Mariodrahgi
The Dinosaurs are back 🦕🦖🐊Ladies and Gentlemen,
The Dinosaurs are back:
The Super Dragausaurus has appeared in Italy , just a few weeks after the most ethical dinosaur , the famous Yellenosaurus , made it's appearance back i the financial markets.
A third one, the bald Amazonosaurus Interneticus of the Americas has decided to go for a healthy walk from Ceo to Executive Chair
Who is best? Mario Draghi🦕.. nobody messes with Super- Mario, he is fun and Italian🍝
Who is worse? Yellen🐊... taking 700,000$ from Citadel and now pretend she will regulate and save the markets
EUR Close below 1.1075 will provide another selling opportunityBeing trend trader we gauge both the strength and direction of a trend using different unorthodox methods. Remember What a veteran like Warren Buffet has advised.
"Think what others are not thinking".
100 DMA, Oh yes!!! very powerful tool to analyse a pair's direction. But most of traders make mistakes while using moving averages whether 100, 50 or 20 days/periods. So far, Our top trade of 2019 was on the most popular FX pair, EURUSD, on 28 JUNE. When we leveraged our account by 1:10 (which we very very rarely do and advise others the same). But the opportunity was so enticing or mouth watering that we couldn't resist. Let us share with you what made us so compelling about taking a SHORT position when the pair was heading the other way (apparently).
Okay, Let go back and start reading EURUSD from April 2018 when more than an year long up-trend was broken.
There were more than 10 reasons,both fundamentally and technically, to believe that EUR's bullish run was over. you might have your own.
Our current talk is WHY 28 June SHORT was our TOP TRADE. One might call us MAD, Oh Dear!!!! Look! On 3rd June trend-line was broken and retested with a strong bullish candle on 6th June. Pair is in C-wave(for those who use wave analysis or Elliot wave patterns), and C-wave has 4 big bullish candles from 19th June to 24 June. Pair is just consolidating here and might go for E-wave of 5th wave, There was no strong bearish signal apparently, except a bearish engulfing candle on 25 June, which seemed very weak with contrast to the parameters for bullish case. How comes, that you are talking about a SHORT position?
NOW LOOK, what 100 days moving average teaches us here.
How many times the pair has crossed above the 100 DMA line, answer is many times (about 10 times give or take).
How many times it retained its position????? and Why it couldn't???
Why big brothers were jumping into selling opportunities through whole this period, What gave them the sense to take SHORT positions, On what grounds they were contrarian to bullish herd. These are all questions, which splashes into a good traders mind. If you think that a pair is gone move in a certain direction, ASK YOURSELF 10 TIMES, WHY?, WHY?, WHY?.
PAIR has once more broken the trend line and crossed 100 DMA. Which way the pair will go from here LONG/SHORT?
NOTE :My guess is as good as yours!
:Ideas are absolutely personal.
Central Banks Week Ahead: Our Expectations and Trading PlansECB president, Mario Draghi unveiled a package of measures to ease monetary policy: the rate was reduced, and new asset purchases were announced. The euro initially reacted “classically” - with a decline, but then on Thursday evening and Friday was growing steadily. A similar thing was observed last week with the Turkish lira, which sharply strengthened after the Central Bank of Turkey reduced its rate by 375 (!) Basis points.
This reaction can be explained by the fact that now the absence of a recession in the future is more important for markets than a drop in profitability.
So, we cannot wait to watch the dollar reaction to the Fed decision on Wednesday. The rate is likely to be lowered, but how the dollar will react is unclear. Of course, we will sell it, but keep in mind the variant of an illogical reaction. What we recommend to do in the future, we believe the dollar is doomed to decline. Reasons for its sales are understandable. The budget deficit that exceeded $ 1 trillion is enough to build apocalyptic theories and sell the dollar.
This week will be rich in events related to the Central Banks. After Wednesday and the Fed’s decision, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Switzerland, and the Bank of England will announce their decisions on Thursday. Given the global trend towards easing monetary policy, surprises are likely from all the central banks mentioned above. So you need to be prepared for it.
Therefore gold purchases continue to be a good trading idea. And this week we will continue to buy the asset on the intraday basis.
Although Mario Draghi stated that the risks of a recession in Europe are insignificant, economic data suggest the opposite, as well as what the ECB does. So we will continue to sell euros this week. The general slowdown in the global economy is definitely against developing countries and markets. Russia seems to be particularly vulnerable in this regard, so we recommend selling the ruble.
The pound continues to grow amid confidence in the markets that there will be no “hard” Brexit. Therefore continue to recommend its purchase.
What happens to euro, the price of Brexit and Trump's rebatesYesterday turned out to be busy and volatile.
The ECB has eased monetary policy in the Eurozone. ECB cut the deposit rate by 0.1% to -0.50%, announced new purchases of assets (the ECB will buy government bonds at 20 billion euros per month, starting November 1). There was a signal - weak economic data: industrial production in the Eurozone in July fell by 0.4% (analysts expected a decrease of only 0.1%).
Not surprisingly the euro fall against this background. Actually, in yesterday’s review, we predicted such a development of events and recommended selling the euro. So those of our readers who follow our recommendations should have made good money on euro sales.
The amazing thing started after has gone down by more than 100 basis points. After Mario Draghi said that the probability of a recession is low, the euro went up. Despite this growth, we believe that the euro should be sold. In the end, on one side - facts (lower rates and buyback program expansion, weak economic data), and on the other - the words that everything is not that bad. So today we will sell the euro. First of all, against the yen and the pound.
It was possible to earn on gold purchases yesterday. As we predicted, difficulties gold experienced were temporary and yesterday's growth is evidence of this.
Gold growth took place from the information that Trump has delayed the use of part of the tariffs, and China has expressed its willingness to buy agricultural products from the United States. But even this could not stop the growth of gold. The same with the euro, Draghi's comments have so far turned the situation upside down. We do believe that the decline in gold value last night is a great opportunity to buy it cheaper.
The UK government considered the possible consequences of a no-deal. In general, everything turned out to be not that good: lack of food and fuel, job loss, riots, problems in logistics, the closing of several oil refineries and so on. Once again confirms that the deal is important and needed. So the recommendation to buy the pound remains relevant.
Also, data on consumer inflation in the US were published yesterday. They are very important since next Wednesday the Fed will announce its decision on monetary policy parameters.
According to published statistics, US consumer inflation in August was 1.7% year-on-year, lower than the Fed’s forecasts and target. This means that the Fed’s hands have been untied to lower rates on Wednesday. For the dollar as a whole, this is a negative signal, so we recommend selling it.
And a few words about the oil market. Sales in the past couple of days have been linked to Trump's hints that sanctions on Iran may be partially lifted. Since the oil market is already on the verge of surplus, the appearance of an additional 1-2 million barrels of oil per day will be a sentence for buyers
Dax with Up-Gap to start the day - July 23rdMoin from Hamburg
The Dax on H4 has left the downward trend channel through the positive price gap to the trading start at 8 o'clock German time. We were able to successfully trade this market opening trade for the 615th time with the TC24.SwissBox.
All bulls will now keep their fingers crossed that the gap will not be closed during the day and that the old resistance zone of 12,440 points can be broken instead.
Should the gap still exist until Thursday afternoon, then perhaps ECB boss Mario Draghi can provide the necessary impulses for the upward movement during his speech on Thursday.
Good trades
T
is EUR really looking positive?
Good afternoon,
Yes, the Eur did make nice up move after the Fed's minutes yesterday, only to test the 38% on the fibo retracement @1.1316. How could we forget what Mario Draghi spoke about the weakness of the EuroZone and still have this major move?
I believe this is what we call 'White noise"! I shall try to keep my sights on the major news and forget all this none sense occurring at the moment.
I am shorting eur @ 1.1300, stop loss @ 1.1345 and a take profit @1.1240
Good luck
Preparing for the NFP, ECB results & FedMonetary policy decisions. The announcement of the ECB’s decision on the parameters of monetary policy in the euro area was the main event. As expected, no changes followed. The most important thing, as usual, was concentrated in the comments of the Head of the ECB, Mario Draghi. The economic growth forecasts worsened again (the GDP growth rate for 2020 was lowered from 1.6% to 1.4%). In addition, according to Draghi, the ECB is serious about a return to quantitative easing and lower rates. Buying euros after such a speech of the head of the ECB is not worth it, even if you really want to sell a dollar.
And today we want to sell the dollar more than ever. In yesterday's review, we have already noted that the figures for the number of jobs in private US companies in May were just awful. + 27K - we have not seen such figures since the global financial crisis. After publishing NFP a couple of times over the past few years, frankly, weak numbers, from time to time, have been shown. But not in the case of data from ADP. It is difficult to imagine a situation in which the data from ADP showed + 27K with the forecast of 180K, and the figures for the NFP come out near + 185K. The level of correlation between these indicators is low, and the methodology for calculating indicators differs, but at the same time, they characterize the same market in the same coordinate system.
So today we are waiting for the NFP to lower its forecast. By lower we mean marks + 100K and below. The figure in the range of 30-50K will not surprise us much. But the markets definitely will, provoking massive dollar sales on the entire spectrum of the foreign exchange market. We recommend not waiting for the official figures to be realized, but selling the dollar, since it might be too late.
Let us explain why exactly today the weak NFP data is so critical for the dollar. The fact is that the markets are increasingly being discounted for the rate decrease by the Fed in 2019.
In particular, the probability that the rate by the end of 2019 will be unchanged is less than 2%. Accordingly, with a 98% probability, it can be argued that the rate in 2019 will be lowered. There is almost a 90% chance that the rate will be reduced twice. At the same time, more than 50% of traders believe that the rate will be reduced 3 times. Plus there is another 17% chance that the rate will be reduced 4 times (!). Note that the probability of this event did not exceed 4% last week. That is, the probability increased by more than 4 times (!).in less than a week.
Weak NFP Data will provoke a slowdown and problems in the US economy, but also the Fed will lower rates aggressively. Perhaps at the next meeting in mid-June. Perhaps not by 0.25%, but by 0.5%.
Our positions today without any changes: we will continue to look for points for sales of the US dollar, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and the Japanese yen.
Italian Bank problems?ECB President Mario Draghi and other EU authorities are telling Italian banks to sell their bad debts,
since it’s choking their balance sheets to give new loans to new business, and support economic growth.
The central bank insists it can solve the problem on its own.
But let’s put a bit of meat on the issue: A problem of 379 Billion Dollar is not going to disappear without a bit of stimulus spending.
EURJPY LONG john silver Re-testing the channel
Relatively tight stop
Plenty of downside too if we see a break lower.
Eur-Usd - Forex Market Analysis Today Trader should be careful at the time of FED chair yellen and Ecb president Mario Draghi speech. There may be a chance of big bullish or bearish waves in forex market let me discuss about Eur-usd which is long term bullish but yellen words may change its direction. There is a good opportunity to buy Eur-usd around 1.1750 area with stop loss at 1.1650 and take profit at 1.1850 then 1.1940 any down wave will provide a great opportunity to open your buy trade. Eur-usd is overbought and there is a room to touch 1.2 area but be careful if yellen talk about to increase the interest rate on December then it will make usd strong and then usd will get investors focus.
eurjpy shortMy analysis is that euro will weak against jpy . It seems that EJ is making a new head & shoulder pattern.Kindly wait for confirmation candle before entry on the price and If the price goes up it will go until area 129.311 -129.561 and start sell again.
The price stuck twice on the EMA 50 which will make it even significant to go down.
My target the price will go down until area 127.562.
Trade safely .
EURUSD LONG My idea is that it seems the euro is going to go bulls for this week. please follow the Euro and trade safely guys
The king of turdsHe giveth and taketh away. Uncle MARIO laid another turd this morning sending the EURO straight down. The euro zone is in deep trouble and there is no reason to believe it will get better anytime soon. We are shorting pops.
Eurusd Short + long + ShortFor today will focus on European Central Bank (ECB) Governor Mario Draghi's speech this afternoon.
Draghi's last attempt to talk up the prospect of further easing at the ECB’s March meeting had the unusual effect of sending the euro higher.
Its your move DraghiNothing happens until the ECB interest rate announcement on Thursday (21st). We are on the sidelines but will be watching the break areas for direction. BE PATIENT and if you decide to trade tomorrow...USE TRIGGERS!
Potential Inflection in SLV: Price Action and OptionsThe iShares Silver Trust (SLV) has been beaten bad, falling over 13 percent prior to Friday’s rally. On a combination of low inflation and low growth, silver has fallen long out of favor with Wall Street (but remains a small investor’s favorite).
But, there are a couple factors that could signal, at least in the short-term, SLV may see some upside.
First, price action was able to trend along support at $13.35/30 that was created back on August 26, following the Black Monday event in equities; and it also represents a solid line of support on the weekly chart. Secondarily, the three percent move off of support was coupled will back-to-back sessions of heavy positive volume.
There is a daily bullish convergence in the +/- DMI, which suggests that positive price action is taken favor. The non-directional biased ADX is slopping downward, too, which may mean the downward trend could be taking a pause.
Even with some positive technicals, Friday’s move was fairly big and can tend to muddy near-term projections. Bulls still have several key resistance levels ahead of them, including dynamic resistance of both the 50- and 72-day EMA. However, if SLV can close above $14.10, traders could see a near-term boost to $14.42 and, potentially, $14.75.
There is some interesting options action, too. According to Nasdaq, there was particular options of interest in the January 2016 chain. The put contract at the $13.00 strike has a current bid of $.32, so if a trader was looking to sell-to-open, there would commit to purchasing SLV at $13.00/share but also receive the $.32 premium. This would then reduce their cost basis to $12.68. Not bad considering that it closed Friday at $13.87.
Precious metals received a boost Friday, after ECB President Mario Draghi promised there were “no limits” to the implementation of QE tools in the wayward attempt to spur growth via long-term monetary intervention.
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