Downloading...
Download

Marketcrash2022

What does a bull market look like?Sir John Templeton said: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.” Pessimism: Following the 2008 crisis, the global economy was engulfed in a cloud of pessimism. Investors were gripped by fear and uncertainty as financial institutions crumbled, economies contracted, and unemployment soared. Stock markets experienced significant declines, and investors became cautious, bracing themselves for further turbulence. This initial stage of pessimism laid the foundation for the birth of a new bull market. Skepticism: As the dust settled and economies started to stabilize, skepticism took hold. Investors remained cautious, wary of another downturn and skeptical about the sustainability of the recovery. However, as central banks and governments implemented unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus measures QE1,2 & 3, confidence began to slowly seep back into the markets. Gradually, investors started to see signs of improvement, albeit with a sense of skepticism. Optimism: The bull market gained momentum as skepticism transformed into optimism. Economic indicators started showing signs of recovery, corporate earnings improved, and investor sentiment shifted towards a more positive outlook. This stage witnessed increased buying activity, as investors sought to capitalize on the upward momentum. As the market continued to rally, optimism became the prevailing sentiment, driving prices higher. Euphoria: The final stage of a bull market is characterized by euphoria, a state of extreme excitement and irrational exuberance. During this phase, investors become overly optimistic, disregarding potential risks and buying into the market frenzy. This euphoria is often fueled by widespread media coverage and the fear of missing out (FOMO). In this stage, valuations may become detached from underlying fundamentals, leading to excessive speculation and a heightened risk of a market correction. Conclusion: Since the last cycle low established during the 2008 crisis, we have witnessed the birth and evolution of a remarkable bull market. From the depths of pessimism and fear, it grew through skepticism and optimism, ultimately reaching a state of euphoria. It is essential for investors to recognize these stages and exercise caution, especially during the euphoric phase when markets may be prone to excessive speculation and unsustainable valuations. While bull markets provide ample opportunities for wealth creation, it is crucial to remain vigilant and focus on long-term investment strategies that align with underlying fundamentals. By understanding the cyclical nature of bull markets, investors can navigate the ever-changing landscape of financial markets with greater confidence and resilience. Reference of Nasdaq: E-mini Nasdaq-100 & Opt Minimum fluctuation 0.25 index points = $5.00 Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index & Opt Minimum fluctuation 0.25 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by konhow
Bitcoin - An Unimpressive ClimaxThe motion of matter follows a law, and so does the price of stocks, commodities, bonds, and cryptocurrency. While you may want to see your bags reach $100,000 someday, if the Lords on Wall Street do not want to take the risk to facilitate your fantasy, then it will never happen. Crypto is inhered with enormous risks that were established in the same way that one wires a building to self destruct. You leave it alone and let it stand, making use of it, until it's time to bring it down. $65,000 was the top, and a return below the 2017 All Time High is a signal of the end, not a new beginning. Bitcoin is going to have a flaccid bounce, I believe very likely this week, to a number approximately $26,000. Ethereum and Bitcoin Cash will have much, much better % based runs, but will follow an overall similar pattern, for now. Afterwards, Bitcoin will begin to dump and the previous low of $17,500 will not hold. Where you're headed for is $14,500 and sub-$12,000. The bounces in this range are likely to be particularly flaccid and it may not last for very long. Bitcoin's ultimate target is three digits as it will be replaced by Central Bank Digital Currencies and will only remain traded as a relic of the past. Once futures are ultimately delisted from the CME, it will fall towards nothing. You should not have faith in any digital currency, for they have been occupied by the Chinese Communist Party and now serve as a vein of the CCP's international underground banking network. This network is operated by the Triad. If you understand what I am saying, you will understand why nobody is bullish on digital currencies. At some point, as the International Rules Based Order gets more and more strict with Xi Jinping, the U.S. government will put the clamps on fiat <--> crypto because the stablecoins are effectively counterfeit money. Short @~$26,000 with a stop around $28,500 gives you a 4:1 RR Don't listen to the moonbois on Twitter, Reddit, and Discord. They don't trade. They don't have money in the game. They're nocoiners. They sit in a cubicle being paid $15 an hour to convince you to lose your lifesavings like total losers. Danger abounds. Danger is imminent.
Short
by LordWrymouth
3
Trading View helped make me 4% in April when markets crashed Background: I have been a faltering trader for the past 11 years. I have had highs where I made 40-50% a year only to see it being wiped out by one trade. This is due to poor risk management or getting cocky and not accepting a loss when it hits me. I started off 2022 on a really good note making 8% in 2 months as you can see here. teenfxtrader.wordpress.com In March, I made one bad trade and wiped out all my profits. I took a 6 week break trying to get my head right and it was hard to get back to trading. I met one of my trading buddies and he confirmed that my technical prowess was still intact but my money management was poor. I then decided to start documenting all my trades on Trading View with my stop losses revealed. I post all my wins and losses to keep up the discipline including my account balance. This puts a lot of pressure on me to trade really properly as there is no hiding from my mistakes. (Btw, cutting losses is not a mistake - letting it float is the mistake most traders make) The other reason to start on Trading View My son who is 14, handles these posts together with me. He understands every chart that is posted here and his dream is to run a hedge fund some day. While I was able to trade really well, I could not teach him discipline that I didn't have. The 11 days that I have posted here has been amazing. He has truly seen what good traders can do and how you can make money despite cutting losses. Performance to date We are just getting started but I know as long as the discipline is kept, we will win 75% of the time. The key is not to let one trade destroy you. Here is what was achieved in April 2022. Total return from closed positions SGD399.92 Return rate 1.68 Your return rate is above 1. This means your strategy is making money. Learn More Win rate 72% 21 out of 29 trades were closed in profit. Learn More Profit/loss ratio 1.32:1 Average profit was SGD26.74 compared to an average loss of SGD-20.19. Learn More On the flipside, here is how the rest of the indexes fared: 2022 April DJIA Return -4.9% 2022 April S&P Return -8.8% 2022 April NASDAQ Return -13.3% I hope this is the start of a journey for my son to beat the market for the next 50-60 years. He truly enjoys the grind and I am glad I can teach him the right trading mindset from young. As you can see from our posts, our analysis for BTC, SPX, DJIA and the forex tools have been quite accurate. (Click play and you will be amazed at how good the turning points are). We hope you enjoy and follow and benefit from our postings. Cheers, Father and Son.
TVC:SPXShort
by JavonDias_Trading
2
The end of the Bull Market? A big drop is coming I do not trades stocks or indexes at all but technical analysis can be applied to any instrument so this is my view on the DJ Index. The DJI has had an incredible run since March 2020 (18183) to the high of 36855 made at the beginning of the year. What were the reasons for this? 1) Low to no interest policy of the FED 2) Optimism of recovery from Covid and vaccine discovery. 3) Free money being available and a lot of amateur traders getting into the market This Index however has run out of steam. Technically speaking, there are massive reversal signs that are in play since May 2021. 1) Weekly Overbought on RSI 2) RSI Divergence on the weekly chart 3) Head and shoulders pattern complete On a fundamental side we have: 1) Interest rate increase to combat inflation 2) The China lockdown 3) An energy crisis 4) The sad invasion of Ukraine The year long consolidation between 34000-36000 is a dire warning that the market is in consolidation for a big move. It is very unlikely to be up and we are looking at the intial levels of 30,0000 and then 26,000. If the consolidation lasts for a few months, these levels will not hold and we will see a bigger drop. There is no timeline on the weekly chart, but let's revisit this chart in July, October 2022 and January 2023 to see where the market is at.
TVC:DJIEducation
by JavonDias_Trading
8
Seven Year cycle! US market crash in 2022When we study Gann's theory and, in addition to macro and economic, we will also study the cycle of the stock market, that is, the cycle. the bullishness of U.S. stocks in 2021 is still overwhelming. What will happen to the stock market in 2022, what will happen to the economy in 2022, and what will happen to U.S. stocks in 2022? The U.S. stock market in 2022 or up to the seven-year cycle will have the opportunity to retrace, many people have asked, then today we explain again. In Gann's theory, "seven" is a very important and mysterious number. Gann believes that "seven days", "seven weeks", "July", "seven years" may be the inner cycle of a certain stock. In the past, Xiao Long has successfully predicted the bull market in 2017, the bear market in 2018 and the Hong Kong stock market crash in 2021 by using the 30-year cycle and the 10-year cycle. Biblical term called “Shemitah’ has caught the market attention. Shemitah, the last year of a seven-year cycle in the Jewish calendar, has several times in the past brought immense financial hardships to the world. U.S. stock valuations have been very expensive, Shiller P/E, or cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (Cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio) to see, the U.S. PE is already 38.77, is the second highest in history. But when to fall is the point. The economic cycle of U.S. stocks has a very obvious 7-year cycle. -In 1966, the United States experienced a "credit crunch". In August of the same year, the U.S. Treasury market suffered a severe "liquidity crisis. -In 1973, seven years later, the world suffered the "first oil crisis", with stock market and economic problems and the first stagflation. -Seven years later, in 1980, Wall Street forced the Hunt brothers to stop hoarding silver, which helped some banks and securities firms to avoid bankruptcy. -In October 1987, the Dow fell 22% in one day on "Black Monday". -Seven years later, in 1994, the FED raised interest rates six times in a row, and interest rates rose sharply from 3% to 6%, resulting in the most famous bond massacre in history. -Seven years later, in 2001, the Black Swan event of 9/11 triggered a severe setback in the global stock market, and the U.S. declared an emergency stock market closure from 9/11 to 9/14, but the market resumed on the 17th, the U.S. stocks still had a panic sale, the S&P 500 index opened at 1,092 points and closed almost at the low of 1,038 points, down 5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Index was killed to 8,883 points, down 7%, and the stock market fell 14% in one week. The 7-year cycle came to 2008, the financial tsunami, Hong Kong stocks and U.S. stocks plunged. -In 2015, Hong Kong stocks and U.S. stocks crash. -2022:? I would predict that in 2022, there may be a significant pullback in US stocks.
TVC:IXIC
by ericresearchgann
1