend. It would be wise to buy on a dip.
The current price of SPY is $290.32.
We will find resistance from levels from above including the following:
291.74 from highs and lows over the past 14 periods
Levels from below will provide support, including:
289.60 from volume profile over the past 14 periods
288.44 from volume profile over the past 30 periods
286.76 from volume profile over the past 14 periods
285.97 from volume profile over the past 30 periods
283.73 from volume profile over the past 100 periods
283.03 from volume profile
281.28 from volume profile over the past 100 periods
279.88 from volume profile
278.77 from volume profile
278.01 from volume profile over the past 100 periods
The technicals for SPY are as follows. Volatility has consolidated quite a bit, expect a breakout soon. The RSI is 68, which suggests that we are in a bull trend, but not overbought. The MACD is above the signal line, suggesting the bull phase may continue. SPY is well above the 50 period SMA, which is 281 at the moment, suggesting that we are overbought. Further, SPY is substantially above the 100 period SMA, which is at 276. This indicates that SPY is overbought. Finally, the 50 period SMA is above the 100 period SMA, indicating longer term bullish confirmation. The ADX indicator shows a bull trend.
We are above the central moving average of the Kovach Reversals Indicator at 285, but getting closer to the upper bound of this indicator at 291. Watch for resistance at this level.
Bull score: 8, bear score: 0, ranging score: 0
Macerich (MAC): Potential start of a new uptrendPrice has just broken out of the Ichimoku Cloud. It could be the start of a new uptrend.
The idea is to catch a new trend as early as possible and ride on it as long as possible.
No target price to hit. Go long and place a trailing stop along the way as price goes higher. Set a stop loss when you open the position.
For more trading resources, go to:
www.patreon.com
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$FNMA Breakout ConfirmationNotice that beautiful W formation on the 15 Min chart and the breakout about the Cloud also the multiple bounces off the support line at $2.86 notice this was once a level of resistance.
Double Top on Freddie Mac preferredsOn this wide time scale, it is easy to see a classic U-shaped Double Top formation (Naked Forex), which often precedes downward price action.
This pattern plays out like a carbon copy on FMCCP, FMCCT, FMCKI, & FMCKP.
Those seeking to enter into a long-term long position in the Freddie Mac family of CMN and PFD stocks that have not already done so should consider waiting until the move has played out such that they can purchase at a discount.
APPLE OR APPLTRIANGLE PLAYING OUT. break may happen either side. GO SHORT WHEN RED LINE TOUCHES WITH STOP LOSS. Buy when price touches Green line (one lesser degree from 2004 support line), so plan to dump when needed. Go deep short if it fails to break the ultimate red line from the 2015 top. Using options strategy carefully.
MCD Long; 150EMA Support - Risk:Reward Of 62:1This trade setup is pretty simple and doesn't require any rocket science. McDonald's, or MCD, is a component of the DOW30. MCD has been in a trading range on the weekly chart for quite some time now. We are currently at the bottom of this range, providing an excellent opportunity to get long. I'm using covered calls in this name to get long the stock at as cheap a price as possible. The RSI show at label (A) is finding support in the oversold zone we have seen it bounce from before. In addition, we have moved off the 150EMA Weekly, which if you look at the green ellipse has previously held up since about 2007-2008 (not shown in this chart). There are two long possibilities here for me:
1) Buy MCD at 93.68 and Sell the Oct. 100 Call for $0.27 making your cost basis $93.41. With our stop on a close below $93.05 we are risking about $0.36 to make a maximum of $6.59. That's a risk reward of 18:1.
2) 1) Buy MCD at 93.68 and Sell the Oct. 97.5 Call for $0.57 making your cost basis $93.11. With our stop on a close below $93.05 we are risking about $0.07 to make a maximum of $4.39. That's a risk reward of 62:1.
(I traded #2)
The risk reward is assuming we could close out the position on the penny. This of course is not entirely true because we do not know how far below the market can close. It give you an idea however of just how well this trade is setup. You can tailor your stops to your liking. For example from this level, my stop is on a close below $93.05 or a touch of $92.35. This is because I never risk more than 2% on a single trade. I traded play number 2 because it brought my cost basis closer to the EMA reducing risk, while limiting profit. To compensate I doubled the size of my MCD position so the profit would match that of Trade Play #1, with my total risk being less than 2% still, and appropriate stops in play as mentioned. $97.50 is the closest and more likely target, with $102.00 being the top and more extended part of the range. So by using the $97.50 calls and doubling my size, my chances are better yet that I will achieve the same profits as Trading Play #1, simply because it only requires MCD to head towards $97.50 and not $102.00.
Good luck, and may the markets be ever in your favor!
