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S&P500 Vs Manufacturing PMI & GDP Growth Expectations Here we take a deeper look at why the ISM Manufacturing PMI data release is the most closely watched economic indicator on the monthly calendar. We look at how manufacturing PMI predicts GDP growth in the U.S with an 85% certainty going back to 1948. We then take a look at the historical correlation to ISM Manufacturing PMI and the S&P500. After watching this video you will understand what that market focuses on to predict GDP growth and when to buy and sell the S&P500 index

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The myth of hyperinflation series #7- Supply & production Let's keep it simple. Increase in raw material & production cost-> Decrease in aggregate supply (Suppliers drop out as profit deteriorates)-> Decrease in total production->. If demand remains the same (most likely going to be the case unless there is another stimulus check coming in), then remaining producers/suppliers who now have more pricing power can and have to pass down the cost to consumers-> Potential supply-induced inflation happens as the same number of buyers chase after the shrinking pool of goods. However, the chart shows no such risk. As the consumption picks up, supplier/producer starts to hire more people (Manufacturing employment) and ramp up the production lvl (Manufacturing production). The increasing demand is matched by the increasing production (manufacturing production keeps up with the demand of the new order) and declining inventory (Manufacturing inventory). In other words, even though oil price and raw material cost rose (still below the historical standard), we didn't see any decrease in aggregate supply . Of course, I have simplified the matte and left out many details, but I think the only issue we have to worry about that can cause the imbalance between aggregate supply and demand is the potential supplier delivery difficulties being mentioned in the ISM report. In general, supply is elastic, meaning that the producer/supplier usually rush to increase the production/capacity as the price of good and demand go up because capital has been abundant ever since China joined WTO and the interest rate has been suppressed to such a low lvl ever since sub-prime mortgage crisis. The whole world is on the disinflationary trend as we live in a world of excess savings and insufficient demand because developing countries constantly export their savings to developed countries and because the disposable income doesn't keep up with the inflation. Such over-capacity/overproduction & over-abundance of capital and good will keep the price lvl low & affordable and the inflation lvl manageable, especially in the disinflationary environment in which there is a moderate amount of consumer demand. Next, I will talk about some of the external factors and circumstances that could influence the possibility of hyperinflation.

Dax daily: 24 Jul 2020 For yesterday, we expected the retest of 13 235 followed by a possible correction to the downside. Buyers were not able to get all the way to this level as bears took dominance of the market. The whole intraday session was then characterized in a clear directional move to the downside and this lasted till the close. Dax corrected its uptrend of the past days and the pice is comfortably below 13 119 and near the support of 12 882. Important zones Resistance: 13 119, 13 235 Support: 12 882 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 09:15 - 10:00 CEST - Eurozone PMIs Today's session hypothesis After seeing yesterday's price action with the close at its low, the scenario offered itself to break the previous day's low. Regardless, Dax opened with a descending gap and fulfilling this thesis right away. At the time of writing, the price is correcting its drop and chances are to see the gap closure early in the morning trading session. We anticipate today's session to remain above the support level of 12 882.

Germany in recession - ISM manufacturing below 45 - SELL EUR Hello Traders, Manufacturing PMI is a leading indicator of when an economy enters a contraction phase, recession and expansion phase. A result below 50 signals a contraction, a result below 45 signals a recession. Germany has now entered a recession as they reported another weak market manufacturing PMI result of 41.4. The EUR also reported a market manufacturing PMI result of 45.6, on recession territory. The EURO zone is in some trouble. We are now short on the EURJPY, short term target being 117.60, we could even see a retest of the major lows at 115.94. If the market pushes higher we will look to sell from a higher resistance level. Any comments or questions let us know. www.forexstoreau.com

PMI Likely Near 39 by Q2 2020 Manufacturing numbers continue to be horrendous at best, and with recent escalating tariffs between US-China which will only seemingly get worse through time, manufacturing should inevitably decline even further through Q4 2019 and Q1 2020. From number extrapolation based on key data I am targeting a PMI of around 39 late Q2 2020 or possibly Q3 2020. In the near term, we can expect around 45 PMI before Q1 2020. Since the tariffs begin in September however, I suspect August and September will likely only go down 0.5 month to month from July's value of 51.2. As we move closer to the general election in the United States, I suspect there will end up being a trade deal otherwise Trumps chance of winning will be hindered significantly; as such I do not expect numbers to become as stale as 2008-2009 in the manufacturing sector, but likely be 4-5 points higher from the 35 value we saw back then (i.e. predicting 39 bottom). Highlights (Predictions) - Current (July): 51.2 - Fall 2019 (Sept/Oct/Nov): 49-44 - Winter & Spring 2019/2020 (Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar/April/May): 43-39 -- I will be monitoring this situation very carefully and will update this post as newer information and data becomes available. Please check back on a monthly basis as manufacturing numbers come out for the most up-to-date data and analysis! - zSplit

Bitcoin & Manufacturing PMI | Market Trend and Cycles The Bitcoin "mining" industry which sustains the infrastructure for the Bitcoin network can be compared to manufacturing. If we compare the price of Bitcoin to the Manufacturing PMI (which measures the sentiment among managers in the US) we can see a significant degree of correlation. While the potential causal mechanisms still require rigorous study, we can add this data to gauging trend reversals and cycles in Bitcoin along side other data sets like $BTC Dominance, $NVT , and other on-chain information.