Major_correction — Trading Ideas on TradingView

If the market finally topped, this is next Since the recent bull move at the end of October began, we have stayed above the same trendline. Not only did the final hour of trading break below that line, it also closed below it. Is this the first indication we have begun Cycle wave C down? Based on the historical quartile percentages, it appears Cycle wave C and ultimately Supercycle wave 2 will bottom below 3041. The original call for the bottom in July 2022 was to occur around 2400 in the first quarter of 2025. Those dates initially moved forward when I thought Cycle B ended early and I raised the levels to 2700-2900 as well. A bottom in 2025 looks all but certain due to the elongation of Cycle wave B. It looks like the low should stay above 2474.27 but let's see what the other studies say. The duration models have the most likely lengths at 2499 and 1365 hours which are the respective lengths of B and A. I will once again discount these lengths due to the macro nature of the forecasted wave. The then longest durations are at 2720-2740 and 1240-1260 followed by 4080-4100. The price models agree the most at a bottom between 2900-3050, with the next pocket of agreement at 2650-2750. Other levels are available as high as 3100-3250 and low as 2350-2400. My derivative model is unable to produce enough data due to the macro position of the sought wave. The final study compares specific characteristics of the preceding waves to determine what Cycle wave C could do based on historical similarities. Cycle wave B was longer than Cycle wave A, which while less frequent, wave C's behavior is relatively consistent. Cycle wave B was 2499 trading hours long (assuming it has finally completed) while wave A was 1365. This means A was 0.5462 times that size of B. I looked for waves that had the same ratio between 0.5 and 0.65. I further sought historicals where the price movement of A/B was between 1-1.15. In the current case Cycle wave A moved 1.0316 times that of B. Wave B nearly retraced all of Cycle wave A's movement at 96.94%. The of this query provided realistic goals of what Cycle wave C could look like. Duration models like the window from 2261-3864 with the median at 2842. The price models like the low between 3165.62-3378.02. The low is expected to remain above 2729.944 according to this study. My preliminary assessment puts the bottom around 2150-2200 trading hours and around 2650-2900 for price. This would put the market bottom around mid-March 2025. This is the green box in the bottom right of the main chart above. I have figured China taking Taiwan would be a factor in the coming declines, but deflation in the U.S. economy, shipping disruptions in the Red Sea, politics in the U.S. will possibly play factors too. This is the final piece of the ABC correction which is a shorter variation of the 2000-2009 more macro ABC correction. Once we bottom out, the next impulsive cycle should send the S&P 500 index beyond 8000 over the next 15-20 years. I am also working on my modified wave analysis for DIS, JPM, and KO over the next few months. Follow me for more analysis and happy hunting.

Time To See If Elliott Wave Can Predict This Recession If we are beginning wave 3, I have us in Sub-Millenial wave 1, Grand Supercycle wave 5, Supercycle wave 2, Cycle wave A, Primary wave 5, Intermediate wave 3. I alphanumerically refer to this wave as 152A53 Intermediate wave 2 met all of its targeted movement and it bounced perfectly off of the median wave 1 retracement. With all goals met, the major drops are scheduled next. It all begins with the inflation numbers pre-market tomorrow and then followed by a week of speculation on what the Fed will do. I have both of these events occurring in Intermediate wave 3 and each event is a catalyst for the pending 700 points, Elliott Wave Theory is hinting at dropping over the next month. If this movement does not occur, my wave count is wrong or EW is complete $#*&^#%$. I have highlighted potential extension points based on historical movement for waves ending in 53 and A53. For waves ending in 53: 75% of the time (the first quartile of data) wave 1's movement is surpassed by 147.99% 50% of the time (the median) wave 1's movement is surpassed by 166.31% 25% of the time (the third quartile) wave 1's movement is surpass by 209.7% all of these levels are indicated by the yellow extension lines For waves ending in A53: Quartile 1 is 161.34% (near the "perfect ratio") Median is 193.26% Quartile 3 is 267.24% all of these levels are indicated by the light blue extension lines. My target bottom is somewhere around 3595, but we will see how intense the selling is. This could also look like capitulation selling, but I think that will actually occur in 2024. I will continue to re-evaluate as we work our way through this.

Theory 3 of 3 for SPX--MOST LIKELY I have narrowed the likely future paths down to 3 theories. THEORY THREE: Current position is Primary wave 4 of Cycle A of Supercycle 2. Theory 3 is on a faster path while the wave structure is similar to Theory 2. The preliminary bear market bottom would be in somewhere between Election Day 2024 and March 2025. The path for the next month would see the market move up for a few more weeks as it attempts to finish Primary wave 4 (SKY BLUE). It appears Intermediate wave A (PINK) has concluded and it is even possible the low 2 days later was the end of Intermediate wave B down. It remains possible for further downswing this week to complete Intermediate wave B but it likely will not pass below the June low at 3636.87. Wave B CAN go below this level but it would bounce above it quickly. Early models have Primary wave 4 lasting around 28 days, we are 9 days into it so far. IMPORTANT MOVES: There are no duration restrictions on future movement at this time. A break above 3945 before a drop below 3636 would continue to keep this theory in play. PROS: This model appears to be riding election cycles. After Primary wave 4 ends, the market will swoon down again for a few more months with the bottom occurring around October/November this year. The 6-12 months afterward would move up before the final leg down takes the market to around 2400. The correction at the beginning of the millennium saw the overall decline last for about 9 years (March 2000 – March 2009). This was a larger macro event then our current correction. A 2-4 year correction makes more sense for this micro wave set we are likely in. CONS: Negatives are not glaring with this model at this time.

Theory 2 of 3 for SPX I have narrowed the likely future paths down to 3 theories. THEORY TWO: Current position is Intermediate wave 4 of Primary wave 1 of Cycle A of Supercycle 2. Theory 2 still has the bear market finding a final bottom 5-8 years from now. The path for the next month would see the market move up for a few more weeks as it attempts to finish Intermediate wave 4 (PINK). It appears Minor wave A (YELLOW) has concluded and it is even possible the low 2 days later was the end of Minor wave B down. It remains possible for further downswing this week to complete Minor wave B but it likely will not pass below the June low at 3636.87. Wave B CAN go below this level but it would bounce above it quickly. IMPORTANT MOVES: There are no duration restrictions on future movement at this time. A break above 3945 before a drop below 3636 would continue to keep this theory in play. PROS: If this model holds out, it will provide ample time for investors to ride the waves up and down during the current recession. CONS: The correction at the beginning of the millennium saw the overall decline last for about 9 years (March 2000 – March 2009). This was a larger macro event then our current correction. It is unlikely that this event will last nearly as long as that one. This would likely imply the current political pressures on the market are not resolved until after the 2028 election cycle.

Theory 1 of 3 for SPX I have narrowed the likely future paths down to 3 theories. THEORY ONE: Current position is Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave 5 of Primary wave 1 of Cycle A of Supercycle 2. Theory 1 has the bear market finding a final bottom 5-8 years from now. The path for the next month would see new lows below 3636.87 which was the recent low from June. IMPORTANT MOVES: Currently Intermediate wave 3 is the shortest between waves 1 and 3 at 31 days. This would force wave 5 to be less than 31 days which is set for July 19. Minor waves 1 and 2 as marked (YELLOW) have accounted for 17 of the 31 days. This means we must complete Minor waves 3, 4, and 5 within the next 14 days which will be a very tight timeframe. This theory will be ruled out if we break above 3945 before we break beneath 3636. The futures right now are pointing to this theory being disqualified. PROS: If this model holds out, it will provide ample time for investors to ride the waves up and down during the current recession. CONS: The correction at the beginning of the millennium saw the overall decline last for about 9 years (March 2000 – March 2009). This was a larger macro event then our current correction. It is unlikely that this event will last nearly as long as that one. This would likely imply the current political pressures on the market are not resolved until after the 2028 election cycle. There is also an Elliott Wave violation inside of Intermediate wave 3 (the span between PINK 2 and PINK 3). Minute wave 4 ends beyond where Minute wave 2 ends. This violation likely negates the Minor waves inside of Intermediate 3 and its end point.