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Scholz and Macron: Europe, arms for Ukraine Recently, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron reiterated their commitment to providing military aid to Ukraine. This decision comes at a crucial time, with the conflict continuing to profoundly affect the global economy and geopolitics. ### Implications for the war and Europe Scholz and Macron's choice to continue with military supplies underscores Europe's determination to support Ukraine against Russian aggression. However, this stance could escalate tensions with Moscow, which has already expressed its displeasure. The war in Ukraine has already had a significant impact on the European economy, with energy prices rising and supply chains disrupted. Continuing to supply weapons could prolong the conflict, but could also strengthen Europe's position as a key player in defending democratic values. ### Impact on Forex The news has significant implications for the Forex market. Several currency pairs could be significantly affected: - **EUR/USD**: The euro could come under pressure due to economic uncertainties and Europe's exposure to the conflict. On the other hand, the US dollar could strengthen due to its safe-haven status. - **USD/RUB**: The Russian ruble could see further depreciation due to geopolitical tensions and potential new Western sanctions against Russia. - **EUR/GBP**: The euro-sterling relationship could be affected, with the euro under pressure and the pound showing relative stability, as the UK is less directly exposed to the conflict. - **USD/CHF**: The Swiss franc, traditionally considered a safe-haven asset, could also strengthen against the US dollar in the event of further escalations. - **AUD/USD and CAD/USD**: Commodity currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollars could see increased volatility, as natural resource markets remain affected by the conflict. ### Conclusion Scholz and Macron’s decision to continue supplying weapons to Kiev is a strong signal of European solidarity, but it brings with it significant challenges. Forex investors should carefully monitor the listed currency pairs and geopolitical developments, as volatility could offer opportunities, but also risks.
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
Hermes Intl. Lets Try The Screwdriver NowHermès International S.A. is a French luxury design house established on 15 June 1837. It specializes in leather goods, lifestyle accessories, home furnishings, perfumery, jewelry, watches and ready-to-wear. Since the 1950s, its logo has been a depiction of a ducal horse-drawn carriage. Technical graph for Hermes stocks (US Dollars - denominated) indicates they turned to extra hot levels earlier this year, somewhere in mid-February 2024. Due to common uncertainty the bubble is going to be finally screwed.
EURONEXT:RMSShort
by PandorraResearch
1
EUR/USD gains ground despite French election shockerThe euro has started the week with gains and is trading at 1.0836 in the European session, up 0.33% on the day. EUR/USD is coming off its best week of the year, gaining 1.19%. France has been on a political roller over the past two weeks and the wild ride isn’t over yet. President Macron called a snap election in June after European parliamentary elections saw the far-right make strong gains. Macron gambled that frightened French voters would support his centrist coalition, but things didn't quite work out that way. France went to the polls twice in two weeks and each round of voting brought a stunning result. In the first round, Mary Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party won the most votes and seemed well on its way to becoming the largest party in parliament and perhaps even winning a majority. The second round brought its own surprise, as the left-wing alliance won the most seats, followed by Macron’s centrist alliance, with National Rally placing third. As the dust settles from Sunday’s vote, the political system is in gridlock, with no clear winner. The left-wing alliance fell short of a majority and Macron must now pick a prime minister who will be tasked with forming a government. This could mean a minority government or an unwieldy coalition, either which could usher in a period of instability. Despite the political uncertainty, the financial markets are steady, likely in a sign of relief that fears of a Le Pen majority did not materialize. The French stock market is steady on Monday and the euro has posted gains. It has been a good start to the week, but investors will be keeping close tabs on the fallout from France’s remarkable election. There is support at 1.0797 and 1.0752 1.0884 and 1.0929 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
French election shock: What will FX markets say? France is on the brink of a hung parliament, with the left-wing coalition capturing the most seats in a stunning upset over Marine Le Pen’s National Rally. Obviously, the forex markets are closed on the weekend. So will be interesting to see the reaction to these shock election results in France on the EUR/USD and EUR/GBP when the market opens. Regardless of whether the market thinks this turn of events is good for France or the Eurozone as a whole, this might be trumped by its dislike of surprises. The left-wing alliance, projected to win between 180 and 215 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, outpaced President Macron’s liberal bloc, which is forecast to secure 150-180 seats. The far-right National Rally, led by Le Pen, and its allies are anticipated to hold 120-150 seats. Le Pen's National Rally led in the first round of voting last week and aimed to achieve a historic majority. However, strategic voting and alliances among left-wing parties have thwarted her efforts. Le Pen’s ties to Russia, including past opposition to EU sanctions, might have also harmed her campaign. Over the weekend, Le Pen had vowed to cancel permission for Kyiv to use French-supplied long-range weapons against targets in Russia.
by BlackBull_Markets
EUR/USD rises despite France’s vote for the rightThe euro has started the week with strong gains. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0756 in the European session, up 0.41% on the day at the time of writing. The euro is at its highest level since June 14. France went to the polls on Sunday, with voter turnout at a four-decade high. The vote was a stinging rebuke for French President Emmanuel Macron, whose Ensemble alliance came in a distant third in the three-way race. The big winner was the far-right, as Marie Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) party won 33% of the vote and will likely be the largest party in the next parliament. If the RN doesn’t win a majority, that could set the stage for a hung parliament and political uncertainty, which would not bode well for the French financial markets and the euro. Interestingly, the French markets and the euro are in positive territory on Monday, as investors appear relieved that the RN might miss out on a majority in parliament. The relief on investors’ faces today could be quickly erased, however, if the NR has a strong showing in the second round of voting, which takes place on July 7. Market focus will shift from France and focus on German inflation, which will be released later today. German CPI is expected to dip to 2.3% y/y in June, compared to 2.4% in May. Monthly, the market estimate stands at 0.2%, following 0.1% gain in May. Eurozone inflation follows on Tuesday with an estimate of 2.8% y/y in June, compared to 2.9% a month earlier. EUR/USD Technical EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0752. Above, there is resistance at 1.0790 1.0709 and 1.0671 are the next support lines
by OANDA
Euro eyes French inflationThe euro has gained ground on Thursday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0707, up 0.26% on the day. The euro has stayed close to the 1.07 line for much of the week as it looks for direction. The eurozone releases the June inflation report next week. The French inflation release, which will be released on Friday, could be a precursor for the eurozone release. French inflation is expected to rise to 2.5% y/y, up from 2.3% in April. Monthly, CPI is expected to tick up to 0.1%, up from 0% in May. The European Central Bank will be hoping that inflation moves lower towards the 2% target. The ECB cut interest rates earlier this month and another rate cut will largely depend on the direction that inflation takes. Policy makers have long been concerned about an inflation rebound following a rate cut and an increase in eurozone inflation next week would dampen hopes of another rate cut in the near term. The ECB meets next on July 18th. It has been a relatively quiet week for the euro but that could change on the weekend, as French voters go to the polls in the first round of a parliamentary vote. French President Macron called the snap elections after the extreme right made sharp gains in the recent European Parliamentary elections. Macron is hoping to mobilize the center, but if his plan backfires and the extreme right gains ground, it will trigger uncertainty in France and the financial markets and the euro would likely take a tumble. The election drama could mean volatility from the euro on Monday. In the US, Final (third estimate) GDP posted a gain of 1.4% q/q, as expected. This was slightly higher than the 1.3% gain in the second estimate. The US economy has slowed down significantly in the first quarter, after a strong gain of 3.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023. Still, the Fed is yet to cut rates due to unexpectedly high inflation. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0710. Above, there is resistance at 1.0740 1.0688 and 1.0658 are providing support
by OANDA
Political Sway: Biden, Trump, Macron, and Mbappé Investors are bracing for a series of political events in the coming weeks, beginning with Thursday’s debate between U.S. President Joe Biden and Republican Nominee Donald Trump, and extending to elections in France and the United Kingdom. Thursday's debate is expected to offer contrasts between Biden's and Trump's economic visions (in-between personal jabs). Trump has hinted at his debate strategy, focusing on inflation and criticizing Biden's economic record. "Under Biden, the economy is in ruins," Trump declared on Saturday. His economic proposals include imposing strict tariffs on imports, pushing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and extending the tax cuts from his first term. Economists warn these measures could stoke inflation further if implemented. While Biden may avoid discussing the ballooning federal deficit, Trump is expected to bring it into the spotlight, despite the national debt increasing by 25% during his presidency. At the same time, EUR/USD traders need to stay alert as the French elections approach. The final week before the vote could bring significant shifts in market sentiment, driven by polling data. Current projections show the far-right National Rally (RN) party and its allies leading with 35.5% of the vote in the first round of parliamentary elections. Meanwhile, President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition is trailing in third place with 19.5%. Interestingly, football star Kylian Mbappé on Sunday urged the French public to vote against "extremes," a statement interpreted as an endorsement for Macron. Mbappé, currently the highest-paid footballer in the world, could influence younger voters and add an unpredictable element to the election's outcome.
by BlackBull_Markets
ECB speeches, Macron, and FOMC stir EUR/USD A high number of European Central Bank (ECB) officials are making public speeches in the 24 before the Fed rate decision this week Wednesday that could help or hinder the EUR/USD. Also, thrown in the mix now is French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call for a snap local election after the results of the EU Parliament elections, adding to market uncertainty. The EURUSD has extended to a 5-week low. 1.0700 could be the next target for the bears as the price has now moved into a swing area between 1.0718 and 1.0750. Perhaps the most important speeches will come from Luis de Guindos (Vice-President of the ECB), Philip R. Lane (ECB Executive Board member), and Claudia Buch (ECB Supervisory Board). Import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to iCloud, Google, or Outlook to get alerts direct to your inbox, enabling you to plan your positions in advance. Last week, the EU became the fourth Western economy to reduce its lending rate, announcing progress in tackling inflation. It lowered its main interest rate from a record high of 4% to 3.75%. Katherine Neiss, chief European economist at Prudential Investment Management, expressed "reasonable confidence" that the ECB would further cut rates over the summer or autumn, potentially bringing EU rates to 3.5% or lower by year-end. Investors will be closely analyzing the upcoming ECB speeches for any hints that support this prediction.
by BlackBull_Markets
Paris Stock Exchange Set to Open Lower Amid Political UncertaintThe Paris Stock Exchange is expected to open lower on Monday following the European elections, which have raised concerns about the political landscape in Europe. The CAC 40 futures dropped 76.5 points to 7925 points at around 8:15 am, indicating a session start in the red. Markets are reacting to the rise of nationalist parties and French President Emmanuel Macron's announcement of the dissolution of the National Assembly and early legislative elections. If the far-right National Rally party wins, Macron could lose domestic control, adding uncertainty to the market. The CAC 40 dropped 2.4% at the open, leading European market losses, while the Frankfurt DAX and pan-European Stoxx 600 also retreated. The euro has dropped to its lowest level in nearly a month due to the political developments.
EURONEXT:PX1Short
by MorMedia
Macron wins, but euro slidesThe euro has started the week with sharp losses as it struggles to stay above the 1.07 line. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0717, down 0.73% on the day. On Sunday, President Emmanuel Macron won a decisive victory over Marie Le Pen of the extreme right, by a score of 58% to 42%. The markets reacted with relief rather than elation, given that Le Pen, an avowed euro-sceptic, made a very strong showing. A Macron victory was priced in last week, and the brief euro rally after the election results didn’t last. It has been a miserable month of April for the euro, which shed over 300 points. The currency has been under pressure from the Ukraine war next door, in particular the sanctions against Russia which are having an effect on growth in Western European countries. There are growing calls in Europe to ban energy imports from Russia, which would have a massive effect on the Russian economy. However, Germany and other countries are unwilling to make such a move because of their dependence on Russian energy. Germany, for example, gets 25% of its oil and 40% of its natural gas from Russia, and abruptly cutting off these supplies would send the country into a recession. With all the uncertainty surrounding the war and sanctions, the euro is having a tough time finding its footing. German data started the week on a positive note, although it wasn’t enough the help the bleeding euro. German Ifo Business Climate rose to 91.8, up from 90.8 and above the consensus of 88.3 points. German Business Expectations climbed to 91.8 (90.8 prior), above the forecast of 89.1. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve hawkishness is also weighing on the euro. The Fed is in a hurry to roll out further rate hikes in order to contain inflation, and Fed Chair Powell continues to hint at a 0.50% increase in May, with possibly more such increases in the coming months. This widening of the US/Europe rate differential points to the euro continuing to lose ground. EUR/USD has broken below 1.0810, a multi-decade trendline. Below, there is support at 1.0728 and 1.0657 There is resistance at 1.0832 and 1.0903
by OANDA
ridethepig | CAC Market Commentary 2020.11.25📌 ridethepig | CAC Market Commentary 2020.11.25 The stem for the ending of a retrace and intentions of a turn... Breaking down ahead of US elections was strategically important. This was not a typical personality vote, the motives of Democrats are rather exclusively known and transferring the power here will indeed be revolutionary. Neither side can accept the loss, whether we see this end up in the courts or whether we see Biden with the 'hospital pass'... it is irrelevant for the sake of this conversation because in general sense of the term and it is weighing on global equities including DAX, CAC, FTSE, IBEX, FTSEMIB and etc. Eyes on the highs today, a move down from these levels opens up all sorts of problems for buyers. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:CAC40Short
by ridethepig
1
L'oreal ...because it's not worth it!📌 So what are we trading here today? Generally speaking, European Equities including CAC are under severe pressure and need a herioc sacrifice from ECB which is just not in play. Additionally we also have a fresh catalyst from the latest Macron stance triggering boycotting and prevention of L'Oreal products in Muslim countries. There is a lack of defence below, so let us briefly cover the technical flows for the conflict. A breach under 280 will trigger the waterfall and wholesale unwinding. The key point here is to look for the next area of interest below which does not come into play till 240/235.
EUREX:LORF1!Short
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | CAC40📌 A short update on French Equities that are also full of dramatic events. The nature of the down cycle came after the infamous leg we played to the topside and began profit taking. How to spot an early discovery of the flows? The diagram clarifies the relationship between the ending of wave 5 and the beginning of the initial 'A' leg with Covid. This change we played with more weight together in DAX which was pinned at the highs. Here is the brief reminder in DAX: Since we know we are in-between an ABC corrective leg the little inner flows can be played however we want because we know we are protected from the powerful macro direction. Targets: 4,200 and 3,600 before anything else is resolved to the topside would be very useful for trading the next cycle up in 2021/2022. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:CAC40Short
by ridethepig
2
GBP - Signs of a bottom beginning to form?Looking at a basket of Sterling pairs on a variety of time-frames. (You can add this to your own watchlists by copying this code: GBPAUD*GBPCAD*GBPCHF*GBPJPY*GBPNZD*GBPUSD*GBPEUR ) There appears to be some evidence of a bottom shaping on the 4-hour chart. Expecting a bumpy ride with Sterling, but I believe the Risk/Reward is looking favourable in the short term. We should see some more news from Brexit discussions over the next few hours. Let's see what happens! Hope you like the video - please give it a like if you do! Good Luck. Joe GBP Macro news The July UK government posted a budget surplus of £1.3bn compared with £3.5bn the previous year with the deficit for the first four months of fiscal 2019/20 increasing to £16.0bn from £10.0bn as spending increased and revenue growth slowed. Sterling lost ground following comments by a French official that in view of Prime Minister Johnson’s comments on the Irish backstop, the baseline scenario now seemed to be a ‘no-deal’ Brexit and President Macron reiterated that the deal could not be re-opened. German Chancellor Merkel stated that as soon as there is a solution to the Irish border issue, there will be no need for the backstop. She also stated that a negotiated Brexit would be welcomed, but Germany is ready for all outcomes and challenged the UK government to find a solution to the Irish border within the next 30 days. The comments failed to provide significant support with Sterling holding net losses on the day. EUR/GBP settled around 0.9140 with GBP/USD below 1.2150. A labour-market survey recorded the strongest increase in wage rises since 2008, but political tensions tended to dominate sentiment with GBP/USD around 1.2120 on Thursday.
Long
by Signal_Centre