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BITCOIN - Analyzing previous Bitcoin cycles combined with DataIf you look at the monthly chart of Bitcoin and examine the three previous cycles in crypto, you can see where we currently stand. This doesn’t guarantee that we’ll go up from here, but it does show that the chart often follows a similar pattern every cycle. Price movements are a universal phenomenon seen across all charts in various sectors, not just crypto. Often, you’ll notice an asset testing its all-time high (ATH) and then taking a “breath.” After that, the asset typically moves beyond its ATH and embarks on a bullish journey. The market tends to become more greedy once it surpasses the ATH because it means everyone in the market is in profit. Of course, it depends on what you bought, but the principle remains the same. I see a lot of people worried about where we’re headed next. Nothing is for certain, but stop reading the news and worrying about recessions. England and Germany are currently in recessions and have just broken their ATHs. Recessions have nothing to do with price action. Many are also concerned that the markets will crash once the rate cut season starts, which is highly likely to occur in September. However, historical data suggests otherwise. If you look back 70 years, the S&P 500 has averaged an 11% return one year after the first rate cut. By using data and following cycles, like the one below and the 18.6-year real estate and economic cycle, it becomes much easier to handle the drawdowns and negativity you hear around you. Using Fibonacci retracement, I believe we could see a top for Bitcoin around $150-200K before the next bear market.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by WealthNode
Daily Market Analysis - WEDNESDAY JULY 05, 2023Key News: USA - FOMC Meeting Minutes Following a shortened regular session on Monday, US stock futures displayed a varied pattern during evening deals. Notably, Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) witnessed a significant surge of 6.9% as a result of exceeding delivery and production expectations. The trading session concluded on a mixed note, with US stock futures reflecting divergent trends as investors reacted to the latest developments. Tesla Inc, the renowned electric vehicle manufacturer, emerged as a standout performer during this period. The company experienced a remarkable upswing of 6.9%, largely attributed to surpassing expectations in terms of both deliveries and production figures. Investors responded positively to Tesla's impressive performance, fueling optimism about the company's growth prospects. The notable surge in stock value serves as a testament to the market's confidence in Tesla's ability to deliver strong results and capitalize on the growing demand for electric vehicles. While other stock futures exhibited a more varied pattern, Tesla's exceptional performance contributed to the overall mixed nature of the evening deals. As investors assess the broader market landscape and navigate various factors impacting the financial markets, the strong showing by Tesla stands out as a notable highlight, capturing attention and generating excitement among market participants. Tesla stock daily chart At 19:00 ET (23:00 GMT), the futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average showed no significant change, maintaining stability in the evening trading session. Concurrently, the futures for the S&P 500 experienced a slight uptick of 0.1%, indicating a modest increase in value. In contrast, the futures for the Nasdaq 100 observed a minor decline of 0.2%, signaling a slight decrease in anticipated performance for the tech-heavy index. During this time, market participants closely monitored these futures indicators, seeking insights into the potential direction of the broader stock market. The stability in Dow Jones futures suggested a steady outlook for the industrial average, while the slight increase in S&P 500 futures indicated a positive sentiment among investors. However, the modest decline in Nasdaq 100 futures hinted at a relatively weaker performance for technology stocks. These movements in futures reflected the ongoing dynamics and sentiments surrounding the financial markets. Traders and investors assessed various factors, such as economic data, corporate earnings, geopolitical events, and market trends, to make informed decisions regarding their positions and strategies. While Dow Jones futures remained unchanged, and S&P 500 futures showed a modest increase, the slight decline in Nasdaq 100 futures added a layer of caution to the market environment. It highlighted the potential challenges and uncertainties faced by technology companies and the influence they might have on the overall market performance. As the trading session progressed, market participants continued to monitor these futures indicators, along with other relevant factors, to gain further insights and make informed decisions about their investment strategies. DJI and SPX indices daily chart In the afternoon of the previous day, the Australian dollar witnessed a decline in response to the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decision to leave the policy rate unchanged at 4.10%. The AUD/USD exchange rate dropped towards 0.6650, indicating a decrease in the value of the Australian dollar against the US dollar. Similarly, the AUD/NZD rate approached 1.0825, reflecting a weakening of the Australian dollar relative to the New Zealand dollar. The decision by the RBA to keep the policy rate unchanged surprised some market participants who had adjusted their expectations for consecutive rate hikes. This adjustment reflected a shift towards a more cautious approach from the RBA in terms of tightening monetary policy. Prior to the announcement, economists surveyed by Bloomberg held mixed views on whether the RBA would choose to implement another rate hike or maintain the existing policy rate. The divergence in expectations among economists and market participants underscores the uncertainty surrounding the RBA's future policy decisions. Traders and investors closely monitored the central bank's statements and actions for any indications of the direction of monetary policy. The outcome of the RBA's decision had a direct impact on the Australian dollar's performance, leading to fluctuations in currency pairs such as AUD/USD and AUD/NZD. As the market continues to digest the RBA's decision and assess the potential implications for the Australian dollar, market participants will closely follow any updates or communications from the central bank that could provide further insights into its future monetary policy stance. These developments will shape market sentiment and influence trading strategies related to the Australian dollar in the days ahead. AUD/USD daily chart The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), in its policy statement, provided reasoning for its decision to keep the policy rates unchanged for the current month. The central bank highlighted the importance of assessing the effects of previous rate increases and closely evaluating the overall economic outlook before making any further adjustments to the rates. While the RBA acknowledged a decline in the May monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicator, they maintained the view that inflation levels were still "too high" and expected to remain elevated for a significant period. This suggests that the RBA is keeping a close eye on inflationary pressures in the economy and is cautious about taking any actions that could potentially exacerbate the situation. By opting to maintain the current rates, the RBA aims to monitor the impact of its past policy decisions on inflation and the broader economy. This approach allows them to gather more data and assess the effectiveness of their previous rate increases. By doing so, the central bank can gain a better understanding of the overall economic conditions and make informed decisions about the future course of monetary policy. The RBA's emphasis on the elevated inflation levels suggests that they are committed to managing price stability and ensuring that inflation remains within their target range over the long term. This cautious stance is likely driven by their objective to strike a balance between supporting economic growth and preventing any significant inflationary pressures that could harm the economy. US Dollar Currency Index The Dollar Index, a measure of the value of the U.S. dollar against a basket of major currencies, showed stability at 103.07, indicating a slight increase from the previous day's level of 102.92. This stability came amidst the expansion of the yield curve inversion in the United States between the 2-year and 10-year treasury yields. A yield curve inversion refers to a situation where shorter-term government securities, such as the 2-year treasury bonds, yield higher returns compared to longer-term bonds, such as the 10-year treasury bonds. This inversion is often seen as a potential signal of an economic downturn or recession, as it reflects investors' concerns about the future outlook of the economy. The expansion of the yield curve inversion implies that the gap between the yields of the 2-year and 10-year treasury bonds has widened. This can be interpreted as an indication of increased uncertainty and risk aversion in the market. Investors may be seeking the safety of longer-term bonds, pushing their yields lower, while demanding higher returns for holding shorter-term bonds. The impact of the yield curve inversion on the Dollar Index is multifaceted. On one hand, the inversion can be viewed as a sign of economic weakness, which may undermine confidence in the U.S. dollar and potentially lead to a decline in its value. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar is often seen as a safe-haven currency during times of market uncertainty, and increased risk aversion could lead investors to seek the relative stability of the dollar, supporting its value. The stability of the Dollar Index at 103.07 suggests that market participants are currently weighing the implications of the yield curve inversion and assessing its impact on the overall currency market. As economic data and market conditions evolve, investors will continue to monitor the yield curve dynamics and their potential influence on the U.S. dollar and other currencies. USD/JPY daily chart The US Dollar held its ground against the Japanese Yen, trading at 144.45, a marginal increase from the previous level of 144.40. This stability came in response to warnings issued by Japanese officials regarding excessive selling of the Yen. Masato Kanda, Japan's top currency diplomat, emphasized that authorities were in close communication with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and maintaining ongoing dialogue with various countries regarding currency matters. The comments from Japanese officials aimed to address concerns about the weakening of the Yen, indicating their willingness to take appropriate measures if the currency were to weaken excessively. Such warnings and efforts to maintain communication with international counterparts demonstrate Japan's commitment to stability in the foreign exchange market. The US Dollar's stability against the Yen can be attributed to the market's response to these statements. Traders may have refrained from excessive selling of the Yen out of caution, given the potential intervention by Japanese authorities. This balanced approach helps to mitigate significant fluctuations in the USD/JPY exchange rate. The USD/JPY pair is influenced by a variety of factors, including economic indicators, monetary policy decisions, and geopolitical developments. In this case, the comments from Japanese officials added an element of stability to the currency pair, as market participants assessed the potential implications of any intervention measures that may be taken. As the situation evolves, traders will continue to monitor the communications between Japanese and US authorities, as well as other factors that can influence the USD/JPY exchange rate. Market sentiment, economic data releases, and geopolitical developments will all play a role in shaping the future direction of the pair. EUR/USD and GBP/USD daily charts In a quiet trading session, the Euro (EUR/USD) faced a slight decline, slipping from 1.0910 to 1.0882. Conversely, the British Pound (GBP/USD) showed strength, rallying by 0.20% to 1.2715 compared to the previous level of 1.2695. The Pound's upward movement was spurred by a statement from UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, highlighting the government's commitment to employ both monetary and fiscal policies fully in order to address concerns about inflation. Sunak's remarks reassured market participants, signaling that the UK government is prepared to take necessary measures to tackle rising inflationary pressures. This proactive stance from policymakers boosted confidence in the Pound, leading to its gains against the US Dollar. The Euro's dip in value against the US Dollar can be attributed to the subdued trading conditions and perhaps a lack of significant catalysts during the session. The Eurozone's economic performance and other factors influencing the Euro may have contributed to the minor decline. As the market awaits further developments, traders will closely monitor any updates regarding inflation and the actions taken by central banks and governments to address the economic challenges. Economic data releases, monetary policy decisions, and geopolitical events will continue to influence the dynamics of the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs in the days ahead. XAU/USD daily chart Gold has shown a modest recovery in the past three sessions after dropping below the key support level of $1,900 per ounce last week. The main driver of the downward pressure on gold prices has been the concern over increasing US interest rates. Investor attention is currently focused on the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting, as they seek further insights into the future trajectory of US interest rates. While the central bank decided to keep rates unchanged last month, they had indicated the possibility of at least two more rate hikes this year due to persistently high inflation. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has reiterated this stance in recent testimonies and speeches over the past two weeks. Market expectations currently indicate an 88% probability of a 25 basis point rate increase by the central bank in July. Although recent data showed a decline in overall US inflation, core inflation remains stubbornly high and above the Fed's target range. This trend suggests potential further pressure on gold in the coming months, although the metal has also witnessed some safe-haven demand due to expectations of a potential US recession. Analysts at IG have mentioned that they would adopt a positive stance on spot gold if it manages to surpass a resistance level ranging between $1,925 to $1,935 per ounce. In today's economic calendar, the Eurozone will release its June Producer Price Index (PPI) data, with a forecasted month-on-month decrease of -1.8% (compared to -3.2% previously) and a year-on-year decrease of -1.3% (compared to -1.0%). Meanwhile, the United Kingdom will publish its S&P Global Final Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June, with a forecasted reading of 53.7 (compared to 55.2 previously). In the United States, the May Factory Orders data will be released, with a forecasted month-on-month increase of 0.8% (compared to 0.4% previously). Additionally, the May Core Factory Orders, excluding transportation, are expected to show a month-on-month increase of 0.3% (compared to -0.2% previously). Lastly, the US will release the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for July, with a forecasted reading of 43 (compared to 41.7 previously). These data releases will provide further insights into the economic conditions and sentiment, potentially impacting the financial markets including gold.
by FOREXN1
11
Daily Market Analysis - FRIDAY JUNE 30, 2023Key News: UK - GDP (YoY) (Q1) UK - GDP (QoQ) (Q1) Eurozone - CPI (YoY) (Jun) USA - Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (May) Thursday witnessed a modest upturn in US stock indices, primarily driven by a surge in bank shares following the Federal Reserve's positive outcome of the annual stress test. Moreover, the release of robust economic data further fueled expectations of additional interest rate hikes by the central bank. Prominent financial institutions like Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase experienced notable increases in their share prices, surpassing 3% and 4% respectively. This surge can be attributed to the stress test results, which showcased their resilience and ability to withstand a severe economic downturn. The S&P 500 banks index, reflecting the performance of major banks, witnessed a noteworthy climb of over 2%. This rise contributed to a broader relief rally, which in turn boosted the KBW Regional Banking index by 1.5%. Wells Frago stock daily chart Goldman Sachs stock daily chart S&P 500 daily chart Investors exhibited a clear inclination towards economically sensitive sectors, while growth sectors tied to interest rates experienced less activity, thanks to positive data that alleviated concerns of an imminent recession. The Russell 2000 index, which encompasses small-cap stocks, witnessed a notable gain of over 1%. This rise indicated investors' confidence in smaller companies and their potential for economic growth. Among the sectors within the S&P 500, the materials index emerged as the leader of the upswing. This sector's strong performance further reinforced the market's preference for areas tied to economic expansion and industrial activity. Nasdaq daily chart The US dollar index, a measure of the USD's performance against a basket of major currencies, surged to a two-week high in response to encouraging economic data that highlighted a strong labor market. This positive development potentially grants the Federal Reserve the flexibility to continue its trajectory of raising interest rates. The dollar index experienced a 0.35% climb, reaching a level of 103.310. This marks its highest point since June 13 when it peaked at 103.44. The strengthening of the US dollar indicates the market's response to the optimistic economic indicators, suggesting an increased likelihood of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. US Dollar Currency Index daily chart Market expectations for a 25 basis-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve at its upcoming July meeting experienced an increase, rising from 81.8% in the previous session to 86.8%, as reported by CME's FedWatch Tool. This higher probability indicates a growing anticipation among market participants for the central bank to raise interest rates. Furthermore, the likelihood of a rate cut occurring later in the year has been entirely ruled out. This suggests that market sentiment has shifted towards a more hawkish outlook, with reduced expectations for accommodative monetary policy measures such as rate cuts. The market's assessment aligns with the evolving economic landscape and positive data that may provide the Federal Reserve with the impetus to tighten monetary policy in response to a robust economy. USD/JPY daily chart The US dollar continued to exhibit strength against the Japanese yen, extending its streak for the third consecutive day and reaching a fresh 7.5-month high at 144.90 yen. The persistent divergence in monetary policy plans between the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan is expected to contribute to the yen's ongoing weakness against the dollar. The yen declined by 0.23% against the greenback, resulting in an exchange rate of 144.83 yen per dollar. Investors are attentively monitoring any potential intervention by the Bank of Japan in the currency, as it has occurred previously around the 145 yen level. Meanwhile, gold prices remained relatively unchanged and reflected significant losses for the month of June. This decline can be attributed to robust economic data from the United States, which bolstered risk appetite and raised concerns about potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Earlier in the week, gold prices hit three-month lows, largely driven by a series of hawkish signals from Fed officials, with particular emphasis placed on comments made by Chair Jerome Powell. On Friday, the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE), the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, is scheduled for May. Economists surveyed by Reuters anticipate that core rates will remain stable at 4.7%, providing insight into the level of inflationary pressures.
by FOREXN1
5
Daily Market Analysis - MONDAY JUNE 26, 2023The momentum of stocks is affected by global growth concerns and central bank actions, while the euro experiences an upswing. Key News: Eurozone - ECB McCaul Speaks Eurozone - ECB President Lagarde Speaks The US stock market is currently experiencing a decline amidst deteriorating global growth forecasts, primarily attributed to weak global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) readings. This worrisome trend is particularly prominent in Europe, where the risk of a severe economic downturn is higher compared to the United States. Consequently, the dollar is expected to maintain its support in the short term due to these circumstances. Throughout this week, stocks have faced unfavorable conditions, resulting in the unraveling of various trades involving large-cap technology companies. Specifically, the Nasdaq index is taking a considerable hit, predominantly due to profit-taking in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector. The prevailing sentiment among investors is to withdraw their profits from AI-related investments, contributing to the downward pressure on the Nasdaq. Nasdaq daily chart Looking ahead to the upcoming week, the focus will shift towards a fresh wave of inflation releases following the conclusion of major central bank decisions. The euro has experienced a robust month, benefiting from the market's anticipation of the European Central Bank (ECB) adopting a more aggressive approach in raising interest rates compared to previous expectations. Despite signs of moderating inflation and sluggish economic activity, the ECB has expressed its intention to pursue higher rates. However, this commitment may carry risks in the long term, potentially limiting the ECB's flexibility in responding to changing economic conditions. Nevertheless, the rally in European yields has made the euro an increasingly attractive investment option for market participants. Furthermore, the weakness observed in the US dollar and the Japanese yen has provided additional support to the euro, as foreign exchange dynamics are often influenced by relative performance. EUR/USD daily chart As we look to the future, a critical question arises regarding the momentum of the euro's rally. The answer to this question is likely to be influenced by the forthcoming inflation report scheduled for release on Friday and its implications for the European Central Bank's (ECB) future decisions. Throughout this year, inflation has displayed a consistent downward trend, and recent business surveys indicate that this trend has persisted into June. Notably, selling prices have been rising at the slowest pace in over two years, further contributing to the overall picture of declining inflationary pressures. In terms of market performance, the DAX index has witnessed a notable decline, predominantly driven by a sharp decrease in the shares of Siemens Energy. The company's stock plummeted by over 30% following its decision to withdraw its full-year guidance due to challenges faced by its Spanish Gamesa operation. This development has had a significant impact on the DAX index's overall performance and has garnered attention from market participants. DAX daily chart In a similar vein, the FTSE 100 index has encountered downward pressure, resulting in a decline below the crucial 7,500 level. This descent has brought the index back to levels observed earlier in the trading period, reminiscent of the beginning of the year. The FTSE 100's retreat reflects the prevailing market sentiment and highlights the challenges and uncertainties currently influencing the broader market landscape. FTSE 100 daily chart In the United States, the week will commence with the unveiling of significant economic indicators, including durable goods orders and new home sales for the month of May on Tuesday. This will be followed by the release of crucial data on Friday, including the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, personal consumption, and income figures for the same month. In recent weeks, there has been a notable back-and-forth between Federal Reserve officials and market participants, resembling a game of chicken. While policymakers have signaled their intention to implement two more interest rate hikes throughout the remainder of the year, investors have only priced in expectations for one. The ultimate determinant of who is right in this scenario will depend on the persistency of inflationary pressures. The outcome will carry implications for the performance of the US dollar, as its value is intricately linked to interest rate differentials and market expectations. US Dollar Currency Index daily chart Throughout this month, the US dollar has encountered downward pressure, primarily influenced by two factors. Firstly, there has been market skepticism surrounding the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals, which has created uncertainty among investors. Secondly, the prevailing optimistic sentiment in stock markets has reduced the demand for safe-haven assets, including the US dollar. Gold, on the other hand, has faced a challenging couple of months as Wall Street anticipates more aggressive tightening measures from central banks across Europe. The strong demand for Treasuries, driven by investor concerns about the global growth outlook, has caused the dollar to rally. However, as the stock market experiences a more pronounced selloff, gold is beginning to attract safe-haven flows. This is evident as gold prices have fallen to the $1920 level, prompting some investors to seek refuge in the precious metal as a hedge against market volatility and uncertainty. XAU/USD daily chart Gold received an additional boost when Federal Reserve official Bostic expressed his preference for no further rate hikes for the remainder of the year. This sentiment supported the precious metal's rebound. However, the momentum of the rebound waned when the latest PMI data failed to demonstrate sufficient weakness in the service sector, which would have justified a pause in rate hikes. Looking ahead, the upcoming week will play a crucial role in shaping expectations regarding future Fed rate hikes. This will be influenced by the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) readings and remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Powell. If market participants, as reflected in swap futures, start to believe that the Fed is likely to implement two more rate increases, gold may remain vulnerable. However, if risk aversion intensifies and investors seek safe-haven assets, gold could experience an influx of buying pressure. Key support for gold is anticipated at the $1900 level, indicating a price level where buying interest could emerge. On the other hand, resistance is likely to be encountered around the $1960 region, signifying a level where selling pressure may intensify. These levels will be closely monitored by traders and investors as they assess the future trajectory of gold prices.
by FOREXN1
9