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Makuchaku

SPY500/Emini/ES : Daily schematic of liquidity & trapped tradersThere are a whole bunch of trapped traders on both sides of price for SPY500 / Emini futures / ES1! which will want to exit, giving us a trade in opposite direction (yellow zones) Beware of the engineered liquidity zones - which are almost like a candy land for big institutions - where orders are just sitting to be taken! Those zones WILL BE poked poked! (green zones) Good luck & good trading for the election week! Please note : the zones shown here are for reference purpose only. Actual buy & sell zones should be fine tuned with a lower timeframe reference & more detailed analysis.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by makuchaku
6
USDSGD (4H) Backtest : 62% Win rate (12 R), 85% non-losers!Detailed backtest results - prnt.sc - Win/Loss ratio : 400% - Non losers : 85% - Net R : 12 R across 13 trades - Avg R / winner = 1.5 - Avg R / trade = 0.92 Icons on the chart - Thumbs up : Trade was a win - Thumbs down : Trade was a loss - Circle with a cross : Trade was breakeven - Cross : Did not take the trade due to one or more trade qualifiers - Bug : I could not understand how to trade, so avoided trading Trade qualifiers - $ icon : DXY was either supporting the trade direction (and we took the trade as win/loss/BE), or DXY was not supporting the trade direction (and trade was not taken) - Dollar bill icon : Liquidity was present behind the stop loss How to read icons on chart? - Thumbs up + $ icon => Winner trade, direction was supported by DXY - Thumbs down + $ icon => Loser trade, direction was supported by DXY - Cross + $ icon => Trade skipped because DXY didn't support trade direction (though a liquidity hunt wasn't an issue) - Cross + $ icon + Dollar bill => Trade skipped because DXY didn't support trade direction & a potential liquidity hunt was due near the stop loss - Cross + Dollar bill => Trade skipped because a potential liquidity hunt was due near the stop loss (though DXY did support trade direction) Indicators at bottom of chart 1) Count of HH/LL for the pair - shows when market structure is broken => Also generates a signal on the main chart (highlighted vertical lines) 2) Count of HH/LL for DXY - shows how the pair is moving in correlation to DXY 3) Correlation of the pair with DXY - just to give an idea about how the correlation is moving Strategy Pickup a pair which is highly correlated to DXY AND Wait for market structure to break, then trade the retest of that zone. Zone is drawn using the first candle which crossed the pivot high/low to begin trapping the traders AND Liquidity in form of equal highs/lows should not be present behind the stop loss AND Since the pair is highly correlated to DXY , the formation of HH/LL in DXY should support the trade's direction at the time of zone's formation Risk management 1) Reduce 50% at 1R => Trade becomes risk free 2) Reduce further 25% at 2R AND move SL to break-even 3) Close trade at 3R 4) Winner = 1.75R Variables Avg winner = 1.75R PS1 : Please excuse the busy chart! PS2 : This backtest was performed right to left, so could include visibility bias. However, I tried to follow the strategy rules in all trades.
by makuchaku
2
USDCAD (4H) backtest : 58% Win rate (11.25 R), 92% non-losers!Detailed backtest results prnt.sc Win/Loss ratio : 700% Non losers : 92% Net R : 11.25 R across 12 trades Avg R / winner = 1.61 Avg R / trade = 0.94 Icons on the chart Thumbs up : Trade was a win Thumbs down : Trade was a loss Circle with a cross : Trade was breakeven Cross : Did not take the trade due to one or more trade qualifiers Bug : I could not understand how to trade, do avoided trading Trade qualifiers $ icon : DXY was either supporting the trade direction (and we took the trade as win/loss/BE), or DXY was not supporting the trade direction (and trade was not taken) Dollar bill icon : Liquidity was present behind the stop loss Strategy Wait for market structure to break, then trade the retest of that zone. Zone is drawn using the first candle which crossed the pivot high/low to begin trapping the traders AND Liquidity in form of equal highs/lows should not be present behind the stop loss AND Since the pair is highly correlated to DXY , the formation of HH/LL in DXY should support the trade's direction at the time of zone's formation Risk management Reduce 50% at 1R => Trade becomes risk free Reduce further 25% at 2R AND move SL to break-even Close trade at 3R Winner = 1.75R Variables Avg winner = 1.75R PS : Please excuse the busy chart!
by makuchaku
6
EURUSD (4H) backtest : 69% Win rate (12.75 R)Detailed backtest results prnt.sc Win/Loss ratio : 300% Net R : 12.75 R across 13 trades Avg R / trade = 0.98 Avg R / winner = 1.42 Icons on the chart Thumbs up : Trade was a win Thumbs down : Trade was a loss Circle with a cross : Trade was breakeven Cross : Did not take the trade due to one or more trade qualifiers Bug : I could not understand how to trade, do avoided trading Trade qualifiers $ icon : DXY was either supporting the trade direction (and we took the trade as win/loss/BE), or DXY was not supporting the trade direction (and trade was not taken) Dollar bill icon : Liquidity was present behind the stop loss Strategy Wait for market structure to break, then trade the retest of that zone. Zone is drawn using the first candle which crossed the pivot high/low to begin trapping the traders AND Liquidity in form of equal highs/lows should not be present behind the stop loss AND Since the pair is highly correlated to DXY, the formation of HH/LL in DXY should support the trade's direction at the time of zone's formation Risk management Reduce 50% at 1R => Trade becomes risk free Reduce further 25% at 2R AND move SL to break-even Close trade at 3R Winner = 1.75R Variables Avg winner = 1.75R PS : Please excuse the busy chart!
by makuchaku
GICHSGFIN (4H) Backtest : 69% win rate across 13 trades => 11.4 Detailed backtest result : prnt.sc Non-looser = 77% Icons on the chart Thumbs up : Trade was a win Thumbs down : Trade was a loss Circle with a cross : Trade was breakeven Cross : Did not take the trade due to presence of liquidity (equal highs/lows) behind the stop loss Variables Avg winner = 1.6R Strategy : wait for market structure break, then trade the retest of that zone. Zone is drawn using the first candle which crossed the pivot high/low to begin trapping the traders.
NSE:GICHSGFIN
by makuchaku
USDCHF (4H) Backtest : 60% win rate across 20 trades => 14.2 RDetailed backtest result : prnt.sc Non-looser = 75% Icons on the chart Thumbs up : Trade was a win Thumbs down : Trade was a loss Circle with a cross : Trade was breakeven Cross : Did not take the trade due to presence of liquidity (equal highs/lows) behind the stop loss Variables Avg winner = 1.6R Strategy : wait for market structure break, then trade the retest of that zone. Zone is drawn using the first candle which crossed the pivot high/low to begin trapping the traders.
by makuchaku
RUSSEL (4H) Backtest : 68% win rate across 19 trades => 17.8 RDetailed backtest result : prnt.sc Non-looser = 84% Icons on the chart Thumbs up : Trade was a win Thumbs down : Trade was a loss Circle with a cross : Trade was breakeven Cross : Did not take the trade due to presence of liquidity (equal highs/lows) behind the stop loss Variables Avg winner = 1.6R Strategy : wait for market structure break, then trade the retest of that zone. Zone is drawn using the first candle which crossed the pivot high/low to begin trapping the traders.
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by makuchaku
USDCAD (4H) Backtest : 55% win rate across 22 trades => 12.2 RDetailed backtest result : prnt.sc Non-looser = 68% Icons on the chart Thumbs up : Trade was a win Thumbs down : Trade was a loss Circle with a cross : Trade was breakeven Cross : Did not take the trade due to presence of liquidity (equal highs/lows) behind the stop loss Variables Avg winner = 1.6R Strategy : wait for market structure break, then trade the retest of that zone. Zone is drawn using the first candle which crossed the pivot high/low to begin trapping the traders.
by makuchaku
2
GOLD (4H) Backtest : 78% win rate across 18 trades => 21.4 RBacktest results : prnt.sc Non-looser = 94% Icons on the chart Thumbs up : Trade was a win Thumbs down : Trade was a loss Circle with a cross : Trade was breakeven Cross : Did not take the trade due to presence of liquidity (equal highs/lows) behind the stop loss Variables Avg winner = 1.6R Strategy : wait for market structure break, then trade the retest of that zone. Zone is drawn using the first candle which crossed the pivot high/low to begin trapping the traders.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by makuchaku
EURGBP (4H) Backtest : 48% win rate across 21 trades => 10 RBacktest results : prnt.sc Non-looser = 71% Icons on the chart Thumbs up : Trade was a win Thumbs down : Trade was a loss Circle with a cross : Trade was breakeven Cross : Did not take the trade due to presence of liquidity (equal highs/lows) behind the stop loss Variables Avg winner = 1.6R Strategy : wait for market structure break, then trade the retest of that zone. Zone is drawn using the first candle which crossed the pivot high/low to trap the traders.
by makuchaku
USDMXN (4H) Backtest : 61% win rate across 23 trades => 15.4 RBacktest results : prnt.sc Icons on the chart Thumbs up : Trade was a win Thumbs down : Trade was a loss Circle with a cross : Trade was breakeven Cross : Did not take the trade due to presence of liquidity (equal highs/lows) behind the stop loss Variables Avg winner = 1.6R Strategy : wait for market structure break, then trade the retest of that zone. Zone is drawn using the first candle which crossed the pivot high/low to trap the traders.
by makuchaku
USDJPY (4H) Backtest : 67% win rate across 24 trades => 19.6 RBacktest results : prnt.sc Icons on the chart Thumbs up : Trade was a win Thumbs down : Trade was a loss Circle with a cross : Trade was breakeven Cross : Did not take the trade due to presence of liquidity (equal highs/lows) behind the stop loss Variables Avg winner = 1.6R Strategy : wait for market structure break, then trade the retest of that zone. Zone is drawn using the first candle which crossed the pivot high/low to trap the traders.
by makuchaku
EURUSD (4H) Backtest : 52% win rate across 25 trades => 13.8 RBacktest results : prnt.sc Icons on the chart Thumbs up : Trade was a win Thumbs down : Trade was a loss Circle with a cross : Trade was breakeven Cross : Did not take the trade due to presence of liquidity (equal highs/lows) behind the stop loss Variables Avg winner = 1.6R Strategy : wait for market structure break, then trade the retest of that zone. Zone is drawn using the first candle which crossed the pivot high/low to trap the traders.
by makuchaku
EURCHF (4H) Backtest : 63% win rate across 16 trades => 14 RBacktest results : prnt.sc Icons on the chart Thumbs up : Trade was a win Thumbs down : Trade was a loss Circle with a cross : Trade was breakeven Cross : Did not take the trade due to presence of liquidity (equal highs/lows) behind the stop loss Variables Avg winner = 1.6R Strategy : wait for market structure break, then trade the retest of that zone. Zone is drawn using the first candle which crossed the pivot high/low to trap the traders.
by makuchaku