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Macroeconomics

Bitcoin Trend Analytics October 28The breakout needs to be tested. $20102.02 is the support under test today. The center remains the axis of oscillation. Only by taking hold of the center for 24 hours could the price reach a height of $23780.49. When intraday support is not broken, it’ll hold up on the center several times. Otherwise, it’ll break down to $19600.41. The market expected interest rate hike in November: 75bp(81.4%),50bp(18.6%) Interest rate hikes are expected to slow down from December.
by BitMidas
Mid term electionsIn June’s masterclass I suggested the bottom of the crypto market wasn’t yet in. Since then a 40% mid bear cycle pump was profited from. Now we have a situation where volatility on the BBWP is at one of its most contracted states ever seen. Which heavily suggests a huge macro move pending. The world’s markets have been propped up for months... from Evergrand in China to Deutsche bank in Germany, or Credit Suisse in Switzerland and the Gilts in the UK. America has sold almost 90% of their strategic oil supplies just to get the price of fuel down to curb rising inflation and outrageously the definition of recession has been rewritten so as to ignore 2 quarters of negative GDP growth Oh... and repo market lending is reaching volumes similar to 2008 and 2020!! I am suggesting that the midterm election is of utmost importance to the Biden administration. Where 435 seats in the House of Representatives, and 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate are up for grabs. If the democrats lose the Senate then executive orders will be contested and historic mal decisions can be investigated, Inclusive of Hunter Biden’s laptop!! If the true state of the world economy was known by voters their decision making would be very different I believe. AFTER THE 8th WILL SOMETHING BREAK (MAYBE A GERMAN BANK?), WILL THE MARKETS CAPITULATE?, THE FED PIVOT? AND ASSETS BENEFIT FROM THE 18 MONTHS OF ANOTHER ROUND OF STIMULUS? WILL THIS PLAY OUT THE SAME WAY AS THE LAST MIDTERM ELECTIONS AND WE SEE AN 83% CORRECTION FROM BOTTOM TO TOP FINDING SUPPORT AT 12K WHICH HAS BEEN HISTORIC RESISTANCE? If this plays out it will be one of the best buying opportunities in crypto history. If it doesn't it is one of the best buying opportunities in crypto history!!
INDEX:BTCUSD
by MrGoose83
Bitcoin Trend Analytics October 21All the resistances are diverted downward. BTC keeps chopping. BTC runs in a narrow range, formulating a consolidation before a breakout. Breaking up the first intraday resistance for 4-8 hours will the chop come to an end; breaking up the 2nd intraday resistance for 4-8 hours will it gather more strength. Breaking down the intraday support will the price fall down further. Now BTC is under pressure. Before breaking up $19920.03, BTC runs under pressure. Taking hold of it for 24 hours, short-term bulls will drive the price up. It’s still a battleground today. The market expected interest rate hike in November: 75bp(97.5%),50bp(2.5%)
by BitMidas
2
BTC - Almost Halfway Through The Accumulation E've been comparing recent BTC capitulation and now accumulation at the lows with the one in 2015. They are very similar in accumulation structure as well a how deep both capitulations went. Don't get me wrong, i don't thing this is a true bottom formation like it was in 2015 leading to the next bull run, but only forming a local bottom that just happens to be very similar as one in 2015. After completing this accumulation i still expect BTC will go into a retracement that can still take us slowly back in 45-50k area, before continuing the falL. From the comparison with todays price action wth the 2015 one, we can also expect btc to still reach the top of the range, make even higher local high (green box) and still then fall down to the bottom of the range (orange box), before starting a long awaited retracement. It all depends on a macro picture of the economy by itself. Will see what the stock market does first, but charts do show a local bottom being set for now. DISCLAMER: I am not a financial advisor so non of this should be taken as a financial advise. Be well.
by AVA37
4
Bitcoin Trend Analytics October 13BTC is about to leave the downward channel. If CPI is lower than expected, it will jump out of the channel; otherwise, BTC drops and prolongs the movement within the channel. Strength is contracting, cultivating a breakout that is likely to happen upon the release of CPI. Yesterday BTC ran between the speculative area at $18798.44 and intraday resistance at $19275.64. The capital inflow held the pressure from bears. This will keep going until a high volatility moment at 20:30(UTC+8). As volume shrinks, intraday support and resistance are fragile today, which is more prominent as the release time approaches. Use today’s intraday target points prudently. The expected CPI figure is 8.1%: if data <8.1%, BTC rebounds If data >8.1%, BTC drops If data =8.1%, BTC goes sideway The market expected interest rate hike in November: 75bp(15.2%),50bp(84.8%)
by BitMidas
1
Bitcoin Trend Analytics October 10BTC is about to leave the downward channel with the highest slope. After that, the trend will develop into new patterns. It is likely to keep fluctuating based on the current data. Strength is contracting, cultivating a breakout. $19882.81 is still a battleground, the price will oscillate around it, today concentrating between $19109.09-$19882.81. (breaking down $19109.09 will it drop to $18489.00; breaking up $19882.81 will it rise to $20454.33.) Short-term pressure remains, with shrinking liquidity and act of cautiousness. Speculative capital mostly concentrates between $18798.44-$19108.80. So monitor this area closely - if it’s broken, the price would slide further downward. The market expected interest rate hike in November: 75bp(82%),50bp(18%)
by BitMidas
1
An October perspective. 50%-67% drop potential. Worse case -94%As you can see each time we reached the first week of October we dropped a few times before going up But there are a few exceptions to consider. October 2020 up until 2021 was a year of stimulus checks. Many people who got them made sometimes more with the checks than their actual jobs. The last major rally was due to many factors. One major factor was Btc halving and the hype around it. but I will keep this short. But the key Octobers you want to be paying attention to are those in the year 2018 to 2019. These years we had interest rates from the fed at just 2.5% at its peak. As interest rates rose, Eth reacted negatively and also did BTC. To make matters worse., The macro environment of today is much worse than in 2018. Interest rates are expected to reach 4.5% by Dec. Also Russia's cuttings off oil to Europe as winter comes closer could cause people to not be able to afford risky assets while they focus on putting more of their money into other alternatives to stay warm. Now some will say BUT Look, 2018 RALLIED after the drop. Sure but this is more about rallies in October. I see no reason to be bullish this October with current macros. We cannot even compare 2018 to today's world, and things are just getting worse. I stand firm with my short position thesis for now. 50%-67% drop potential. Worse case 94% from ath (UNLIKELY)
Short
by Dtrader2020
4
Has Inflation Peaked?An unpopular opinion I have is that inflation has already peaked. Just as the Fed took too long to raise interest rates. They now appear to be raising the Federal Funds rates too high in their attempts to mitigate runaway inflation. For being such an unpopular opinion - it is oddly evident almost anywhere you care to look: Freight Rates have dropped 8.2% y/y www.dat.com The largest drop on the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report is in prices (Aug 52.5 vs Jul 60 -7.5% Change ) www.ismworld.org Oil - opened the year at $76 Annual % Change currently 4.69%! (USOIL Currently Trading at $79.30) Gold - Treasuries are an easy swap with these yields... US02Y - 4.212% ! NAHB Housing Index Down Sharply blog.itreconomics.com Unemployment has been resilient despite the steep drop in growth. However, the Fed plans on mitigating inflation through increasing unemployment. 'Beyond maximum employment' is pinkies up speech for - 'we are coming for your job'. One way to slash demand is for folks to lose their employment eh? Soft Landing is months old talking points now as Jerome Powell states 'The sacrifice is slower growth in the future' . For being so powerful & influential it is shocking to realize how poorly the Fed is keeping a pulse on inflation. I suspect the worse of inflation is behind us, and over the next three months we may see inflation back under the 5% level. When it comes to inflation remember the formula: MV=PQ M stands for money. V stands for the velocity of money (or the rate at which people spend money). P stands for the general price level. Q stands for the quantity of goods and services produced. Based on this equation, holding the money velocity constant, if the money supply (M) increases at a faster rate than real economic output (Q), the price level (P) must increase to make up the difference. Velocity has remained constant to now offset the increase in money supply and even lead to deflation instead of inflation. This is coupled with demand dropping as supply shocks have now been better absorbed. When the market beings to price in a pause in the Federal Funds Rate - this could be a catalysts for buying the bottom in risk assets such as equites & crypto. In all this volatility! Trade safe mates!
TVC:TRJEFFCRB
by ZenMode
9
US10Y: Potentially Increasing Yield, Stronger Dollar Ahead?Hello Fellow Global Investor/Trader, Here's a Technical outlook of the US Government Bond Yield! Price Action Analysis US 10 Years Government Bond Yield ( US10Y ) has rebounded on the bullish trendline. Simultaneously, US10Y is forming the flag pattern which may indicate a continuation of the prevailing bullish trend. As Traders, We can look for other confirmation. In this case, We will wait for the price to exceed the confirmation line. Thus, we can confidently assume there is a possibility of upside movement to the target area. The roadmap will be invalid after reaching the support/target area. *Disclaimer: The outlook is only used for Educational Purposes, The Creator doesn't responsible for any of your trade position or other financial decisions*
TVC:US10YLong
by financialfreedomgoals101
6
Bitcoin Trend Analytics August 29BTC broke the key support last Friday. We mentioned last week the possibility of a lower consolidation range if the recovery is failed. Currently, BTC is testing the final bullish support, which is crucial to the sustainability of the upward movement. However, sustaining the movement around this level range requires a strong bullish spring to break up resistances, otherwise, bulls could lose their momentum. Breaking down this support will the price drop deeper. QT doubles in September. Fed lifts the upper limit of QT to 95 billion (60 billion treasury bonds + 35 billion MBS). The market is under the pressure of quick and massive liquidity drainage. The market expected interest rate hike in September: 50bp(39%),75bp(61%)
Short
by BitMidas
Sell EURAUD Idea for the medium-termIt's hard to see the Eurozone fall into a recession. Currently, New Zealand seems like it will be able to avoid the same recessionary risks as a result of a global economic slowdown. The pair has broken below a strong level of support turned resistance. The pair has bounced above this level since 2017. It's easy to see the pair move lower HEADWINDS TO THIS PLAY New Zealand retail sales disappointed this week showing that the country's economy may be slowing down. The country also has more exposure to China, which is struggling to buoy the economy as consumer spending and sentiment keeps falling. If China's economy continues to struggle despite current easing, I expect NZD to be weak. TAILWINDS TO THIS PLAY The Eurozone data for August showed PPIs, PMIs and sentiment from both businesses and consumers disappointed to the downside. This has pushed the EURUSD back to parity after a bounce. The Euro is back to parity and volumes show that traders are not as bearish as they were back in April. However, short positions for non-commercial traders have increased by 70K+ since end May. Eurozone recessionary worries as a result of high energy prices in the region are placing the Euro as a precarious position. I expect another leg down in the Euro to 0.93-0.95 region.
Short
by GrizzlyBearBee
1
JICPT| USDCNH is likely to test 7.01Hello everyone. USDCNH has been moving sideways for the past 3 months until the weaker-than-expected July economic data released this week. In addition, the unexpected rate cut to MLF gave a boost to the pair. The offshore Chinese currency fell sharply against the dollar by over 700 bps. Now, it pulled back from the previous high around 6.83. Technically, the all my moving averages are heading to the upside, with a quick retest of my long key MA. That may indicate that previous high is likely to be penetrated. By the measure move method, the upper range after the breakout is 7.01. The weaker Renminbi can help China's export, offsetting the impact of sluggish domestic demand. Companies and consumers are reluctant to take on more debt amid fresh Covid flare-ups. What do you think? Give me a like if you're with me.
Long
by JICPT
Between BlackRock and a TornadoThe connection between traditional finance and crypto is more closely linked than ever before as institutional demand for our treasured asset class rises rapidly. Last week we saw BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager with approximately $8.5 billion under management, endorse bitcoin by offering a spot bitcoin private trust to their U.S-based investors. Being the largest asset manager in the world, it could be likely that all of their competitors will quickly follow suit to ensure they also offer the capability to their clients. To provide additional access, BlackRock also partnered with Coinbase to provide infrastructure for their institutional clients to invest in crypto assets. BlackRock’s industry leading portfolio management software, Aladdin, is used by over 200 of the world’s largest institutional investors and manages over $21 trillion in assets. Aladdin and Coinbase will combine forces to offer a seamless portfolio management system for crypto, with Coinbase handling the execution and custody of the assets whilst Aladdin will handle the portfolio management aspects all through the Aladdin interface. It could be argued this is a major step in proving the legitimacy of bitcoin, especially with BlackRock being the main influencer on ESG investing. It additionally showcases the demand for exposure to the asset from BlackRock’s institutional clients. Tornado Cash – the popular mixing service that enables on-chain privacy – came under heavy fire last week from governments globally. The US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC) sanctioned the protocol – leading to any American using the site breaking sanction laws. The sanction was argued due to the allegedly high number of illicit funds being laundered through the protocol and to prevent hacker groups, such as the Lazarus Group, from laundering stolen crypto funds. Dutch authorities arrested one of the protocol’s developers and have stated they will take further action against DAOs that may enable money laundering. Could this be the start of the war on Decentralised Finance (DeFi)? The implications of being linked to, or seen facilitating on-chain activity, with a wallet in connection with Tornado Cash have also prompted “decentralised” protocols to ban addresses from using their services to remain compliant with regulatory bodies. Due to the transparency and accessibility of crypto, any individual can send anything to any wallet address, with the owner unable to stop their wallet from receiving transactions. The banning of Tornado Cash sparked an onslaught of withdrawals from the protocol to famous personas’ wallets, such as Jimmy Fallon and Dave Chappelle, leading to them having broken sanctions laws and being punishable for up to 30 years in prison… technically speaking. Aave, the popular lending and borrowing protocol, banned the wallet of the founder of Tron, Justin Sun, as he was sent funds from Tornado Cash by the same unknown entity. The act of Aave banning wallet addresses has created a stir in the crypto community, with many individuals doubting how decentralised these protocols actually are with their ability to intervene and ban wallet addresses. Some commentators have argued the act of government submission completely contradicts the ethos of crypto and DeFi. Coin Centre, the crypto privacy advocacy group, has stated they will challenge the sanction as it “exceeds statutory authority”. Ever since crypto began, nation-states using crypto for their own benefit was seen as the final boss before global adoption. Last week Iran funded an import worth $10 million using crypto. Their usage has been instigated due to them being the second most sanctioned country in the world behind Russia – limiting their ability to trade with other nations using the existing banking systems. One of the country’s ministers also stated that “By the end of September, the use of cryptocurrencies and smart contracts will be widely used in foreign trade with target countries.” The increased usage of crypto from states like Iran could be seen as a double-edged sword. It demonstrates the key tenets of sovereignty and impartiality where every individual should have the right to transfer value. However, depending on your geopolitical preference it could be deemed only useful by those not accepted into the system and arguably the wrong people. This use case increasing in prevalence could also give further credence to governments to ban and regulate crypto with the argument and trump card of national security. Conversely, Ukraine has used crypto to raise well in excess of $100 million in donations to aid their fight against Russia – which would likely be viewed as a positive by the same people who condemn its usage by Iran. As with any technology, the usage and the users define its morality, despite the technology always remaining impartial. When analysing price action, these developments have not had a major impact on the price of bitcoin. From a technical perspective, bitcoin is positioned between a rock and a hard place in an ascending channel, with the $24,500 level proving hard to crack. The 100-Day moving average is also hovering at this level. A higher timeframe close above this level could be a strong indicator that the rally could continue with the next target likely being the $28,000 level where 2021 yearly candle opened and where we consolidated over summer 2021. Rejection from here could see us retest lower levels and the 200-week moving average that is situated around $23,000. However, with fear and greed reaching the highest levels seen in the past 4 months and Dogecoin and Shiba Inu pumping hard, these are telltale signs that an interim market top may be forming. The S&P 500 is also touching some strong resistance around the $4,300 level and with even further institutional involvement and intertwined portfolio management systems, rejection from this level could be the catalyst for a return to lower levels – with crypto potentially taking the hardest hit.
by Coinrule
GBPNZD-- Final position taken; 3 of 4 ideas currently activeHey guys, I recently entered into 2 long term trading positions on GBPNZD. And, as I usually do, I took a couple scalping positions as I monitored the market waiting for those two positions to initiate. You can find the other publishings down below in the related ideas section. Also, this is a scalp trade in my opinion, which I discussed my thoughts on these types of positions on one of those other publishings i just mentioned, so be sure to check that out if it sounds interesting to you. Like, comment, and subscribe to the channel for more content on foreign exchange, United States economics, and bitcoin trading ideas. As always, happy trading, and good luck!
by Bobbyusesfib
Does it make too much sense?The daily NASDAQ hasn't fallen below the 900d MA since the Great Recession. Leading up to the Great Recession, there were 2 traps on the NASDAQ (one pushed the 0.38 fib and the other pushed the 0.5). When the second trap hit the 0.5 fib level, the NASDAQ crashed. In other words, it bounced off the 900d twice before capitulation set in. The current market saw the NASDAQ break through the 0.38 level (assuming because of market aggression and the fact that the dollar is inflated) and it reached the intersection of the 100d and 200d MAs earlier this year, and now it's approaching the 0.5 level again. The economy is chalked.... The economy was saved during COVID via a bubble. Print and hand out money to keep things going (probably necessary). But the Fed didn't react quick enough with the rate increases, especially once everyone realized our "leaders" had no clue what they were talking about related to COVID. So, the bubble grew. Oh, and Ukraine, China, etc.... I have a chart on my page that overlays the inflation rate over time and unemployment rate over time. Every time the inflation rate spiked, unemployment follows on a lag. So, I'm expecting unemployment to increase in the coming months, and this lines up well with the movements described above. I mean, we're already in one, but our government is either that far gone or that stupid... idk which is worse. So, there are so many things that say the crash is coming, but does it make too much sense? TVC:NDQ NASDAQ:NDX
TVC:NDQShort
by Feech37
2
Descending trendline of highs meets the golden pocket Simple technical observation, the trend line of SPY's highs this year will cross the 0.618 Fibonacci resistance on August 31st, just in time for September which doesn't have the best track record historically. Macroeconomic considerations: Russia's still invading Ukraine, China's puffing its chest at Taiwan, U.S. and China both have their own respective housing crises, and Germany (along with a lot of Europe) is still dealing with an energy crisis as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war. Inflation flattened out this past month, but also did so for 3 straight months in 2008's subprime mortgage crisis. If I forgot some significantly bullish macroeconomic factors, please post them in the comments. My candle colors are shaded by my indicator that repaints candles to represent RSI levels. For individual candles, white wicks are bullish and black wicks are bearish.
AMEX:SPYShort
by EffyewMoney
Bitcoin Trend Analytics August 11 - pumped by a good figureCPI was much lower than expected, which fueled a strong bull run for all markets except the USDX. BTC bounced from the short-term support and gathered the strength to challenge the resistance above. According to the strength of the triangle, the resistance today diverts to $24860.73-$24597.35. This resistance has become weak and easily broken. Short-term bullish support arrived at $22775.99, which was broken yesterday and then flipped and diverted to $22977.50. Breakout on the triangle resistance at 24k will open up more space above. The drop in CPI has triggered a positive expectation of slowing the pace of interest rate hikes, however, the decision is not revealed yet. We should wait for the Fed’s final decision around Sep 21-22.
Long
by BitMidas
So, I looked at the CNY (Chinese Yuan or Juan) more, and..Check out my most recent publishing(s) referring to this particular exchange rate in the "Related Ideas" section below if your interested in the USDCNY. I took a closer look at my in-depth analysis over the weekend and felt as though it needed some adjustments (additions*) + further complication.. but its for the better.. hear me out. Ive been spending the last month or so, and will be spending as much time as necessary to catch up and become more and more familiar with what's appearing to become an even more disastrous real estate market than what we know to be the worst recorded event (in relativity) in capitalism history. ("the 2008 financial crisis") This event could be worse, simply due to the fact that China is so powerful.. (which is good for us; the money managers!) As a trader, its important to consider the recent upturn regarding political and socioeconomic gossip. IYKYK There is plenty of public and freely available information on how to approach any market using fundamental risk management. Save this, be patient, and ask questions. Happy trading, and good luck!
by Bobbyusesfib
AT&T - Future Growth and DividendsAT&T (NYSE:T) shares recently fell by approximately 10% after the firm released its second-quarter earnings. Despite better-than-expected earnings per share and revenue, excitement was muted by cash flow issues. Following the current drop, AT&T's stock yields around 7.3 percent. Furthermore, AT&T is dirt cheap again, trading at approximately 7.4 times forward EPS expectations. The market may be overreacting because the most recent earnings report was strong, and the cash flow decrease is most likely a one-time occurrence. AT&T Financials Furthermore, the corporation has set a clear strategy for future growth over the next several years. Furthermore, AT&T is recession-proof and may profit from a management shuffle. AT&T's downside looks to be limited, and the stock is appealing in this environment. Multiple growth and other factors might cause AT&T's stock price to rise significantly from here while also paying a sizable dividend. AT&T announced non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.65, above average projections by $0.03. Revenue of $29.6 billion was also $130 million more than expected. During the quarter, the business added over 800,000 postpaid phone net adds and over 300,000 AT&T Fiber net adds. While AT&T raised its mobile service revenue forecast to 4.5-5 percent, it lowered its free cash flow forecast to the $14 billion range. The headline statistics for AT&T are impressive, but the cash flow drop is depressing. Cashflows are being impacted by heavy expenditures in 5G and working capital requirements. However, inflation is most likely a role, and when the economy recovers, AT&T's cash flow problems may be resolved rapidly. AT&T's figures were pretty strong. Revenues from standalone companies were $29.7 billion, up 2% from $26 billion in the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA increased by $175 million, or 1.7 percent, year on year. In the most recent quarter, standalone adjusted EPS climbed by 1 cent to 65 cents. Perhaps most critically, AT&T's core Wireless Service expanded by 4.6 percent year on year and is expected to rise similarly in 2022 and 2023. In addition, we observe certain FCF remarks implying that the decline in FCF is a transient event. While AT&T's performance have remained excellent, and the company has demonstrated persistence in exceeding consensus analyst predictions in recent quarters, this has not prevented the stock from underperforming its competitors. AT&T's stock has underperformed the market, falling nearly 32% in the previous five years. AT&T's nearest competition, Verizon (VZ), is up marginally over the same time period. T-Mobile US (TMUS) is also higher, while Comcast (CMCSA) has destroyed the competition over the previous five years. If we extend the picture further, we see that AT&T's is down by around one-third during the last 10 years. How much longer will shareholders have to wait for a genuine management revamp? For many years, AT&T's management has done nothing useful with the corporation. For decades, AT&T's stock has been worse than dead money, and it currently trades at the same price it did in 1996. AT&T has become extremely inefficient and has devolved into a bureaucracy that must be changed fast. AT&T requires new management to restore order and return the firm to growth and profitability. AT&T's previous regime, which we don't want. We'd like an expert. We are looking for someone who will offer a unique perspective and creativity to AT&T. We need someone to turn AT&T around and bring the firm back on track. A management revamp would likely be welcomed by the market. High Dividend Yield Furthermore, with its extremely low forward P/E multiple of 7.4, AT&T might experience a slight multiple expansion, resulting in a much higher stock price as time goes on. Even a P/E multiple of nine times, as Verizon has, would result in an increase of around 18% for AT&T. If the company's P/E multiple rises to 10, its share price will grow by around 30%. also,  because of the dividend and the potential for numerous expansions. We recommend owning AT&T
NYSE:TLong
by EQTSHARES