Marketcrash2025 — Trading Ideas on TradingView

BITCOIN 2025 - THE LAST HOPE CRYPTOCAP:BTC currently finds itself at the intersection of geopolitical tensions and broader macroeconomic uncertainty. Although traditionally viewed as a hedge against systemic risk, it is presently exhibiting characteristics more aligned with high-risk assets. The FED's forthcoming policy decisions will likely play a pivotal role in determining whether Bitcoin stabilizes or experiences further downward pressure. The chart represents the most optimistic scenario for Bitcoin to date

Russell 2000: How deep can the Bear Market go?As the markets navigate uncertainty, the Russell 2000 appears to have entered a #bearmarket, contrasting with other indices that are still correcting. A pressing question looms: Has the market correction concluded, or are we on the brink of a broader bear market? Last Friday's market turmoil saw panic-like sell-offs, deeply affecting major U.S. and European #stocks with losses ranging from 6% to over 10%. Such widespread sell-offs suggest a panic reaction, possibly indicating a market bottom. However, panic alone cannot confirm this hypothesis. To evaluate the likelihood of a deeper bear market and potential buying opportunities, several factors need consideration. Currently, the Russell 2000 is approximately 30% down from its previous all-time high. Technically, it rests in a horizontal support zone. However, the strength of this zone is debatable. Let’s explore why. The initial moves by President Trump to impose reciprocal tariffs have already been felt, but the reactions of other nations remain unpredictable. Should other countries react strongly or if further tariffs and legal changes are introduced by President Trump, we could be heading toward a global trade war. Such a development could compromise the support zone, potentially driving the Russell 2000 down by 50%, reminiscent of the COVID-19 pandemic drop in 2020. A target range of 1250–1200 points could thus be realistic. If the situation deteriorates further and we revisit pandemic lows, the Russell 2000 could plummet by nearly 60%, reaching as low as 950 points, mirroring the 2020 scenario. I've recently suggested that this scenario may be the right time to cautiously start building small positions, considering additional declines could occur. A cautious and incremental market entry is a wise strategy during such uncertain periods. We hope this focused analysis on the #Russell2000 provides valuable insights as you navigate these turbulent times.

SPY to Crash to $350s by May People fail to realize how dramatic market crashes can be. Historically bear markets have seen 30%+ declines from peak. We are going to see a 40%-50% decline from peak down to 350s by May. With 1 or 2 exceptions, rate cutting cycles have always coincided with bear markets, which are 30%+ declines from peak in the S&P 500. We have the largest spike in unemployment since covid, largest drop off in real estate sales, massive AI bubble in tech stocks, Q1 GDP falling off a cliff to -2.8%, the list goes on and on.

Stock market correction in 2025??I personally believe we'll see a stock market correction in 2025. 1. 30yr treasury yield going higher while FED cut interest rates. Similar situation in 1970s and 1980s where we say a 50% correction in just 2 years in the 1970s (can't remember exact dates) 2. US 10yr/3m yield curve has turned positive. Last times it's done this has been 2000, 2008 and 2020. I'm guessing you know what happened each of those times. 3. Institutional investors increasing long contracts in the yen. The Japanese Yen is a 'risk-off' investment and investors tend to favour it when they don't have much faith in the stock market. 4. US have a volatile president in Trump. The power also seems to be getting to his head a bit - he disagrees with Fed Chair Powell over interest rates, despite not being as educated in economics. He has a lot of power right now and I don't think he will be able to stop a potential market crash for the first year or 2 of his presidency. 5. Back-to-back 20%+ years from the S&P500, could be due a pullback. These are some reasons, I have some more but I don't want to be sat here writing all day. Important to note that if you're a long term investor it's best to just ignore this. "Time in the markets beats timing the markets" as they say. But if you're a day trader I wouldn't be taking many long positions on stocks this year. Could be better to start looking at opportunities in the currency markets. Then again - you don't have to trust me. This isn't financial advice, just my opinion.