XAUUSD 30M - OB SELL LIMIT for 2.5R SETUP by PhoenixFXGold 30M Analysis – Smart Money Setup
We've spotted a clean Order Block on the 30-minute timeframe and are planning a sell limit based on smart money principles. The setup offers a solid 2.5R risk-to-reward ratio, making it ideal for those who prefer "set & forget" trades.
📍 ENTRY: 3378
🛑 SL: 3388 (above a previous high)
🎯 TP1: 3368 (1R)
🎯 TP2: 3358 (2R)
🎯 TP3: 3353 (2.5R)
We're expecting a reaction from the 30M supply zone after signs of weakening bullish momentum. This is a clean structure-based short opportunity with precise risk management. 📉
🚨 This setup was also shared publicly in our Telegram channel – stay tuned for more!
#XAUUSD #Gold #OrderBlock #SmartMoney #SupplyAndDemand #PhoenixFX
Metals
Double Top + Zigzag Complete: Are Bears About to Take Over Gold?Yesterday, the financial markets in general, including Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) , acted like a roller coaster after the news of Powell's dismissal . After this news was denied , Gold returned to its main trend, which I published in my previous idea .
Gold is currently re-attacking the Support line , Support zone($3,326-$3,325) and 50_SMA(Daily) .
In terms of classic technical analysis , it seems that gold has formed a Double Top Pattern for support breakdowns, where a Support line breakdown can also be accompanied by a neckline breakdown .
From the perspective of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that Gold has managed to complete the Zigzag Correction(ABC/5-3-5) , and we should wait for the next bearish waves .
I expect Gold to break its supports and move towards $3,290 ; support breaks are best done with high momentum . An important price that can change the direction of Gold's downside is $3,350 .
Note: If Gold breaks the Resistance lines and forms an hourly candle above $3,351(Stop Loss (SL)), we can expect further Gold gains.
Gold Analyze (XAUUSD), 2-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅ ' like ' ✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
EURJPY Hits Major Weekly Supply | Is the Bull Run Over?EUR/JPY – Institutional Macro Context (COT)
EUR (Euro)
Non-commercials net longs increased by +16,146 → strong buying.
Commercials added +25,799 long positions.
✅ Bias: Moderately bullish.
JPY (Japanese Yen)
Non-commercials decreased longs by -4,432.
Commercials cut -20,405 long contracts.
❌ Bias: Bearish pressure remains on JPY.
Conclusion (COT): EUR remains fundamentally strong, JPY structurally weak. Institutional flows favor long EUR/JPY, but positioning is stretched.
Seasonality (July)
EURJPY shows strong bullish seasonality in July, especially over the 2Y and 5Y averages (+1.03% and +0.66% respectively).
✅ Seasonality bias: Bullish.
Retail Sentiment
89% of traders are short on EUR/JPY.
Contrarian bias = bullish confirmation.
Technical Analysis (Weekly View)
Price is pushing into a major weekly supply zone around 172.50–173.00.
RSI still elevated but showing signs of weakening momentum.
Potential double top structure forming in confluence with liquidity grab.
First downside target sits around 169.50 (daily demand zone).
Awaiting a reaction in supply and confirmation for short.
Trading Plan (Top-Down)
Wait for price to reject the 172.50–173.00 area
Watch for bearish confirmation on Daily (engulfing or lower high)
Target: 169.50 zone
Risk: tight above 173.20 (invalidating supply zone)
Gold 1H - Retest of channel & support zone at 3340After breaking out of the falling channel, gold is currently retesting its upper boundary — now acting as support. The 3340 zone is particularly important as it aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci level and high volume node on the visible range volume profile. The price action suggests a potential bullish rejection from this area. With both the 50 and 200 EMA below price on the 1H, the short-term trend remains bullish. The 4H trendline further supports this setup. RSI is cooling off near the neutral zone, leaving room for another leg higher toward the 3377 resistance zone. If 3340 fails, 3324 (0.786 Fibo) becomes the next line of defense. Until then, the structure remains bullish following the successful breakout and retest of the channel.
Platinum: Breaking the Supply Barrier?I'm adding a second Platinum position. Price has hit a strong weekly supply area, also a significant monthly supply zone. I'm anticipating a reversal here, as non-commercial holdings are decreasing, and seasonal patterns suggest a potential trend change. To further capitalize on potential upside, I've placed a pending order above the primary supply zone, at a slightly higher, but still relevant. These are older, established and fresh supply zones.
(Note: Reducing the chart size may help to better visualize the long-term significance of these overlapping areas.)
✅ Please share your thoughts about PL1! in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
18/07 Gold Outlook Market Tensions Mount Liquidity Zones in Play Gold Outlook – Market Tensions Mount, Liquidity Zones in Play
Price action heats up as we enter the final trading day of the week. Are you ready to ride the wave or get caught in the liquidity sweep?
🔍 Market Sentiment & Global Highlights
Gold rebounded strongly after dropping on better-than-expected US data. However, several macro risks are keeping gold buyers in the game:
Buy-the-dip activity emerged amid concerns that Trump’s tariff policies may fuel inflation.
Rate cut expectations remain strong as US core inflation shows no signs of cooling.
Geopolitical risks intensified as Israel conducted fresh airstrikes on Syria.
EU threatens $84B in tariffs on US goods should trade talks break down.
💡 These tensions are giving gold strong support — especially as traders prepare for potential volatility into the weekend.
📈 Technical Overview – Liquidity Zones at Play
Yesterday's bounce from FLZ H2 (3310) — a critical demand and liquidity zone — triggered a clean reversal. Sellers took profit, volume shifted, and buyers regained control. Price has since pushed up to retest the OBS SELL ZONE + CP Pattern near the 334x area with a sharp reaction.
For today, price is likely to revisit lower liquidity pockets (M30–H2) before making the next directional move.
🔑 Key Levels to Watch
🟢 BUY ZONE: 3318 – 3316
Stop Loss: 3312
Take Profits: 3322 – 3326 – 3330 – 3335 – 3340 – 3345 – 3350 – 3360+
⚡ BUY SCALP ZONE: 3326 – 3324
Stop Loss: 3320
Take Profits: 3330 – 3335 – 3340 – 3345 – 3350 – 3360
🔴 SELL ZONE: 3363 – 3365
Stop Loss: 3370
Take Profits: 3360 – 3355 – 3350 – 3346 – 3342 – 3338 – 3335 – 3330
⚠️ Final Notes
Today’s session has no major news releases, but as it’s the end of the week, we may see liquidity grabs and unexpected volatility. Stay disciplined, stick to your plan, and always respect TP/SL.
🔔 Follow the key zones carefully – volatility loves indecision.
Gold - The clear top formation!🪙Gold ( TVC:GOLD ) just created a top formation:
🔎Analysis summary:
Over the past four months, Gold has overall been moving sideways. Following a previous blow-off rally of about +25%, this cycle is very similar to the 2008 bullish cycle. Bulls are starting to slow down which will most likely result in the creation of at least a short term top formation.
📝Levels to watch:
$3.000
🙏🏻#LONGTERMVISION
Philip - Swing Trader
XAUUSD 24-Hour Technical Analysis Forecast - UTC+4 Current Price: $3,350.095 (Close: Friday, July 18th, 2025) UTC+4
Analysis Period : Next 24 Hours (July 21-22, 2025) UTC+4
Market Status: Weekend - Preparing for Monday Open 02:00AM 21st July 2025
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - 24H OUTLOOK
Primary Bias: Neutral to Bearish (Short-term)
Key Resistance: $3,375 - $3,390
Critical Support: $3,285 - $3,300
Expected Range: $3,300 - $3,380
Volatility Level: Moderate to High
CANDLESTICK PATTERN ANALYSIS
Friday's Close Formation
Pattern: Doji-like formation at resistance zone
Significance: Indecision after testing $3,350+ levels
Volume: Moderate - no strong conviction breakout
Context: Failed to close decisively above $3,375 resistance
Expected 24H Patterns
Monday Gap: Potential gap down to $3,320-3,330 area
Reversal Patterns: Watch for hammer/doji at support levels
Continuation Signals: Break below $3,300 could trigger bearish continuation
HARMONIC PATTERN ANALYSIS
Current Harmonic Setup
Primary Pattern: Potential Bearish Bat completing
X: $3,285 (previous low)
A: $3,390 (recent high)
B: $3,320 (61.8% retracement)
C: $3,375 (78.6% projection - current area)
D (Target): $3,300-3,285 (88.6% completion zone)
Fibonacci Levels (24H Focus)
Golden Ratio Resistance: $3,375 (current test area)
61.8% Support: $3,320
78.6% Support: $3,300
88.6% Critical Support: $3,285
Pattern Completion Probabilities
Bearish Bat Completion: 70% probability targeting $3,285-3,300
Bullish Cypher Setup: 30% if break above $3,390
ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY - 24H COUNT
Primary Wave Count
Macro Structure: Wave 5 of larger impulse possibly topping
Current Sub-wave: Wave (c) of corrective structure
Mini Count: 5-wave decline from $3,390 high in progress
24-Hour Wave Projection
Wave 1: $3,390 → $3,320 (Completed)
Wave 2: $3,320 → $3,360 (Completed - 50% retrace)
Wave 3: $3,360 → $3,285 (In Progress - Target Area)
Wave 4: $3,285 → $3,310 (Projected)
Wave 5: $3,310 → $3,260 (Extended target)
Critical Levels
Wave 3 = 1.618 × Wave 1: $3,285 (Primary target)
Invalidation: Above $3,390 (Wave 2 high)
WYCKOFF THEORY - 24H PHASE
Current Market Phase
Phase Assessment: Distribution Phase C (Testing Supply)
Composite Operator Action: Testing demand at $3,350 area
Volume Analysis: Declining volume on recent rallies (bearish)
Expected 24H Wyckoff Action
Phase Transition: Moving toward Phase D (Markdown begins)
Supply Test: Failed test at $3,375 confirms distribution
Target: Initial markdown to $3,285-3,300 area
Key Wyckoff Signals (24H)
No Demand: Expected at current levels
Selling Climax: Possible if break below $3,285 with high volume
Automatic Rally: Dead cat bounce to $3,320-3,330
W.D. GANN THEORY - 24H ANALYSIS
Square of Nine Analysis
Current Position: 3350° on Gann wheel
Next Cardinal Point: 3375° (90° angle - strong resistance)
Support Angles: 3300° (natural support), 3285° (critical angle)
Geometric Progression: $3,285 = perfect square root relationship
Time Theory - 24H Cycle
Natural Time Window: 24-hour cycle from Friday's high
Critical Time: 14:00-16:00 UTC Monday (historical turning point)
Lunar Influence: New moon phase approaching (bearish for commodities)
Angle Theory
45° Line: Currently at $3,320 (rising support)
63.75° Line: $3,285 (steep support angle)
26.25° Line: $3,375 (resistance angle)
Price Forecasting (Gann Methods)
Primary Target: $3,285 (Square root of 81²)
Secondary Target: $3,240 (Square root of 80²)
Resistance: $3,375 (Square root of 82.5²)
Time Forecasting
Turn Time 1: 06:00 UTC Monday (18 hours from Friday close)
Turn Time 2: 14:00 UTC Monday (26 hours from Friday close)
Major Turn: 22:00 UTC Monday (34 hours - Fibonacci time)
MULTI-TIMEFRAME INTRADAY ANALYSIS
5-Minute Chart Analysis
Trend: Bearish momentum building
Pattern: Lower highs, lower lows since Friday high
Key Levels:
Resistance: $3,360-3,365
Support: $3,330-3,335
RSI: Approaching oversold (35-40 range)
Volume: Increasing on down moves
15-Minute Chart Analysis
Structure: Bearish flag formation
Breakdown Level: Below $3,340
Target: $3,300-3,310 (flag pole projection)
Moving Averages: Price below EMA 20 ($3,358)
MACD: Bearish crossover confirmed
30-Minute Chart Analysis
Primary Trend: Corrective phase active
Chart Pattern: Descending triangle
Apex: Around $3,335-3,340
Breakout Direction: 65% probability downward
Volume Profile: Heavy selling at $3,350-3,375
1-Hour Chart Analysis
Major Structure: ABC correction in progress
Current Position: C-wave development
Fibonacci Target: $3,285 (127.2% extension)
Bollinger Bands: Price touching lower band
Stochastic: Oversold but no divergence yet
4-Hour Chart Analysis
Macro Trend: Still bullish above $3,200
Correction Depth: 23.6% retracement maximum expected
Support Zone: $3,280-3,300 (confluences)
Resistance Zone: $3,375-3,390 (proven strong)
Ichimoku: Price approaching cloud support
TECHNICAL INDICATORS MATRIX
Momentum Indicators
RSI (4H): 42 (Neutral-Bearish)
RSI (1H): 35 (Oversold approaching)
Stochastic: %K: 28, %D: 35 (Oversold)
Williams %R: -75 (Strong oversold)
Trend Indicators
MACD (4H): Bearish crossover pending
ADX: 28 (Moderate trend strength)
Parabolic SAR: $3,365 (Sell signal if broken)
Volume Indicators
OBV: Declining (distribution pattern)
Volume Rate of Change: Negative
Accumulation/Distribution: Slight distribution
KEY SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVELS (24H)
Immediate Resistance Levels
R1: $3,365 (Previous support turned resistance)
R2: $3,375 (Major psychological & Gann resistance)
R3: $3,390 (Recent swing high)
R4: $3,410 (Extended resistance)
Critical Support Levels
S1: $3,330 (Immediate support)
S2: $3,300 (Psychological & Fibonacci)
S3: $3,285 (Major harmonic & Gann target)
S4: $3,260 (Extended support)
24-HOUR TRADING SCENARIOS
Scenario 1: Bearish Breakdown (60% Probability)
Trigger: Break below $3,330 with volume
Target 1: $3,300-3,310
Target 2: $3,285-3,290
Extended Target: $3,260-3,270
Stop Loss (Shorts): Above $3,370
Scenario 2: Range-Bound Consolidation (25% Probability)
Range: $3,320-3,375
Strategy: Fade extremes
Buy Zone: $3,320-3,330
Sell Zone: $3,365-3,375
Breakout Confirmation: Volume spike
Scenario 3: Bullish Reversal (15% Probability)
Trigger: Break above $3,375 with volume
Target 1: $3,390-3,400
Target 2: $3,410-3,420
Invalidation: Below $3,285
RISK FACTORS & CATALYSTS (24H)
Bearish Catalysts
US Dollar strength continuation
Risk-off sentiment from geopolitical tensions
Profit-taking ahead of weekend
Technical breakdown confirmation
Bullish Catalysts
Safe-haven demand surge
US Dollar weakness
Central bank buying speculation
Technical oversold bounce
High-Impact Events (Next 24H)
Asian market opening sentiment
US Dollar Index movement
Cryptocurrency correlation effects
Weekend gap analysis
TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS (24H)
For Scalpers (5M-15M)
Strategy: Fade bounces to resistance
Entry: $3,355-3,365 area
Target: $3,335-3,340
Stop: $3,375
Risk/Reward: 1:2
For Swing Traders (1H-4H)
Primary Setup: Short on retracement
Entry Zone: $3,350-3,360
Target 1: $3,300
Target 2: $3,285
Stop Loss: $3,385
Conservative Approach
Wait for: Clear breakdown below $3,330
Entry: $3,325 (confirmation)
Target: $3,285-3,290
Stop: $3,345
CONFLUENCE FACTORS
Bearish Confluence at $3,285
Harmonic Bat pattern completion (88.6% level)
Gann Square of Nine critical angle
Elliott Wave 3 = 1.618 × Wave 1 target
Fibonacci 78.6% retracement level
Previous significant support area
Wyckoff markdown initial target
Resistance Confluence at $3,375
Gann 90-degree angle resistance
Harmonic pattern resistance
Elliott Wave corrective high
Previous breakout level
Psychological round number
FINAL 24H FORECAST SUMMARY
Expected Price Action: Controlled decline toward $3,285-3,300 support zone with potential for brief consolidation before further weakness.
Primary Targets (Downside):
First: $3,300-3,310
Second: $3,285-3,290
Extended: $3,260-3,270
Key Invalidation: Sustained break above $3,375 would shift bias bullish toward $3,390-3,410.
Risk Management: Position sizing should be conservative due to high volatility expectations and weekend gap risks.
Probability Assessment:
60% - Bearish scenario
25% - Sideways consolidation
15% - Bullish reversal
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Gold trading involves substantial risk. Always use proper risk management and never risk more than you can afford to lose.
Volume profile resistance
Monday market forecast, pay attention to the 3339 retracement📰 News information:
1. The Trump administration puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates
2. The continued impact of tariffs and the responses of various countries
📈 Technical Analysis:
This week's basic judgment and forecast on the gold market trend were consistent, but on Friday, the overall gold fluctuations were not large. The overall trend of the daily line fluctuated around 3345, and the 3345 line also became a short-term long-short watershed. Although prices are likely to rise more easily than fall in the short term, it should be noted that the three-month adjustment cycle is coming to an end while the fundamentals of the bull market have not changed. It is recommended that you focus on preventing risks from short position operations next week. At the same time, the overall strong shock pattern, the anti-pulling momentum has not reached the top suppression position, and the area around 3339 below is the previous intensive trading area, which constitutes a certain support in the short term. If the market fails to effectively break below next week, it will greatly boost the bullish momentum, and it is not ruled out that there will be a possibility of refreshing the high point near 3380 next week.
On the whole, the short-term focus next week is the 3345-3335 area below. If it falls back to this point, you can consider arranging long orders. The short-term target is 3355-3365, and the strong trend is expected to continue to touch 3375-3385.
🎯 Trading Points:
BUY 3345-3335
TP 3355-3365-3375-3385
In addition to investment, life also includes poetry, distant places, and Allen. Facing the market is actually facing yourself, correcting your shortcomings, confronting your mistakes, and strictly disciplining yourself. I hope my analysis can help you🌐.
TVC:GOLD PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD
SILVER: Short Trade with Entry/SL/TP
SILVER
- Classic bearish setup
- Our team expects bearish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short SILVER
Entry Point - 38.213
Stop Loss - 38.700
Take Profit - 37.395
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
Gold. 3310 reaction & will Buyers reach their remaining targets?Hi traders and investors!
The 3310 level worked out perfectly. We can see a familiar buy pattern forming.
If the buyer fails to push the price higher and the seller returns to the 3310 level, it's likely that the price will continue to decline on the daily timeframe toward the next nearest targets — 3244, or more likely, 3154.
For now, however, we still expect the buyer to pursue the remaining unmet targets at 3393 and 3403.
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis concept (IA).
Wishing you profitable trades!
XAUUSDgold has played over a week and finally took a long as we know it will fly on wednesday but trap with seller.. i am looking for continue long on gold, as i have drw simple line reason is clear w pattern,, and the (bos) .. lets see is it flying without fvg, or lit a bit to fill the fuel..what are your thought let me know in the comment.
SILVER Massive Short! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
SILVER looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 38.213 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
My Stop Loss - 38.708
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 37.413
About Used Indicators:
The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long and short fluctuations, the market is waiting for a break📰 News information:
1. Powell responds to White House issues
2. Will other countries impose reciprocal sanctions on tariffs?
📈 Technical Analysis:
Although the MACD indicator of the gold hourly line formed a golden cross, the market reached a high of around 3361, and the RSI indicator was close to the overbought area, so we need to be cautious about corrections. From the 4H chart, the MACD second golden cross is on the zero axis. Currently, we are paying attention to the moving average SMA5 near 3343, and the SMA60 support line 3332. If the 4H upward trend falls back, we need to go long. At present, gold is still running above, and there is no good participation point in the short term, but on the whole, we should pay attention to the support of 3345-3332 below, and we can consider going long if it retreats and stabilizes. We continue to pay attention to the resistance pressure of 3375-3385 above, and we can try to go short if it does not break.
🎯 Trading Points:
SELL 3375-3385
TP 3365-3355
BUY 3345-3332
TP 3365-3375-3385
In addition to investment, life also includes poetry, distant places, and Allen. Facing the market is actually facing yourself, correcting your shortcomings, facing your mistakes, and exercising strict self-discipline. I share free trading strategies and analysis ideas every day for reference by brothers. I hope my analysis can help you.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
XAU/USD | First LONG to $3345, Then a Potential DROP Below $3300By analyzing the gold chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that last night the price first tapped into the $3340 level, showing an initial push up to $3352. However, the drop intensified soon after, breaking the $3340 resistance and, according to the second scenario, falling to $3310. Upon reaching this key demand level, buying pressure kicked in, pushing the price back up to $3325. Now, the key question is whether gold can hold the $3310 support. If this level holds, we can expect a rise toward $3331 as the first target and $3345 as the second. After this move, a rejection from the $3345 area could trigger another drop, possibly pushing gold below $3300. So, first LONG, then SHORT!
THE LATEST VIDEO ANALYSIS :
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
GOLD: Short Trade Explained
GOLD
- Classic bearish pattern
- Our team expects retracement
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Sell GOLD
Entry - 3354.53
Stop - 3357.9
Take - 3345.9
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
End of week update following up on yesterday’s 1H chart outlook.
✅ 3353 was hit and respected to the pip, just as we mapped out and highlighted yesterday.
We saw the EMA5 cross and lock above 3328, confirming continuation.
The market respected structure beautifully
Rejections gave us clean dip buying entries
EMA5 methodology guided our execution
High probability Goldturn levels played out exactly as planned
Our discipline and patience were rewarded, yet again. Another strong end to the week.
We will now come back Sunday with a full multi timeframe analysis to prepare for next week’s setups, including updated views on the higher timeframes, EMA alignments, and structure expectations going forward.
Thanks again for all your likes, comments, and follows.
Wishing you all a fantastic weekend!!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Bear-Trap armed: Gold ticks 4 / 5 boxes - waiting for the spark1️⃣ Why the 2020 déjà-vu is EVEN louder
2025 (now) 2020 (pre-rally)
TradingView ideas still bearish 💬
> 70 % 60 % bearish
Managed-money net-longs ≈ 115 k
-35 % from Apr. –25 % from peak
+ $741 m PM-ETF inflow Record IN-flows
G/S ratio 87 (< 90) Fell to 95
S&P keeps making highs Ditto
2️⃣ What’s still different
Real 10-y TIPS yield +0.7 % vs -1 % in 2020 → smaller monetary tail-wind.
Gold is already at an infl-adj. record – expect a short & sharp squeeze, not a fresh multi-year super-cycle (yet).
3️⃣ Checklist – updated
Signal Status 18 Jul Comment
———————————————————
Gold DAILY close ≥ $3 200–3 250 YES – $3 354 ✔
G/S ratio < 90 YES – 87 ✔
CFTC net-longs < 150 k YES – ~115 k ✔
ETF flows turn positive. YES – $741 m ✔
Equity stress (VIX > 25 or SPX −5 %) NOT YET – VIX 16.5 ✖
4 / 5 boxes = 99 % primed. One spark missing.
4️⃣ What could light the fuse
Date Potential trigger Why it matters
22 Jul Mega-tech Q2 earnings (NVDA/AMD) Any guidance miss → SPX wobble
30 Jul FOMC Fed holds but sounds dovish USD dump + yield spike risk
1 Aug Trump s “reciprocal” duties Imported-inflation scare → VIX pop
Early Aug. DXY crashes < 96 in < 5 days. Disorderly USD slide = funding stress
Hit ≥ 2 of: DXY < 96, VIX > 25, SPX -5 % or HY-spread +75 bp → final ✔.
Bottom line
The bear-trap thesis aged well: sentiment, positioning, ETFs, and G/S ratio have already clicked bullish.
Only equity-market stress is missing. A fast USD slide or a tariff shock right after a neutral Fed is the most likely detonator.
Stay nimble: Collect premium inside $3 250-3 400 while volatility sleeps – but keep alarms on VIX 25 and DXY 96. One red headline could still launch the squeeze.
Disclaimer: Educational opinion, not investment advice. Futures & CFD trading is risky – do your own research and consult a professional.
1 minute ago